Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A group of teenagers bought, in total, 25 items of clothing at two shops, Ace Gear
and Boo Teak.
The following table shows how many tops, jeans and sweaters were bought at each of the
two shops.
Tops
Jeans
Sweaters
Ace Gear
Boo Teak
is a top;
(1)
(ii)
(iii)
(b)
(c)
Given that the chosen item is not a top, find the conditional probability that it was
bought from Boo Teak.
(2)
(Total 7 marks)
Page 1
Q2.
On any day when Gary travels to work, he uses one of three options: his car only, a bus
only or both his car and a bus. The probability that he uses his car, either on its own or
with a bus, is 0.6. The probability that he uses both his car and a bus is 0.25.
(a)
Calculate the probability that, on any particular day when Gary travels to work, he:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
uses a bus.
(3)
(b)
On any day, the probability that Larry travels to work with Gary is 0.9 when Gary
uses his car only, is 0.7 when Gary uses both his car and a bus, and is 0.3 when
Gary uses a bus only.
(i)
Calculate the probability that, on any particular day when Gary travels to work,
Larry travels with him.
(4)
(ii)
Assuming that option choices are independent from day to day, calculate, to
three decimal places, the probability that, during any particular week (5 days)
when Gary travels to work every day, Larry never travels with him.
(2)
(Total 12 marks)
Page 2
Q3.Roger is an active retired lecturer. Each day after breakfast, he decides whether the
weather for that day is going to be fine (F), dull (D) or wet (W). He then decides on only
one of four activities for the day: cycling (C), gardening (G), shopping (S) or relaxing (R).
His decisions from day to day may be assumed to be independent.
The table shows Rogers probabilities for each combination of weather and activity.
Weather
Fine (F) Dull (D) Wet (W)
Cycling (C)
0.30
0.10
Gardening (G)
0.25
0.05
Shopping (S)
0.10
0.05
Relaxing (R)
0.05
0.10
Activity
(a)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
not to relax, given that he had decided that it was going to be dull;
(v)
(b)
Calculate the probability that, on a particular Saturday and Sunday, Roger decided
that it was going to be fine and decided on the same activity for both days.
(3)
(Total 12 marks)
Page 3
Q4.
(a)
Find:
(i)
P(F);
(ii)
P(F
(iii)
P(S);
(iv)
P(F | S).
S);
(5)
(b)
The probability that a person selected at random from a large population has the
disease is 0.2.
(i)
Four people are selected at random from a large population. Find the
probability that at least one of these four people has the disease.
(2)
(ii)
Of the people suffering from this disease, 90% give a positive reaction to the
test designed to detect the disease, whereas 15% of the people who are not
suffering from the disease also give a positive reaction to the test.
Calculate the probability that a person who gives a positive reaction to the test
does not have the disease.
(4)
(Total 11 marks)
Page 4
Page 5
M1.
(a)
(i)
P (top) =
B1
1
(ii)
P (from BT) =
B1
1
(iii)
(b)
, so independent
M1A1
2
(c)
Cond prob =
M1 for
OE
M1A1
2
[7]
Page 6
M2.
P(C) = 0.6
{P(C only) = 0.35
(a)
(i)
P(C B) = 0.25
P(B only) = 0.4}
In (a), ratios (eg 4: 10) are only penalised by
1 mark at first correct answer
(ii)
(iii)
P(B) = (i) + p
with p < 0.6
Can be implied by correct answer
M1
= (i) + 0.25
Can be implied by correct answer
A1
= 0.65
CAO; or equivalent
A1
OR
P(B) = 1 (ii)
Can be implied by correct answer
(M2)
Page 7
= 0.65
(A1)
OR
1 = P(C) + P(B) P(C B)
Can be implied by correct answer
(M1)
Thus P(B) = 1 (0.6 0.25)
Can be implied by correct answer
(A1)
= 0.65
CAO; or equivalent
(A1)
3
(b)
P(L | G ) = 0.9
P(L | G ) = 0.7
P(L | G ) = 0.3
C
CB
(i)
P(G L)
(a)(ii) 0.9
(0.315)
Follow through or correct
M1
0.25 0.7
(0.175)
M1
Page 8
CAO
A1
4
(ii)
Probability = {1 (b)(i)}
Allow 5 {1 (b)(i)}
5
M1
= 0.39 = 0.009
AWRT (0.00902)
5
A1
2
[12]
M3.(a)
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
P(C | F) =
=
M1
30 / 55 or 6 / 11
CAO
(6 / 11)
or
(0.54 to 0.55) or (54% to 55%)
AWFW
(0.54545)
Page 9
A1
(2)
(iv)
P(R | D) =
Correct numerator
M1
Correct denominator
M1
25 / 30 or 5 / 6
CAO
(5 / 6)
or
(0.83 to 0.834) or (83% to 83.4%)
AWFW
(0.83333)
A1
(3)
(v)
P(F | C) =
Correct expression
M1
25 / 60 or 5 / 12
CAO
(5 / 12)
or
(0.416 to 0.42) or (41.6% to 42%)
AWRT
(0.41667)
A1
(2,3)
9
(b)
M1
Page 10
A1
1525 / 10000 or 305 / 2000 or 61 / 400
CAO
or
(0.1525)
(0.152 to 0.153) or (15.2% to 15.3%)
AWFW
A1
3
[12]
M4.
(a)
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(b)
(i)
M1
(or 59.0%)
A1
Page 11
(ii)
P(+ve response) =
(0.2 0.9) + (0.8 0.15)
M1
= 0.3
A1
P(not suffering | +ve response) =
(0.8 0.15) / 0.3
M1
= 0.12 / 0.3 = 0.4 or 2/5 (or 40%)
A1
4
[11]
Page 12
E1.
Once again part (a) was answered very well, and the conditional probability in part (c)
was often found correctly by clear-thinking candidates. Despite this, virtually no candidate
was able to deduce in part (b) that the two events were independent.
E2.
Whilst a not insignificant proportion of candidates scored full or almost full marks,
many candidates found this question difficult; this despite its similarity to a question on a
recent paper. Most candidates answered part (a)(i) correctly but then in parts (a)(ii) and
(iii) often multiplied two probabilities. Similarly, responses in part (b)(i) often involved
multiplying together three probabilities rather than two.
However, where better progress was made, candidates often scored 1 mark for each of
(a)(ii) 0.9) and (0.25 0.7) but not for ((a)(iii) 0.3) since it required ({(a)(iii) 0.25}
0.3). Such candidates often also scored 1 of the 2 marks available in part (b)(ii) for the use
of (1 (b)(i)) .
5
E3.This fairly standard probability question posed major difficulties to the weaker students
whereas the stronger students scored high marks often with an apparent minimum of
effort. Almost all students answered part (a)(i) correctly with slightly fewer scoring the
mark in part (a)(ii) through the use of multiplication instead of addition. The use of
conditional probability to answer parts (a)(iii) to (v) was beyond many students and it was
not unusual to see repeated answers of 0.25 or 0.30. Of those students who scored very
few marks in part (a), many were then able to make a sensible and often correct attempt
at part (b). Whilst many students identified the need for (0.302 + 0.252), this was
sometimes spoilt by the introduction of 0.55, 0.551 or 2 as a multiplier.
Page 13
E4.
The main issue is that candidates either like and understand probability concepts and
achieve full marks on this type of question or, simply leave the question out or make little
effort as they dont feel confident with the topic. Those who have a go find the conditional
probability hard.
Page 14