International Journal of Environmental Technologies

May 2015, Vol-01, Issue-03, pp.:1-3

Carthage Science Publishing
www.cs-publishing.com

FUTURE ENERGY MIX SCENARIOS FOR

THE UNITED STATES
Naci Kalkan1,*
1

Bitlis Eren University, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Energy Institute, Bitlis 13000,Turkey
*

Contact author: nacikalkan@gmail.com

carbon emission rises 50 percent above from 2000

to 2035 [3].

Abstract The focus of this study is to describe United

States energy supply and usage between 2010 and 2035. Some
base scenarios (Oil and Gas, Technology Assessment) are
explained

with

basic

analysis.

Furthermore,

new

developments of the energy sector are demonstrated in more

detail. This report also includes some evaluations and
discussions in the following pages. The general purpose of the
research is to find and analyze alternative sources for energy
production to United States` future.
Index Terms Energy scenarios, technology assessments, oil
and gas, fuel cell, hydrogen, US future energy scenarios,
alternative energy sources, renewable energy.

I. INTRODUCTION
In today`s world, energy is one of the most important
source for the universe. It is utilized many fundamental
areas such as light for the cities, power for vehicles.
Basically, humankind requires energy for everything in
daily times [1]. In the global world, fossil fuels such as oil,
coal are used to produce energy primarily. Some studies
show that such sources reserves will be depleted in next 50
years.
Furthermore, fossil fuels cause environmental
pollution with releasing greenhouse gases. Additionally,
population growth has been increasing day by day that
affects increasing the world`s energy demands
proportionally [2].
For this reason, some future energy scenarios have been
discussed to supply energy demand. There are some another
reasons to force these scenarios;
Usage of land
Technology
development,
marketing
and
environmental protection.
Limited energy sources (dependence on energy
import)
Increasing population
Basically, two base case scenarios are;
Oil and Gas, a scenario which provides enough oil
and gas at low prices. In this scenario, although
energy consumption increases rapidly, energy
prices are lower than previous time. However,

Technology Assessments, a scenario which is

provided low carbon emissions and high energy
efficiency with new energy technology applications
such as fuel cells and hydrogen. In this scenario,
while energy consumption increases, the carbon
emission rise only 15 percent at 2035 [3].

These two scenarios, which are not forecasts and

predictions, provide alternative views of the US future
energy in urgent times.
II. OIL AND GAS
In recent years, oil and gas prices have risen sharply in
the US as a result of increasing population, rising demand
for electricity and fossil fuels. In addition to this, the amount
of carbon emissions grows from approximately 1560 million
metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTC) in 2000 to almost
3000 MMTC in 2035 [4].
On the other hand, presently, Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) utilizes nearly 4
million barrels oil per day from Iraq. Nevertheless, some
non-OPEC producers such as Russia and Mexico produce
and sale low prices oil to US. This action starts to
competition between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, so
oil prices decline to less than $24 per barrel [5].
In the same way, generating electricity from natural gas
increases in the US. Normally, electricity prices rise
dramatically with the increasing cost of natural gas that
reaches about $2.84 per thousand cubic feet in 2015 and
continue to rise up about $4.21 per thousand cubic feet by
2035. Nonetheless, some natural gas negotiations might be
done with Mexican and Canadian governments to export
natural gas for US supply. Furthermore, once the federal
government encourages exploring natural gas in Arctic and
on federal land in the Rockies. Thus, North American gas
supply, which increases from around 23 quads in 2000 to 40
quads in 2020, might be obtained [6].
In this scenario (see Table 2.1), new oil and natural gas
producers as Canada and regions enter the global market.
Hence, competition, tension and pressure increase among
these new players and oil and gas prices usually decreases.

Naci Kalkan, IJETech, 2015, Vol(1)-Issue(3)

TABLE 2.1- TIMELINE FOR OIL AND GAS BASE CASE

2005-2010
2005-2015

2015

-World oil price falls to about $24 per barrel as a result of

competition
-Natural gas exploration in North America
-New gas resource fields are found and distribution increases
with investment

2020

-Natural gas prices approximately $2.84 per thousand cubic

feet
- US natural gas consumption goes up to 40 quads

2035

-Natural gas prices climb to around $4.21

III. TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS

New energy technologies such as, fuel cell and hydrogen
applications provide new export marketing for US producers
and protect environment. However, carbon emission
increases by 15 percent in technology assessment, from
around 1500 MMTC in 2000 to almost 1800 MMTC in
2035 [6]. This scenario gives some technologic applications.
1.

Fuel Cell

Basically, a fuel cell is an energy conversion device such

as battery that converts the chemical energy to electricity;
water and heat (see Fig. 1. below). One of the best cities for
promotion of fuel cell in US is California that is also
encouraged by the investment of stationary fuel cell in both
combined heat and power (CHP) and electricity supply
applications.

TABLE 3.1- HGH TEMPERATURE FUEL CELL-THER

COMPONENTS AND CHARECTERSTCS
Fuel Cell
Type

Molten
Carbonate

Solid
Oxide

2.

Electrolyte
Molten
mixture of
alkali
metal
carbonates
Oxide ion
conducting
ceramic

Operating
Temperature

650 C

1000 C

Electrical
Efficiency

55%

65%

Fuel
Oxidant
Natural
gas, bio
gas,
coal, air
Natural
gas, bio
gas,
coal, air

Energy
Output

2 MW

100
KW

Hydrogen Economy

Usage of hydrogen grows 25 fold between 2020 and

2035. Nowadays, in US hydrogen might be extracted from
fossil fuels and water with electrolysis. Hopefully, by 2035
hydrogen-rich fuel-gas, which is produced with gasification
of coal, is used on fuel cell to generate electricity and
vehicles instead of oil.
Furthermore, the hydrogen-rich fuel-gas is utilized with
combined-cycle turbines that are commonly built in rural
areas to become reliable and then products (pure-hydrogen)
are distributed with pipe for loading electric centers in
Midwest. By 2035, hydrogen production, storage and
distribution will reach almost all regions of the United
States, especially in the West, Midwest and Appalachia [8].
In technology assessment (Table 3.2), innovations and new
combined applications are used to decrease electricity prices
and supply heat and power for US demand.

2010

20152010
2035

TABLE 3.2- TIMELINE FOR TECHNOLOGY

ASSESSMENT BASE CASE
-CHP systems provide electricity to 13% of
the grow in electricity demand at 2000. (95 TWh in a year)
-Fuel cells combined to microturbines
are introduced in CHP systems to generate electricity and heat.
-Hydrogen production, storage and distribution
for West, Midwest and Appalachia

IV. EVALUATIONS AND CONCLUSION

Figure 1- Generic Hydrogen Fuel Cell Operation and 250 kW Stationary

Fuel Cell Power plant

After 2010, High temperature fuel cells (Table 3.1) are used
with micro-turbines to provide heat and power in many
hotels, schools and hospitals. After that, large scale new
CHP systems, which generate nearly 95 terawatt-hours
(TWh) per year, are installed. Probably, these CHP systems
will contribute around 1600 TWh per year electricity by
2035 [7].

The both scenarios, oil-gas and technology assessment,

illustrate the US future energy situation is not catastrophic.
Firstly, some new regions as federal land and countries,
which have oil and natural gas with low prices, might
provide US energy demands. It is necessary that some
negotiations should be done with said countries.
In addition to this, federal governments should remove
restrictions to work on federal land for natural gas.
Furthermore, the second plan could be implemented to
supply energy demand and decrease carbon emission. Also,
energy technology applications are generally environmental
friendly. It can be clearly seen that both scenarios are useful
and reasonable to supply US future energy demand until
2035.

Naci Kalkan, IJETech, 2015, Vol(1)-Issue(3)

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