Residents of Ukraine
September 7-21, 2015
Detailed Methodology
The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
Data was collected throughout Ukraine (except the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) between
September 7-21, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at respondents homes.
The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative
for the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement. In addition, 633 respondents were also
surveyed from the Zakarpattia region. Please refer to the next slide for information on how the Zakarpattia polling was
conducted.
Multistage probability sampling method was used with random route and next birthday selection procedures.
Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All regions
of Ukraine were surveyed except the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.
Stage two: selection of the settlements towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the
size
City more than one million residents
City 500,000-999,000 residents
City 100,000-499,000 residents
The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Detailed Methodology
Zakarpattia Oversample
Data was collected throughout the Zakarpattia region between September 7-21, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at
respondents homes.
The sample consisted of 633 permanent residents of the Zakarpattia region, aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is
representative of the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement.
Multistage probability sampling method was used with random route and next birthday selection procedures.
Stage one: region territory was divided into 18 administrative districts (13 districts, 4 cities of regional
subordination and the regional center). The survey was conducted in all districts.
Stage two: selection of the settlements towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the
size
City 100,000-499,000 residents
City 50,000-99,000 residents
City to 50,000 residents
Village
Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the
share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.
Stage three: primary sampling units were described.
The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 3.9 percent.
Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
Geographical Key
Zakarpattia
Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents
of the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea were not included in this poll.
Interest is High in
October 25 Local Elections
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next local elections*?
Very likely
Somewhat likely
September 2015
Somewhat unlikely
36%
July 2015
39%
29%
0%
10%
Very unlikely
6%
36%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Difficult to answer
11%
60%
70%
12%
17%
80%
6%
8%
90%
100%
6
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next local elections*?
(by region)
Very likely
Somewhat likely
West
Somewhat unlikely
Very unlikely
45%
Center
40%
36%
South
10%
6%
36%
29%
0%
30%
40%
50%
5%
60%
70%
7%
13%
10%
41%
20%
5%
39%
33%
East
Difficult to answer
4%
6%
18%
13%
80%
3%
12%
90%
100%
7
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next local elections*?
(by age)
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Somewhat unlikely
41%
10%
6%
38%
31%
0%
6%
41%
20%
Difficult to answer
39%
34%
Very unlikely
30%
40%
50%
15%
6%
60%
70%
10%
7%
14%
80%
5%
8%
90%
100%
8
Solidarnist Party
13%
Batkivshchyna
11%
Samopomich
11%
Opposition Bloc
11%
Radical Party
7%
People's Front
1%
Right Sector
6%
Svoboda
5%
Civic Position
4%
Left Opposition
1%
Strong Ukraine
1%
UKROP
1%
1%
Peoples Control
1%
Vidrodzhennia
1%
United Center
1%
Other
2%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
9
CENTRAL
WEST
17%
Samopomich
12%
Solidarnist Party
Radical Party
8%
7%
Batkivshchyna
8%
Samopomich
Civic Position
8%
Right Sector
Radical Party
6%
Svoboda
Svoboda
6%
Civic Position
3%
United Center
4%
4%
7%
10%
16%
13%
Difficult to answer
0%
5%
Other
10%
7%
Opposition Bloc
6%
Other
12%
Solidarnist Party
9%
Right Sector
14%
Batkivshchyna
17%
Difficult to answer
20%
0%
10%
20%
10
EAST
SOUTH
14%
Opposition Bloc
Solidarnist Party
8%
Samopomich
8%
17%
Opposition Bloc
8%
Solidarnist Party
6%
Batkivshchyna
4%
Radical Party
Svoboda
3%
Right Sector
2%
Vidrodzhennia
2%
UKROP
2%
Civic Position
2%
5%
Samopomich
4%
Strong Ukraine
3%
12%
Other
8%
Other
Batkivshchyna
17%
24%
0%
20%
34%
Difficult to answer
16%
Difficult to answer
40%
0%
20%
40%
11
Difficult to answer
Wrong direction
80%
71%
72%
70%
69%
66%
72%
67%
68%
64%
58%
60%
52%
51%
48%
50%
40%
34%
30%
30%
24%
20%
20%
16%
16%
14%
18%
18%
10%
29%
13%
13%
14%
15%
15%
18%
17%
18%
18%
20%
15%
13%
17%
15%
0%
November
2011
March
2012
March
2014
13
Somewhat approve
Strongly disapprove
35%
September 2014 3%
Somewhat disapprove
35%
14%
Difficult to answer
48%
6%
49%
6%
36%
37%
9%
April 2014
6%
33%
24%
26%
11%
March 2014
6%
32%
24%
26%
11%
February 2014
2% 11%
0%
10%
30%
20%
30%
50%
40%
50%
60%
70%
8%
80%
90%
100%
14
September 2015
Somewhat approve
4%
20%
July 2015 3%
21%
September 2014
0%
13%
19%
33%
20%
40%
50%
10%
24%
20%
30%
8%
22%
36%
10%
6%
33%
40%
9%
Difficult to answer
40%
34%
11%
March 2014
Strongly disapprove
29%
15%
April 2014
Somewhat disapprove
11%
27%
60%
70%
11%
80%
90%
100%
15
September
2015
July 2015
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Difficult to answer
2% 11%
29%
54%
5%
1% 10%
32%
52%
6%
September
2014
13%
April 2014
35%
16%
March 2014
36%
12%
0%
27%
16%
34%
10%
20%
30%
15%
24%
17%
40%
50%
10%
8%
27%
60%
70%
80%
9%
90%
100%
16
Somewhat favorable
Have not heard the name
5%
22%
2%
3%
1% 16%
7%
5%
7%
7%
1% 9%
1% 7%
6%
18%
19%
24%
30%
13%
17%
36%
8%
2% 13%
24%
48%
20%
<1% 7%
55%
33%
<1% 5%
61%
27%
10%
2% 11%
53%
1% 4% 19%
0%
46%
40%
17%
10%
9%
3% 10%
28%
22%
13%
46%
49%
22%
14%
21%
25%
17%
1% 8%
4%
27%
19%
12%
12%
17%
25%
15%
12%
7%
33%
15%
16%
12%
38%
18%
21%
4%
24%
25%
16%
>1% 5%
35%
19%
22%
2%
27%
29%
>1% 5%
38%
59%
20%
30%
23%
9%
Somewhat unfavorable
Difficult to answer
12%
46%
40%
50%
60%
70%
9%
80%
90%
100%
17
Very high
11%
Somewhat high
18%
Somewhat low
30%
35%
Very low
Havent heard anything about
constitutional amendments
Difficult to answer/No answer
18
12%
27%
46%
19
13%
4%
Strongly approve
8%
41%
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Difficult to answer/No answer
34%
20
How would you evaluate your knowledge of the local elections law
which was approved by the Parliament in July?
>1%
Very high
8%
9%
Somewhat high
Somewhat low
23%
25%
Very low
Havent heard about new Local
Elections Law anything
Difficult to answer/No answer
35%
21
Improved somewhat
Worsened somewhat
Worsened a lot
September
<1% 2% 14%
2015
July 2015
September
2014
Difficult to answer
31%
<1% 2% 8%
51%
28%
1% 11%
0%
60%
29%
10%
20%
1%
30%
2%
2%
57%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
22
Improved somewhat
Worsened somewhat
September 2015 1% 2%
Worsened a lot
18%
34%
46%
September 2013
1% 9%
May 2013
1% 8%
1%
May 2012
14%
27%
15%
30%
39%
13%
34%
37%
20%
17%
30%
45%
10%
14%
30%
37%
November 2011 1% 6%
18%
36%
30%
3%
18%
31%
46%
9%
0%
29%
41%
14%
2%
22%
44%
March 2012 1% 6%
1%
40%
37%
February 2014 1% 8%
September 2012
55%
37%
March 2014 3%
1%
45%
29%
19%
April 2014 1% 4%
Difficult to answer
34%
40%
50%
60%
18%
70%
80%
90%
3%
2%
2%
1%
5%
3%
3%
2%
100%
23
September 2015
48%
July 2015
28%
41%
September 2014
March 2014
0%
10%
20%
7%
43%
30%
40%
50%
15%
17%
40%
34%
17%
14%
31%
38%
Difficult to answer
8%
30%
43%
April 2014
9%
60%
70%
80%
8%
15%
13%
90%
100%
25
September 2015
Other
57%
July 2015
17%
55%
September 2014
53%
March 2014
52%
February 2012
41%
September 2013
42%
May 2013
20%
9%
24%
36%
15%
10%
13%
6%
14%
27%
9%
37%
5%
37%
32%
14%
12%
17%
40%
September 2012
12%
14%
59%
April 2014
Difficult to answer
17%
5%
42%
14%
18%
6%
20%
May 2012
37%
41%
5%
17%
March 2012
36%
43%
4%
17%
November 2011
42%
0%
10%
20%
40%
30%
40%
50%
60%
3%
70%
80%
15%
90%
100%
26
Warm
Poland
Neutral
15%
Belarus
12%
European Union
11%
Cold
Very cold
Difficult to answer
43%
36%
45%
40%
35%
11%
37%
42%
Lithuania
11%
37%
43%
8%
Germany
7%
United States
36%
5%
32%
Slovakia
6%
29%
Hungary
5%
Romania
4%
Russia
2%
0%
7% 2% 2%
13%
4% >1% 5%
5% 1% 5%
58%
58%
30%
6% 1% 5%
26%
40%
50%
35%
60%
5% 1%
4% 1% 5%
56%
20%
20%
4% 1% 5%
54%
26%
10%
6% 1% 2%
40%
27%
15%
4% 1% 5%
49%
32%
Moldova
10% 2% 2%
46%
34%
9%
4% >1% 2%
37%
Georgia
Canada
4% >1% 2%
70%
80%
2%
90%
100%
27
15%
28%
3%
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
9%
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Difficult to answer/No answer
45%
29
If there are two candidates running for office and they have the
same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one
is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?
Would vote for the female candidate
Makes no difference to me
September 2015
21%
July 2015
17%
17%
0%
10%
57%
17%
20%
6%
60%
30%
40%
50%
60%
5%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30
September 2015
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
26%
July 2015
31%
22%
0%
10%
Strongly disagree
23%
30%
20%
30%
40%
21%
50%
60%
5%
5%
70%
15%
21%
80%
90%
100%
31
Somewhat agree
September 2015
Somewhat disagree
34%
July 2015
10%
16%
33%
20%
37%
29%
0%
Strongly disagree
30%
40%
50%
60%
16%
4%
70%
80%
4%
10%
18%
90%
100%
32
No
Difficult to answer
September 2015
79%
7%
July 2015
79%
10%
September 2014
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
13%
11%
12%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
7%
100%
33
The President
18%
10%
9%
Local government
1%
Other
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
35
15%
25%
3%
Definitely yes
Somewhat yes
8%
Somewhat no
Definitely no
49%
36
20%
15%
Definitely yes
Somewhat yes
7%
Somewhat no
Definitely not
Difficult to answer/No answer
18%
40%
37
32%
13%
12%
11%
8%
6%
3%
3%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
38
10%
21%
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
32%
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
20%
Difficult to answer
17%
39
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
12%
8%
0%
Strongly disapprove
29%
24%
24%
10%
20%
18%
33%
30%
40%
50%
Difficult to answer
15%
60%
70%
16%
20%
80%
90%
100%
40
63%
31%
28%
27%
26%
24%
20%
16%
12%
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
*In Ukraine, the term lustration refers to the exclusion from public office of civil servants who worked under Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovych for more than a year and civil servants who were active in the Communist Party of the Soviet
Union. They may be excluded for five to 10 years (Source: Kyiv Post).
41
Who do you think is to blame for all the armed clashes in the town
of Mukachevo*?
(No more than three answers)
54%
53%
Criminal groupings
33%
25%
24%
President of Ukraine
18%
13%
9%
2%
Russia
<1%
Other
1%
<1%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
*In July, armed clashes occurred in the town of Mukachevo between police and members of Right Sector. These involved
business disputes between local clans.
42
2%
<1%
2%
19%
Definitely yes
Somewhat yes
Somewhat no
Definitely not
Difficult to answer/No answer
77%
43
11%
Definitely yes
Somewhat yes
Somewhat no
Definitely no
Difficult to answer/No answer
89%
44
Other
95%
1%
<1%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
45
4%
46
50%
41%
3%
2%
1%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
*IRI tested this question in the wake of the violent clashes that occurred in Mukachevo this summer.
50%
60%
47
32%
27%
12%
5%
<1%
<1%
Never
23%
1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
48
48%
Western Ukraine
42%
Hungary
31%
Slovakia
17%
Russia
4%
3%
Romania
2%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
49
GENDER
Demographics
45%
Male
55%
Female
33%
AGE
18-35 years
25%
36-50 years
42%
EDUCATION
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT
HOME
46%
Ukrainian
32%
Russian
21%
1%
0%
Other
0%
25%
Secondary or lower
40%
Vocational
36%
Higher
26%
Worker
1%
Farmer
18%
OCCUPATION
White collar
1%
30%
5%
Student
8%
Housewife
Unemployed
6%
Other
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
50
Demographics
33%
24%
9%
RELIGION
Greek Catholic
Catholic
1%
Protestant
1%
2%
Other
6%
Atheist
23%
2%
SETTLEMENT
TYPE
69%
City
31%
Village
24%
REGIONS
West
31%
Center
South
22%
East
22%
0%
50%
100%
51
Demographics
20%
37%
We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but
we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit,
a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner.
31%
10%
1%
1%
0%
50%
52
Demographics
GENDER
Zakarpattia Oversample
47%
Male
53%
Female
37%
AGE
18-35 years
26%
36-50 years
38%
EDUCATION
LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT
HOME
75%
Ukrainian
1%
Russian
20%
2%
0%
2%
Other
25%
Secondary or lower
48%
Vocational
27%
Higher
22%
Worker
6%
Farmer
12%
OCCUPATION
White collar
5%
24%
6%
Student
11%
Housewife
10%
Unemployed
4%
Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
53
Demographics
Zakarpattia Oversample
20%
30%
35%
Greek Catholic
7%
RELIGION
Catholic
1%
Protestant
3%
Other
0%
Atheist
4%
1%
SETTLEMENT
TYPE
38%
City
62%
Village
0%
50%
100%
54
Demographics
Zakarpattia Oversample
8%
27%
51%
12%
0%
1%
0%
50%
100%
55