Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Interviews Conducted:
February 15-17, 2016
1.
2.
How likely is it that you will vote in the South Carolina presidential primary this month - will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote,
or definitely not vote? (IF DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY) Will you vote in the
Republican primary on February 20th or the Democratic on February 27th? (IF
ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic
primary?
-----Democratic---------Republican----(Already
(Already
Definitely Probably
voted)
Definitely
Probably
Voted)
15-17 Feb 16
74%
25
2
80
18
3
PAST TREND
5-8 Dec 15
73%
27
N/A
80
20
N/A
[Q5-7 IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1. IF DONT KNOW IN Q3, SKIP AND CODE
AS DONT KNOW]
5.
And which Republican would be your second choice? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if
you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q3. DO NOT
ACCEPT CHOICE FROM Q3]
First choice Second choice Without Trump
Without Cruz
Donald Trump
32%
9%
N/A
36%
Ted Cruz
19
16
26%
N/A
Marco Rubio
15
17
20
22
Ben Carson
9
11
14
12
Jeb Bush
9
11
12
11
John Kasich
6
10
10
7
(Other)
1
*
1
1
(None of the above)
1
10
6
2
(Dont know)
8
15
11
9
6.
And which of these candidates would you never support for the Republican nomination?
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES.
PROBE UNTIL NOT PRODUCTIVE:] Are there any others you would never support?
15-17 Feb 2016 5-8 Dec 2015
N=759
N=437
(Trump)
39%
24%
(Bush)
21
19
(Cruz)
19
8
(Kasich)
11
10
(Rubio)
11
6
(Carson)
6
7
(Graham)
N/A
18
(Paul)
N/A
10
(Christie)
N/A
9
(Fiorina)
N/A
8
(Huckabee)
N/A
7
(Pataki)
N/A
7
(Gilmore)
N/A
7
(Santorum)
N/A
5
(I would vote for any of
13
16
them/None/No one)
(Don't know)
7
10
7.
(Yes, Trump)
(Yes, Cruz)
(Yes, Rubio)
(Yes, Bush)
(Yes, Kasich)
(Yes, Carson)
(No)
(Don't know)
+/- 6%
+/- 4%
+/- 7.5%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 5.5%
Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
(Already voted
Republican)
(Already voted
Democratic)
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
(Not sure)
Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
(Already voted
Republican)
(Already voted
Democratic)
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
(Not sure)
Total
-
Men
-
Women
-
White
-
College
Degree
-
No
Degree
-
Vet
-
80%
83%
76%
79%
81%
78%
83%
18%
14%
21%
18%
15%
20%
11%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
6%
Total
-
Under
Age 45
-
45+
-
Under
$50k
-
$50k+
-
White
Evangel
-
Very
Cons
-
80%
75%
82%
76%
81%
81%
87%
18%
23%
15%
20%
17%
16%
9%
3%
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
4%
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
9%
9%
19%
6%
15%
32%
1%
1%
8%
Men
9%
6%
19%
9%
14%
35%
*%
1%
6%
Women
10%
11%
19%
4%
16%
28%
1%
1%
10%
White
10%
8%
19%
6%
16%
32%
1%
1%
8%
College
Degree
10%
8%
15%
9%
19%
31%
*%
1%
8%
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
9%
9%
19%
6%
15%
32%
1%
1%
8%
Under
Age 45
8%
9%
21%
7%
13%
31%
*%
11%
45+
10%
8%
18%
6%
16%
32%
1%
1%
7%
Under
$50k
12%
10%
26%
*%
14%
28%
1%
8%
$50k+
8%
9%
19%
8%
16%
33%
*%
1%
7%
No
Degree
9%
10%
25%
2%
11%
32%
1%
1%
8%
Vet
9%
6%
22%
6%
15%
37%
1%
4%
White
Evangel
10%
7%
23%
3%
17%
31%
*%
1%
6%
Very
Cons
7%
9%
31%
3%
14%
29%
1%
6%
Men
Women
White
College
Degree
No
Degree
Vet
Certain
May change
(Don't know)
74%
25%
1%
78%
21%
1%
70%
29%
1%
75%
25%
*%
78%
21%
1%
69%
30%
1%
80%
20%
-
Certain
May change
(Don't know)
Total
74%
25%
1%
Under
Age 45
70%
29%
1%
45+
76%
23%
1%
Under
$50k
72%
28%
1%
White
Evangel
76%
24%
1%
Very
Cons
79%
20%
1%
$50k+
75%
24%
1%
Total
Men
Women
White
College
Degree
No
Degree
Vet
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
11%
11%
16%
10%
17%
9%
*%
10%
15%
11%
10%
18%
11%
18%
10%
1%
11%
11%
11%
13%
14%
9%
15%
9%
10%
19%
12%
11%
16%
10%
17%
9%
*%
9%
15%
12%
11%
16%
13%
17%
8%
*%
10%
13%
10%
12%
16%
7%
17%
11%
*%
9%
17%
9%
14%
17%
11%
17%
11%
1%
10%
9%
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)
Total
11%
11%
16%
10%
17%
9%
*%
10%
15%
Under
Age 45
10%
13%
17%
7%
12%
11%
*%
8%
21%
45+
12%
10%
15%
12%
19%
9%
*%
11%
12%
Under
$50k
9%
13%
17%
9%
15%
9%
10%
19%
White
Evangel
12%
13%
20%
7%
18%
8%
8%
13%
Very
Cons
9%
14%
21%
5%
21%
9%
8%
13%
$50k+
12%
11%
17%
10%
19%
10%
*%
9%
11%
Total
13%
Men
13%
Women
13%
White
13%
College
Degree
11%
No
Degree
13%
Vet
15%
39%
6%
19%
11%
21%
11%
7%
36%
7%
21%
14%
23%
12%
6%
42%
5%
18%
9%
18%
11%
8%
38%
6%
19%
11%
21%
12%
7%
41%
7%
25%
12%
19%
12%
7%
37%
5%
13%
10%
24%
10%
8%
31%
5%
25%
16%
21%
13%
8%
Total
13%
Under
Age 45
10%
45+
14%
Under
$50k
12%
$50k+
13%
White
Evangel
15%
Very
Cons
16%
39%
6%
19%
11%
21%
11%
7%
41%
7%
18%
12%
18%
11%
7%
38%
6%
20%
10%
22%
11%
7%
43%
7%
15%
11%
22%
13%
6%
37%
6%
21%
11%
22%
12%
6%
39%
5%
13%
10%
21%
11%
8%
38%
4%
10%
10%
26%
13%
6%
(No)
(Yes, Trump)
(Yes, Carson)
(Yes, Cruz)
(Yes, Rubio)
(Yes, Bush)
(Yes, Kasich)
(Don't know)
Total
27%
47%
10%
28%
19%
17%
12%
17%
Men
30%
45%
12%
29%
21%
19%
13%
13%
Women
23%
48%
8%
26%
18%
15%
11%
20%
White
26%
47%
10%
28%
20%
17%
12%
17%
College
Degree
29%
46%
10%
30%
18%
15%
10%
16%
(No)
(Yes, Trump)
(Yes, Carson)
(Yes, Cruz)
(Yes, Rubio)
(Yes, Bush)
(Yes, Kasich)
(Don't know)
Total
27%
47%
10%
28%
19%
17%
12%
17%
Under
Age 45
32%
38%
7%
20%
13%
10%
6%
20%
45+
24%
51%
12%
32%
23%
21%
14%
15%
Under
$50k
22%
50%
9%
24%
19%
16%
11%
18%
$50k+
28%
47%
10%
29%
19%
17%
12%
15%
No
Degree
24%
48%
11%
25%
21%
19%
13%
18%
Vet
27%
48%
16%
34%
23%
22%
16%
14%
White
Evangel
22%
50%
10%
27%
20%
18%
13%
18%
Very
Cons
22%
54%
11%
27%
21%
19%
15%
16%