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  • Statistics & Performance

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    Radu Chibzui
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    This document discusses statistical analysis techniques for evaluating drilling costs and performance. It includes definitions and calculations for average, mode, median, variance, and standard deviation to analyze well costs. It also covers learning curve analysis to quantify a company's drilling performance over multiple wells. Learning curve analysis uses constants like potential (C1), learning rate (C2), and operational limit (C3) in an exponential function to predict future well times based on historical data. The document provides an example of learning curve analysis and constants, noting that a C2 between 0.45-0.8 indicates good performance and above 0.8 is excellent. It assigns a task to analyze well times and costs using these techniques.

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    6. Statistics & Performance

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    This document discusses statistical analysis techniques for evaluating drilling costs and performance. It includes definitions and calculations for average, mode, median, variance, and standard deviation to analyze well costs. It also covers learning curve analysis to quantify a company's drilling performance over multiple wells. Learning curve analysis uses constants like potential (C1), learning rate (C2), and operational limit (C3) in an exponential function to predict future well times based on historical data. The document provides an example of learning curve analysis and constants, noting that a C2 between 0.45-0.8 indicates good performance and above 0.8 is excellent. It assigns a task to analyze well times and costs using these techniques.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    10 views7 pages

    Statistics & Performance

    Uploaded by

    Radu Chibzui
    This document discusses statistical analysis techniques for evaluating drilling costs and performance. It includes definitions and calculations for average, mode, median, variance, and standard deviation to analyze well costs. It also covers learning curve analysis to quantify a company's drilling performance over multiple wells. Learning curve analysis uses constants like potential (C1), learning rate (C2), and operational limit (C3) in an exponential function to predict future well times based on historical data. The document provides an example of learning curve analysis and constants, noting that a C2 between 0.45-0.8 indicates good performance and above 0.8 is excellent. It assigns a task to analyze well times and costs using these techniques.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 7

    07.08.

    15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Further Calcula,ons

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Sta,s,cs Refresher
    Average:

    Mode:

    Most occurring number
    Median:

    Middle most number

    07.08.15

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Variance
    Numerical Value indica;ng to which extent values vary
    from the group mean

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Standard Devia,on
    Establish norms within your data range
    Enables detec;on of extraordinarily small/large values

    07.08.15

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Task #1 Well Cos,ng


    Given the table with the costs of 20 wells drilled in the
    same eld with approximately the same nal depth,
    determine the es;mated costs for the next two wells to
    be drilled in the eld.

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Task #1 Well Cos,ng


    Calcula2on Steps:

    Mean
    Devia;on about the mean
    Variance
    Standard Devia;on


    07.08.15

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Task #1 Well Cos,ng


    Using Excel commands:

    Use stdeva to obtain the standard devia;on
    Using Excel tools:

    Add in Data Analysis Tool
    Use the descrip;ve sta;s;cs tool

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Learning Curve Analysis


    Quan;fy a companys performance on a drilling
    campaign, based on a set of comparable well data
    Theory: drilling ;me in an area declines exponen;ally
    throughout succession of a campaign

    07.08.15

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Learning Curve Analysis


    tn is the total ;me to drill the nth well, and C1, C2 and C3
    are dened as the learning poten;al, learning rate and
    opera;onal limit. C1 implies a readiness, ability to be
    prepared, diculty of the area or technology. C2 relates
    to how fast the organiza;on learns and C3 is the level of
    performance for any company or contractor.

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Learning Curve Analysis


    160,0

    140,0

    120,0

    100,0

    80,0

    60,0

    40,0

    20,0

    0,0
    1

    3
    Days/Average Depth

    07.08.15

    Learn Curve Func;on

    10

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Learning Curve Analysis


    Company performance assessed via the constants
    C1, C2 and C3 can therefore be improved as a result of
    be[er ini;al well planning, more experienced sta, and/
    or be[er equipment.
    Key to this improvement is based on the informa;on
    and knowledge obtained from previous experiences.

    07.08.15

    11

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Learning Curve Analysis


    Example: C1, C2 and C3 are 7.1 days, 0.6 and 5.4 days,
    respec;vely. The next predicted ;me for this opera;on is 6.04
    days.
    On each new well drilled we are therefore trying to achieve the
    maximum drilling learning rate (C2) to reduce the gap between
    C3 (opera;onal limit). lyoho et al. (2005) revealed that
    organiza;ons with C2 between 0.45 and 0.8 show a good
    performance and that a C2 greater than 0.8 indicates an excellent
    performance. Analyzing our example: the learning rate (C2)
    needs to be improved and therefore the organiza;on must learn
    to capture experience and technology in such a way that it can be
    rapidly transferred to other opera;onal personnel (Bre[ and
    Millheim 1986).

    07.08.15

    12

    07.08.15

    Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

    Task #2 - Learning Curve Analysis

    07.08.15

    Well

    Original Days

    Original
    Depth

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6

    133
    112
    125
    81
    75
    83

    10500
    10800
    11000
    10600
    10500
    10700

    Cost/day
    C1
    C3
    C2

    USD 88,000
    55
    80
    0.6

    13

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