Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Mn
QUN TR TI CHNH
Chuyn 3
QUN TR RI RO
Gio vin hng dn:
BI VN TRNH
M000701
M000637
on Th Ngc Thy
M000706
on Vinh Thng
M000693
Nguyn Hng V
M000736
L Th Tin
M000713
Cn Th - 2013
MC LC
--------------------3.1 TNG QUAN V RI RO..................................................................Trang 1
3.1.1 Khi nim v ri ro.........................................................................Trang 1
3.1.2 Phn loi ri ro................................................................................Trang 1
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3.2 QUN TR RI RO.............................................................................Trang 2
3.2.1 Khi nim qun tr ri ro.................................................................Trang 2
3.2.2 Nhn dng cc loi ri ro................................................................Trang 2
3.2.2.1 Ri ro t gi (hay cn gi l ri ro ngoi hi)........................Trang 2
3.2.2.2 Ri ro tn dng.......................................................................Trang 5
3.2.2.3 Ri ro li sut.........................................................................Trang 5
3.2.3 Gii php phng nga ri ro Cc cng c....................................Trang 6
3.2.3.1 Hp ng quyn chn (Options)............................................Trang 6
3.2.3.2 Hp ng k hn v giao sau...............................................Trang 10
3.2.3.3 Hp ng hon i (Swap)..................................................Trang 13
3.3 TI TR RI RO...............................................................................Trang 13
3.3.1 Ti tr sau tn tht........................................................................Trang 13
3.3.1.1 Tin mt v u t ngn hn................................................Trang 13
3.3.1.2 N.........................................................................................Trang 13
3.3.1.3 Vn c phn.........................................................................Trang 14
3.3.2 Ti tr trc tn tht.....................................................................Trang 14
3.4. KT LUN........................................................................................Trang 18
.................................................................................................................................
1
NI DUNG
Chuyn 3
QUN TR RI RO
3.1 TNG QUAN V RI RO
3.1.1 Khi nim v ri ro
Ri ro l s khng chc chn, khng n nh, l s bin ng ca nhng
ci s xy ra trong tng lai ngoi mun ca con ngi v hiu theo ngha xu
c kh nng gy thit hi cho con ngi.
3.1.2 Phn loi ri ro
- Ri ro h thng: Ri ro h thng l mt dng ri ro thuc v bn cht
gn lin vi mi ngnh ngh kinh doanh nht nh, ngnh ngh no cng c ri
ro kinh doanh thuc v bn cht, hu ht ri ro kinh doanh l khng th phng
nga do khng th mua i bn li c.
- Ri ro phi h thng: Ri ro xy ra i vi mt cng ty hay mt ngnh
kinh doanh no , n c lp vi cc yu t nh tnh hnh kinh t, chnh tr hay
nhng yu t mang tnh cht h thng v nh hng n ton b chng khon
trn th trng.
- Ri ro ti chnh: Ri ro ti chnh va hm cc trng thi ri ro kit gi
ti chnh v cn ni ln nhng ri ro do doanh nghip s dng n by ti chnh,
s dng ngun vn vay trong kinh doanh.
- Ri ro kit gi ti chnh: nhy cm t cc nhn t gi c th trng
nh li sut, t gi, gi c hng ha v chng khong tc ng n thu nhp ca
doanh nghip c gi l ri ro kit gi ti chnh [4, trang 6]. Trong ri ro kit
gi ti chnh bao gm 03 loi:
+ Ri ro t gi
+ Ri ro tn dng
1
+ Ri ro li sut
Trong ni dung chuyn ny, nhm ch phn tch ri ro kit gi ti
chnh.
3.2 QUN TR RI RO
3.2.1 Khi nim qun tr ri ro
L xc nh mc ri ro m mt cng ty mong mun, nhn din mc
ri ro hin nay ca cng ty ang gnh chu v s dng cc cng c phi sinh
hoc cc cng c ti chnh khc iu chnh mc ri ro thc s mong
mun.
3.2.2 Nhn dng cc loi ri ro
3.2.2.1 Ri ro t gi (hay cn gi l ri ro ngoi hi)
Ri ro t gi l ri ro pht sinh do s bin ng t gi lm nh hng n
gi tr k vng trong tng lai. Ri ro t gi xy ra khi vic thanh ton c n
nh bng mt loi ngoi t no , m t gi bin ng s gy tn tht cho mt
trong hai pha tham gia thanh ton. T gi bin ng chu tc ng ca hai
phng din:
- nh hng ca cc nhn t bn ngoi: tnh hnh kinh t, th trng ti
chnh quc t v chnh sch can thip ca cc nc, cc chnh sch ny khng
nm trong tm khng ch can thip ca mt quc gia.
- S tng tc nhiu chiu ca chnh sch kinh t ti chnh tin t ca mi
nc. hnh thc biu hin tng hp v s tng tc ca hai phng din chnh l
s tng tc t quan h cung cu trn ngoi hi trn th trng.
Mt s yu t tc ng ln t gi:
- Trng thi cn cn thanh ton quc t.
- Sc mua ca cc n v tin t v tc lm pht cc nc hu quan.
- Mc chnh lch li sut gia cc nc, gia th trng tin t ni a v
th trng tin t quc t.
2
3.2.2.3 Ri ro li sut
Ri ro li sut l loi ri ro do s bin ng ca li sut gy ra. Loi ri ro
ny pht sinh trong quan h tn dng ca cc t chc tn dng theo t chc tn
dng c nhng khon i vay hoc cho vay theo li sut th ni.
Nu ngn hng i vay theo li sut th ni, khi li sut th trng tng
khin chi ph tr li ca ngn hng tng theo. Ngc li, nu ngn hng cho vay
theo li sut th ni, khi li sut th trng xung thp khin thu nhp li cho
vay ca ngn hng gim theo.
Ri ro li sut pht sinh khi ngn hng khng khp c gia li sut thu
c t ti sn sinh li v li sut chi ra cho ngun vn phi tr li.
Ri ro li sut c bit quan trng khi ngn hng huy ng vn thng qua
pht hnh tri phiu, hoc u t ti chnh kh ln, thi gian kh di v theo li
sut th trng.
Tng t, d khng thng xuyn bng ngn hng, hot ng ca cc
doanh nghip l khch hng ca ngn hng cng c th c ri ro li sut nu
doanh nghip khng khp c gia li sut thu v v chi ra t hot ng ti
chnh.
Ngoi ra, hot ng u t ti chnh ca doanh nghip cng tm n ri ro
li sut rt ln. Ri ro li sut trong hot ng u t, c bit l u t vo cc
ti sn ti chnh c thu nhp c nh nh tn phiu v tri phiu cc loi, th hin
ch gi c ca cc ti sn ny thay i khi li sut thay i.
3.2.3 Gii php phng nga ri ro Cc cng c
i ph vi ri ro, ngi ta to ra cc cng c qun tr ri ro, hay
c gi l cc sn phm ti chnh phi sinh. Sn phm phi sinh l mt sn
phm ti chnh m kt qu ca n c to ra t kt qu ca mt sn phm khc
(ti sn c s).
Cc sn phm phi sinh ph bin nht bao gm:
+ Hp ng quyn chn (Options)
6
+ Giao dch quyn chn kiu M cho php thc hin giao dch vo nhng
ngy lm vic hp php trong thi gian hiu lc ca hp ng.
a. Quyn chn mua (call option): l mt quyn chn mua ti sn mt
mc gi c nh gi l gi thc hin.
V d: vo ngy 10/11/2012, c phiu TAC c gi l 45.000/CP. Ngi
mua quyn chn mua k vng gi s tng trong thi gian ti nn s dng hp
ng quyn chn mua c mua c phiu vi gi 45.000/CP v thi gian
o hn l ngy 10/12/2012. Ph quyn chn l 2.000/CP. Trong khi ngi bn
quyn chn mua k vng gi gim. Ngi mua quyn chn mua c quyn mua
CP bt c lc no cho n ngy 10/12 mc gi 45.000/CP, v ngi bn
quyn chn mua phi bn CP ny cho ngi mua quyn bt c lc no ngi
mua quyn chn mua mun mua cho n ngy o hn hp ng.
Cc trng hp xy ra:
+ Gi CP gim thp hn 45.000/CP: ngi mua quyn s khng thc
hin quyn. Khi ngi mua quyn l 2.000/CP, v cng l li ca ngi
bn quyn chn mua. Nu ngi mua thc hin quyn s l nhiu hn, gm ph
v chnh lc do gim gi.
+ Gi CP = 45.000/CP: ngi mua quyn thc hin hoc khng thc
hin cng nh nhau, l khon ph 2.000/CP.
+ Gi CP t trn 45.000 47.000: ngi mua quyn s thc hin quyn,
v l t hn khon ph hoc ho vn khi gi l 47.000/CP
+ Gi CP t trn 47.000/CP: ngi mua quyn s thc hin quyn v c
li.
+ Chi ph b ra mua 1 CP: 45.000 (gi thc hin) + 2.000 (ph) =
47.000
= 1,9933
1 + 3*7,00%/12
12 triu
15
T ti tr
him
Nm nay
Cc nm
Nm nay
Cc nm
(2011)
ti
(2011)
ti
EN
12
Ph bo him
1,5
12
ng gp vo qu gi li
12
12
1,2
0,032
0,032
qu
Chi ph giao dch
0,05
Tin li trn qu gi li
0,072
10,5
12
10,79
11,968
2.000.000 2.000.000
2.000.000
(E)
S c phiu (m)
2.000.000
EPS (E/m)
Li sut mong i ca c ng
5,25
5,395
5,984
0,1
0,1
0,105
0,105
59,8
60
56,97
56,99
(kE)
Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn (MVE)
119,59
113,94
(Ngun: Cng ty Nh )
16
Nm nay
Cc nm ti
(2011)
EN
12
12
Ph bo him
ng gp vo qu gi li
Tin li trn phn tn tht vt qu
Chi ph giao dch
1,2
0,008
0,008
0,04
Tin li trn qu gi li
Thu nhp dng phn phi (E)
0,312
11,064
11,992
2.000.000
2.000.000
EPS (E/m)
5,532
5,996
0,105
0,105
57,211
57,1
S c phiu (m)
Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn (MVE)
114,421
(Ngun: Cng ty Nh )
3.4 KT LUN
Cho n nay, hot ng qun tr ri ro vn l mt trong hot ng quan trng
nht ca cc doanh nghip. V vy vic nghin cu cc gii php nhm hn ch
ri ro lun mang tnh thi s, cp thit v c t ln hng u ca cc doanh
nghip. Trong phm vi bi bo co ny, nhm chng em ch a ra mt cch
nhn tng qut v qun tr ri ro ti cc doanh nghip. Vi kh nng v thi gian
18
20