Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Technical Analysis Stock Market Tutorial
Technical Analysis Stock Market Tutorial
Patterns
(Elliott waves)
Momentum
(Rates-of-change)
Trend
(Moving averages)
Greed
Euphoria
Denial
Conviction
Confidence
Optimism
Hope
Relief
Caution
Pessimism
Fear
Despondency
Panic
Contents
What is technical analysis? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Technical analysis pre-empts fundamental data . . . . . . . 4
Mood governs ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Optimism, pessimism, greed and fear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Chart types and chart construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Support and resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Trendlines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 9
Investment horizons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
What trend? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Moving averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
The simple moving average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Long-, medium- and short-term averages . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Moving average crossover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Momentum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Momentum, indicator signals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Long-, medium- and short-term indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 18
9500
Trend and momentum combination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Reversal and redistribution . . . . . . . . . .9000
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Equity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8500
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Cycle phase distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
The Elliott Wave Principle . . . . . . . . . . .8000
............
23
Catalog of impulsive waves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Catalog of corrective patterns . . . . . . .7500
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Impulsive wave patterns, example. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
7000
Corrective wave patterns, example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Head and shoulder reversal pattern . . .6500
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Fascinating Fibonacci . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Wave correlations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30
6000
Fibonacci correlation - more than coincidence . . . . . . 31
Diploma in basic technical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32
-2-
Price chart
6500
6000
5500
Technical indicators
5000
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
-3-
Economic
recession
Economic
recession
Stock market
Economic growth
B
Technical analysis pre-empts fundamental data
Fundamentalists believe there is a cause and effect between fundamental factors and price changes.
This means, if the fundamental news is positive the price should rise, and if the news is negative the
price should fall. However, long-term analyses of price changes in financial markets around the world
show that such a correlation is present only in the short-term horizon and only to a limited extent. It is
non-existent on a medium- and long-term basis.
In fact, the contrary is true. The stock market itself is the best predictor of the future fundamental
trend. Most often, prices start rising in a new bull trend while the economy is still in recession (position
B on chart shown above), i.e. while there is no cause for such an uptrend. Vice versa, prices start
falling in a new bear trend while the economy is still growing (position A), and not providing fundamental reasons to sell. There is a time-lag of several months by which the fundamental trend follows the
stock market trend. Moreover, this is not only true for the stock market and the economy, but also for
the price trends of individual equities and company earnings. Stock prices peak ahead of peak earnings while bottoming ahead of peak losses.
The purpose of technical analysis is to identify trend changes that precede the fundamental
trend and do not (yet) make sense if compared to the concurrent fundamental trend.
-4-
G
R
E
E
D
F
E
A
R
-5-
Complacency
Price trend
Concern
Caution
Capitulation
(Pessimism, Fear, Panic)
Optimism, pessimism, greed and fear
Why arent more people making more money in the financial markets? Because, as we have seen,
people are motivated by greed (optimism) when buying and by fear (pessimism) when selling. People
are motivated to buy and sell by changes in emotion from optimism to pessimism and vice versa.
They formulate fundamental scenarios based on their emotional state (a rationalization of the emotions), which prevents them from realizing that the main drive is emotion.
The chart above shows that if investors buy based on confidence or conviction (optimism) they BUY
near or at the TOP. Likewise, if investors act on concern or capitulation (pessimism) they SELL near
or at the BOTTOM. Investors remain under the bullish impression of the recent uptrend beyond the
forming price top and during a large part of the bear trend. Vice versa, they remain pessimistic under
the bearish impression from the past downtrend through the market bottom and during a large part of
the next bull trend. They adjust their bullish fundamental scenarios to bearish AFTER having become
pessimistic under the pressure of the downtrend or AFTER having become optimistic under the pressure of the uptrend. Once having turned bearish, investors formulate bearish scenarios, looking for
more weakness just when it is about time to buy again. The same occurs in an uptrend when mood
shifts from pessimism to optimism. Investors formulate bullish scenarios AFTER having turned bullish,
which is after a large part of the bull trend is already over. Emotions are the drawback of fundamental
analysis. Investors must learn to buy when they are fearful (pessimistic) and sell when they feel euphoric (optimstic). This may sound easy (simple contrary opinion), but without Technical Analysis it is
hard to achieve.
The main purpose of technical analysis is to help investors identify turning points which they
cannot see because of individual and group psychological factors.
-6-
Monthly OHLC
bar chart
Weekly OHLC
bar chart
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
8000
7500
7000
6500
6500
6000
6000
5500
5500
5000
5000
4500
4000
4500
3500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Daily OHLC
bar chart
A M
J A
S O N
D 2009
A M J J A
S O N D 2010
A M J J A
Hourly OHLC
bar chart
6850
6800
6750
6700
6650
6850
6800
6750
6700
6650
6600
6600
6550
6550
6500
6500
6450
6400
6450
6350
6400
6300
6350
6250
6300
6200
6250
6150
6200
6100
November
December
2010
February
March
April
15
22
February
1
March
Bar charts
High
High
6500
Open
6000
Close
5500
Low
Low
May Jun Jul
-7-
Break of resistance
35
Breakout
above
resistance
level
30
30
25
Resistance
becomes support
19
20
Support becomes
resistance
15
Last low
becomes support
10
Last low
becomes support
Break of support
Last low
becomes support
5
1996
1997
1998
-8-
21
20
19
Trendline is
broken
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
Trendline is
broken
11
10
9
8
J
1997
Trendlines
Resistance levels can either be drawn by horizontal lines (as discussed on the previous page) or can
be uptrending or downtrending lines.
The trendline is nothing more than a straight line drawn between at least three points. In an upmove
the low points are connected to form an uptrend line. For a downtrend the peaks are connected. The
important point is that it should not be drawn over the price action. Trendlines must encorporate all of
the price data, i.e. connect the highs in a downtrend and the lows in an uptrend.
The trendline becomes more important and gains credibility as the number of price extremes that can
be connected by a single line increases. The validity and viability of a line that connects only two price
extremes (for example the starting point and one price low) is questionable.
The trend is broken when the price falls below the uptrend line or rises above the downtrend line.
Some analysts use a 2-day rule, meaning that the trend is only seen as broken if the price closes
above/below the trendline for at least two days. Others use a 1% stop (could be higher depending on
market volatility), meaning the trend is only seen as broken if the price closes over 1% above/below
the trendline.
The chart above shows Intels rise from July 1996 to March 1997. Based on the uptrend line, investors would have held onto the position from around 38/40 until 66 or even 74/76. Most often investors take profits much too early. Stay with a trend until it breaks, avoiding the urge to sell too
soon because the profit could be higher than you originally thought.
-9-
11
12
HOURS
Long-term trend
(lasts about
12 months)
10
2
3
9
SECONDS
Short-term trend
(lasts about
2-6 weeks)
8
7
MINUTES
Intermediate-term
trend
(lasts about
3-6 months)
Investment horizons
The charts on the previous pages show that investors require perspective. It is imperative to differentiate between a short-term, a medium-term and a long-term trend. If somebody tells you to buy the
US dollar because it is likely to rise, make sure you understand whether the dollar is expected to rise
over a few days or a few months and if you should buy the dollar with the intention to hold it for several
days, several weeks or several months.
For a technician on the trading floor, the long-term horizon is entirely different from that of an institutional investor. For a trader, long-term can mean several days, while for the investor, it can mean 12 to
18 months.
We can compare the charts and indicators to a clock (shown above). Short-term trends (the seconds)
are best analyzed on daily bar charts. Medium-term trends (the minutes) are best seen on weekly bar
charts and long-term trends (the hours) are best seen on monthly bar charts. Some investors only
want to know the hour, some want to know the seconds and some want to know the exact time.
The best investment results are achieved when all three trends on the daily, weekly and monthly
charts point in the same direction.
- 10 -
1.55
Long-term trends
1.50
1)
1.45
Medium-term trends
1.40
1.35
1.30
2)
1.25
3)
1.20
1.15
Short-term trends
1.10
1994
1995
1996
What trend?
Uptrend:
Higher peaks and
higher troughs
Downtrend:
Lower peaks and
lower troughs
1997
1998
50
21
48
171
34.2
55
22
40
186
37.2
57
23
43
199
39.8
60
24
41
205
41
65
287
57.4
25
35
207
41.4
70
307
61.4
26
39
198
39.6
66
318
63.6
27
35
193
38.6
60
321
64.2
28
37
187
37.4
50
311
62.2
29
25
171
34.2
10
54
300
60
30
18
154
30.8
11
45
275
55
31
35
150
30
12
43
252
50.4
32
50
165
33
13
33
225
45
33
40
168
33.6
14
40
215
43
34
45
188
37.6
15
35
196
39.2
35
50
220
44
16
30
181
36.2
36
70
255
51
17
25
163
32.6
37
70
275
55
18
30
160
32
38
60
295
59
19
35
155
31
39
75
325
65
20
33
153
30.6
40
70
345
69
Moving averages
Moving averages are popular and versatile for
identifing price trends. They smooth out fluctuations in market prices, thereby making it easier to
determine underlying trends.
Their other function is to signal significant changes
in direction as early as possible.
The simple moving average is the most widely
used. Its calculation is shown above in mathematical form and displayed in the chart on the right.
For a 5-day moving average, you simply add the
closing prices of the last five closings and divide
this sum by 5. You add each new closing and skip
the oldest. Thus, the sum of closings always remains constant at 5 days.
Priceand
& 5-day
moving
average
Price
5-day
moving
average
Price
80
70
5-day-moving average
60
50
40
30
Price
20
10
0
1
10 13 16 19
22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Time - Days
Whether you choose a 10-day average or a 40week average, the calculation is the same; instead
of adding five days, you add 10 days or 40 weeks and divide the sum by 10 or 40, respectively.
In most of our research, we use the moving average length out of the Fibonacci series (see page 29).
To analyse the short-term trend, we use the 13-day and 21-day averages. For the medium-term
trend, we use the 34-day and 55-day averages. For the long-term trend, we use the 89-day and 144day averages. Moreover, we also analyze very long-term trends, the so-called secular trends with the
233-day, 377-day, 610-day and 987-day moving averages.
Global Technical Research
- 12 -
9500
9000
8500
27
3
10
August
17
24
31
8
14
September
21
28
5
12
October
19
26
2
9
November
16
23
30
7
14
December
21
28
4
11
1999
- 13 -
9500
9000
6500
8500
6000
8000
7500
5500
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5000
6500
6000
4500
5500
5000
4000
4500
3500
4000
1999
2000
2001
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2006
2007
2008
2002
2003
2004
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5000
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4800
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4500
4400
4300
4200
February
April
May
June
July
- 14 -
S1
21-day moving average
S2
S2
S1
1.54
S3
1.52
1.50
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.42
B1 B2
1.40
1.38
1.36
1.34
1.32
1.30
1.28
1.26
1.24
1.22
B1
B3
1.20
1.18
B2
Sep
1.16
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
- 15 -
Day
C lo s e
1
2
D iffe re n c e fro m
5 d a y s e a r lie r
Day
C lo s e
D if f e re n c e f ro m
5 d a y s e a rlie r
50
21
48
18
55
22
40
15
57
23
43
13
60
24
41
65
25
35
70
20
26
39
-9
66
11
27
35
-5
60
28
37
-6
50
-1 0
29
25
-1 6
10
54
-1 1
30
18
-1 7
11
45
-2 5
31
35
-4
12
43
-2 3
32
50
15
13
33
-2 7
33
40
14
40
-1 0
34
45
20
15
35
-1 9
35
50
32
16
30
-1 5
36
70
35
17
25
-1 8
37
70
20
18
30
-3
38
60
20
19
35
-5
39
75
30
20
33
-2
40
70
20
Momentum
Price
and
5-day rate
difference
Price
and
5-day
of change
Momentum
Price
- 16 -
a+d=top phase
5
4
u+a=
bull phase
6
positive
values
3
Zero Line
d+t=
bear phase
negative
values
8
1
t+u=bottom phase
Time axis
- 17 -
9500
9000
8500
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5500
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6500
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6000
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4500
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4500
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3500
6000
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3500
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1000
3000
2000
500
1000
0
-1000
-500
-1000
-2000
-3000
1999
2000
2001
2002
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2003
-1500
-2000
2004
5600
5500
5400
5300
5200
5100
5000
4900
4400
the medium-term trend while the daily or short4300
term momentum indicator (roughly a 10-day rate
4200
Short-term momentum oscillator
of change) tracks the short-term trend.
1000
We then combine the momentum indicators with
500
the moving averages to identify the trends in force
0
and to assess the most likely future path of these
Lower highs in the momentum
-500
trends.
means the uptrend is slowing.
-1000
The highest investment return is achieved when
investors start buying at the momentum bottom
February March
April
May
June
July
and add to positions when the price confirms the
momentum indicators uptrend and rises above the
moving average. Likewise, investors should start selling if the momentum indicator tops out and sell
more if the price falls below the moving average. Thus, a combination of the signals given by the
momentum oscillators, moving averages, and support and resistance should be applied.
- 18 -
55-day (medium-term)
moving average
1.55
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
144-day (long-term)
moving average
1.30
1.25
1.20
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
- 19 -
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Redistribution
OVERBOUGHT
15
4000
SELL
3000
2000
a d
t u
Re-accumulation
1995
1996
1000
a d
OVERSOLD
1997
t u
-1000
BUY
- 20 -
35
145
140
135
30
130
125
120
115
1500
25
Halliburton
(weekly chart)
Medium-term momentum indicator
above Zero and declining.
3000
2000
1000
1000
500
0
-1000
0
2010
2010
2011
2011
Portfolio analysis
Each day we calculate the position of over 1000
stocks on the short-, medium- and long-term
momentum model. Four stocks are shown on
this page, each displaying the medium-term indicator in one of the 4 possible positions. Investors should look to buy stocks with a rising
momentum indicator while selling the stocks
with a falling momentum indicator.
65
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
Entergy
(weekly chart)
60
55
50
Zimmer Holding
(weekly chart)
45
2010
40
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2011
1500
1000
500
0
-500
2010
2011
- 21 -
% C Y C L E P H A S E D IS T R IB U T IO N
N u m b e r o f F ile s = 1 0 0 %
Up
A d v a n c in g
D e c lin in g
T e r m in a t in g
Long
C y c le
0
30
30
40
I n t e r m e d ia t e
C y c le
17
53
23
7
30
S h o rt
C y c le
50
13
7
30
- 22 -
and
Waves
Waves
Waves
of 5 waves (1) and (3) and two sets of three wave patterns (2)
and (4), a final set of 5 waves materializes and completes the
whole pattern.
At this point, after wave (5) is complete, there is now a set of
3 waves (a), (b) and (c) of greater magnitude than the two
previous corrections. This set would correct the whole of the 5
upward waves, which themselves had each broken into 5 and
3 smaller waves along the way.
- 23 -
3
1
5
4
iii
2
3
iv
ii
ii
iv
3
2
iii
iii
iv
ii
4 ii
iii
v
3
(5)
iv
(2)
(3)
5
1
4
(4)
(1) 1
(1)
(2)
2
(4)
3
(3)
(5)
3
5
- 24 -
A
B
C
X
Double ZigZag
B
C
A
X
A
C
E
C
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)
- 25 -
5
3
30
25
4
20
1
5
15
10
Nov
Dec
Jan
1998 Feb
2
Oct
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
16
24
22
20
18
7.
14
12
10
8
6
C
September
2
October
November
December
1999
- 26 -
D
B
D
E
A
E
A
- 27 -
Head
H
H
S S
Left
Shoulder
Right
Shoulder
Neckline
(2)
4
Neckline
A
(1) (4)
Neckline of
inverse head &
shoulder
(3)
Target
(5)
- 28 -
AB/BC=BC/AC=0.618
Any length can be divided so the ratio between
the smaller part and the larger part is equivalent to the ratio between the larger part and
the whole. The ratio is always 0.618.
Fascinating Fibonacci
It may surprise you to learn that the universe, the constellations, the galaxy, flowers, oceans, plant life,
man, natural science, music, architecture AND THE FINANCIAL MARKETS have one thing in common: the FIBONACCI SEQUENCE. Leonardo Fibonacci was a thirteenth century mathematician who
developed a number sequence of the form:
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987 ............ where each number is the sum of
the previous two numbers.
This sequence of numbers has some very important properties.
For example: The ratio of any number to the next number in the sequence is 0.618 to 1 and to the
next lower number is 1.618.
Between alternate numbers in the sequence the ratio is 2.618 or its inverse 0.382.
These numbers have some special relationship of their own such as
2.618 - 1.618 = 1
0.618 x 0.618 = 0.382
1 - 0.618 = 0.382
1.618 x 1.618 = 2.618
2.618 x 0.382 = 1
Additional phenomena relating to the Fibonacci sequence includes:
1) No two consecutive numbers in the sequence have any common factors.
2) The sum of any ten numbers in the sequence is divisible by 11.
3) The sum of all Fibonacci numbers in the sequence +1 equals the Fibonacci number two steps
ahead.
4) The square of a Fibonacci number minus the square of the second number below it in the sequence is always a Fibonacci number.
There are numerous relationships within this series, but the most important is 1.618 or 0.618. It is
known as the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean (or phi) and governs natures growth patterns.
Global Technical Research
- 29 -
Waves 1 & 2
Waves 1 & 3
Waves 3 & 4
0.382
or
0.618
1.0
1.618 or
2.618
0.618 or
0.382
1.0
1.0
Waves 1 to 3 & 5
0.618
1.0
1.0
1.0 or
1.618
1.0
1.0 or
1.618
0.618
0.382
1.0
Triangle waves
Wave correlations
The most important wave correlations in bull markets (impulse waves)
and bear markets (corrective waves)
are shown on this page.
- 30 -
61.80% retracement
of the entire bull cycle
from
1995 to 1998
3
4
A
C
0.618
61.80% retracement
of the entire bull cycle
from 1995 to 1998
0.382
- 31 -
DIPLOMA
IN
BASIC
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Congratulations
You made it through the basic concepts of technical analysis. This should help you to
follow our
- 32 -
B ankin g division due to th e dif fe rence s in ev aluat ion cr it eria. T he report is pub lish ed
solely f or infor mat ion pur poses a nd d oes no t con st it ute an off er or an in vitation by, o r
on beha lf of , Cre dit Su isse t o bu y or sell an y se cu rities or re lat ed financial
instru ment s or to par ticipat e in an y part icular tradin g strateg y in any jurisdict io n. It has
bee n pr epar ed w it hout taking accoun t of t he objective s, financial situat ion or needs
of any p art icular inv estor. Alt houg h t he inf orm ation has be en ob tained fr om and is
based upon so urces that Cr edit Suisse be lieves to be re liable, n o r epre sen tation is
mad e t hat the infor mat ion is accurat e or complet e. Cr edit Su isse d oes no t acce pt
liab ilit y for any loss arisin g f rom th e use of this r epor t. The price and v alue o f
inve st ment s ment ion ed and an y incom e t hat might accrue may f luct uate and may rise
or fall. Nothing in th is rep ort co nstit ute s inv est ment , legal, account in g or t ax ad vice,
or a rep resent atio n t hat any investm ent or strat egy is suitable or ap prop riate to
individual circum st ances, or ot her wise con stit utes a persona l reco mmen dation to any
specific in vestor . An y refere nce to past p erf orm ance is not necessarily indi cativ e o f
future r esults. For eign cu rr ency rates o f exchan ge may adv ersely af fect th e v alu e,
pr ice or in come of any pr oduct s men tioned in this do cu ment . Alte rnat iv e inv estmen ts,
der ivative or str uctured pr oduct s ar e com ple x instru ment s, typically invo lv e a high
deg ree o f risk and ar e inte nded fo r sale only to inve st ors who are cap able o f
und erstan din g and assuming all t he risks inv olv ed. Inv estme nts in e mergin g mar kets
ar e speculative and con sider ably mor e v olat ile t han inv estmen ts in estab lish ed
mar kets. Risks include bu t are no t necessarily limite d to: po litical risks; econom ic
risks; credit r isks; curr ency r isks; an d m arket risks. B efo re ente ring int o an y
tr ansaction, investo rs sho uld consider t he suit ability of t he tr ansact ion t o ind iv idu al
circumsta nces and objectives. In jurisdict ion s whe re Cr edit Suisse is not already
regist ered or licensed to t rade in securities, t ransactions w ill only b e effect ed in
accor dance w ith applicable secu ritie s le gislation, w hich will var y from jur isdiction to
jurisdict ion and m ay re quire that t he tr ade be made in acco rdan ce w it h applicable
ex emp tio ns from r egistrat io n or licensing r equire ment s. C red it Suisse r ecomm ends
th at inv estor s in depe ndent ly assess, w ith a prof essional financial advisor, t he spe cif ic
finan cial risks as well as legal, r egulato ry , cre dit , tax and account in g consequ ences.
A Credit Suisse compan y may, to the ex ten t perm it ted by law , p art icipate or inve st in
ot her financing tr ansactions w ith the issuer o f the securities ref err ed to her ein,
per fo rm ser vices or solicit business f ro m such issuer s, and/or have a p osition o r
ef fect tr ansactions in th e secur it ies o r o ptions th ereo f.
F or t he histor y of an y t rade ide as b ase d on technical analy sis ov er the p rev iou s 12
mo nths, ple ase view the docum ent at:
https://ww w.c re ditsuisse.c om/lega l/pb_re se ar ch/a dditional_file s/tec h_ disclosure. pdf
Tr ade id eas based on tech nical an aly sis ar e sh ort te rm trading oppor tun it ies that may
diff er fr om th e v ie ws of oth er Credit Suisse resear ch analy sts. T rad e ideas may also
diff er dir ectionally f ro m inve st ment r atings.
Ex cept as oth erw ise specified h ere in, t his r epo rt is dist ribute d by C re dit Suisse AG , a
Sw iss bank, auth orized a nd re gulated by the S wiss F inancial M arket Supe rvisory
Aut hor ity. Australia : This re por t is distribut ed in Australia by C red it Suisse AG,
Sy dney Br anch (C SSB) (AB N 1 7 0 6 1 7 00 712 AFSL 2 268 96) on ly t o "W holesa le"
clien ts as def ined by s76 1G of t he C or porat io ns Act 2 001 . C SSB does n ot
gu arant ee t he pe rfo rm ance of , no r m ake an y assuran ces with r espect to t he
per fo rma nce of an y f inan cial pro duct r efe rr ed her ein . B aha mas : Th is rep ort was
pr epar ed by C redit Suisse AG, th e Swiss bank, a nd is distributed on be half of Cr edit
Suisse AG , Nassau Bran ch, a branch of the Sw iss bank, re gist ered as a broke rdea ler b y th e Securities Com mission of the Bah amas. B ahrai n: T his r epor t is
distribut ed by C redit Suisse AG , B ahrain B ranch, au thor ize d an d reg ulat ed by t he
C entr al B ank of Bah rain (C BB ) as an In vestm ent Firm Cat egory 2 . Duba i: T his
info rmat io n is distr ib uted by C redit Suisse AG , D ubai Br anch, duly licensed a nd
regulated by t he Du bai F inan cial Ser vices Au thor it y (DF SA). Re lat ed financial
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ov er U SD 1 million w ho hav e su ff icient finan cial e xpe rience and und erstan ding to
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crite ria to be a clien t. Fra nc e: Th is repor t is distribut ed by Cr edit Su isse ( Fr ance),
aut horized by the Co mit d es Etablissem ents de Crdit et d es Entr epr ises
d
In vestisse ment s (C ECEI) as an investm ent ser vice p rov ide r. C red it Su isse ( F rance )
is supervised and re gulated by the C omm issio n B ancaire and t he Auto rit des
M archs Financiers. Germa ny: C redit Suisse (Deu tschlan d) AG, au thor iz ed and
regulated by the Bu ndesanstalt fu er Finan zdie nstle istun gsaufsicht (B aFin),
disse min ates r esearch to it s clients t hat has be en pr epar ed by one of it s aff iliat es.
Gibra lta r: T his rep ort is distr ib uted by C red it Suisse (Gib raltar ) L imited. Cr edit Suisse
(Gibraltar) L imited is an in depen dent legal ent it y w holly ow ned by C redit Suisse and
is r egu lat ed by the Gibr alt ar Fin ancial Services Com mission. Guern sey: Th is report
is d istr ib uted b y C redit Su isse (G uer nsey ) L im it ed, an inde pende nt legal ent ity
regist ered in G uer nsey un der unde r 15 197 , with it s reg iste red addr ess at Helv etia
C ourt , Les Ech elon s, So uth Esplan ade, St Pete r P or t, Gu ern sey . Cr edit Suisse
(Gu ernsey ) Limited is who lly o wne d by Cre dit Suisse and is re gulated by t he
Guernsey Financial Ser vices Co mmission. Hong Kon g: T his re port is issued in Ho ng
Ko ng by C redit Suisse AG Hon g Kong B ranch, an Aut hor ized Institut ion r egulate d b y
th e Hong Kong Mo netary Au thor it y an d a Reg ister ed Institu tio n re gulated b y t he
Secur it ies and Fut ur es Or din ance (C hapt er 5 71 of the L aw s of Hong Kong ). I ndia :
T his r epor t is distribut ed b y Cre dit Suisse Secur it ies (India) Priva te L imited ("Cr edit
Suisse India"), reg ula ted by the Securit ies and Ex chang e B oard of India ( SEBI) . I ta ly:
T his r epor t is distr ib uted in It aly by C redit Su isse (It aly) S. p.A ., a bank incorp orat ed
and reg iste red under Italian la w subject to t he supe rvisio n and co ntr ol o f B anca
d
It alia a nd C ONSOB. Luxembourg: Th is repor t is d istr ibu ted by Cr edit Suisse
(Luxemb our g) S. A., a Luxemb our g bank, a uthorized and regulate d by t he
C ommission de Surv eillance du Sect eur Financier ( CSS F) . M exic o: The inf orm ation
cont aine d here in do es no t co nstit ute a pub lic o ffe r of secur ities as de fined in t he
M exican Secur itie s Law . Th is re port will no t be adv er tised in an y m ass me dia in
M exico. T his rep ort does n ot co ntain any adv ert isem ent reg arding int er mediation o r
pr oviding of banking or inve st ment ad visory serv ices in Me xico o r t o Mex ican citize ns.
Q atar: This in for mation h as been d istr ib uted by Cr edit Suisse Financial S erv ices
(Qa tar) L. L.C , w hich has been aut hor ize d and is reg ulated by t he Qatar F inancial
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Ce ntre R egulatory Aut hority (QFCRA ) unde r QFC No. 00005. All related fin ancial
products or services will o nly b e available to Busin ess Cust omers or M arke t
Co unterparties (as d efined by the Qata r Fin ancial Cent re Regulato ry Aut hority
(QFCR A)), including individuals, wh o have opted to be classified as a Busine ss
Cu st omer, with liq uid assets in excess of USD 1 million, and who have sufficie nt
financial kno wledge , exp erience and un derst anding to participate in such pro ducts
and/or service s. Russ ia: The rese arch co ntained in this re port do es not constitut e
any sort of advert isem ent o r promo tio n fo r specific securitie s, or related fin ancial
inst rum ents. Th is research repo rt does n ot represent a valuat ion in th e me anin g of
the Federal Law On Valuation Activities in the Russian Fe derat io n and is p roduc ed
usin g Cre dit Suisse valuat ion mo dels and meth odology. Singapore: Dist ributed by
Credit S uisse AG, Singapo re Branch, reg ula ted by the Mon etary Auth ority of
Singapo re. Spain: This repo rt is dist ribute d in Spain by Credit Suisse AG, Sucursal
en Espaa, authorized un der nu mber 1460 in th e Register by the Ban co d e Espa a.
Thailand: This repo rt is dist ribute d b y Credit Suisse Securit ies (Thailand ) Limited ,
re gulated by the Office of the Securit ies and Exchange C omm ission , Thailand, wit h
its re gist ered address at 990 Abdu lrahim P lace Build ing , 27/F, Rama IV Road ,
Silom , Ban grak, Bangkok Tel. 0-2614-6000. United K ingdom: This re port is
issued b y Credit Suisse (UK) Lim it ed and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited .
Credit Suisse Securit ies (Europe) Limited and Credit Suisse (UK) Lim it ed, bot h
aut horized and regulated by the Finan cial Services Aut hority, are associate d bu t
indepen dent legal en tit ies within Cre dit Suisse. The pro tections made available by t he
Finan cial Service s Au thorit y for ret ail client s d o not ap ply to investme nts or se rvices
provided by a perso n out side the UK , nor will the Financial Se rvices C ompe nsa tion
Schem e be available if the issue r of the investme nt fails to m eet its obligation s.
UNITED STATES: NEITHER THIS REPORT NOR ANY COPY THEREOF MAY B E
SENT, TAKEN INTO OR DISTRIB UTED IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY US
PERSON.
Japan: Neither this report nor any co py t hereof m ay be sen t, tak en or distribu ted in
Japan.
Imprint
Publisher
Rolf Bertschi, Managing Director
Head of Global Technical Research
Tel. +41 44 333 24 05
E-Mail rolf.bertschi@credit-suisse.com
Technical Research
Beat Grunder, Assistant Vice President, Zurich
Technical Research; Swiss Equities, Commodities and Resource Stocks
Tel. +41 44 333 5358
E-Mail beat.grunder@credit-suisse.com
Michael Macdonald, Vice President, Singapore
Technical Research; Asian/Pacific Equities, APAC Forex
Tel. +65 6212 6655
E-Mail michael.macdonald@credit-suisse.com
Mensur Pocinci, Vice President, Zurich
Technical Research; Fixed Income, Forex
Tel. +41 44 333 2069
E-Mail mensur.pocinci.2@credit-suisse.com
Raphael Wilhelm, Assistant Vice President, Zurich
Technical Research; European Equities, US Equities
Tel. +41 44 333 24 59
E-Mail raphael.wilhelm@credit-suisse.com
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jurisdictions.
Th is rep ort m ay no t be repro duced eithe r in wh ole o r in part, witho ut the writt en
permission of Credit Suisse. Copyrigh t 2010 Credit Su isse Gro up AG and /o r its
affiliates. All rights reserved.
10C018A
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