Moving average

For time series without significant trend or seasonal variation

Week

Demand
252922
248559
253342
249532
247693
246618
261333
247447
251492
249713
258563
249702
262667
258829
255631

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Mean absolute error

5 week moving
average

Absolute error
265000
260000

250410
249149
251704
250525
250917
251321
253710
251383
254427
255895
257078

255000
3792
12184
250000
4257 Demand
967
245000
1204
7242
240000
4008
11284
235000
4402
1
264
4960

Demand
Moving average (5 week)

Week

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Exponential smoothing
For time series without significant trend or seasonal variation
Week Demand
1
252922
2
248559
3
253342
4
249532
5
247693
6
246618
7
261333
8
247447
9
251492
10
249713
11
258563
12
249702
13
262667
14
258829
15
255631
16
Mean absolute error

Forecast
252936
252933
251883
252233
251585
250651
249683
252479
251271
251324
250938
252768
252032
254584
255603
255610

Absolute error

alfa = 0.24

265000
4374
1459
260000
2701
3892
255000
4033
11650
250000
5032 Demand
221
245000
1611
7625
240000
3066
10635
235000
4245
1
28
4327

Demand
Smoothed series

Week

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Simple linear regression for trend forecasting

Week

Demand
4.8
4
5.5
15.6
23.1
23.3
31.4
46
46.1
41.9
45.5
53.5
48.4
61.6
65.6
71.4
83.4
93.6
94.2
85.4
86.2
89.9
89.2
99.1
100.3
111.7
108.2
115.5
119.2
125.2
136.3
146.8
146.1
151.4
150.9

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Mean absolute error

Trend
4.7
9.0
13.3
17.6
21.9
26.2
30.5
34.8
39.1
43.4
47.7
51.9
56.2
60.5
64.8
69.1
73.4
77.7
82.0
86.3
90.6
94.9
99.2
103.5
107.8
112.1
116.4
120.7
125.0
129.3
133.6
137.9
142.2
146.5
150.7
155.0
159.3
163.6
167.9

Absolute
180
error
0.1
160
5.0
7.8
140
2.0
1.2
120
2.9
0.9
100
11.2
7.0
Demand
80
1.5
2.2
60
1.6
7.8
1.1
40
0.8
2.3
20
10.0
15.9
0
12.2
0.9
4.4
5.0
10.0
4.4
7.5
0.4
8.2
5.2
5.8
4.1
2.7
8.9
3.9
4.9
0.2

4.9

Week

Demand

Week

Trend

Additive model
Trend and seasonal variation considered

Moving
Demand average

Quarter
1
2

1
2

8
13

3
4

3
4

23
34

19.50
20.00

1
2

5
6

10
18

3
4

7
8

1
2

Centered
moving
average

Trend

Absolute
Seasonal Forecast error

Quarter

Seasonal

18.96
19.49

-10.96
-6.49

7.90
12.57

0.10
0.43

1
2

-11.06
-6.92

19.75
20.63

20.01
20.53

2.99
13.47

23.90
35.57

0.90
1.57

3
4

3.89
15.04

21.25
21.25

21.25
21.75

21.06
21.58

-11.06
-3.58

10.00
14.67

0.00
3.33

23
38

22.25
22.75

22.50
22.13

22.11
22.63

0.89
15.37

26.00
37.67

3.00
0.33

9
10

12
13

21.50
23.75

22.63
24.13

23.15
23.68

-11.15
-10.68

12.10
16.76

0.10
3.76

3
4
1

11
12
13

32
41

24.50

24.20
24.72
25.25

7.80
16.28

28.10
39.76
14.19

25
3.90
1.24 Demand
20

2
3

14
15

4
16
Mean absolute error

25.77
26.30

18.86
30.19

26.82

41.86

45
40
35
30

15
10
1.56

Demand

Trend

Forecas t

0
1

Notes

Quarter
ObservationS must be numbered 1, 2, 3, (column B).
Seasonal variation is smoothed by using 4 quarter moving average.
First moving average 19,50 belongs between 2. quarter and 3. quarter.
Second moving average 20,00 belongs between 3. quarter and 4. quarter.
Average of 19,50 and 20,00 (centered moving average) belongs to 3. quarter.
Column E is a time series without seasonal variation.
Trend can be calculated based on column E.
Seasonal in column G can be calculated either by using additive or multiplicative model:
-in the multiplicative model seasonal is demand divided by trend
-in the additive model seasonal is demand minus trend.
Seasonal for each quarter (in column K) is the mean of quarter values in column G.
Final forecast is calculated either by using additive or multiplicative model:
-in the multiplicative model the final forecast is trend multiplied by season in column K
-in the additive model the final forecast is trend plus season in column K.

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Multiplicative model
Trend and seasonal variation considered

Quarter

Moving
average

Demand

1
2

1
2

8
13

3
4

3
4

23
34

19.50
20.00

1
2

5
6

10
18

3
4

7
8

1
2

Centered
moving
average

Trend

Absolute
Seasonal Forecast error

Quarter

Seasonal

18.96
19.49

0.42
0.67

8.94
13.32

0.94
0.32

1
2

0.47
0.68

19.75
20.63

20.01
20.53

1.15
1.66

23.43
34.18

0.43
0.18

3
4

1.17
1.66

21.25
21.25

21.25
21.75

21.06
21.58

0.47
0.83

9.93
14.75

0.07
3.25

23
38

22.25
22.75

22.50
22.13

22.11
22.63

1.04
1.68

25.88
37.66

2.88
0.34

9
10

12
13

21.50
23.75

22.63
24.13

23.15
23.68

0.52
0.55

10.92
16.18

1.08
3.18

3
4
1

11
12
13

32
41

24.50

24.20
24.72
25.25

1.32
1.66

28.33
41.15
11.91

2
3

14
15

4
16
Absolute mean error

25.77
26.30

17.61
30.79

26.82

44.64

50
45
40
35

30
3.67
25
0.15 Demand
20
15

1.37

10

Demand

Forecas t

Trend

0
1

Notes

Quarter
ObservationS must be numbered 1, 2, 3, (column B).
Seasonal variation is smoothed by using 4 quarter moving average.
First moving average 19,50 belongs between 2. quarter and 3. quarter.
Second moving average 20,00 belongs between 3. quarter and 4. quarter.
Average of 19,50 and 20,00 (centered moving average) belongs to 3. quarter.
Column E is a time series without seasonal variation.
Trend can be calculated based on column E.
Seasonal in column G can be calculated either by using additive or multiplicative model:
-in the multiplicative model seasonal is demand divided by trend
-in the additive model seasonal is demand minus trend.
Seasonal for each quarter (in column K) is the mean of quarter values in column G.
Final forecast is calculated either by using additive or multiplicative model:
-in the multiplicative model the final forecast is trend multiplied by season in column K
-in the additive model the final forecast is trend plus season in column K.

10 11 12 13 14 15 16