2012 2 13

SAC S0080511010001

pengws@cicc.com.cn

SAC S0080111080022

zhaoy@cicc.com.cn

SAC S0080111040011

lintun@cicc.com.cn

SAC S0080111120042

zhuwj@cicc.com.cn

/ 90

2012

2012 2 13

......................................................................................................................... 3

................................................................................................. 3

.................................................................................................................. 5

.................................................................................................... 6

.......................................................................................................................... 7

......................................................................................................... 10

12003-2010 M2 ...........................................................................................................................4
2: .................................................................................................................4
3 M2 ........................................................................................................................5
4: ....................................................................................................................5
5: CPI ............................................................................................................................6
6: ......................................................................................................................................6
7: 35-54 .............................................................................................................8
8: / .......................................................................................................................8
9: / .......................................................................................................................8
10: / .....................................................................................................................8
11: / .....................................................................................................................9
12: M2 ........................................................................................................9
13: M2 .......................................................................................... 10
14: .......................................................................................... 10

2012 2 13

GDP

1995 2003
2003 2010
80 90 80-90

11986-1995 M2 28%M2
GDP 1985 58% 1995 100%
2
1995

1995 M2 1997-2002 M2
15.4% M2 GDP M2
GDP 1995 100% 2002 154%

21 2003-2010
M2 18.8% 2009 M2
17.6% 1
20.5%M2 GDP 2002 154% 2010
181%2003

25-64 1995-2000
24 65 125% 2

1994 1993 330 3050

M2 35%CPI 24%
2

2012 2 13

1990 GDP 35% 50%

12003-2010 M2
M2

2:
%
30

150

140

()

28

50

130

26

55

120

24

45

110

22

100

20
18

90

16

80

14

70

12

60

10

50
1980

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Wind

40

35

30
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

CEIC

WTO 21

1986-1995 CPI 11.9%

1996 2.3%

2003
1992-2002 M2
12%2003-2010 M2 43% 3

2003 4
5
2011 25

2011 4

2011 7
2003

2006 10
CHIBOR VAR (20002004)

2012 2 13
6
7 4

1996
1994
2003
75%

3 M2

4:

M2

160,000

300,000

140,000
120,000

250,000

%
25
20

100,000

200,000

80,000

15

60,000

150,000

40,000

10
100,000

20,000
0

50,000

-20,000

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-40,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Wind

Wind

25-64

M2

2011 9

2003 2002

7
2010 7

CPI
PPI

2012 2 13

2011 2
3.2 1.2 6

5: CPI

6:
CPI
2001.1=100
550

35,000

30,000
25,000

450

20,000
15,000

350

10,000

250

5,000
0

150

-5,000
-10,000

50

-15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2004

Wind

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011H1

CEIC

2003

M2

2010 11

2012 2 13

3-5
WTO
2011 11
15 2012

75%

2007

12 9

20-30

1995-2000 125%
1985-1990 10
1970-75 15 80

35-54 1989
24% 2000 30% 9
40 7

2012 2 13
15-20
20 1987-2006 Case-Schiller
90% 8 20 1970-1991
100% 9

10 10

7: 35-54

8: /

35-54 ()

/
Case/Shiller

PE (3)

42

150

31

140
38

2000 =100
200
180

130

29
34

160

120

30

27

26
25
22

140

100

120

90

100

80

23

18

110

80

70

14
21
6
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

60

60

10

50
1970

19
2020

1980

1990

2000

Haver Analytics

Haver Analytics

9: /

10: /

%
150
140

150
140

180

130

440

120

110

140

110

100

120

100

100

90

90

340

240

80

80

80

70

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

140

70

60

60
50
1950

2000 =100
540

130

160

120

2000 =100
200

40
2020

2010

60
50
1970

40
2010

Haver Analytics

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

40
2040

Haver AnalyticsWind

11
1999

2012 2 13

,
20
20 3.3%-1.0%

70 80
89-90 80-90
1997-98
2000 2001-03 IT
2007 21

80 7%
10 4% M2 14% 5%
4.8% 1% M2
8%-1% 12 1997
M2 13

80

90
1996 9

11: /

12: M2

2000 =100
200

150
140
130

GDP ()

/ ()

M2

15

180

()

160

11

110

140

100

120

90

100

120

80

-5

60

60

-1

80

70

50
1970

4
3

0
70s

1980

1990

2000

40
2010

80s

90s

00s

Haver Analytics

70s

80s

90s

00s

Global Insight

1996

2012 2 13

13: M2

14:

1010M2
10

10

700

20

600
16

500

12

400

300
200

100
0

0
2007

Global Insight,

2008

2009

2010

2011

CEIC

14

2012
2004

10

2012 2 13

2012

11

2012 2 13

()/
, 36 /

/
http://www.cicc.com.cn/CICC/chinese/operation/page4-4.htm
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-20%

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