-(Sataporn Ngarmruengpong)

https://hongvalue.wordpress.com/


(Ukcarajet seti) MarkOto


....

 ..

******************
fundamental
fundamental


**** SET 100
*****


*********
1. undervalue
2. underestimate
3. change business model
4. growth
5.
6. stock
7.

annual clip oppday

(http://www.set.or.th/set/oppdaybyperiod.do?language=th&country=TH )


*********** 50100 7-10 10-12

1. Indicator

ema rsi volume macdstoadx

2.


fundamental overvalue


fair value order market price (MP)

trend hold position
trend
( )
( )
1.
2. fundflow 3 fundflow
3 ( 4 3
) vi

3. fundflow fundflow

4. fundflow
fundflow

Q
q3
q2
//// q3


EX
1. %


2.
%
% =

3. %

stock
4. %

10% 5%
??
5.

6. gross margin
7.

1.

EX1.
100 50

=

EX2.
100 200
=
EX3.
mai 10

2. free cash flow

EX
(1) 100 150
(2) 100 75
?
=

free cash flow

.

3. free cash flow
fcf

free cash flow
marketcap
ev 2 marketcap
free cash flow

1.gross margin
gross margin

EX.
a b
a gross margin 35%, b 25%
a b

***Gross margin
cyclicalGross margin

gross margin
gross margin
2.asset turnover


EX.
a 1 2
b 1 3
= b

asset turnover
se-edmakrohmpro

3. grossmargin


A
asset turnover
B gross margin
asset turnover
business model

:::

account receivable
4. account receivable


EX
A 3
B 1

-
-
safety

voldtrest ratio
pe price/earning

100 Pe
earning yield
pe 10 100 10 10 yield 10%
pe
1.1 e

1.2 pe pe
pe
1.3pe
p/bv p/bv

1.bv
2. % bv

=.
p/bv pe

p/bv growth
p/bv
upside

EX
Roe 20 % pbv 1 0.5

20%

Roa
roa
- /
- earning before interest after tax adjust
finance
roa roa asset turnover*net margin
** roa asset

Ev/ebitdaEv
marketcap
ev = market cap+debt-cash ev
ebitda adjust
Ex
2 15
2 20 net profit
ebitda
ev/ebitda 3 pe 3
ebitda
Current ratio

*** 1
Current ratio nature

****

model

Ex
++ ticon
t-fund pe model ratio ticon
re-rating value

++bh
bh 12 pe 20
pe 32 switch
++PS
ps 5.5 ps model

4 creative accounting

cpf

** upside
***
how to protect loss

How to maximum profit

port
...
( )
120
80 120 base on pe 10 eps 12
pe 10 pe
w shape v shape ( w shape)
8 discount
pe 7 56
80 reward 120 upside 50% risk 30%

= downside
1

Ex2
5 gdp
pe 15
15

 225 = upside 200%

downside
probability premium pe
risk/reward vi


economy cyclical
- pe
reward risk 5 5
upside 300% downside 60%
downside 60%
5-6 1-2 port
p/bv 0.1-0.2
downside

pbv 0.10 6900
market cap 8000 reverse
reward
**

fundflow vi 5

 story

*** set 50
structural change
risk/reward

unlocking value

value
momentum value value
risk/reward

 vi vi

Momentum trading
set Q2 momentum trading
room
room upside
3

VI
vi drive

work

3
vi fundflow

vi

*****
volume
newhigh
Ex
sgp vi
vi

crash
15% 50%
50 % 70%
50%
port all time high

yoyo blueblood picatos

1.
10 %
150%
trade
1 5
5
10 10 5
6 7 5 10 5




invert
chart 6 4 3

2. 2
( 2)


. ( 1)


. ( 2)


. ( 3)
300-400

. ( 2)


* *

trade



decision tree

Ex
a b c

50









Tiger Woods visualize your shot before you hit the ball
3. 3
( 2)
( 3)

100
40-50 20
20 trade

20 20

4.
lollaparooza




value investing reflexivity Buffett Soros
event Mr
market critical mass
synesthesia trade
margin of safety

A
A lollapalooza



a b c d e f
trade 18

commodity 18 A
B C
trader

 Margin of safety
trader trades risks. risk

B A
invest first
MOS
a a b c
d lollaparooza 1+ 1 +1+1+1+1+1
7 150 75
invest first trade



invert reflexivty
invert MOS
invest first

invest first

**** success

overconfidence
model

update
s&pmarketcap
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1
,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
mmf
http://www.ici.org/research/stats
leiusa
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1
10 ust
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates
yield curve usa
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

ted-spread
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
present
http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/EconomicConditions/Thai/Pages/Press_montlhly.aspx
usd index
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839178/site/14081545/
tfex
http://www.tfex.co.th/th/index.html
board money reserve
http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/EconomicConditions/Thai/Pages/Press_weekly.aspx

( )

p p research
fundflow

 p p port
6-7
p
p
p
zerox
p

p

2. j j
j j
crash j

8 j
fundflow
j fundflow research j
j j
j
j
j
j

3. v v
v v fundflow

fundflow v v

v j v
v v
V v hedge fund
haircut haircut turn
around 10 2 v driver
v unlocking
value v j
fundflow ,driver v
j

F f trader
f 10 f 7
research f 3-4
3-4 .
f F

 f f research
F F
f research

f
f

undervalue
underestimate change business model growth
stock

annual clip oppday

 bid offer story

1.
professor

research


2.

3.
20%






bid offer

4.


noname ptt

****
jolt

match
5.



*******


upside downside
time frame

25, 2009 21:02 Filed under Uncategorized

comment
1. set 6
4 2
2. gdp 4 out performe

3. fed set 6 probability
83% 5 6 20%
60%

4. fed 6
50:50 % fed

5. fed 6 sector
Property
6. fundflow momentum earning momentum
2

fundflow momentum


7. sell in may and go away until November %
2% 98-08
8. 1 4 2 3
1998-2008 22%
sector
9. discount discount

10. 30 ,
,

..


alert
5 16.30 5 16.5 16.50 sms
16.5
18.20 max 55

case study

TVi
1.
-

3.i
-IH
4. vi
-.
5.v
-007
7. fundflow
-
8.2
-
9.b2 10
-blueblood
10.p tvi
-

. setarchivedashboard
appearencewidgets

11.ryuga-
12.picatos- svi

13.-14. . [13]
15.chatchai- tvi
16.mprandy-
17.crazyrisk-
18.mudley trader
19.hongvalue-
20.

**
range

(
) 1 3
3
***


1.

2.

3.



4.

5.

win win

6.

moderate




5

7.






%

8. 2550





2552

9.

()


10.

.
dcf

11.

 moonchild







thaivi

( )

-
-
56-1


600->650->560





20 %

( )
PTT


( )
560->650
2-3

** ( .
)
**

()

-

PE P/BV ROE ROA etc.







-

>
(
vi )

*******-
1.
2.
3.
4. ( )
5.

-
-
-

*****
PE



-

thaivi

- ()
www.thaivi.org ., warrent buffet
-
sunrise
-

(
copy->paste

. mprandy)
.

()

course
course



research research
meeting 15

big lose
1 2008 2008
4-5 crash

big lose

mudleygroup trader

 (fundamental, technical, capital flow, behavioral etc)

^_^

indicator
macd month 34
..

( )

abc 20% bet

abc ( ) pe 11-12
abc abc
abc new high abc
10-15%

 abc abc shoot

abc
() bet
time-lag


research
analys meeting


fair value 50 60
fair value 100 100 150



scenario
1.good news price in
2.good news has not price in
3.bad news price in
4.bad news has not price in

 4

1 2008
Ex property qh ps ap
75-80% undervalue

20-27% 27%
ap qhps 20%

lag sentiment
good news
price in scenario

( )


good news price in
bad news price in
one time bad news price in

Ex top 25
2008
stock loss

safe heaven bong yield 10 30

( 2008 1-2 2009) bond yield 30

Ex sc smg

one time bad
news price in pe
case


1. cpf 180%



2.-
1700 200
bet
ananly
3. gfptcpf 700
6-7 100% stavng
.. 10 800 730

 balance
balance vi timing

1. 100%
1.2
gross margin capacity
1.3
1.4

****

7-8 2008
trader crash


4-5

1. --

-
-

***

CUT LOSS
1. cut loss

cut loss

cpall

value


******
cut loss

bottom cycle


cycle
()

cut loss

= let profit run

let
profit run


discount


2008
downside
downside






high risk high return low risk high return
high risk

2010

 ( )
4 - 5 20 - 25%

2 1.
2.

.
Fund Flow
Research

"



Downside Upside "

1
1.

, ,

2.


- full time part time


-
conservative
financial freedom

-


commodity ,turnaround cycle



-


3.
- fair value dcf

wacc wacc discount
present value conservative
pe wacc

eps pe



4. bet stop loss
technical adapt
exit vi

telecom license 3g
4-5 license

peak 40%

mai growth story
50% 200 300

()


3 ( 3 ) 18
10%
EX
3 100000
40000 5% 30000 10%
2

1. surprise


2.
surprise

5.
vi

yoyo excel
undervalue yoyo

undervalue

a upside 30%
b 30%
a x a upside 10% b
a b undervalue () take
profit a undervalue yoyo


a

picatos
( make
)
1-1.4 pe 8 12
8 15-20%
16.8 (1.412)
alert

4


6.
nav unlock unlock
5%
()


7




43

(
) 2552

super stock

( invisible hand )
1.market growth
2.market share
3.net margin

pe 15-20

cpall market growth net margin market share
( discuss ) cpall
8 8-10
meeting 2007
2011

 cpall 4000 500

cpall 1
d.r. cpall
cpall
sss samestore sale growth

bgh cpall market growth ,net margin
bgh take over d/e ih
health care cost/ gdp
bhbgh bh
go inter bgh
margin bgh bgh cpall


advance
structural change
advanc
super high market growth ,high marketshare,improve net margin
penetration rate advanc
market
market share
high marketgrowth market growth enjoy
market
0.25 4-5
market growth market

growth growth improve net margin

market growth
margin

cawow
fitness



market growth

high market growth,good

management high market growth,bad
management
sg&a ,margin
ih
1.low operating risk can have high financial risk
2.high business risk should have low financial risk

 operating risk ps lpn

real demand operating risk
lhqh sc
2008 drop
balance sheet
financial risk

account recievable

?

high operatingrisk
low operating risk market growth sensitive
d/e

marketgrowth
high operating risk


low operating risk leverage return
high operating risk

high operating risk leverage

SUPER STOCK
super stock

( invisible hand )
1.market growth
2.market share
3.net margin

KTC
bv
4/53

15-15.4
ktc
upside downside

 7-8%
downside




bv
bv 0.8-0.9 1
upside 50-70% upside 30%
probably tvi (
)


ktc 19.70

sc
case


sc case sc
sc 5555
sc shin 1-3 tcc cc
stable income
1.5-1.6

 sc 2006 presale 1000 2010

5000

credit by reiter 2008

sc 17 reiter sc
bv discount
sc eps
eps

 sc 3.59 1.43 18
sc unlock
1.4 17
sc
17
ktc
bv
sc
downside upside
sc
pe eps developer 17 sumof-the-part pe pbv dividend downside
sc value
value value


downside upside

,

business
model
55
3 pe
3 pe pe

 rieter pe

reiter pbv

 picklife

 winner stock case study 10

10 2010 case study

 commodity

 psl 2002-2004

 10 subprime spread

quiz ptl market cap aj

 market cap ptl/aj 2010

switch

 cpf cpf q2/52

5

q2/52 cpf 5-6 cpf

 7 4 2548-2551
watch list

bargain hunter
sat 3.2 ultimate pessimism

 turnaround kce 0.74 kce

turnaround

 billybremner



Demand Supply

- VI Cut Loss ()
( )
- 70% 30%
()
- 10 8-9 8-9
10
=

-
()
- P/E

- P/E (
)

- (D/E Ratio) 1 ()

-

!
-
- 30:30:30:10

Ex
30% ( 30%) 78% 30% 30%
8% Cut Loss () ()

.
1.- 9
Thaivi.org
0.1% 0.15% ( 0.25%)
2.- (3 )

3. 1 -
100,000 .


4. 19-20 -


5.





7 ( 19-25 )
2

33
20 2 (2552-2553)
40-50 7 (2547-2553)
-
Hongvalue

 (VI) Value Investor

Value VI

Demand Supply


VI Cut Loss ()
( ) VI


70% 30%
()
20,000 APEX
10 8-9 8-9
10

()

()

 6-7%
P/E

P/E (
)

(EBITDA)
(D/E Ratio) 1
()


!

2

30:30:30:10

30% ( 30%) 78% 30% 30%
8% Cut Loss () ()
20 2 (2552-2553)

 2
LCD 60
9
Thaivi.org 0.1%
0.15% ( 0.25%)
(3 )


7-8
2





(--)
.
.
3 BCP 21
2
P/BV

 HEMRAJ 2.10
2555

CENTEL 7.30
1 2553 51 400
5
50-60% 70%
3

()
22-23

100,000
()


90% ()

1 . ( ) 2-3

1. se-ed

2.

3.
ih 300

4.




5. case study

project

6.


xxx
1

- risk reward


- 2009-2010 1100
set 1100
set

- 1100 set set

1100
- techinical set

- (
)
-

*** 100%
1000%

()
2, 2011 20:56 Filed underUncategorized
5
5

q3/50

 market cap 777

Like this:

1. Profit&Loss Book Value

1. GPM SG&A

Fixcost 10% ((133+40)/1,543)
GPM ( GP
) Fixcost
2. 1 ( 1
1 )
1
Q3 Q3 Q
MktCap (777)

 Asset
590
++ ( < 777 ) () ""



*** .

*** . Q 110 4Q
440 MktCap777 PE 1.77 !!!!!
++ () ()


" ()" MktCap

1

Q 245
Story

Asset
:)

2.

hongvaluesaid
2, 2011 @23:40


1. :)

2
1.
453 () 0 ()

.


2.
(
)
1,960 440
Q3 590 Q1, Q2 930
440

(
)

() (
^_^)

 Q3 0
Asset ( 440
)
.

PBV 0.5 Book Value (BV) BV

BV
PBV
ROE, ROA Q3 R E A
E A
Revenue
D/E 3 2 .

Cash Flow
1
1,300 5,200



:)

 JESSE LIVER MORE

1. 1. confirm
XX
XX 60 XX 40
XX 40 60
confirm XX
EX
60
4 40 44

2.


3.1. . take profit
EX

 10%
2 3 %
10%
take profit

= ( )


= 8 10 %
2 3 % 0 % ()
8 10 % volume
bid

5.
JESSE LIVER MORE

6.


7.
Mark Douglas

rebound new high

Ex
100 120
114 120 =
new high 250 250
230 242 230
230 242 new high 250
230
**




buffet lynch

undervalue undervalue
margin of safety
undervalue
150-200% ( 10
) undervalue
sideway
sideway model ticon tfund
ticon invisible hand

ilink ilink
pe

 naris yoyo oishi 20 pe

oishi 30 30 pdi
stock

pttep 10 growth pe
five forced model
model bancasuurance
scnyl 2004

tvi ums 500% pe dividend
boiler
sideway

 chin
1. chinn vi soros
re:
money market
vi soros
, dsm

Money management ,Technical

1. 2. worst case cash flow

()
re:
dtac ebitda 20000 50
dtac cash 10000 11000 2367
8.8
16
re: 3 g


10

 cash flow enron

block baster roynet cash flow
dtac cash flow
arpu smart phone dtac

1. 3.- acl acl market cap
finance
acl fair value

Re: book value 8

unlock (^^)
.
8 mkt cap acl 10,000
( BOT . )

. Tender offer

book
subprime leverage acl 5 1

10 1
npl 20 %
8 2
leverage
unlock
1.


asset under gear asset
asset wealth
sg&a

acl market cap BOT

. replacement cost
psl 1 30 5000 psl
market cap 500-600 psl
market cap psl earning cash flow
undervalue
1. 4.4. cash flow
upside 100%
upside
undervalue upside 20%
fair value
Re: port
20%
port
margin file excel
margin

average up margin

money game port
Timing Model

1. 5.-
Re:

pay it forward
1. margin
55555 ()
concept



leverage

o

set.or.th
mkt cap sale

acl ( )
google ceoicbc

jas
dtac 5




2

PTL IVL

******************************************************
money management
idea
dsm

2-3 step

1. cash flow

dtac
esso
jas0.40 cash flow
jas
boradband
cash flow boardband

megatrend boardband
jas true

 story
o

***


pay out ratio
dividend discount rate
( solve )
******************************************************************
*********

cash flow
cash flow

( )
cash flow
( )
******************************************************************
*******
jas ( story)

mkt cap 4000 . 1600
jas fiber
jas 3bb (tripple three boardband)

 acl
demographic internet


1. hongvaluesaid
19, 2012 @02:10

growth stage bgh take over
fcf
hmpro

bgh hmpro capex
growth

fcf
ebda opcf esso

1)
margin
2)

3)
************************************************************

bghmkt cap 116000 8000 30%

capex

1. chinn
1.Market cap / EBITDA Market cap /opcf
2. Market cap / EBITDA Market cap
/opcf
3.bghmkt cap 116000 8000 30%

1.Market cap / EBITDA Market cap / opcf

re: growth
0% 5
10% 5 7.5
20% 5 10

2) Market cap / EBITDA

Market cap / opcf
re: EBDA i t



opcf
working cap

3) bgh mkt cap 116000 8000 30%


re: monopoly

dtac
************ chinn

Market cap ebitda opcf

jas dtac
o

*********
()
., ,,
text book money management ,dsm ,

3 symbollic

Clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwtL8OYprEU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-MLl5BqSi4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rbugW55IMY&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzbhOo-YuEY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHddoHx-OHI

Google youtube.com
http://board.thaivi.org/viewforum.php?f=35&sid=b98b5f83498cbff6c7a4914b90b316ab

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