Yoyo's Investing Way 2006-2010 PDF

~ 1 ~
yoyo's investing way

www.yoyoway.com

2006-2010

https://www.facebook.com/WizardKidTrader
YOYO'S WAYS ~ 2 ~

Year 2006
www.yoyoway.com
~ 3 ~
(YOYO)
..
6
27

400 ?

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 4 ~

10
5 20

(New Investor
(Value
Program: NIP)
Investing: VI)

2545
GFPT

P/E , P/BV ,
2-3 30%

VI

1-2

60-70%

MBA

www.yoyoway.com
~ 5 ~

2546

300 700

VI

10-20

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 6 ~

sense

www.yoyoway.com
~ 7 ~
Snake

Bite Effect

55%
19
19

6 100% Hold Cash
3

3
5%
+10%
+50%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 8 ~

2 VI
VI

10-20

2-5

www.yoyoway.com
~ 9 ~

WACC, DCF

P/E Ratio
1

1

P/E

5-6

30%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 10 ~
1
7

P/E

P/E

5

PSL
8 11 1 40

60

8

3

SNC

3 7 15

17 12

www.yoyoway.com
~ 11 ~
P/E

P/E
P/E
5 A
F A

20-30%

P/E 12

B

15%
P/E 9-12
C

5-15%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 12 ~
P/E 6-9

D

5%

P/E 5-6 F

PS

1.10

30%

1.1x 1.3 1.4
1.25

PS

P/E 10 P/E 8
1.25 x 8 10

4.5%

5.5%

33%

55 %
www.yoyoway.com
~ 13 ~
15% 5%

10% 30
60 / 4
15%

6 27

27 100%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 14 ~

10

40%

Opportunity day

100

..40% ()

: Investor Station 137-145 1-11
2552
www.yoyoway.com
~ 15 ~
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Style YoYo

Value Investor

Value Investor
weblog

( )
.
Blog

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 16 ~
Monday, June 05, 2006
Value Investing

Value Investing ?

VI ? VI

2 Warren Buffet
VI
Fidelity

Peter Lynch JOHN

NEFF , SIR JOHN TEMPLETON
15% 2
Buffet

VI

.
VI

www.yoyoway.com
~ 17 ~
Technical Investor

VI

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 18 ~
Value Investing 2

link
(PETER LYNCH)
(http://www.thaivi.com/content/view/228/49/)
(JOHN NEFF)
(SIR JOHN TEMPLETON)
(PHILIP A. FISHER)

VI
?
...

www.thaivi.com

www.yoyoway.com
~ 19 ~
-
vi 2

vi

FE Port

8

-

WG

port

Port
8
- Mon Money
Thaivi.com VI

- . VI

. port 1000
1000 . post
thaivi

- thaivi

, Mr. Big, Naris, CK, Jay Chou,
, , woody
,

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 20 ~
(Value
.

Investing)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 21 ~
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
VI
?

Port

port

(http://www.set.or.th/th/education/broker/broker_p4.html)
idea comment

1
port

port seamico
commission

50 200

20000-80000

VI

se-ed

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 22 ~
www.yoyoway.com
~ 23 ~
Friday, June 09, 2006

In&Out

20
15
20%

se-ed

Davinci Code
... ..
se-ed

fuji mk
The Pizza Company

Pepsi

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 24 ~
www.yoyoway.com
~ 25 ~

..

"
"

internet

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 26 ~

56-1

56-1

.
Load
www.yoyoway.com
~ 27 ~
? 2

8
6

8 Se-ed

Fuji MK The Pizza Company Pepsi

MBK

MBK

MBK

56-1 MBK

MBK

MBK

Oishi
2

1-2

1

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 28 ~
20 15-18
10-25%

1
Se-ed

.

.
.

Aprint
WE

Davinci Code

se-ed Aprint

se-ed

Aprint

4 (Fuji MK The Pizza Company
Pepsi)
.
56-1 .
!
www.yoyoway.com
~ 29 ~
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
? 3
3 4 (Fuji MK The Pizza

Company Pepsi)
Fuji

Mail

MK
MK
Fuji

MK
Marketing
MK

The Pizza Company

The Pizza Minor
MINT
International
Pizza

Pizza

MINT

MINT

Swensens Sizzler Dairy Queen Burger
King

SSC

Pepsi

1

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 30 ~

ssc

pepsi

1

1

www.yoyoway.com
~ 31 ~

..

2 .

2

3

1. .
2. .

3.
.

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 32 ~
Thursday, June 15, 2006

?
com

"
"

..
...

..

" 4.02 "

" .... "
3.4

"4.02 9 " >>>>

-

Container House
17,000
20,000

60

"

www.yoyoway.com
~ 33 ~
500,000 "
" ...
500,000

"
>>>

"
"

(
.. )

Value Investor

""

John R. Nofsinger
se-ed

Wisdom Works

" "

""

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 34 ~
? ilink case

ILINK

load 56-1
48
computer
IT

DTAC AIS

order

ILINK

ILINK 1

economy of scale
www.yoyoway.com
~ 35 ~

ilink

0.78
4.5

47 488 48
670

37%

40
60

50%

MAI
30% 20%
eps 48 0.76 / PE 5.9

pe 8 eps 48

6.08 upside 35%

.. ...
ilink 4.7
(

20%
6/1.2 = 5 )

30%
49 wireless

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 36 ~

wireless
Margin

vol

(
1 ) 1
eps 49 (

) ilink 6 8
(pe 8 * eps 1)
20% 1
ilink 6.67
4.7
4.9
offer

ilink

5.2
4.7 5.2
8
ilink 5.6

( ilink

)
5.5

....

ilink

www.yoyoway.com
~ 37 ~
ILINK case
Q1/49 ilink

1 Q 0.25

152 187 23%

90% 0.29

ilink
1.
2. 3. solution
provider gross margin 3

48
49 gross margin

25.6% 33.3% drive

ilink

Backlog

306 (Q1
62 )

gross margin Q1
ilink

1 Naris
thaivi ilink
1.35 / O-O
ilink

pe 8 ilink

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 38 ~
10.8 upside 68.8% ...
3Q
www.yoyoway.com
~ 39 ~

VI

( )

portfolio management

(Efficient Market Theory

......

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 40 ~
warren buffet VI
"

")
comment

... ^_^

www.yoyoway.com
~ 41 ~

VI

( vi

)

4/12/45
1

.
TR

128
7
23% EPS 77%
23% 40.92*.23 = 9.41
10
2,842,240,834

201,600,000

,

Value Investor .

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 42 ~

Value Investor "
" ..

"

"

.

AYUD 105 PPPC 52 TR
.. 45
128 GRAMMY 118

E-mail . .

9 3-4
30%-40%
10

4 .. 2545 16:32:31 .
www.yoyoway.com
~ 43 ~
4/12/45

...(
)

.....

pantip 5
(

).... ....

() 2511 2516 6
..........

.... ....

3 ( ACC

(

).....
)

4 ayud tr PPPC
grammy

p/e p/bv

13 4

15%

grade A 30% ....

FANCY MBK LTX ( ltx

46

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 44 ~
3
.....
44
40 ).

(trading )
.......
cut loss
sta

33-34 26-27 ......

1.50 ......1.50

33.50 Divident Yield 4.48 % ...

...........

4/12/45

49 2496 ?
GRAMMY

Chairsholder ( Sharesholder)

CD GRAMMY 5%

PPPC

2
4

www.yoyoway.com
~ 45 ~

52
Chairsholder

CM
35

8%-9% Chairsholder

Chairsholder

Value
Investor

5/12/45
2491 . .....

..... cm
....

4
value investor
.........

10-15%
4

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 46 ~
5/12/45

EPISODE 2

BBL
100 200

4
10 BBL
150
20 150 4

Broker

BBL

150

, ,
,
,

( )

Broker

www.yoyoway.com
~ 47 ~

Broker

,
,,

BBL

250

SITCA , NAVA , NFS , TMB

SITCA NANA NFS TMB
1,200,000 100,000

..

.
(

)

3

FREEINET
Web

"

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 48 ~

"

13% 2%

50
2%

Chairsholder (
)

..

.

p/e p/bv
GRAMMY
500 10 118
10 / 1

0.5 /

2000 3000

GRAMMY

GRAMMY ,

www.yoyoway.com
~ 49 ~

GRAMMY

1. GRAMMY (
)

5%

GRAMMY
2.

3.

GRAMMY

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 50 ~
5/12/45

P/E

27 P/B
4.4 3 2
.......

4.4

grammy 76 (
) bec 190

210 250 ...

......

(
) ..........

good governance
......

.........

.........

"
"
.....

www.yoyoway.com
~ 51 ~

BKP
cp

.......

mp

.......... kmc

220

...... 220
80
.........

1

1

NAVA

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 52 ~
5/12/45

Chairman

Chairsholder

Chairman

"
"
"
-
" .

TR 128

5

204
AYUD

5 115

105 14.5
141
Chairsholder

Chairman

www.yoyoway.com
~ 53 ~

( ) 5/12/45

.

2543

(DOW)
" 1. 2.
1" ...

TTL

""

tod 5/12/45

Value investor

RR 5/12/45
cpf tmb cpf par

tmb set index

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 54 ~
bank

bank
cpf

par

grammy
par

fancy

delta
ccet

5/12/45

......

.....

..... .....

WARREN BUFFETT

. ........

GSM 5/12/45
.
3

(MBA)
2543

Value Investor
.
www.yoyoway.com
~ 55 ~
Portfolio

(
)

5

6/12/45

Value Investor

500 500

5

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 56 ~

TR

5 19.5 204
(

)
FE , P-FCB ,

WACOAL , TF ,TR ,AYUD, TWFP

www.yoyoway.com
~ 57 ~
6/12/45

4-5

10%

100

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 58 ~

!

www.yoyoway.com
~ 59 ~

IMF

( 3

)

.
(
SETTRADE.COM )

.

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 60 ~
6/12/45

Value Investor

500 500

5

TR

5 19.5 204
(

)
FE , P-FCB ,

WACOAL , TF ,TR ,AYUD, TWFP

www.yoyoway.com
~ 61 ~

6/12/45

SET index. .

TTL
TR

TTL 50
new high
newer high

CHOTI
EU
6/12/45
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 62 ~

()

400
1700

nava

700

200270

UGP 5
75500
3
4.75
%

1
5

7
11
14

www.yoyoway.com
~ 63 ~
6/12/45

Value

Mr. Market
Investor

SET index

2% 15%

Mr. Market

Hydrometer (
)

CHOTI
.

.

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 64 ~
6/12/45

.......
(margin
)...... ....... .

3
5

5
........

.............
4

wacoal 76
...........

30

..........
......

......(

) wacoal
......

....... .....
lucky textile....

ltx
margin ........

...... margin

margin
........
www.yoyoway.com
~ 65 ~

margin
.......

......

.......

. .....
5
......

6/12/45
TR 19

"

"

fat boy 6/12/45

2

P/E P/BV

PORT

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 66 ~
VALUE INVESTOR
6/12/45
- 6/12/45

()
.
70
2.60
.

....
6/12/45
tat boy
( )

4
1 FE AHC M-CHAI FANCY
CSC VNG SVOA KGI

LOSO
www.yoyoway.com
~ 67 ~
40

350
1

3%

1200 2-3
2-3
4-5

3

30

A
HC 6

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 68 ~
8/12/45

.

..
.

. 4

Value Investor
.

Value

Investor
www.yoyoway.com
~ 69 ~

!

1

12% - 13%

600,000

Value Investor Chairsholder

2%

50
2%
15%

2 * .85 = 1.7% 3%

1.7 3 = 1.3%

1 (
)
1

1

2% 1.7%
1,017,000

1,030,000

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 70 ~
2% 1.7%
3%
.. 1,087,939.50

1,159,274.00

2544

1,402,216.26

228,515

3
5

2%
0% 10

"

www.yoyoway.com
~ 71 ~

"

Chairsholder (

)

..
45
Value Investor

3,000,000

5
20

AYUD
3,735,325.00 6
2545 10%
373,532

"

"

METCO 87.5
BAT-3K 24
11 ..
45 FE
Chairsholder

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 72 ~

BAT-3K 29 METCO 94

1 .. 45
(
24
6 .. 45 BAT-3K 39.25
59.55%
87.5)
,METCO 143
63.42%
FE 150

FE
XD 15 Mr. MARKET XD

130

6 .. 45

146 6 .. 45
169
15.04%

FE
BAT-3K
METCO

"

"

Chairsholder
XD

SET index

Chairsholder

(

HYDROMETER
)

.

Value Investor
www.yoyoway.com
~ 73 ~

9

.

Value Investor

GRAMMY

15 11

..

30%
70%

3/7 ( 42.9%)

10% ( 52.9% )

10% 20%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 74 ~
www.yoyoway.com
~ 75 ~
8/12/45
4 .....
4 3
......
Warren Buffett
.........
......

.....

....... 9 10
....... .

....
....
....

rolex

showroom . .... benz

....... 14 505

......

bts

.........

70%

30%
.......

.......

128000
35.50-36

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 76 ~

28000
35 34.75
......
35
4000 ......

....

......
8 4 9 ........
2004

........

...... ......
.......
..........
15-16%

4
( )

ifct

.......
egcomp

45 .....
....

.....

.....
......

.....

www.yoyoway.com
~ 77 ~
.....

......

.......

......

8/12/45

.56
. .
)
(
..

..

ACC

CPF

ACC

^_^
UFM S&P MAI

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 78 ~

...

8/12/45

" "
"

"

PPPC 2 4 6
60
75

Chairsholer
BOI

Web-site
www.yoyoway.com
~ 79 ~

ACC

..
MONEY TALK
Value Investor
.

8/12/45
30

. . 6

1.

( )

2.

VNG 7 12 )
(

3.
()
()

Comment

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 80 ~

8/12/45

""

()

website www.google.com

..
keywords
8/12/45

www.yoyoway.com
~ 81 ~

4

.

.
..

.

LOSO 8/12/45

EPISODE1-4

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 82 ~

undervalue

FE
P-FCB OCC MATI TR

"
"

"
"

8

99,xxx,xxx
9
8/12/45
-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 83 ~

FE 150 15

135

6
6

16

15

)
--

1
70%
15-20% 10%

EPISODE5
aric 9/12/45
...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 84 ~

1 2 4

[/b]

Interruption Chairsholder

Interruption
Chairsholder ..
-
LOSO

Chairsholder

Sharesholder

http://eng56.hypermart.net/cgi-bin/chat.cgi

Chairsholder

Chairsholder

9

6 7 8
www.yoyoway.com
~ 85 ~

GRAMMY

15 11

..
LOSO
.. 60,000

MID ROAD
FE

1100

FE . ..
BAT-3K METCO

.. . .
..
9/12/45

port.

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 86 ~
fat boy 10/12/45

......

28

10,000 /
50,000

3,000

10% 50% ( Warrant)

100,000
100,000 1,500,000

18
800,000

/ 8,000
..

7000

12

- 15
100,000

800,000

100,000

UNDER VALUE 3 - 5000

1%/ 13/

.....

10

www.yoyoway.com
~ 87 ~
.... 1 999,999
... 1

Golded Stock 10/12/45

1,500,000

fat boy

4,012.50
100,000
4.01 %

4.01 %

10/12/45
fat boy

.....

.......

.. cut loss

........

.......... 13
.....

.....
........

9/12/45

value invester

..44

MBA

()

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 88 ~

Defensive Stock

400 330

70,000
200,000

60
30
10

2 (
2
)

unrealize loss

Set

(
) Download

400
Div. yield 8%
pmonthanun@hotmail.com
9/12/45

www.yoyoway.com
~ 89 ~

"

"

TF TR

:

. ays

10/12/45

"

real value investors

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 90 ~

.........
.......

... Book Value
).....
(
. ......
www.set.or.th listed company
......
www.yoyoway.com
~ 91 ~

warren buffett

buffett

buffett buffet

VI

buffet

buffett

vi
The Warren Buffett Way 1st edition Robert G.

Hagstrom buffett

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 92 ~
The Warren Buffett Way 2st edition Robert G.

Hagstrom
edition
update

buffett

edition 1

The Essential Buffett Robert G.

Hagstrom .
Buffet
2
How Buffett dose it James

Pardoe

Buffet Buffett

Buffett
Buffett

The New Buffettology Mary Buffett

Buffett

make sense

. the warren buffet way the new buffettology 2

2

buffett

buffett

buffett (

)

www.yoyoway.com
~ 93 ~
buffett

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 94 ~

2
2

VI

VI

1

VI

30%
VI
5
3

VI

30% 5

6
6

port
1
VI 6

5
6
6
2.3
www.yoyoway.com
~ 95 ~
VI 2
1.
(
)
2.

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 96 ~
Saturday, July 01, 2006
2

(

8
)
(

)
FV = PV (1+r)^t
FV - ()
PV - ()
r (%)
t ( )

( 22)
30
8
2

pv = 2
t=8
r
fv = 1
23%
8

3,000
36,000 13.5%

www.yoyoway.com
~ 97 ~
8
1 rate
40 4.2 50 15.9
60 57 ...

15%
60
89

3000 5000
15% 60 port 121

2 (
2
)
1. (
)
2. ( )
3.

( )

-

-

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 98 ~
%

..
1 30
.

Foundation Finance

^__^
www.yoyoway.com
~ 99 ~
Monday, July 03, 2006
GFPT

CP

P/E

P/BV Dividend Yield

PE
6 PBV 1 Yield 5%

10
PE PBV Yield

GFPT
.. step
Download file 56-1 .

ratio

...

4

50%

40

40 48
....

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 100 ~
(

) GFPT 48

40
VI ..

40 39 38 36
Taladhoon (
)

GFPT

4

50%
36 35 34

%

33 32 ... GFPT

..

28 30% ...

1

GPFT

PE PBV Yield
-

-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 101 ~

-

Q1 Q2 Q3

-

-
50% port

-

post ....

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 102 ~
Sunday, July 09, 2006
(Mental Skill)

""

Snake bite effect

-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 103 ~
-

-

3

port Broker

file excel port
port

key

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 104 ~
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
-
2
-
3
-

- (Information)

a 10 b
- (Opinion)
take over 20 d

www.yoyoway.com
~ 105 ~
Sunday, July 16, 2006
OEM

OEM (original equipment manufacturer)

OEM

Brand

OEM

B B
A
-

OEM

OEM

OEM

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 106 ~
OEM
OEM

VI ) OEM
STANLY (

100%

OEM

STANLY

SNC

OEM

compressor 100%

100%

SNC

SNC
SNC

S
NC

30%
OEM

OEM
www.yoyoway.com
~ 107 ~
Friday, July 21, 2006

2

1. Discounting Model

Dividend discounted model

Discount
cash flow

2. Relative Model

p/e, p/bv, p/fcf, p/sales
Discount

Discount

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 108 ~

Relative

...

Relative

Discount
2

Discount

Relative ..
www.yoyoway.com
~ 109 ~

P/E ratio
discount

discount

discount
()

(

http://thaivi.com/webboard/viewtopic.php?t=18989)
Relative
(
update

)
Relative

P/E ratio P
E p/e

10 2

pe

pe

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 110 ~
a

b
c
d
4 pe 6
b

6
6

c

6

a

2 a

pe
pe

(

)
pe

ilink
pe ilink 8

49

e 1.2 8
1.2 9.6

49) 1.2
pe 8 e (

www.yoyoway.com
~ 111 ~
Wednesday, August 02, 2006

P/E ratio 2
pe

pe e

e

e

8 4

2 49
50

e

2

..

Track

conservative

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 112 ~
(

)

% (

)

(

)

10%
10% (
)
eps
pe

....

(

)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 113 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 114 ~
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
: (

vote
)

100

(

) ilink

ilink
Opportunity Day:

4

www.thaiinvestors.com
www.thaivi.com/webboard search

opportunity day opp day

www.yoyoway.com
~ 115 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 116 ~
Monday, August 14, 2006

P/E ratio 3

pe

pe
check list
: ,
,

:
supplier,
:

, , (
:

)
,

(
F)

pe
www.yoyoway.com
~ 117 ~

(
C)

5% pe

5-6
(
B)
5-15% pe
6-9
( A)

15%
pe
9-12
(Super stock)

20-30%

supplier

pe

12
20
Guideline

Blog

. pe

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 118 ~
Saturday, August 19, 2006
pe
pe

psl
6 ( ) 50
tta 10 40

psl 50 30

( 35-38 ) tta 20

pe ?

pe
(
)

pe pe
3-4
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pe pe
www.yoyoway.com
~ 119 ~
pe

pe

.

( )
( ) pe

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 120 ~
Monday, August 28, 2006
pe ()
...

Invisible Hand
Greenbull pe

(

) Invisible Hand
( )
_______________________________
Invisible Hand

copy

eps 1

p/e 15 15

20%
1.2*15 18

p/e

eps growth eps

p/e p/e

2

www.yoyoway.com
~ 121 ~
MINT p/e 10-15

10-15%
mint
40% p/e mint 20-25
mint p/e 15
mint
amata 44-45 p/e 4-6
p/e 15-20

p/e 10-20

46 p/e 6-8

upside downside

downside

10
3 3

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 122 ~

qualitative

p/e p/e

(

)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 123 ~
Thursday, August 31, 2006
pe

Invisible Hand
_______________________________
Invisible Hand

2
1. commodity cyclical

commodity

cycle
demand supply

demand

supply
cycle

demand supply

2. economic cyclical

/

commodity
switching

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 124 ~
economic cyclical

cyclical
p/e
commodity cyclical p/e

p/e
peak cyclical
p/e

non-cyclical
non-cyclical p/e eps adjust
fully diluted eps

warrant esop

p/e
5-10
5 10-20

30%
100%

hit and run

p/e

p/e
www.yoyoway.com
~ 125 ~
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
pe
()
Invisible Hand
pe
( Invisible Hand

)
______________________________
By Invisible Hand

% 5-10 3
1. market growth
2. market share growth
3. net profit margin

1. Market growth

100

5

market

GDP
gdp
2. Market share growth market share
market share %
market
70%
share

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 126 ~
share

market share

barrier to
market share

entry
market share

market share

market share
market share

market

share upside downside

market share

market share
3. Net margin
net
margin
net margin

room margin

economy of

scale
net margin

roa roe

margin too

good to be true barrier
net margin
to entry

growth
www.yoyoway.com
~ 127 ~

1. Market growth Market share
barrier to entry
super stocks

market share

barrier to entry

2. Market growth Market share

market share 2
upside 1
LH 43
market share

market share 7%
concept market share
2530% 46

Lh

10
3. Market growth
Market share

market share
market share

BEC 43-44 market
share TV 40% TV

market share
7 ITV
9
bec
BEC 25 15
4. Market growth
Market share

market
share
market

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 128 ~
share

market
share

market share

market growth

90%

10%

short cut 100%
www.yoyoway.com
~ 129 ~
Saturday, September 09, 2006
Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch
Warren Buffett

( Buffett

) Lynch
5
1.
- 2-4%

Lynch
coca-cola, P&G, Colgate-Palmolive
2.
-

10-12%

30-50% Lynch
port

3.
- Lynch

20-25% Lynch 10-40
4.
-

5.
-

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 130 ~

1 5

-

6.

Lynch

One up on WallStreet
Lynch

( )

(
0.5-1 )
1-2
Port

www.yoyoway.com
~ 131 ~
Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Blog

Blog

Blog

Blog

yoyo

Blog
(
2-3

)

link

.
(

)

" 2
1.5

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 132 ~

......"

2 13
( ) 1.7
13
link

www.yoyoway.com
~ 133 ~
"
"

" "

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 134 ~

www.yoyoway.com
~ 135 ~

400-500

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 136 ~
www.yoyoway.com
~ 137 ~

10

http://www.sakulthai.com/dsakulcolumnDetailsql.asp?stcolumni
d=4985&stissueid=2707&stcolcatid=2&stauthorid=159

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 138 ~
:b) 20 2549

(
)
19 2549 : Set Index 702.56
19 2549 : My Port Index 17.1
20 2549

(
)

Set Index

19/5/1992 set 732.89 667.84 8.88%
20/5/1992 set 677.37

1.43%
21/5/1992 set 738.67

9.05%
www.yoyoway.com
~ 139 ~
""

(
-

)

""
"

() offer

()
"
(bid)

""

bid-offer
5.00-5.05
5.00 :

5
5.05 :
5.05
5.00

""

9
0.05

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 140 ~

4
0.05

4

0.05

5 80%
5.05 78%

Ticon 6.2

12
6.15

6.50

6.3

7

(6.2)

17

) 5 3

www.yoyoway.com
~ 141 ~
Saturday, September 30, 2006

"

95%

"

-

Bias

(

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 142 ~
5
volume)
5

()
1

Learning Curve
1

1

...

www.yoyoway.com
~ 143 ~
Tuesday, October 10, 2006

....

59-2
.
(

)

. ilink
http://capital.sec.or.th/webapp/corp_fin/daily59.php
Update 2

59-2

thaivi.com

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 144 ~

59-2

- 2
2

1-5 (
( )
10 )

10

. 59-2

59-2 10%
www.yoyoway.com
~ 145 ~
Thursday, October 12, 2006
set 3
19 2549 : Set Index 702.56
19 2549 : My Port Index 17.1
20 2549
12 2549: Set Index 709.67
12 2549: My Port Index 19.1 :)

set
3
Port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 146 ~
1

1

vote

1 ( )

2005 25,000

Berkshire Hathaway Warren
Buffett
Buffett

1
1 1 ( 4
)

Warren Buffett
link

http://warrenbuffettfan.blogspot.com/
www.yoyoway.com
~ 147 ~
Thursday, October 19, 2006
()

59-2 ..
..

TICON
ticon

9 (
7-8 48) 2
8 TFUND

...

CNS
.. (

) .. ticon

.... 59-2 59-2 ticon

( 5-6 )

ticon

..
ticon

......

18-19 ... (

)

ticon

2

ticon

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 148 ~
( )
ticon

(

)
...

( company visit) .
...

TTA

....

TTA PSL RCL (
PSL )
demand

supply

psl

6 50 tta 10 50

..... psl

( )
.. psl 50
TTA
38 T_T ...
psl tta tta
..

10%
...
(
)
35
tta
www.yoyoway.com
~ 149 ~
20
40-50

27 ...

...

-

MIDA
-

tvo (
2 )

-

.... check

spali ttl

( )
utp

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 150 ~
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
The Intelligent Investor

:
The Intelligent Investor
Berkshire Hathaway

CEO Legg Mason Capital Management

Longleaf Partners

Century Management

The
Intelligent Investor
, ,
, ,

Fortune

Value Investing

Amazon.com
yoyo

ilink

http://thaivi.com/webboard/viewtopic.php?t=20643&start=0

www.thaivi.com

www.yoyoway.com
~ 151 ~

Internet

Webboard

ilink A
1
port (
)

AMR
ilink

900 ilink

ilink
2 ilink

( ilink
ilink
)

2

AMR ilink

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 152 ~

ilink

AIT

( )

AIT
( A
C+ B)

eps 3.26 18 (
) pe
5.5

pe

10-11
AIT

AIT 14-17

1600 2000 (
1600
1160 )
2000

10
1.5

1600
(

) eps

1.24 3.26
eps 4.5

( 20%)
AIT C+ B pe 7-9
www.yoyoway.com
~ 153 ~
pe 7 - 31.50 **

pe 8 - 36.00
pe 9 - 40.60
pe

(IRCP, MFEC)

49.50
11
AIT

70 ( )

13

Blog

( ) (

)
AIT 2 port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 154 ~
Thursday, November 02, 2006
5 49 updated

(Thai Investors Day) 5 2549

3
10.30 12.30 .
:
1. .
2 . "Fund Manager
" .

3.
""
4.

.

(

)
3

-

-

(

)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 155 ~
. -

.

2
-

0.5-1.5

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 156 ~
Tuesday, November 07, 2006

www.settrade.com >
> click
Analyst Concensus

(

)

...(

)
56-1

100%

www.yoyoway.com
~ 157 ~

Conservative
( )
"

"

pe
a

pe 8-10 5
40
50
40
40 ( 1.3
)

30.7

40

50 50

Bias ()

KH
4

4.5 4.5 5

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 158 ~
5 5.6 6 7

8

www.yoyoway.com
~ 159 ~
Sunday, November 12, 2006

... Relax

Relax

Blog

( 11 .. 49)

Blog

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 160 ~

Blog
post
www.thaivi.com

thaivi

http://thai-value-investor.blogspot.com/
3 www.yoyoway.com, google
( Keyword
search

search

Keyword

) ,
pantip.com ( ) ...
www.settrade.com
link
settrade
www.yoyoway.com
~ 161 ~
Friday, November 17, 2006

"

"

zaza

( 555)

( )
3-4

1
56-1

10 15
-

-

-

- ...

... 3-5

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 162 ~

..

2

1.

...
2.

internet
www.yoyoway.com
~ 163 ~
Saturday, November 25, 2006

VI 3 10 20
6
port
..

....

make sense

5-6

4 3

3% port (

)

1 port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 164 ~

2
1.
2. 1
...

...

www.yoyoway.com
~ 165 ~
Wednesday, December 06, 2006

port

vi
..
... vi

1

( update blog .. )

....

port
2-3

8 ...

1 .

8

1-2
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 166 ~

1
(

)
port

vi

1/2 1

vi
(

Buffett

10

vi
)
1/2 1

www.yoyoway.com
~ 167 ~
Thursday, December 14, 2006

(

)

VI

VI

.

..

""

""

.

port (

100% )

2

7 (

)

7

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 168 ~

7.4
13 .. 50

..

13 .. 50

74 7

74 7.4 x %
7.4 = 7.0 (1+x/100)^(74/365)
x 32%
( )
....

7.58
48%
48%

(
) 32%

UOB

... (13 ..) UOB

www.yoyoway.com
~ 169 ~
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Ouy (
) I did it again.

Blog

19 2549 100

Breaker

set 10% set

10% break
break 2

30
100 .
1 30 1

30
20

100 100

100

143
43

8
6

warrant

warrant

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 170 ~
tfund
2

0.80

5

6 ...

margin ( ) port

(
camry 2 )

(
)

port

Force sell

Grand

sale

?

.

Sale

Sale Sale

Ouy
30%

www.yoyoway.com
~ 171 ~
....

Ouy, please, don't do it again.

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 172 ~
Monday, December 25, 2006

....

2

2

....

( VI)

VI

ptt pttep scc top
...

"

" "

"

vi
www.yoyoway.com
~ 173 ~

"
"
vi

".. " "

"

....

vi

The Intelligence Investor

)
(

2
20

" 20
" ...

- 2

"
"
-

"

"
-

-

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 174 ~

"
"

" "
"
"

.....
.

..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 175 ~

Year 2007

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 176 ~
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
...

"
"

3
...

19/9/49

30%
() 3
... 19/9

3
3

19/9

www.yoyoway.com
~ 177 ~

Classic

30%

108 Breaker

10%

30%

ticon cpn
-

(
30%

)

-

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 178 ~

Mark to Market

solution

(

:p)

( 20 )
30%

-

-

...

shopping

-

-
( B2C)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 179 ~

Consumer)

..

port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 180 ~
Saturday, January 13, 2007
+
Blog .... update
blog 10

IS
case

.....
link

thanwa@hotmail.com

.

value investor

www.yoyoway.com
~ 181 ~

(capital gain)

10

70,000 (1)
.
10% 70,000 x 10% = 7,000 (2)
(1) (2) 70,000 7,000 = 63,000 (3)
70,000 x 3 / 7 = 30,000 (4) *, **
(2) + (4) 7,000 + 30,000 = 37,000 (5)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 182 ~

(1)+(4) 70,000 + 30,000 = 100,000
(6)
= 30,000
= 70,000
80,000
***, ****

40 (1) 60,000

0.5

100,000 x 0.5% = 500 (7)

(5) (7) 37,000 500 = 36,500 (8)
(3)+(8) 63,000 + 36,500 = 99,500 (9)

*

30

3/7

37

** .

*** 80,000
2546
99,500
63,000
36,500

30

3/7
25
1/5

25 / ( 100-25)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 183 ~

PTTEP
PTTEP
..

2541
50
PTTEP
July 31, 2003

--------------------- ThaiVI

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 184 ~
Sunday, January 21, 2007
vs
...

flip-flop 30%
:)

mba ...

..

..

....

..

-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 185 ~
- ...

Basel2

Key success factor
..

...

Circle of

Competence

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 186 ~

fit

...

1

resume

1-2

....
..

....
.

...

www.yoyoway.com
~ 187 ~

....

Credit
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 188 ~
Sunday, January 28, 2007

100

...

..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 189 ~

( )

ptt pttep scc

100 100

10000

100

50%

200

Set50 50

400

IQ

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 190 ~

10
Focus

100%

port

10-20 step )
www.yoyoway.com
~ 191 ~
Sunday, February 04, 2007
VI

VI

...

VI

"

"

100%

3 P/E, P/BV Dividend
Yield
DCF (Discount Cashflow)
4

2

P/BV DCF Dividend discout

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 192 ~

CHUO

Yield

Yield

(Yiled )

30% Stanly
3-5

Yield

www.yoyoway.com
~ 193 ~
...
.

Yield

"
"

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 194 ~
Monday, February 12, 2007
(Siam)

siam

C+

.. . tvi bizweek

..

(

)

..

siam

..
..
3.96-4
.. 3.3

..

siam furniture
Lucky

Q3 (
Q1
-) surprise
..
800 300

0.85 ...
www.yoyoway.com
~ 195 ~

Knockdown

Tsunami 17000
10000 Q3 ....
Q4 10000

Q4 ...

siam
OT ..
(

) ..
10000

4 ... eps 9
1 4 0.50
4 pe 2.67
1.50

..
... ..
.

Valueway pe

vi ..

. ..
pe pe

.. (

) pe ..

..
..

Q4

..

...
pe

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 196 ~

Knockdown .. eps

0.50 eps
1 ..
pe
7-8

pe 7-8 eps 1.5 1

pe 0.50
3.5-4 1

siam
3.5-4
1

4.5-5 ..

...

..

Knockdown

.. Demand

...
...

siam

..

eps
pe ...

.. 3

3.5 3.6 3.7 4 ..

.. 4 5 ..

4.5-5 .. 5
port

..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 197 ~
2 50 ..

siam
siam

...
pe
.. pe ..

..
= (eps x pe ) +

..

siam

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 198 ~
Sunday, February 18, 2007

...

...

25
/us 40-50 /us

us us
1 us 25
1 us 50 ..

...
us

1 us

us
25
50
us ..

us

1

..

...

40 /us
36/us us
10%

us (
us

www.yoyoway.com
~ 199 ~
us

)

..

..

a us 100%
100 70 ( gross margin
30%) 10
20

..
6 14
us () 40 36 10%
10%
10%
14 12.6

(

10%
)
.. 100
10% 10% 90

70

20 10
10
3 7 ---
14
10%

50% ....

us

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 200 ~

..

us
..
us
us
..

us

step ...
..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 201 ~
Tuesday, February 27, 2007

port
A ...

B

pe
4-7 ( ) ....

...
pe

8-9
port

port

...

Brand

( ) (
)
Discount store ....

..
pe 10

.. pe
20 - 30

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 202 ~
style 2
2
1.

2.

..

A

A

pe

pe 20 30

20-30%

....
2

2

pe

pe

pe
4-7

pe
.....

www.yoyoway.com
~ 203 ~

...
pe

....

pe

pe

pe

15-20
10-15 ....

pe 10
pe
pe
20

pe 8-10
pe
20-25 ....
pe

..

pe
...

pe
20
10 15 ...
...
2

pe

pe
...
..
...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 204 ~
Monday, March 19, 2007
...
update
blog

...

up blog

..

2-3
2-3
....
50

MAI Market Cap

. .
..

...
www.yoyoway.com
~ 205 ~
..
3-4 port

port focus

6-7

.... port

port
...
port

mai

....

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 206 ~
Thursday, March 29, 2007

...

...

...

...

(

www.yoyoway.com
~ 207 ~

)

- Trading

Trading

-

(
)

-
....

...

..

...

-
esop

..

..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 208 ~

-

..
-

-

+

bill
(
)
+

+

..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 209 ~
Friday, April 13, 2007
VI
Roadmap
Value Investort

....
Roadmap

vi

10
...

...
vi

...

step

vi
1.

vi

, one up on wallstreet, , The Warren

Buffett Way

vi

vi

vi

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 210 ~
2.

load www.sec.or.th

.

load

se-ed aprint

mati

idea

. ( )
se-ed

3-4 )
(
(

)

3 ( 56-1

3

)

load
(

www.yoyoway.com
~ 211 ~
3.

....

vi 1
"

" Buffett
"
50%
"

demand (
) supply ( )

vi

""

(

"
)"

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 212 ~
Thursday, April 26, 2007
VI 2 ()
Roadmap

vi

....
4.

Pocket
56-1, annual report,

Book

....

..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 213 ~

Automatic

2

Key Success Factor

vi

..

.....

5. :

....

3
1.
2.
3.
4
1 2

.....

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 214 ~

conservative

.....

..

...

...

100%
(

)

...

...

..

......
www.yoyoway.com
~ 215 ~

5
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
vi
...
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 216 ~
Saturday, May 19, 2007
VI

....

1.

2.
3.

- IT city Q1/50 29.6 Q1/49
36.9 ...
IT

Notebook

www.yoyoway.com
~ 217 ~
(
)

...

..

Q1

-
...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 218 ~

VI

www.yoyoway.com
~ 219 ~
Wednesday, May 30, 2007

..

.. vi

vi

1.

-

vi

.....

..

A super stock

..

10
11

.. 11
warren

buffet

Blog
...
snc
eps

1.1

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 220 ~
pe 9 ..

9.9

snc 10

snc eps

... snc pe
9-12 (

)

9

9

...

pe 12 ...

pe
pe
......

pe
9-12
pe
7-8

2.

-

port

...
% upside

10
12 % upside
20%
10
14

% upside 40%

...

3.
-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 221 ~

...

..

2
eps

eps 1.6 ....

eps 1.6
vi
3
...

-
4.

....

2 .. 1.

2.

..
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 222 ~

> click
www.settrade.com >
Analyst Concensus

(

)

...(

)
56-1

100%

www.yoyoway.com
~ 223 ~

Conservative
( )
"

"

pe
a

pe 8-10 5
40
50
40
40 ( 1.3
)

30.7

40

50 50

Bias ()

KH
4

4.5 4.5 5
5 5.6 6 7

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 224 ~
www.yoyoway.com
~ 225 ~
2
Ryuga
..
$$$ "" $$$
http://www.thaivi.com/webboard/viewtopic.php?t=25762&start
=0

..

.

Fact

...

:)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 226 ~
CEO Warren Buffett

...

"

" Robert P.Miles

.. 2 ( )
Warren Buffett Annual report

buffett

buffet buffet
Annual report

1-2

buffett
...

buffett

..

buffett

.

"Strong Buy"
www.yoyoway.com
~ 227 ~

thaivi

..
____________________________
VI

15%

50-100%

49

50

PE

10-12% 1

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 228 ~
10%

PE 2-3

PE
www.yoyoway.com
~ 229 ~

3
Super stock

http://www.thaivi.com/
PE

3
PE

PE 6-10

PE

PE

PE

PE

PE
PE
10
3

PE

EPS

1 PE
8

8 EPS

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 230 ~

EPS

PE
EPS

VI

Good Governance

EPS

EPS

PE

Margin of Safety

30%

www.yoyoway.com
~ 231 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 232 ~
Tuesday, July 17, 2007

.. DVD
...
Thaivi ( )

...

..

..

2

2 .. screen

400

(

)

1
.. 1
www.yoyoway.com
~ 233 ~

2

""

(

)

focus
..

2

..
..

"
..
5
" ...........

focus

..
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 234 ~
2

(

)

(

)

. Circle of
Competence

www.yoyoway.com
~ 235 ~
P/E P/BV ROE

VI

3

...

3
P/E - Price/Earning per Share
P/E 5
P/E
5 ... P/E

P/BV - Price/Book Value Book Value

(Equity) ...

BV (P/BV )

P/BV

1
ROE - Return on Equity
Buffett

ROE

...
ROE

12-15%

Ratio 3
..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 236 ~
P/E = Price/EPS = Price/(Net Profit/Number of Share)

P/BV = P/BV = Price/(Equity/Number of Share)
ROE = Return/Equity = (Net Profit/Equity)
P/BV = P/E x ROE

P/E P/BV ROE

1. P/E
10 ROE 5%
0.05 P/BV 0.5 P/E

P/BV 0.5
ROE 5%

2. P/E 10 ROE 20%
P/BV 2 P/BV

1

ROE
20%

1 2

P/BV ROE
...

2
ROE P/BV ...

P/BV P/E ROE

Port 4

P/BV 3-4
( P/BV 1
) ROE 30-40%

ROE
P/BV

2
P/BV P/E

2 Buffett

www.yoyoway.com
~ 237 ~
ROE

P/E 2

Buffett
...

ROE P/BV ? -1.

P/E P/BV
( 10 )

P/BV

2.

ROE

P/BV

ROE

Cycle

ROE P/BV

ROE

100%
10

ROE

.. ..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 238 ~
Monday, July 30, 2007
ROE ()
4

1. -

2. -

3. -

-
4.

4

4

ROE

A -

ROE
E

E

(
)

www.yoyoway.com
~ 239 ~

(Return)

ROE A
A
( ROE ) A
Growth Stock

B -

D/E

2.5

D/E

E

( )
(
)

ROE

B

cycle

B

C -

100%
(R ) E

(
)
ROE

ROE

15% C
D - C

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 240 ~
( E )
E
R

ROE
4
ROE

4
ROE
4

ROE D/E
ROE D/E

...

ROE

ROE

ROE

D/E (dept/equity) D/E

"High Risk High Return"

D/E
ROE

D/E

ROE

(
)

D/E
High Risk ROE

Low
www.yoyoway.com
~ 241 ~
Return

D/E
ROE

Low Risk High Return Port
. ROE

ROE

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 242 ~

set settrade

50%

Motivation

50%

Market Cap

BJC

TCC
50%

ThaiBev

ticon

www.yoyoway.com
~ 243 ~

snc (

) ticon

snc

snc holding

snc
50%

....

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 244 ~

thaivi
************************************

snc oppday
snc
47 oppday

48
snc oppday

...

56-1

snc
snc

-

-

snc
www.yoyoway.com
~ 245 ~
snc
-
-
-
snc

mini
MD ( woody mini MBA )
snc
3.30-3.40

snc

..

snc

3.4

snc

(
90% )

snc

snc

100%
snc

snc
oem

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 246 ~

100
100
snc

1 port ...
snc
oppday

snc

snc
3.3 3.5 3.8 4 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

49
snc

6-7

5

GPM

snc
oem

snc

metal sheet
"" snc

snc

7

GPM

snc

www.yoyoway.com
~ 247 ~
oem
- GPM

48 -49
1

snc
8
1
snc 10 2 GPM 20%

snc
10 snc
12 2
GPM 16.7% GPM
- Metal Sheet
Break
even Break

order

(

10
snc 5

)

(

(
" "

)

50 snc

7

1

oppday Q1

economy of scale

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 248 ~

admin

admin ...

7 8
9 10 11 12 13
visit 14 .. 50

snc

( 13) snc
16 16
13 ....
..
vision

13.5 ... 13.6

18 ...

hint

...

....
500

snc

3 .. snc

PO 100
www.yoyoway.com
~ 249 ~
1000 ... :shock:
1 ...

...

..
dilute

RO

...

(

)

..
RO ... "

"
snc
12
18 1 floor ...
snc

dilute ..

....

PO

.. PO
PO ...
snc
49

...

....
" "

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 250 ~
..

...
...

Happy Ending
www.yoyoway.com
~ 251 ~
Monday, October 01, 2007

vi

2

The
vi

Intelligence Investor

Philip Fisher
Common stock Uncommon Profit

vi

warren
buffett buffett

80% fisher 20% (
buffett
20 fisher 80

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 252 ~
)

2

"

"
www.yoyoway.com
~ 253 ~
Saturday, November 17, 2007

2

1.
pe - pe

pe pe

2.
Growth

growth

25%

2

...

(

)

6 eps
1 pe
6 growth
pe
8 ( pe

pe

)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 254 ~
- 25%

pe 6

25%
pe 8 1
-

10
1.25
67% 1
-
(

port )

pe
8 10
12 15
25%

pe 8 10 12 15 10 12.5 15 18.75
6 67%

108% 150% 212.5%
3 snc uec

ums
3

pe

8 growth 3
25-30%

pe 6-7
pe 3
12
(ums
15
) snc 7 14 uec 12
40 () ums 15 100
( )
www.yoyoway.com
~ 255 ~
1

25%
-

pe
10%

pe

10 10% eps 1.1
6
8.8 11

- 25% pe
6 8
25% 67%
2

2 3 port
100% (

100%
3
)

20-25% pe
-

15 20
growth pe

growth

growth 25% 5%
pe ( pe

pe )

- growth pe

10% pe

10%
pe

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 256 ~
10%

2

1

port ( 50%

)

pe
12 pe

growth

Peter Lynch PEG
.
.... p/e growth .. ..
www.yoyoway.com
~ 257 ~
Thursday, November 29, 2007
()
...

...
..

...

TR
TR
..

PE
TR

..
Grasim

..

Gross Profit
Margin 22-23 %

50
..
..
Google

Cotton
.. Cotton
.. Cotton

Cotton
..
Demand

Supply
...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 258 ~

3
..
50 1 ..

51 1

..
(
....

( Cotton
)
Growth
25-30%

.. Growth 3035%
2 4.4

2 8.8

40 PE 4.5

Growth
PE

44
3 3.2 ..

2.2
50
...
13-14%
.....

( 4)

Gross Margin 23

30% ....

(

)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 259 ~
....

TR

Trade PE
5-6 ..

70
... (
59%)

3 8

4
3 ( 3
3.2
)
TR 11 70 Trade PE
6.4 ... (
PE TR

56 6-7 )

3
3.2
51
5

3.2 ..
4 ... (

)

16 ... 15 .. 6870
PE 4.67
...

PE

68-69
4 3
4
....

5
.. ... 4
... 15 PE 8 120

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 260 ~
44 172%
...

Update
... Cotton

.... 4

3
....

TR 4 ....
.. O_O 4.4
...

(

) ...

Q 1300 Q1-1418, Q2-1596, Q3-1915 Q4
2336 Margin
Q3

30% 37% ....

%

..

(
+

)

.. (

ThaiVI
" "
)
5

... 20 ..

PE 8 ...
160 ... 44 ...
264% 1
www.yoyoway.com
~ 261 ~
..

....
.1 ..

Bias

..
(
....

)

.2
...

.. PE

...
..

..

..

PE

.. PE
... ...

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 262 ~

Year 2008
www.yoyoway.com
~ 263 ~
Thursday, January 10, 2008
50
50 138%

snc demco uec ums tr

2 trt brock
pe
-
trt

pe 4

job ..

4.4 4.8 ... (
)
4.8 4.2
port

trt

-
49 200 %
50
..

- snc
..

..

..

1

...
snc
- brock asset ...

asset play
unlock value

pe

time frame

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 264 ~
..

pe

growth
asset play
time frame ..
..

.. brock ...

%

time frame

-

.. brock

..
20%

-

Barrier to Entry

2
spec

demco

.. 51
"

" 50

50

1

www.yoyoway.com
~ 265 ~
Port style yoyo

port

port

port

port ...

port

3-4 ...

3-4

port

100%

port
port

port
Style port
Portfolio Management
Finance MBA

:)

-

Excel

( = x )
"
port"
-
Column 1

port 100
%

" " "Upside
-
Column 2

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 266 ~

Gain"

Upside Gain

100

""
-
Colunm 2

""
A

10 15
1-10 (

)
Upside Gain 10
%

1. 3 Port

port 4-6
(
4 )
()
2.

Port
"

port" ""
Port

Port 2
3.

4.

www.yoyoway.com
~ 267 ~

Port

port 1
TR

TR

Port

TR

TR

TR

5.

port
6. Port 4 5

port

- Port

-
port

1-2

10

port
...
1

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 268 ~
- port

1 2

port
4
port

()
(

) port

-
...

port
...
4
...

port

upside
upside

port

(

vi "

"

)

-

port

www.yoyoway.com
~ 269 ~
5 .
.1 port
com

port

.2

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 270 ~

...

...
1.

2. ..
2

Asset play (

)

3 charan spsu brock
-

charan +

70-80
40
2
...
(
45

2-3 )

spsu

.

+ -

www.yoyoway.com
~ 271 ~
12-14

..
7 ...
spsu

Honda
Yamaha 6

brock

...

brock (
..

) 3
4

1
1000
...
...

1

Asset Play

Asset play

3.

..

(

)

...

"
10% )
(
"

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 272 ~
....

:)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 273 ~
Thursday, February 21, 2008

ilink ait snc tr

concept

...

(
)

Concept
Tips

.

...

(

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 274 ~
Monday, April 21, 2008
Q&A 1

Blog

Blog Website
Thaivi.com

comment

:b
Web.
Q. yoyo

A.

www.thaivi.com/webboard

post

http://capital.sec.or.th/webapp/corp_fin2/cgibin/cfis_docall.php#top link
formal information annual report (
)
), 56-1 (

http://www.settrade.com/

update

www.yoyoway.com
~ 275 ~

Q.

yoyo

A.

(

),
IR ( oppday, company visit
)

volume

pe

(

)

100%

snc
uec ums

pe 4-5 pe
8
..

pe
12
pe 4 pe 12

(

)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 276 ~
Q.

(

A.
""

10%

56-1

style

upside

""

vi

www.yoyoway.com
~ 277 ~
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Evolution 46
Style
(

2
)
46 (
45 )

156%

117% 39%
-

VI

P/E P/BV Dividend Yield
(

)
-

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 278 ~
46 Metco
-

Electronic

130 250

P/E P/BV

GFPT
metco

gfpt

Ratio

-

egcomp mbk p-fcb
pha wacoal tr pr fe charan amata patkol tta psl ticon astl

PE PBV

46

Set

( )
Criteria 2 P/E P/BV

www.yoyoway.com
~ 279 ~

(
)
skill
(

)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 280 ~
Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Internet

...
"
-

Subprime "
"
-

Subprime"
...

Subprime (

)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 281 ~

-

50
$100

$150

TV

$250
-
$140
120 ...

..

100
Demand
Opec

2

...

...

(
PTT PTTEP)
Fact

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 282 ~
www.yoyoway.com
~ 283 ~
Market Share

(
) Supplier

...

STANLY

90% OEM

2 Supplier

Stanly

Stanly

10%

1.

4-6
2. p/e

stanly

Market share

Market stanly

Share

SSC
( )

Pepsi ...

pepsi
2-3
pepsi coke

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 284 ~

....
ssc

2

Market share

... Market share pepsi

Market share coke

...

0-5%
(

)

Market share
-

-

pe
-

...

...

:)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 285 ~
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Market Share

Share

Share

Share

Share

( )

-

-
-

-

A

A

A

10%

. A

Share
5%

A
()
A

-
A Order

(

A A
)
-

A

Order
A

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 286 ~
Share

Share
1. MCS

MCS

10-15% .

Order MCS Backlog

MCS Share %

MCS

2. UEC

MCS Order UEC

2 ..
- MCS
Capacity

4-5

- UEC
2

Capacity

(
)

www.yoyoway.com
~ 287 ~
2 UEC
... MCS

MCS

1.

...

2.

Order

Capacity

Drop
...

Drop

...

-
Share

-

-
Share

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 288 ~
...

""

/

-

-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 289 ~
...

150 110

100
....

....

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 290 ~
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Beating the Street

Peter
Beating the Street
Lynch VI

One up on Wall Street

Beating
5

One up

Beating

One up

Stock Selection
Beating

20
Peter Lynch Barron

Lynch

One up
VI
Beating the Street

(
2

)
www.yoyoway.com
~ 291 ~
Monday, October 20, 2008
Margin
thaivi

Blog

http://www.thaivi.com/webboard/viewtopic.php?t=32466&post
days=0&postorder=asc&start=0

:)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 292 ~

thaivi.com

http://www.thaivi.com/webboard/viewtopic.php?p=467433#46
7433
Amadeus wrote:

(

)

Yoyo

...

Amadeus

..

1. ...

2.
...
www.yoyoway.com
~ 293 ~

3. ...

demand

demand

4.
..

Key success factor

...

3

discount

..

-

- Backlog
-

- yield

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 294 ~

Year 2009
www.yoyoway.com
~ 295 ~
Friday, February 20, 2009
update blog

Oct 2008 up

post

yoyoway Blog

Up
idea
:)
post

(
Buffett ...

- :

%

Growth
30%
..
- :
Margin
of Safety
Cash flow

+

Style

Value Investing

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 296 ~
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
vi

...
2

vi

.... 2

..

...

vi ...
1.
(
2.
)
3.
3

www.yoyoway.com
~ 297 ~
(
)

(

)

1 2

...

...

""

...

...
...

. ..

...

...

....

)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 298 ~
...

...
.
....

www.yoyoway.com
~ 299 ~
Thursday, August 27, 2009

Blog ..

___ Qoute ____

yoyo

VI

2.
1.

3. ....
___ End qoute_________
VI ...

..

...

7 10

6

5 ....
....
6 ?

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 300 ~
- 7 ()
VI

..
7 6

"
"
VI

.. VI

VI

excel

Cross check

.. lot

upside
upside

..
excel
port
Upside
www.yoyoway.com
~ 301 ~
Friday, September 04, 2009

w eight
(

Growth

...

LPN
Backlog

2
0.4 Yield 20%

lpn

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 302 ~

LPN

PS

ps
..
2

. .

...

"

"
Key
...

...

2
1
...

..

Pre-sale

Ratio

lpn ps spali siri

ratio

pe

www.yoyoway.com
~ 303 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 304 ~

Load

...

...

Case

- A

100 10
10 (
10%

eps 1 4 )
24 p/e 6 (
)
p/e

-
Q2
150 15

50%

Port 24

15 eps 6
www.yoyoway.com
~ 305 ~
p/e 4
- Q3 50
1.67
10
case
...?
- Q2

Order
Q3 2 50 ..

100 150
-
Q3 Q2 50 Q3
50
- Q2
Net Profit Margin (NPM)

10%

Vol

NPM

NPM Q2

10%

NPM

...
A

-
100
80

20 GPM 20%
10 (

Fix cost

)
10 NPM 10%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 306 ~
- 2
150
125

25 GPM 16.67
10
15 NPM 10%
- 3
50
41.67

8.33 GPM 16.67%

10
1.67

Q2

50%

Order Q3

Q2
GPM
20 16.67%

GPM

A

Q3
GPM Q2
www.yoyoway.com
~ 307 ~

VI

Q3
100
83.33

16.67
10
6.67 0.67 eps 2.67
-
4
2.67

10 p/e 3.7

VI

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 308 ~
- A Negative signal

case

-
Positive Signal

A

..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 309 ~

VI

VI
post Thaivi

port style yoyo Blog
___________

. yoyo
Yoyo

portfolio
.
management port

port

... port

2 Stock Selection
Blog www.yoyoway.com " Port style
yoyo"
Replay

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 310 ~
2
A 10 16
B 10 16
2 Upside 60%
port 7
1. 2 % ... common sense

Upside
2.

A
12 B 8
60% B 40%
A

upside A upside 33% B 100%
B
Upside
A
B A ...
B

3.

A

30:70
www.yoyoway.com
~ 311 ~
4.

A 8 B
B port

12
70
84% ...
5.
Upside A 100 B
A

33% B

port 70:30
6. ... A

10
B 10 ....
B
7.
Upside A
50:50

...
port
2 port
40% 1
1.4
VI
Fund flow ...
A B

16

A ...
A B B
B ...
B A A
VI
...

VI
port

2 ... 4-5
Upside

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 312 ~

Year 2010
www.yoyoway.com
~ 313 ~
Friday, January 15, 2010

-----------
yoyo
Margin

?
1.yoyo

?

+

Margin

Margin
2.yoyo
%

2551

+
100% ( Margin
100%)

51
100% Margin
100% 2551

+

51

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 314 ~

49
49 100%

50

50
51
51
49 - 50

51

Stay invest 4951 51 49-50
....

200%
100%+

100 yoyo

+

Margin

100
50

1.
25%
+ port 25% port

50% equity

2.

10
+
www.yoyoway.com
~ 315 ~
10
5

3.

25%

+ 2 1

4.

.

25%
+

......

.

yoyo

17.4% TTA
12.5% SCNYL
8.9% STANLY
9.3% TRUE
8.5% TICON
7.4% BLA
4.6% SGP
5.3% ADVANC
4.1% CCET
4.1% CCET-w2
3.6% MAJOR
3.6% SPALI
2.7% SIRI
1.4% TCAP
1.4% PRO
2.0% PSL
1.8% RATCH
1.3% UMS-W1

19.4%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 316 ~

14.5%
14.8%
8.9%
19.9%
6.4%
8.3%
3.6% -
1.4% -
1.4% -
1.3% mai
+

1-2

1-2

20
..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 317 ~
Margin
yoyo

Internet trading

+

Margin

Indicator

.. Margin
(

5
) Margin

..
Margin

...

Margin

....

vi vi

port ...

Force sell ...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 318 ~
..
-
port

- Margin

..

10-15% ....
20 30 40%
- Margin

Margin

()

Margin

...
Margin 52

..
Margin ...

Margin
Margin
Margin
www.yoyoway.com
~ 319 ~
51 52
2551 set 48% port
55% ( set port
set )

port
New High
4-5
...
800

700 600

600 500 400
300 ... port

...
-

..

..

100%
p/e
10-20% ..
-
30%

mint

Margin

Broker
( )

(
)

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 320 ~

..

..

...
20-30%

-

- vi port
100% ...

Switch

..
port

(

555)

4-5 4-5

port
Margin
port

10-20

port

...

port

10-20

..

...

63% port

384%
2552 set
set
port 2551
52

-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 321 ~
52 51
15-20%

20%

15-20%
capital gain ...

-

lpn
lpn Backlog
52
51
lpn 0.80 0.40
2 port
2.2

- lpn

ps spali ap lh qh siri ... 4

51

Sign
..

ps port
ps

4
- Q2

4

Q4
50 Q1-51

lpn ps

2 4 5 8
- 2

spali ..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 322 ~
.
mcs spali
spali

gpm opm npm roe
5

qh lh
p/e 10
.. lpn ps ap p/e 6-8 spali

p/e
2

spali

spali
5 p/e
... switch
port
-
spali

100% (

)

1.5
1.5
6 (
3 ) Pre-sale

Q3 Q4 Demand
Supply

Supply

-

irp

Growth
53
Demand
( Pet resin )
Supply

irp

Theme 52

Supply Demand irp

... ( Peter Lynch) "
www.yoyoway.com
~ 323 ~
....
51 52
51
VI

VI

.....
7
80%
VI

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 324 ~

thaivi

Click

Blog
Blog
comment junk

( 555)

yoyo

.. :lol:

"
"

naris

10

burengnong
GC PM

GC oppday
idea gc

gc Professional
www.yoyoway.com
~ 325 ~
supplier
gc

Growth

concern

PM no idea

... post

thaivi.com

http://board.thaivi.org/viewtopic.php?p=467433#467433
Amadeus wrote:

(

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 326 ~

Yoyo

...

Amadeus

..

1. ...

2.
...

3. ...

demand

demand

4.
..

Key success factor

www.yoyoway.com
~ 327 ~

...

3

discount

..

-

- Backlog
-

- yield

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 328 ~
kewin wrote:

yoyo
property fund

prop fund

prop fund ..
..
Bigc Hmpro Cpall

position

100%
prop fund

prop fund

prop fund

prop fund

3

CPNRF SPF TFUND
3

cpnrf

Lease hold

spf discount

2

www.yoyoway.com
~ 329 ~
0.60
cpnrf
0.55
lease hold

Fix

tfund Free hold

tfund

9.55

...

3

...

...

----snc

model

dilute eps

model

p/e
. Hit&Run
BLS

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 330 ~
kewin wrote:
yoyo
prop fund

research
1. yoyo research

2. research

1. research

...

2.

Fact

----www.yoyoway.com
~ 331 ~
Quote:
prop fund
1.
nav mos
prop fund
trade nav
nav

1. nav mos

nav

nav
" prop fund trade

nav"

...

100%

Quote:
2. nav prop fund lease hold

Freehold Leasehold NAV

leasehold
nav

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 332 ~
freehold
Infinity

Quote:
3. t-fund t-fund

ticon dilute

t-fund

dilution

Dilute

Concern
Quote:
t-fund
4. ticon
33%
ticon
%

Quote:
5. propfund

%

100000

200

95% 1 200 *.95*12(
)= 228 15% 22834.5=193.8 90% 174.42
www.yoyoway.com
~ 333 ~
yoyo

cpnrf

0.90

5%

0.90 2-3% (
2-3 )
5%
---winkung
yoyo
entry
"
"

p/e
:D

MCS

""

concept
yoyo

1 = 0.49 x2 = 0.98

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 334 ~
= 3.98
p/e = 4.06 = 4.61

( )

upside "

"
---------------------------------

20%

1 = 1.176
p/e

= 3.38 ........... ?
--------------------------------
" "
p/e eps
eps
p/e

:cry: [/list]
yoyo
winkung

(

www.yoyoway.com
~ 335 ~
" = 4.61"

(
)

..

trailing p/e 4.61

p/e

p/e p/e

sense

p/e

56-1 annual

report
sense

Bigc Makro
Trade p/e 7-9

p/e

...

Trade p/e

p/e

Trade
10-25 ..

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 336 ~

Defensive Premium
Trade p/e

case

vi Mr.Market
-----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 337 ~
kewin wrote:

1.
blog

order

2. yoyo
Yoyo

3.

1. ?

oppday

portfolio
2.
management port

port

... port

2 Stock Selection
Blog www.yoyoway.com
" Port style yoyo"
Replay

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 338 ~
2
A 10 16
B 10 16
2 Upside 60%
port 7
1. 2 % ... common sense

Upside
2.

A
12 B 8
60% B 40%

A
upside A upside 33% B 100%
B Upside
A
B
www.yoyoway.com
~ 339 ~
A ...
B

3.

A

30:70
4.

A 8 B
B port

12
70
84% ...
5.
Upside A 100 B
A

33% B

port 70:30
6. ... A

10
B 10 ....
B
7.
Upside A
50:50

...
port
2 port
40% 1
1.4
VI
Fund flow ...
A B

16

A ...
A B B
B ...
B A A
VI
...

VI
port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 340 ~

2 ... 4-5
Upside

3.
... port

...

. Upside upide .. S

----uncleBE wrote:

7

-
Upside

-

Upside

-

+
Upside

Marketing
-----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 341 ~
McDull wrote:

yoyo
0-100
yoyo
"

"

port
Bias

port
Upside

Upside

% port

-
-
-

-
p/e

p/e

p/e

p/e

Upside

-----
YOYO'S WAYS ~ 342 ~
kewin wrote:
yoyo mcs

mcs

Trade

mcs

Growth

Cap
gain
45000
NPM 11%

------
www.yoyoway.com
~ 343 ~
SVI SMT
YOYO

ok
delta hana

SVI(pe=4.8) PE pbv
1.
delta
(pe=9.6) ,hana (pe=9.8)
ROE SIV delta
2.

(roe=17) SVI
(roe svi
16-->23 delta 20 16 )

HANA (roe 24%)
DELTA
svi
q0q 140 %
14%
3.

hana delta
upside
2.8

SVI
2.08
CCET D/E 2

4.
SVI 0.19
SMT
5.
boi

ROE 20
2.84
4
PE 9.8

29%

5
upside
DELTA HANA CCET

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 344 ~

upside

upside
upside

ubside

ubside 10
5-->3

5-->1
yoyo
TRC PDI UEC TTA RCL PSL

turn arround
2
PE

PE

TRC

trun arround
TTA RCK PSL
PE

PE

yoyo
young_5432
elec
comment

comment

www.yoyoway.com
~ 345 ~
1. p/bv

- p/e roe

- p/bv
...

3
roe = / = (/ ) / ( /
) = eps / bv
p/e * eps/bv = p/bv
p/e * roe = p/bv
- p/e

p/e

- roe ratio

- p/bv

p/e p/bv

2 ratio

roe p/bv
roe p/bv
p/bv roe 2
ratio

1 ratio
roe p/bv 2
roe p/bv

VI
..

. .
ratio

p/bv

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 346 ~

... ratio

roe
...

see's candy
Shift p/bv roe
roe
2. roe
2 roe
abnormal roe

roe

roe
abnormal
roe
roe

3. ...

svi
2.8
2.08 upside upside

4.
p/e roe
d/e

d/e

d/e
.. 3
www.yoyoway.com
~ 347 ~

5.

p/e

comment
...
Fact
upside

..
...

Bias

upside

---kewin wrote:
irp pet resins
commodity

knowhow
2. supply petresin irp

supply
irp
PET commodity

Supply Demand

IRP

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 348 ~

1-3 supply
IRP Supply

IRP

---green-orange wrote:
YOYO YOYO

1.
2.

3.

( port

:
port )

- 3
- 2
..

... uec ums 40

3 upside

-

3

..

----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 349 ~
young_5432 wrote:

PDI

-

credit

us
-

pdi

-----DevilCupid wrote:
)
YOYO (

pe

p/e
+
...

p/e p/e

...

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 350 ~

p/e

pocketbook

case study
p/e
dynamic
..

p/e 8

p/e 4-5
p/e 8

p/e

p/e

sense

....

dcf

dcf
p/e

dcf

p/e
. () p/e
Mr.Market p/e
p/e

p/e
p/e
-----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 351 ~
green-orange wrote:

yoyo

(

)

yoyo

yoyo
...

1-2

Margin

port

port

VI)
(1-2

12 .. 1-2

1-2
..
Margin
port

force ( VI
)

..

Margin

port
:lol:

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 352 ~

Force

port
1520%

15-20%

Peter Lynch

"
"

IRP

port

....

..

ROE
20%
..

...

..

--------
www.yoyoway.com
~ 353 ~
winkung wrote:
yoyo wrote:

.........

" "

(

vi )
20
"

...

"

600

..

----
YOYO'S WAYS ~ 354 ~
Outliers wrote:
YOYO BLAND PRIN
Asset Play Growth
2
Asset Play
..
Asset Play

Asset

Asset Play
Charan Spsu brock 10% 2
(
1
% ..)

2 3
asset

Growth

port

Growth Asset
Growth
Prin
Growth ..
Prin Growth

Growth

Prin

Professional

----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 355 ~
jessi wrote:

Margin

vi

port

vol

Margin

Panic
Margin
Margin
VI

Margin Port

Margin
-----

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 356 ~
lumpue wrote:
yoyo

Yoyo
SIRI

S
IRI warrant
Warrant
Y
oyo
.

w

siri
w

eps

....
w ?

-----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 357 ~
jessi wrote:

..

-

-

-
30-50%

- (

0.3-0.4%

)
-
mail IR

-

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 358 ~
..

10%

1020%

Panic sell
www.yoyoway.com
~ 359 ~
picklife wrote:
----Conceptyoyo
1.PE

2.E
3.PE PE
----1.2 ?

PE

?
....

????

p/e

DCF

IH
thaivi

DCF

-
dcf

dcf
-
- dcf
-
dcf
inventory dcf
-

-
dcf
- dcf
-
dcf

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 360 ~
p/e
dcf
p/e
p/e

-
p/e

p/e
-
- p/e
-
p/e
inventory p/e
-

-
p/e
- p/e
-
p/e
DCF

....
DCF

DCF
p/e

p/e

Sense p/e
...

picklife

Margin of

Safety ...
dcf
www.yoyoway.com
~ 361 ~

p/e
Margin of Safety

p/e

p/e

----picklife wrote:

yoyo

PE

PE

....

( )

.....

yoyo

?
...
Mr.Market
2
..

2
-
1.

2. -

Business Model

. Mr.Market

Port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 362 ~
Focus

Mr.Market

Smooth

----

....

....

yoyo ......
PE
1.

2.
3.

4.
inventory
5.
6. /

7.

8.

yoyo ...

.....

5 !!! ....
.....

7.....................50%
............20%
2.
............................5%
8.
6. ...................5%
www.yoyoway.com
~ 363 ~
...................5%
5.
.......................5%
1.
3.........5%
....5%
4.
yoyo
yoyo
yoyo

p/e

Weight

Sense

% ....

DCF

DCF

p/e
DCF ...

p/e
----

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 364 ~
picklife wrote:
:D yoyo

1.
DCF ...
2.yoyo GrowthStock ValueStock
?yoyo /
...
B2S
1. ..

2. Growth Value
...
Growth

Value
... Value
Growth Value Growth
-----green-orange wrote:
yoyo

-
-
- Sale Season
-
www.yoyoway.com
~ 365 ~

- Product mix ...

LH
LPN ...

Trend

2
ap spali ps
product

2 product
- Backlog

1-3

- Pre-sale
- Margin

NPM

2.25-3% (3%

2.25%

1 Q1 )

NPM
... A NPM 52

10% 53
NPM 10% 7%
30% B NPM 52 25% 53
NPM 22% 12%
NPM 10 20 ( siri npm

) npm

8-15%
.....

Demand

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 366 ~
Supply
Demand
Supply

Share
Growth
------picklife wrote:
"yoyo wrote:
- Margin

NPM

2.25-3%
2.25%
(3%

1 Q1
)
NPM
...
A NPM 52
10% 53
NPM 10% 7%
30%

B NPM 52 25% 53 NPM 22%
12%"
:
? 3% ?

A 10%*0.97=9.7%
B 25%*0.97=24.25%
.....
www.yoyoway.com
~ 367 ~
2 npm npm ...

- npm 2 2.94%

3%
- 25.2 22.26 11.67%
-
11.2 8.26 26.25%
:D
-----teelek wrote:

Sat Ah
IVL

sat ah

sat
ah deliver

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 368 ~

ivl 3

key

vi

..
+

-----Tlk wrote:
YOYO

port

3 cpnrf tfund spf
1-2%
7-10%

com

0.1%

3

www.yoyoway.com
~ 369 ~
3 1-2
----neo_potato_Th wrote:

presale backlog
revenue

presale
backlog
?
revenue backlog
+

presale

Pre-sale Backlog
..

3

2

1. -
1 .. 52- 31 .. 52

31
2. -
.. 52
Pre-sale Backlog
53 ..
1. Pre-sale
Pre-sale 5000
Backlog
.. 53
2. Backlog
21500

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 370 ~

Q4-52 Backlog 16500

1 .. 53 28 . 53 Pre-sale
5000
28 .. 53 Backlog =
16500+5000 = 21500
. Pre-sale

.

1000
(Revenue) 3500
Pre-sale 5000+1000 = 6000

. Backlog
16500+5000+1000

3500= 19000

:lol:
-----
www.yoyoway.com
~ 371 ~

wrote:
Presale Sale
Backlog ?
..
post

3 (

)
1. -

Rejection rate

Vary PS Rejection
rate

10-20%

1
LPN

10% Spali

3-5%

Rejection rate
..
Rejection rate

2. -

3. -
siri unit

Pre-sale Backlog
------

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 372 ~

3
(
presale sale)
?
1.

concern

2.

Sign

(
)

Speculator Friendly

3.

case

www.yoyoway.com
~ 373 ~
Tlk wrote:
YoYo :
Port

Bloc
YoYo

YoYo %

(Trigger point)
YoYo

YoYo

YoYo
.52

- Upside % port?

upside

%

upside

case
upside

potential

p/e

% upside ...

5%
-

1%

?

+ 5-10%

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 374 ~

Target group
Product Location
... (
Bias port)
-

Detail

-----ChennyVI wrote:

scope

Settrade
company highlight ROE ROE
15% ROE

roe > 15-20%

www.yoyoway.com
~ 375 ~

Turn Around
settrade

:lol:

------Quote:

baglock presale
action

( vi action )

Action

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 376 ~
Quote:

vi idol

(
)

margin
growth

..

..

Quote:
^^
set smart

Key Excel
www.yoyoway.com
~ 377 ~
moonchild wrote:

IVL
IVL
IRP

555 . ..

:lol:

13.5
1.5
pe 9 ... ...
...

:lol:
-----pwz wrote:
pe9

pe
Great
8
Great
ivl
p/e 7-8

pe
p/e

12

12
. Great pe
pe 15-20 ...

7-8
Good pe 4-5
------
YOYO'S WAYS ~ 378 ~
pakaon wrote:

IVL

IRP

1

+

2
IRP

order

(
)

irp ivl

1.
+
case irp

-
+

(

) Generate

+

2. irp

Margin of Safety
www.yoyoway.com
~ 379 ~
order lock
70% ... lock

order

supply
pet

irp

...

. ivl lot 14 18
.. :lol:
---------VI
wrote:

GPM

Tax rate
...
..

- ... " GPM

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 380 ~

- cost Fix cost

... " %
- Tax rate
Tax Benefit

...

. ...
pm
---------0N0111 wrote:

bol

1

..

bol

bol 2 Barrier to Entry ..

Key (
visit Claim

- )..

www.yoyoway.com
~ 381 ~
Quote:

Barrier
...
-
-

-

BOL Barrier

GPM
Barrier

Margin

GPM

-------

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 382 ~
j21 wrote:

(

)
upside

10%

30%

...
...

Upside
1 Upside 30%

Upside 30%

30% 1
30% Annualize 1
60% (

)

------www.yoyoway.com
~ 383 ~
j2methai wrote:
"
"
.

oppday

56-1
(
)

Pocket Book

A Book
- oppday

Oppday live

-

VI
-

TVI
- 5-8 .
port
-

Upside

1 port

1

10% port

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 384 ~
1 port
-

port
?
-
-
VI

3-4

port
port

-
www.yoyoway.com
~ 385 ~
j21 wrote:

7 MOS 30%
5
Upside 30% Upside

MOS Upside

MOS

MOS & Upside

MOS Upside
..

. ..

Upside

= (-)/
MOS

VI
= (-)/
A
10
13
Upside 30%
MOS 23% ...

Upside 30%
...
MOS 30%

MOS 30%
Upside
50%
------

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 386 ~
verapongzz wrote:
y
oyo
DEMCO

Detail

Margin Fix
Too Good to be True

Demco

eps

w

demco

Nature
pe

Discount
---------
www.yoyoway.com
~ 387 ~
neo_potato_Th wrote:

cut loss
crisis -.-?

cut loss ...
cut loss

crisis

replay ...
crisis
" vi

"

-------picklife wrote:

spali
200838% 2009
2008
30%

2009
30%

?
spali

Oppday spali 1-2

(
)

spali
2007-2008 spali

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 388 ~
( %
)
...

2008

Tax rate
38%
2008

Tax rate

30% Tax rate 30%

--------spyhac wrote:
tr

pe 4

tr

( 555)

Demand

Supply
GPM

Stock
(
)
tr GPM
...

Demand

(2
)
_______________
www.yoyoway.com
~ 389 ~
PaZZaHut wrote:
"KCE"

..
kce 5

..

-

( )
-
-

-

Grade KCE pe 5-6

--------firstee wrote:
TNH
pe

roe 4-5

25-30%

tnh

..
Operate

2

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 390 ~

roe

10

roe
tnh

pe 10-12
----------Quote:
IR

IR

- ..

-

-
-

www.yoyoway.com
~ 391 ~
- ...

IR

IR IR

IR
..

-----------

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 392 ~
Monday, February 22, 2010

4

1. Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett Wealth) :
Robert P.Miles
Buffett
CEO Warren Buffett

2. The little book that beats the market : Joel
Greenblatt
100

p/e ratio
ROA

VI

top 5
3. Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial

Statement : Mary Buffet & David Clark

4. The Dhandho Investor Mohnish

-
Pabrai WEB
Buffett
VI

www.yoyoway.com
~ 393 ~
5. Warren Buffett -

edition Version

Version

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 394 ~
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Blog
1

Idea

idea

Blog SeekingAlpha

( 1
2025% )

Case study
idea
yoyoway

link
http://seekingalpha.com/user/566955/instablog
www.yoyoway.com
~ 395 ~
Sign in Follower
Follow email
Update

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 396 ~
Sunday, October 24, 2010
comment

27
2010

( )
8

Value Investing

100%
( 100% Margin)

www.yoyoway.com
~ 397 ~
80-90%

PSL

Cycle

PSL
Cycle

PSL

PSL

PSL

Fix
25%

25%
Fix
100%

PSL

PSL

Fix

(

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 398 ~
PSL

Fix

PSL

PSL

PSL

PSL

PSL

IRP IVL (
)

Focus

Focus

IRP IVL

IRP IVL

www.yoyoway.com
~ 399 ~

Value Investor

PSL

Value Investor

Warren Buffett

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 400 ~
THANK YOU
www.yoyoway.com

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~ 1 ~

yoyo's investing way

yoyo's investing way

: Investor Station 137-145 1-11

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Monday, June 05, 2006

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Friday, June 09, 2006

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Friday, June 16, 2006

Sunday, June 18, 2006

10.8 upside 68.8% ...

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

(Efficient Market Theory

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

cpf tmb cpf par

fat boy 6/12/45

Value Investor Chairsholder

UFM S&P MAI

fat boy 10/12/45

Golded Stock 10/12/45

Friday, June 23, 2006

The Warren Buffett Way 1st edition Robert G.

The Warren Buffett Way 2st edition Robert G.

The Essential Buffett Robert G.

How Buffett dose it James

. the warren buffet way the new buffettology 2

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Saturday, July 01, 2006

15% 60 port 121

Monday, July 03, 2006

Download file 56-1 .

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 100 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 102 ~

Sunday, July 09, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 104 ~

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Sunday, July 16, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 106 ~

Friday, July 21, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 108 ~

Saturday, July 29, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 110 ~

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 112 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 114 ~

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 116 ~

Monday, August 14, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 118 ~

Saturday, August 19, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 120 ~

Monday, August 28, 2006

MINT p/e 10-15

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 122 ~

Thursday, August 31, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 124 ~

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 126 ~

YOYO'S WAYS ~ 128 ~