KZM Meeting

24 August 2013
KZM Concept Sharing
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- asset cash flow commodity forex
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- Base
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- create cash flow
- (golden bullet)
-
- n/a
- n/a
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- cash flow BI
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- Cash Flow
DZM
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-
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- TDEX DZM KZM DZM
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- DZM KZM KZM cash flow DZM

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- KZM Option
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-
-
- C
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-
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- KZM 52-53 10-20% futures KZM
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- 1 4

-
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-
-
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- prop trade

-
- zone trading direction DZA
Macro
10 20%
- technical
Asset
- - n/a
-
- asset MM cash flow
- Unknown
- MM - stock
-

KZM
-
- KZM MM MM
MM
- KZM trade Moral
- KZM MM

Virus
- Virus
Defensive 70% Invest 30% Virus
- fix
-
- Trader
- Trader Mudley Group Global Macro
Soros Mental MM
- *Virus

Introduction

- Portfolio Manager Mudley

Visio Management
- Trader Trader
Trader OK
- Riccio Investment Limited Hedge Fund Tool Alpha
- Trader Skill Trader Condition skill
drop

- Amway Trader Trader Trader

10
- Down Line Trading

- Amway

True Alpha
- Ray Dalio, Bridge Water Associate
- Profit = cash + beta + alpha
- 100

- Beta cash flow

- Alpha Skill Trader
- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to
adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
George Bernard Shaw
- Cap - Cash Day to Day
- Cash Inflation, Interest, Cost of Capital
- Beta Steady Cash, Flow Day to Day operation, Short run
- Alpha Long Tern investment(R&D), Long Tern profit, Long run
- BETA has similarity as KZM model. But there are more components to BETA or Market Return.
Metal
Time
-

Objective: Hobby? Profession? Education?

?
Full Time, Part Time, Long Time, Day Trade

return

Money
- Too few, too much leverage
- Broker is not there to help you, they are there for business.
- 100 1 . inflation

-
- 1 2 SET50
1000 TFEX
- Trader
- Risk Averse 50%
70 80 %
3

- If Hobby Las Vegas would be more entertaining

- If Education Imagine paying for the semester how much does an average MBA cost?

- If Profession Think of it as sunk cost, startup fees.

4 Attitudes
- Always right, Cant be wrong, hate mistake
- Short
- Mudley Cash Flow
Risk Control

-
Risk Management
Inefficient risk control
- Dollar cost averaging
- F 4.00

- Efficient Market Theory
-
- Hedge Fund
Hedge Fund
- Systematic Investing
- Position
- Hope

What can you control?

- Position selection.
- Amount of capital to risk.
Not all losses are created equal
- A trade that moves against you and is exited at predetermined loss after being prosperity
selected with a high probability setup and with the appropriate strategy is an acceptable loss.
Letting a trade move against you when no predefined loss limit is not an acceptable loss.
Trading as a basket
- Portfolio diversification (beta) depends on money and if blindly followed its a wasted of
resource.
Reward Risk and Position Size
- Reward should be balanced with time and cap locked up.
Market Direction
Everything in this world is quoted in USD for now
Laundry Example, Market Entry
-

- Global Macro USD

Sector
Zoom
Fry fish Example, Letting profit run
-
- tp
Demand and Supply see saw
- Demand is the buying power.
- Supply is the selling power
Pure Energy
- Market, Sector and Stock build energy and expend energy. They will go a little way up (or
down) get tired, meander, explore, take a break, and then continue their journey.
-
View from the high
- In order to be successful, you need to trade the market thats in front of you, not the market you
want to see.
Quote
Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

 ()

Adapting the Market to yourself

1. KZM
2. Virtual Position
Same Result
- Buy = Buy = Not Sell Inventory in hand
- Sell = Sell = Not Buy Cash in hand
Virtual Position ( C D)
-
- Beta trader generate Cash Flow
100 100
Excel
- Position ()
- Close Long Open Short Open Long
Close Short
- Virtue Position Close Long
Open Short P/L
- Short
- Trader Virtual
- Virtual Position
-
- Trader Close Short Open Long

- Sell Signal Buy Signal Sell Buy

- Short Gold Mudley Long Gold

Question: Personality Type

- Strength Weakness
Q&A
Bias
- Bias Long Bias Long
Short
- Bias
Concept
- Alpha
Trader
- Order Trade Record
- % 2 5 40%
- 20-30$ 2
5$ Short 1300
1250 50

- 1UP
1

- Long 2000
Long
Long Bias
Cut-Loss Beta
- Long System System
System
System
SMA 20/50 (20 1 , 50 1 )
- care Cash Flow Cut Loss
1 1 Cut Loss
20/50
Randomness
- Focus
- time frame Randomness

 Trader
-

- KZM cut loss Cash Flow
Cut Loss Cut Loss

- Trader Cut Loss Ego Cut Loss

- Cut Loss Cut Loss Cash

Flow
Cash Flow Cash Flow
- Cash Flow TMB 300,000
100
Cut Loss
- Cut Loss
SAMSUNG APPLE Cut Loss
Pricing
Diary Trade
- Diary Trade 2
1.

2. A4
Short
Beta Alpha
-
Train
- LV 1
- Firm ()
- Trader improve Diary

- Weight Vol. 10 Option US Group Head (Mentor) Day Trade in US market

Mental System
- System Back Test Buy/Sell Signal
- Technical 30 pre-signal Buy
Signal 3 1 100,000 10,000
trend Sizing 20,000
Fund Technical Size Trend

 50,000 Pay-Off
Sizing
- Ego
Ego
Afternoon Session
Portfolio Rebalancing
- Trader Structure
- Ray Dalio Portfolio Rebalancing
- Portfolio Rebalancing Cash Flow NAV
-

EUR

- 1.
10 10,000

TMB 1 2.35 X 100 = 235

TMB 2 2.50 X 100 = 250
242.50
NAV Port Product
- 2.
1,300 1,310 10$
- Concept Rebalancing
- Rebalancing

- 4-5
Profit = Cash + Beta + Alpha
- Fund
BETA

Cash
60%

40%

BANPU

10% Alpha
1,000,000

BANPU 300 300

- True Alpha

- BANPU 280 (300 280) * 300 = 6,000

- Beta Port Beta
Beta 6,000 Alpha
- Beta Cash
-
300

300
280

20
260

25
260 X (300 + 20 + 25) = 89,700
- Futures Futures BANPU Cash
Cash
- Futures Futures
- BANPU 300 Supply
Beta

- Alpha

 True Alpha

Cash
60%

40%

SIRI

100,000 Alpha 10% SIRI 1. 2 5,000

2. 1.90
300
3. 1.95 300
4. 1.90
300 ()
5.Port
Case

Cash
60%

40%

Futures
Portfolio

BANPU
100,000 50,000

- BANPU loss 50,000 Futures

generate Beta 50,000

- Downsize Risk
Note
- Fund Returns Alpha Port Beta
- KZM Beta
- Long Short Hedge Fund

 Exposure Alpha
- Buffet Alpha 25%, Dalio 40 50 %
- Buffet Short PUT
- 1,000 970

Cash
60%

40%
12%
10%
2-3%

Buffet Short put

- Beta generate
- 1 Alpha
- port Alpha
True Alpha

- discount / premium long

upside
- discount

capacity

- BV
- Commodity Commodity
-
True Alpha
- US
1,000
30
1,000
29
1,000
28
- 28 29 1,000 true alpha
-
True Alpha
- SIRI 10,000

2.00
SIRI 10,000
2.20

2,000
- 2,000 Alpha/Beta
- 2,000 trading department

Note
-

Balance; Return = Cash + Beta + Alpha

Beta Crash
Alpha
True Alpha
Alpha

worse case
- 10 15 %
- Bride Water Growth
Generate Cash Flow
Alpha Futures
- Alpha Advance
- generate 20,000 600,000 Alpha
- 9,000,000 , Futures 100,000

Cash
8M

Beta
6

Alpha
1

- Roll-Over
Roll-Over

forex

Global Macro
- generate Cash Flow Cash
Flow Long Cash Flow Short

- Web Board


- 1,000,000 Option, 1 1 200

Beta

Cash
Alpha

TDEX 900 Short Put 180,000

850

170,000
Option (20X200)
4,000
800 CF Option 4,000
Alpha

Position
- PE PE 20 Position PE

- . Market Cap. 9 EPS drop

BV
- BV BV
- BV crash Soros short

- BANPU 230 BV
true alpha 25

-
1.2X EUR
Hedge Fund EUR USDXUD (
USD)
- QE

Macro

- Soros Macro THB

USD AUS
USD THB THB
lag switch AUS
- AUS JPY ( Hedge Fund JPY)
JPY
Non-Farm Jobless Claim
PMI
AUS

Commodity
- AUS Commodity AUS
- HK Trading Industry HK
- Commodity
- Sugar
- panic 3%
Trade
- model maximize benefit
-
1%

- Contrarian

- 3

- ration %
- Model pay-off pay-off
Model Model
- Repeated Game
position size
MM
- Model Model Perfect
Snowball Model Short SP500 SP500 Short
model
(Model ) Mental