HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

25 August, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
67.063
94.539
1.131
1.32
100.24
67.159

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.101
94.762
1.127
1.323
100.490
67.141

Chg.

% Chg.

0.039
0.223
-0.004
0.002
0.250
-0.018

0.06%
0.24%
-0.37%
0.19%
0.25%
-0.03%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8727.5
8650.3
28059.9
22843.1
16555.1
3061.7
2175.4
18481.5
5217.7
6835.8
4435.5
10623.0

8702.5
8632.6
27990.2
22820.8
16597.3
3085.9
2186.9
18547.3
5260.1
6868.5
4421.5
10592.9

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

25
18
70
22
-42
-24
-11
-66
-42
-33
14
30

0.29%
0.21%
0.25%
0.10%
-0.25%
-0.78%
-0.52%
-0.35%
-0.81%
-0.48%
0.32%
0.28%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

24-Aug-16

23-Aug-16

Equity

6.25

-113.12

Debt

691.29

-1213.83

RUPEE CONSOLIDATING IN TIGHT RANGE

The weakness in the rupee was mirrored by all emerging market
currencies, with most of them falling in the range of 0.15-0.85% on
Wednesday from their previous close. Rupee closed at 67.10 per
dollar, down 0.06% from its previous close of 67.06. The rupee
opened at 67.15 per dollar and touched a high and a low of 67.09
and 67.16, respectively. This was the fourth out of five trading
sessions that the rupee closed lower.
The 10-year bond yield closed at 7.135%, compared with its
Tuesdays close of 7.159%. Between 10 August and 23 August,
foreign institutional investors have sold $422.08 million in debt
markets. Bond yield closed lower ahead of the Reserve Bank of
Indias (RBIs) measures on financial markets to be announced on
Thursday.
USDINR August future is consolidating between 66.80 to 67.50
range. Technically, the pair is in the lower top lower bottom
formation.
Dollar Steady After Weaker Existing Home Sales Data
Existing home sales in the U.S. tumbled by much more than
anticipated in the month of July. NAR said existing home sales
slumped 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.39 million in July from
5.57 million in June. With the steep monthly decline, existing home
sales are down by 1.6 percent compared to the same month a year
ago, reflecting the first year-over-year drop since November of
2015.
Futures markets on Wednesday were indicating an 18 percent
chance the U.S. central bank would hike rates at its policy meeting
next month, and roughly 50 percent odds of a rate increase in
December, according to CME Group's Fed-Watch tool.
Durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims are scheduled for
Thursday, while GDP, international trade and consumer sentiment
are slated for Friday.

Forex market likely to remain steady today ahead of the world

central bank meet at Jackson Hole.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR AUGUST FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The pair is consolidating between 50 and 200 SDMA.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms intact on daily chart.

Momentum Oscillators are consolidating near beak even level.

Recent bottom of 66.72 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.49.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.16

67.17

67.03

67.08

67.12

67.20

67.25

67.29

EURINR

75.70

75.77

75.38

75.53

75.61

75.85

76.01

76.09

GBPINR

88.91

88.76

87.94

88.16

88.54

89.13

89.35

89.73

JPYINR

66.99

66.95

66.60

66.71

66.85

67.10

67.20

67.34

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.06

66.74

67.43

66.67

68.79

64.70

67.04

66.92

67.17

66.96

66.98

EURINR

75.98

74.78

76.15

73.63

77.49

70.24

75.87

74.81

74.91

75.21

74.22

GBPINR

88.09

86.16

90.20

86.16

104.26

86.16

88.23

87.70

89.57

93.02

95.26

JPYINR

67.00

65.96

67.08

62.64

68.11

53.32

66.84

65.97

65.29

63.39

60.38

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg. in OI

Volume

Chg. In
Volume

SPOT USDINR

67.15

67.16

67.09

67.10

0.04

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

67.20

67.22

67.13

67.16

0.04

1205409

-65144

662827

-146910

SPOT EURINR

75.87

75.90

75.66

75.68

-0.37

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

75.93

75.93

75.69

75.70

-0.37

43915

-8324

44118

10143

SPOT GBPINR

88.52

88.92

88.38

88.83

0.40

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

88.38

88.98

88.38

88.91

0.35

33894

-956

66089

-2903

SPOT JPYINR

66.80

67.05

66.78

66.98

0.04

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

66.93

67.06

66.81

66.99

0.01

50623

-4250

36178

-7971

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

08/24/2016 10:30

JN

Leading Index CI

08/24/2016 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

08/24/2016 18:30

US

08/24/2016 19:30

US

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

Jun F

--

99.2

98.4

19-Aug

--

-2.10

-4.00%

House Price Purchase Index QoQ

2Q

--

1.20%

1.50%

Existing Home Sales

Jul

5.50m

5.39m

5.57m

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

Country

Event

08/25/2016 18:00

US

Durable Goods Orders

08/25/2016 18:00

US

08/25/2016 18:00

Period

Survey

Prior

Jul P

3.40%

-3.90%

Initial Jobless Claims

20-Aug

265k

262k

US

Continuing Claims

13-Aug

2155k

2175k

08/25/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Services PMI

Aug P

51.8

51.4

08/25/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Composite PMI

Aug P

--

51.8

08/25/2016 19:15

US

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

21-Aug

--

43.6

08/25/2016 20:30

US

Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity

Aug

-2

-6

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]