HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

12 August, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
66.715
95.65
1.118
1.301
101.29
66.948

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.844
95.907
1.114
1.298
101.970
66.867

Chg.

% Chg.

0.129
0.257
-0.004
-0.003
0.680
-0.081

0.19%
0.27%
-0.34%
-0.26%
0.67%
-0.12%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8633.0
8592.2
27859.6
22765.0
16856.3
3017.3
2185.8
18613.5
5228.4
6914.7
4504.0
10742.8

8617.0
8575.3
27774.9
22580.6
16735.1
3002.6
2175.5
18495.7
5204.6
6866.4
4452.0
10650.9

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

16
17
85
184
121
15
10
118
24
48
52
92

0.19%
0.20%
0.31%
0.82%
0.72%
0.49%
0.47%
0.64%
0.46%
0.70%
1.17%
0.86%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

11-Aug-16

10-Aug-16

Equity

500.78

321.29

Debt

-2078.03

1393.34

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee Fell Ahead Of Inflation and Industrial Production Data

Indian rupee on Thursday weakened against the US dollar from its
previous close ahead of inflation and industrial production data. The
domestic currency closed at 66.84 a dollar, down 0.17% from its
previous close of 66.72. The rupee opened at 66.84 a dollar and
touched a high and a low of 66.82 and 66.91, respectively.
Yield on benchmark 10-yr bond fell 2 bps to 7.08% fuelled by RBIs
move to front-load liquidity.
RBI bought net $1.92 billion of foreign currency in June ahead of
outflows relating to non-resident deposit repayments beginning
Sept.
The government will be getting a bonanza from the Reserve Bank of
India this year too. The RBI board has approved the transfer of
surplus amounting to Rs 65,876 crore for the year 2015-16 to the
government, just Rs 20 crore less than last year. The RBI had paid
Rs 65,896 crore to the government for the previous year (2014-15)
which came as a boon to the government in covering the deficit.
The government will issue Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based
inflation data for July and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data
for June on 12 August. According to a poll of Bloomberg analysts,
CPI will be at 5.9% in July against 5.77% in June, while IIP will be at
1.6% in June against 1.2% in May.
Technically, the USDINR August future is having support around
66.72 and 66.60 and resistance at 67.48.

US Dollar Climbs Amid Stronger Jobless Data

The U.S. dollar roses against most major currencies on Thursday as
economic data from the country came out positive. In the week
ending Aug. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial
jobless claims was 266,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous
week's revised level, the U.S. Labor Department announced
Thursday. The dollar held firm on Friday, supported by comments
from a Federal Reserve speaker that suggested a U.S. interest rate
increase this year is still a real possibility as inflation pressures
grow. The dollar's index against a basket of six major
currencies rose to 95.906 from this week's low of 95.442 touched on
Wednesday, although it looks likely to end the week lower, having
lost 0.3% so far.

 Currencies of commodity-exporting nations such as Norway and Canada have been the out-performers this week as oil heads for the
biggest weekly gain since April amid speculation the Federal Reserve will be slow to raise interest rates. The krone rose 0.1% to
8.2401 per dollar as of from Thursday, taking its weekly advance to 3.2%. The loonie added 0.1% to C$1.2986 versus its U.S. peer,
climbing 1.4% since Aug. 5.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR AUGUST FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

Primary trend of the pair is bearish.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Intact on daily chart.

Pair has been hovering around 200 SDMA, placed at 67.05

Momentum Oscillators are weakening on daily time scale.

Recent bottom of 66.72 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.49.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

66.98

67.00

66.83

66.89

66.94

67.05

67.11

67.16

EURINR

74.70

74.77

74.29

74.48

74.59

74.89

75.07

75.18

GBPINR

87.02

87.04

86.28

86.54

86.78

87.28

87.54

87.78

JPYINR

66.09

66.10

65.81

65.91

66.00

66.19

66.29

66.38

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.01

66.70

67.51

66.67

68.79

64.64

66.80

67.00

67.16

66.95

66.90

EURINR

75.10

74.31

75.38

73.63

77.49

70.24

74.35

74.30

74.91

75.16

74.15

GBPINR

89.54

87.63

90.20

86.35

105.28

86.35

87.19

88.15

91.15

93.65

95.84

JPYINR

66.34

64.99

67.30

62.64

68.11

51.95

65.72

64.61

64.59

62.73

59.81

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Vol.

Vol. Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.84

66.91

66.82

66.84

0.13

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

66.99

67.07

66.96

66.98

0.11

1898367

-10567

605209

-448763

SPOT EURINR

74.62

74.76

74.45

74.52

-0.07

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

74.88

74.96

74.66

74.70

-0.14

44318

-3866

38216

-9136

SPOT GBPINR

86.95

87.06

86.54

86.77

-0.49

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

87.26

87.30

86.80

87.02

-0.51

60356

11321

80868

18307

SPOT JPYINR

65.93

66.08

65.83

65.90

0.02

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

66.12

66.20

66.01

66.09

0.01

53035

2757

32107

-12542

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

08/11/2016
08/11/2016
08/11/2016
08/12/2016

18:00
18:00
18:00
07:30

Country

US
US
US
CH

Event

Import Price Index MoM

Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Industrial Production YoY

Period

Jul
6-Aug
30-Jul
Jul

Survey

Actual

-0.40%
265k
2133k
6.20%

0.10%
266k
2155k
6.00%

Prior

0.60%
267k
2141k
6.20%

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016
08/12/2016

14:00
14:30
14:30
17:30
17:30
18:00
18:00
19:30
19:30

Country

UK
EC
EC
IN
IN
US
US
US
US

Event

Construction Output SA YoY

GDP SA QoQ
GDP SA YoY
CPI YoY
Industrial Production YoY
Retail Sales Advance MoM
PPI Final Demand MoM
Business Inventories
U. of Mich. Sentiment

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Jun
2Q P
2Q P
Jul
Jun
Jul
Jul
Jun
Aug P

Survey

-2.10%
0.30%
1.60%
5.90%
1.60%
0.40%
0.10%
0.10%
91.5

Prior

-1.90%
0.30%
1.60%
5.77%
1.20%
0.60%
0.50%
0.20%
90.0

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]