Distribution Reliability

Oleh :
Dr. Eng. Rony Seto Wibowo

Laboratorium Simulasi Sistem Tenaga Listrik

Teknik Elektro ITS Surabaya

Motivation of Reliability Analysis

Analyze and improve system performance

Enhance customer satisfaction

Basis for new or expanded system planning

Satisfy regulatory requirements

Determine performance based rate making

Maintenance scheduling

Introduction to Distribution
Systems
Typical Distribution Systems:
Radial
< 100 MVA
< 69 kV class
Distributed load
20-30% Unbalance
Both 1 & 3 phase

Introduction to Distribution
Systems
Sec t i on
W CA45
Dist ributi on L i ne

Fee der 1808

N. O. Swit c h
N. C. Swit c h
Rec l ose r

(t o T hre e
L ake s)

Sec t i onal i z er
Fuse
Fee der Bounda ry

Fee der 1811

Fee der 1810

(t o Sul t an)

(t o Sul t an)
W oods Cre ek
Subst at i on

Fee der 1810

Fee der 1809

Background
Typical Distribution Systems
Supply Transformers are
housed in

Transformer Capacity: 2025 MVA

Distribution Substations
A Planning Scenario includes:
Each substation supplies:
4 to 14 Feeders

Each feeder has an average of:

About 10 Substations
That is, about 100
Feeders
System under study has:

300 line segments

> 20,000 line segments

60 protection and isolation

devices

> 5,000 devices

When the lights go out

Complex system
Many things can and do go wrong:
Voltage drops and spikes
Load imbalance
Outages

Reasons for outages:

Trees
Squirrels
Lightning
Wind
etc.

Independent of weather conditions

Strongly dependent on weather conditions

Strategies
Strategies
Operation

Reconfiguration for loss reduction

Capacitor switching
Post-fault switching

Planning & Design

New systems
Expansion of existing system
Upgrading of existing facilities

Maintenance (Tree-trimming, Inspection)

Variables in Reliability Analysis

MTTF and MTTR

Mean Time to Failure

MTTF m

Mean Time to Repair

MTTR r

MTBF
Mean Time Between Failure

MTBF T m r
T waktu siklus rata rata
m waktu rata rata gangguan
r waktu rata rata perbaikan

Model Komponen
Type of Failure Rates
A = Active Failure Rate (Failure / Year)
Bentuk kegagalan komponen yang menyebabkan
beroperasinya zona pengaman primer di sekitar
komponen yang mengalami kegagalan tersebut.
Jika kegagalan aktif telah terisolasi maka breaker akan
menutup kembali (reclosed)
Contoh: Kegagalan short circuit

Model Komponen
Type of Failure Rates
p = Passive Failure Rate (Failure / Year)
Bentuk
kegagalan
komponen
yang
tidak
menyebabkan beroperasinya breaker pengaman dan tidak
berpengaruh terhadap komponen sehat yang tersisa,
pembukaan jaringan dan membukanya breaker karena
kesalahan operasi yang tidak meyebabkan pemadaman.
Kegagalan dari komponen itu sendiri dan akan
berakhir setelah diperbaiki atau dilakukan penggantian

Indeks Keandalan Sistem Distribusi

Reliability Index

Average Failure Rate pada load point i i (f/yr)

Menyatakan jumlah gangguan yang terjadi setiap tahunnya, dapat
dirumuskan sebagai berikut:

Annual Outage Duration pada load point i Ui (hr/yr)

Menyatakan lama pemadaman akibat gangguan setiap tahunnya, dapat
dirumuskan sebagai berikut:

Indeks Keandalan Sistem Distribusi

Reliability Index

Average Outage Duration pada load point i ri (hr)

Dirumuskan sebagai berikut:

Expected Energy Not Supplied Index pada load point i,

EENSi - (MW hr/yr)
Dirumuskan sebagai berikut:

Expected Interruption Cost Index pada load point i,

ECOSTi - (k$/yr)
Dirumuskan sebagai berikut:

Reliability Index
Interrupted Energy Assesment Rate Index pada Load
Point, IEARi ($/kWhr):

System Average Interruption Duration Index

(SAIDI)
Historical assessment:
SAIDI

Total Duration of Customer Interruptions

Total Number of Customers Served

Predictive assessment: Uses Load Point Indices

SAIDI

ri N i N lpU lp

NT
N lp

where Nlp = number of customers at load point lp

and
Ulp = interruption duration at load point lp

Reliability Index

System-wide Reliability Indices

System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI)

Historical assessment:
Total Number of Customer Interruptions
SAIFI
Total Number of Customers Served

Predictive assessment:
N i N lp lp
SAIFI

NT
N lp

Reliability Index

System-wide Reliability Indices

Customer Average Interruption Duration Index

(CAIDI)

Historical assessment:
Customer Interruption Durations
CAIDI
Total Number of Customer Interruptions

Predictive assessment:

SAIDI
CAIDI
SAIFI

Indeks Keandalan Sistem Distribusi

Reliability Index

Average Service Availability index, ASAI (p.u):

Average Service Unavailability Index, ASUI (p.u):

Indeks Keandalan Sistem Distribusi

Reliability Index

System Expected Energy Not Supplied Index , EENS

(MW hr/yr):

System Expected Interruption Cost Index, ECOST (k$/yr)

Methods for Reliability Analysis

Historical
Network Reduction
Fault Modes and Effects Analysis
Markov Modeling
Monte Carlo Simulation

Predictive Reliability Assessment

Techniques
Methods:
Network Reduction

Network Modeling

Markov Modeling
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
(FMEA)
Monte Carlo Simulation

Markov Modeling

Monte Carlo Simulation

Network Reduction
A. Komponen Rangkaian Seri

Laju kegagalan rata-rata sistem adalah

S 1 2
Durasi perbaikan rata-rata sistem adalah
rS

1 .r1 2 .r2
r1 r2

.r

Jumlah rata-rata waktu pemadaman

U S S . rS

Example

1.Pemadaman rata-rata

1 1,0

r1 5

2 0,005

r2 4

S 1 2
S ( 0,1 . 10 ) ( 0,5 % ) 1,005

2. Rata- rata lama perbaikan

.r .r
rS 1 1 2 2
1 2
rS

3. Jumlah rata-rata waktu pemadaman

U S S . rS 1,005 . 4,995 5,02

(1 . 5 ) ( 0,005 . 4 ) 5 0,2

1 0,005
1,005

4,995

Network Reduction
B. Komponen Rangkaian Pararel

Laju Kegagalan rata-rata sistem adalah

P 1 . 2 ( r1 r2 )
Durasi perbaikan rata-rata sistem adalah

r1 x r2
rP
r1 r2
Jumlah rata-rata waktu pemadaman

U P P . rP

Example

Example
2 a (0,1 * 10) 1

r2 a 5

2b (0,5 / 100) 0,005

r2b 4

1 1a 1b
.r .r
r1 1a 1a 1b 1b
r1a r1b
1 1,005

r1 4,995

2 1,005

r2 4,995

Example
A. Laju kegagalan rata-rata per tahun

P 1 . 2 ( r1 r2 )
p (1,005 * 1,005 ) (4,995 4,995 ) / 8760 10,09 / 8760 0.0011
B. Rata- rata lama pemadaman
rP

r1 * r2
r1 r2

rP

( 4,995 ) * ( 4,995 ) 24,95

2,497
4,995 4,995
9,99

C. Jumlah rata-rata waktu pemadaman

U S P . rP 0,0011* 2,497 2,497 .103

Example
Load Point

Number of Customers (N)

Average Load Connected (kW)

1000

5000

800

3600

600

2800

800

3400

500

2400

300

1800

Total

4000

19000

Example
Interruption Load Point
Case
Affected

Number of
Load Duration of Customer
Customer
Curtailed Interruption
Hours
Disconnected
Lc (kW) d (hours)
Curtailed
(Nc)

Energy not
Supplied
(kWh)

800

3600

2400

10800

600

2800

1800

8400

300

1800

600

3600

600

2800

600

2800

500

2400

1.5

750

3600

300

1800

1.5

450

2700

3100

15200

6600

31900

Total

Number of Customers Affected

800+600 +300+500

=2200

Example
Example
Load Point
L1
L2
L3
Load Point

(f/yr)
0.2
0.3
0.5

r (hours)
6
6
6

U (hours/yr)
1.2
1.7
2.9

()

L1

200

1000

L2

150

700

L3

100

400

Total

450

2100

Evaluation Method

Component data for the system of figure

Line
A
B
C

Load Point
L1
L2
L3

(f/yr)
0.2
0.1
0.15

(f/yr)
0.20
0.30
0.45

r (hours)
6
5
8

r (hours) (hours/yr)
6.0
1.2
5.7
1.7
6.4
2.9

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis

Component
Section
1
2
3
4
Distributor
a
b
c
d

Length (km)

f/yr

r (hours)

2
1
3
2

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

1
3
2
1

0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2

2
2
2
2

Data Sistem

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution system

Compone
nt
Failure

Load Point A

Load Point B

Load Point C

(f/yr)

r
(Hour
s)

U
(Hours/yr)

(f/yr)

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2

2
2
2
2

0.4
1.2
0.8
0.4

0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2

2
2
2
2

0.4
1.2
0.8
0.4

0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2

2
2
2
2

U
r (Hours) (Hours/yr)

(f/yr)

Load Point D

(f/yr)

r
(Hours)

U (Hours/yr)

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.4
1.2
0.8
0.4

0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2

2
2
2
2

0.4
1.2
0.8
0.4

6.0

2.2

2.73

6.0

U
r (Hours) (Hours/yr)

Section

1
2

3
4
Distributo
r

a
b
c
d

Total

2.2 2.73

6.0

2.2 2.73

6.0

2.2 2.73

Distribution System with Fuse

Effect of Fuse on Distributor Line

Component
Failure

Load Point A

Load Point B

Load Point C

r
(f/yr) (Hours) U (Hours/yr) X (f/yr) r (Hours) U (Hours/yr) X (f/yr) r (Hours) U (Hours/yr)

Load Point D
X (f/yr) r (Hours)

U (Hours/yr)

Section

1
2
3
4

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.2

0.4

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.6

1.2

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.4

0.8

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.2

0.4

1.0

3.6

3.6

Distributor

a
b
c
d

Total

1.0 3.6

3.6

1.4

3.14

4.4

1.2

3.33

4.0

Distribution System with Sectionalizer

Effect of Sectionalizer
Component
Failure

Load Point A

Load Point B

Load Point C

r
(f/yr) (Hours) U (Hours/yr) X (f/yr) r (Hours) U (Hours/yr) X (f/yr) r (Hours) U (Hours/yr)

Load Point D
X (f/yr) r (Hours)

U (Hours/yr)

Section

1
2
3
4

0.2 4
0.1 0.5
0.3 0.5
0.2 0.5

0.8
0.05
0.15
0.1

0.2

0.4

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
0.5
0.5

0.8
0.4
0.15
0.1

0.6

1.2

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
0.5

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.1

0.4

0.8

0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2

4
4
4
4

0.8
0.4
1.2
0.8

0.2

0.4

1.0

3.6

3.6

Distributor

b
c
d

Total

1.0 1.5 1.5

1.4

1.89

2.65

1.2 2.75

3.3

Effect of Protection Failure