CHAPTER 3 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

B. PROBABILITY

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB ) , ( HR ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

Toss a coin. If a HEAD turns up, draw one ball

from the box. If a TAIL turns up, draw two
balls from the box. Draw the balls such that
the first ball drawn is placed back in the box
before the second ball is drawn.

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB ) , ( HR ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

Let B=event of drawing a blue ball.

B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

Bc = {( HR ) , ( TRR )}

Also H=event of getting H

H = {( HB ) , (HR )} Hc = {( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

1
6

2
6

1
18

2
18

2
18

4
18

Let B=event of drawing a blue ball.

B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

Also H=event of getting H

H = {( HB ) , (HR )}

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB) , (HR) , ( TBB) , ( TRB) , ( TBR) , ( TRR)}

Let B=event of getting a Blue Ball
B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}
H = event of getting a Head
H = {(HB ) , (HR )}

Then B H = {(HR ) , (HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

CHAPTER 3 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

B. PROBABILITY

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB ) , ( HR ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

Let H1 =Head on the first coin and

H2 = Head on the second coin
H1 ={HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT}

Let B=event of drawing a blue ball.

H=event of getting H
B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )} P [B] =

Experiment. Toss 3 fair coins.

8
18

8
H = {( HB ) , (HR )} P Blue ball H has occurred
18

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB ) , ( HR ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

Let H=event of getting Head and T = event of getting Tail
H = {(HB ) , (HR )} T= {( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

H and T have no common elements mutually exclusive

H2 = {HHH, HHT, THH, THT}

Head on second given Head on the first coin
H2 head on first = {HHH, HHT}

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB) , (HR) , ( TBB) , ( TRB) , ( TBR) , ( TRR)}

Let B=event of getting a Blue Ball

B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

H = event of getting a Head

H = {(HB ) , (HR )}

Then B H = {(HR ) , (HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

B H = {(HB )}

CHAPTER 3 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

B. PROBABILITY

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB ) , ( HR ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )} P [B ] = 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 8

Also H=event of getting H

P Bc =

18

18

18

18

2 4 10
8
+
=
= 1
6 18 18
18

H = {( HB ) , (HR )} Hc = {( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

Experiment. Toss a fair coin. If the outcome is HEAD (H),

a ball is drawn from a box containing
1 Blue and 2 Red balls. If the outcome is T,
2 balls are drawn one by one w/ replacement.

S = {(HB ) , ( HR ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR ) , ( TRR )}

Let B=event of drawing a blue ball.

B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

H = {(HB ) , (HR )}

Then B H = {(HR ) , (HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )}

P [B H] = P [B] + P [H] P [B H]
=

8
9
3 14
+

=
18 18 18 18

Experiment. Toss 3 fair coins.

S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

Let H1 =Head on the first coin and

H2 = Head on the second coin
H1 = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT}

Head on second given Head on the first coin

H=event of getting H
8
B = {(HB ) , ( TBB ) , ( TRB ) , ( TBR )} P [B ] =
18
H = {( HB ) , (HR )}
P Blue ball H has occurred =

Let B=event of getting a Blue Ball

H = event of getting a Head

Let B=event of drawing a blue ball.

Bc = {( HR ) , ( TRR )}

S = {(HB) , (HR) , ( TBB) , ( TRB) , ( TBR) , ( TRR)}

P [B H]
P [H]

1
1
= 6=
1
3
2

H2 head on first = {HHH, HHT}

H2 = {HHH, HHT, THH, THT}

P [H1 H2 ] = P H2 H1 P [H2 ]
1 1 1
= =
2 2 4