Professional Documents
Culture Documents
University of Pakistan
Lecture No. 21
of the course on
Statistics and Probability
by
Dr. Adeel
IN THE LAST LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT
•Application of Addition Theorem
•Conditional Probability
•Multiplication Theorem
TOPICS FOR TODAY
P ( A 1 ) =¿ ( 10 ¿ ) ¿ ¿¿
¿
Similarly, the probability that
one white ball and one black
ball are selected from the first
bag containing 13 balls (in
order to transfer to the second
bag) is
P ( A 2 ) =¿ ( 10 ¿ ) ¿ ¿¿
¿
And, the probability that two
black balls are selected from the
first bag containing 13 balls (in
order to transfer to the second
bag) is
P ( A 3 ) =¿ ( 3 ¿ ) ¿ ¿¿
¿
AFTER having transferred 2 balls
from the first bag, the second bag
contains
i) 5 white and 5 black balls
(if 2 white balls are transferred)
Colour of No. of No. of
Ball Balls in Bag A Balls in Bag B
White 10 – 2 = 8 3+2=5
Black 3 5
Total 13 – 2 = 11 8 + 2 = 10
Hence: P(W/A1) = 5/10
ii) 4 white and 6 black balls
(if 1 white and 1 black balls
are transferred)
Colour of No. of No. of
Ball Balls in Bag A Balls in Bag B
White 10 – 1 = 7 3+1=4
Black 3–1=2 5+1=4
Total 13 – 2 = 11 8 + 2 = 10
Then
P(W) = P(A1W) + P(A2W) + P(A3W)
Now
P(A1 W) = P(A1)P(W/A1)
= 45/78 5/10
= 15/52
P(A2 W) = P(A2)P(W/A2)
= 30/78 4/10
= 2/13, and
P(A3 W) = P(A3)P(W/A3)
= 3/78 3/10
= 3/260.
Hence the required probability is
P(W)
= P(A1W) + P(A2W) + P(A3W)
= 15/52 + 2/13 + 3/260
= 59/130
= 0.45
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events A and B in the same
sample space S, are defined to be
independent (or statistically
independent) if the probability that
one event occurs, is not affected by
whether the other event has or has not
occurred, that is
P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B).
It then follows that two
events A and B are independent
if and only if
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
n ( M and S ) 8609
= =0 . 0234
n (M) 368490
This figure is the proportion ––
and, since the sample size is large,
it can be regarded as the
probability –– of males who are
still born –– in other words, the
CONDITIONAL probability of a
stillbirth given that it is a male
birth. In other words, the
probability of stillbirths in males.
The corresponding
proportion of stillbirths
among females is
7796
=0 . 0224 .
348258
These figures should be
contrasted with the OVERALL,
or UNCONDITIONAL,
proportion of stillbirths, which is
16405
=0.0229.
716740
We observe that the
conditional probability of
stillbirths among boys is slightly
HIGHER than the overall
proportion.
Where as the conditional
proportion of stillbirths among
girls is slightly LOWER than the
overall proportion.
It can be concluded that sex
and stillbirth are statistically
DEPENDENT, that is to say,
the SEX of a baby yet to be
born has an effect, (although a
small effect), on its chance of
being stillborn.
The example that we just
considered points to the concept
of MARGINAL
PROBABILITY.
Let us have another look at
the data regarding the live
births and stillbirths in England
and Wales:
Table-2
Proportion of births in England and Wales
in 1956 by sex and whether live- or stillborn.
(Source Annual Statistical Review)
= Joint Probability
Marginal Probability
EXAMPLE
P(stillbirth/male birth)
= 0.0120
0.5141
= 0.0233
IN TODAY’S LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT
•Independent and Dependent Events
•Multiplication Theorem of
Probability for Independent Events
•Marginal Probability
IN THE NEXT LECTURE,
YOU WILL LEARN
•Bayes’ Theorem
•Discrete Random Variable and
its Probability Distribution