Definition of Probability

Probability can be discussed from two points of view: the objective and the subjective
1. Objective Probability
The objective probability can be classified into the following categories each of which is briefly described
as follows:
i. The Classical or A Priori Definition of Probability
is given as follows: If a random experiment can produce n mutually exclusive and equally likely
outcomes and if m out of these outcomes are considered favorable to the occurrence of a certain
event A, then the probability of the event A denoted by P ( A ) is defined as the ratio between the
favorable number of cases to the total number of possible cases

ii. The Relative Frequency of A posteriori Definition of Probability

If a random experiment is repeated a large number of times say n, under identical conditions and if
an event A is observe to occur m times then the probability of the event A is define as the limit
of the relative frequency as n tends to infinitely Symbolically we write
iii.The Axiomatic Definition of Probability
Let S be a sample point we assign a real number denoted by the symbol E1, E2 , E3 ..., Ei .... ,En To each
sample point, we assign a real number denoted by the symbol P (Ei) and called the probability of Ei
,that must satisfy the following basic axioms

With the help of the above axioms the following theorems results can be derived

Probability Theory
Chance plays an important part in our lives. Probability deals with problems of the type ‘What is the
chance that’ some event happens and the answer in general will be a numerical quantity (the
probability).A scale of measurement is necessary and the scale we use allows probabilities to be
measured from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty).
OR The word probability has two basic meanings
 i. A quantitative measure of uncertainty and
ii. A measure of degree of belief in a particular statement
OR
A probability is a numerical measure of the chance that an event occurs .If our event is denoted by A then
we denote the probability of event A occurring by P (A)
P(A) = probability of event A occurring
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the sample space and is usually
denoted by the letter S and the possible outcomes in S are listed in curly brackets, .
Example
Experiment Sample space
Rolling a die
Examination result
Demand for a new product

Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space, or simply a
sample point.
Event
An event is a small part of a sample space OR an event is a subset of a sample space. If an event contains
only one element sample point it is called simple event otherwise it is called compound event

Practice questions

Q1 What is the probability that a vowel selected at random in an English alphabets.

Q2 Two players are to be selected out of five named a , b, c, d ,e.What is the probability that a and b
or and c and d or b and d are
Q3 There are three candidates for the award of a scholarship. Candidates A and B are given about the
same chance of winning. But candidate C is given 3 times, the chance of either A or B i. What is the
probability that C wins ii. What is the probability that A does not win
Q5 There are three candidates for the award of a scholarship. Candidates A and B are given about the
same chance of winning, but candidate C is given 3 times, the chance of either A or B
Q6 Four candidates are seeking a vacancy on a school board. If A is twice as likely to be elected a B,
and B and C are given about the same chance of being elected , while C is twice as likely to be
elected as D , what are the probability that i. C will win ? ii. A will not win

A B

Q8 The following diagram shows a system of roads. A boy walks from A to K always going by the
direction of the arrows. At any junction where he has a choice
D of two roads ,itEis equally likely that
F
he will take either. Find the probability that he will walk along
C

K
G
H
 i. GH
ii. DH
iii. HK

Q9 Some of the children in a class write down the first letter of their surname on a card; these cards
are shown below:

One of these cards is taken at random. What is the probability that the letter on it is:
i. W ii. S or T iii. J or M iv. not H v. a vowel

Q 10 Ahmed writes a computer program that produces at random one of these digits: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
7, 8, 9 i. an even number ii. a multiple of 4 iii. a number less than 7 iv.  a multiple of 5

Q 11 The police line up 10 people in an identity parade; only one of the people is the criminal. A
witness does not recognize the criminal and so chooses a person at random. What is the
probability that: a. the criminal is chosen b.  the criminal is not chosen

Q A mainframe computer has 4 ports. At any given time each port is either in use or not in use. How
many possibilities are therefore overall port usage of this computer? Determine possible
outcomes of at least two ports.

Success is a journey not a destination

Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is
a) equal to 1
b) equal to 4
c) less than 13
Solution
a) The sample space S of two dice is shown below.

S= { (1 , 1 ) , ( 1 , 2 ) , ( 1 , 3 ) , ( 1 , 4 ) , ( 1 , 5 ) , ( 1 , 6 )
( 2 , 1) , ( 2 , 2 ) , ( 2 , 3 ) , ( 2 , 4 ) , ( 2 , 5 ) , ( 2 , 6 )
( 3 , 1) , ( 3 , 2 ) , ( 3 , 3 ) , ( 3 , 4 ) , ( 3 , 5 ) , ( 3 , 6 )
( 4 , 1) , ( 4 , 2 ) , ( 4 , 3) , ( 4 , 4) , ( 4 , 5) , ( 4 , 6 )
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)

(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
Let E be the event "sum equal to 1". There are no outcomes which correspond to a sum equal to
1, hence
a. P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0

b) Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4:

E = { ( 1 , 3 ) , ( 2 , 2 ) , ( 3 , 1 ) }, hence.
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12

c) All possible outcomes, E = S, give a sum less than 13, hence.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1