ENGINEERING DATA

ANALYSIS
Engr. Ralph T. Crucillo / Engr. Hersel Danna E. Sangalang
Department of Civil Engineering
College of Engineering and Information Technology
2nd Semester, A.Y. 2019-2020
PROBABILITY
Lesson 3
PROBABILITY
• Is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how
likely it is that proposition is true.
• Is a number between 0 to 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates
impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.
• The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that event
will occur.
PROBABILITY
SAMPLE SPACE
The setoff all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment represented
by the symbol “S”.

ELEMENT
Each outcome in a sample space or a member of the sample space.
PROBABILITY
Example:

Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the

number that shows on the top face, the sample space would be

S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
PROBABILITY
Example #2:
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second
time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first, flip, then a die is
tossed once. To list the elements of the sample space providing the
most information, we construct the tree diagram

S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}

PROBABILITY
EVENT
Is any collection of sample points called subset of sample space.

Example #3: An experiment that tosses a coin 3 times.

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
A = event that has at least 1 head
B = event that has at most 1 head

Ea = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH}

Eb = {HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
PROBABILITY | Basic Rules
1. The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all
elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by
the symbol A’.
2. The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩
B is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
3. Two event A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = Ø
that is, A and B have no elements in common.
4. The union of events A and B, denoted by A∪B, is the event containing all
the elements that belong to A or b or both.
PROBABILITY | Basic Rules
VENN DIAGRAMS
A∩B=
B∩C =
A∪C=
B’ ∩ A =
A ∩B∩C=
(A ∪ B) ∪ C =
Counting Sample Points
1st Rule : If operations can be performed in n ways, and if for each of
these ways a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then two
operations can be performed in n1n2 ways.

Example:
How many even numbers of four digits can be formed with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,
5 and 6 no digit being used more?
How many 4-digit even number can be formed from 0, 1,2, 5, 6 and 9 if
each digit can be used only once?
Counting Sample Points
2nd Rule: the number of permutations of n objects is n!
**A permutation is an arrangement of all part of a set of objects.
Example:
The number of permutation of letters a, b, c, d.
How many ways can 8 cadets stand in a row?
In how many ways the word SURVEYING can be arranged?
Counting Sample Points
3rd Rule: The number of permutation of n distinct object taken r at a
time is

Example:
In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given
for a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If each
student can receive at most one award, how many possible selections
are there?
Counting Sample Points
Example:
A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club
consisting of 50 people. How many different choices of officers are
possible if
(a) There are no restrictions;
(b) (b) A will serve only if he is president;
(c) B and C will serve together or not at all;
Counting Sample Points
Example:
permutation lock will open when the right choice of three numbers
(from 1 to 30 inclusive) is selected. How many different lock
permutations ae possible assuming no number is repeated?
Counting Sample Points
Cyclic Permutation
The permutation of n objects in a circle is:

Example:
In how many ways can 6 people be seated at a round table?
Find the number of ways in which 5 people A, B, C, D, E can be seated
at a round table such that (a) A and B must sit together. (b) C and D
must not sit together.
Counting Sample Points
Example:

In how many ways can 2 boys and 1 girl can be seated around a table?

How many ways are there to seat 4 people around a round table for
lunch ?
a. If all diners shift one chair clockwise?
b. If one seat is a blue throne and it matters who is sitting in the blue
throne?
Counting Sample Points
4th Rule: The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1
are one of a kind, n2 of a second kind, . . . . Nk of nth kind is

Example#5: In a college football training session, the defensive

coordinator needs to have 10 players standing in a row. Among these
10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3
seniors, respectively. How many different ways can they be arranged in
a row if only their class level will be distinguished?
Counting Sample Points
Example #6:
In how many words can the letters of the word ENGINEERING be
arranged?

In how many ways can the letters of the word MATHALINO be arranged
if the vowels are to come together?

In how many ways can the letters MATHEMATICS be arranged if the

consonants are to come together?
Counting Sample Points
5th Rule: The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a
time is

= nCr

Example#6: A young boy asks his mother to get five Game-BoyTM

cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports games. How
many ways are there that his mother will get 3 arcade and 2 sports
games, respectively?
Counting Sample Points
Example:

There are seven boys and three girls on a school tennis team. The
coach must select four people from this group to participate in the
county championship.
a. How many four-person teams can be formed from the group of ten
students?
b. How many ways can two boys and two girls be chosen to
participate in the county championship?
Counting Sample Points
Example:

On a circle there are 9 points selected. How many triangles with edges
in theses points exist?

To win a particular lottery game, a player chooses 6 numbers from 1 to

47. Each number can only be chosen once. If all 6 numbers match the
6 winning numbers, regardless of the order, the player wins. What is
the probability of winning?
In how many ways can 10 cards be drawn from a deck of 52 cards?
Conditional Probability

The probability that event B occurs given that A has occurred is

denoted by P(B/A). This is called the conditional probability
𝐵 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ⋂ 𝐵)
𝑃( )=
𝐴 𝑃 ( 𝐴)
𝐵 𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 )
𝑃( )=
𝐴 𝑃 ( 𝐴)
Types of Events
Dependent and Independent Events
If the probability of one event does not affect the probability of
another event, then, the events are said to be independent, otherwise,
the events are dependent.

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if each event
cannot happen in a single moment.
Probability
Compute the probability that a ‘6’ will come up on at least one of the
two dice.

Two dice are tossed. What is the probability of getting on the faces of
the two dice a sum of 7?

Two coins are tossed. What is the probability that they will both turn up
heads?
Probability
A card is drawn from a deck of cards, what is the probability that it is a
face card?

A card is selected from a deck, what is the probability that it is a queen

if it is a red card?

From 42 students. 25 like Calculus and 15 like Algebra.

Addition Rule
This is also called the OR Rule from which mutually exclusive events can
be calculated. The probability that events A or B will occur is given by:
Addition Rule
Example:
You draw a card from the deck, what is the probability that it is a KING
or an EIGHT?

What is the probability that it is a king or a black card?

A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a

5?
Addition Rule
Example:
A Spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, and red.
What is the probability of landing on red or blue after spinning the
spinner?

A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue and 4 yellow marbles. If a

single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability
that it is yellow or green?
In a Math Class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit
test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen at
random from the class, what is the probability of choosing a girl or an A
student?
Multipication Rule

This is also called the AND Rule from which dependent and
independents can be calculated. The probability that two events a and
B will occur in sequence is
Multipication Rule
Example:
You select two cards from a deck, in succession. What is the probability
that you get 2 Kings? (a) w/ replacement (b) w/o replacement

You have a cowboy hat, a top hat and an Indonesian hat called
songkok. You also have four shirts: white, black, green and pink. If you
choose one hat and shirt at random, what is the probability that you
choose the songkok and black shirt?
Multipication Rule
Example:
Suppose you take out two cards from a standard pack of cards one after
another, without replacing the first card. What is probability that the
first card is the ace of spades, and the second card is a heart?

Suppose you have a box 3 blue marbles, 2 red marbles, and 4 yellow
marbles. You are going to pull out one marble, record its color, put it
back in the box and draw another marble. What is the probability of
pulling out a red marble followed by a blue marble?
Binomial Distribution
Probability of success in a sequence of n independent experiments.

n = number of trials
x = number of successes in trials
p = probability of success of a single trial
q = probability of failure of a single trial
Binomial Distribution

Example:
In a 5 item exam, with 4 choices on each item . What is the probability
that you get:
a. Exactly 3 correct answers
b. At least 3 correct answers
c. A perfect score
Binomial Distribution
The probability of winning a match for team A is 0.6. Find the
probability of winning 3 matches out of 5.

If a coin is tossed thrice, find the probability of getting head at least two
times.

If only 5 percent kids can secure A grade in paper, find the probability
of a most 2 out of 10 kids getting A grade in that paper.
At Least One Condition
The probability of an event to happen at least once is

P=1–Q

Where Q is the probability to fail.

At Least One Condition
A basketball player has a 70’5 free throw shooting percentage. If he shoots
3 free throws, what is the probability that he makes at least one?

Topford supplies X-Data in lots of 50, and they have reported defect rate of
0.5%. What is the probability of getting at least one defective disk in a lot of
50?

Set A: [A, B, C, D, E]
Set B: [K, L, M, N, O, P]
There are these two sets of letters, and you are going to pick exactly one
letter from each set. What is the probability of at least one vowel being
picked?