II.

Probability
Math221E – Engineering Data Analysis
Sample Space and
Events
Probability Theory
Statistics is basically concerned of
presentation and interpretation of chance
outcomes that occur in a planned study or
scientific investigation.
Jointly with statistics, probability theory is
a branch of mathematics that has been
developed to deal with uncertainty.
Probability is used to quantify the
likelihood, or chance, that an outcome of a
random experiment will occur.
Probability
A set real numbers ranging from 0 to 1 that
evaluates the likelihood of the occurrence of
an event resulting from statistical
experiments.
number of ways event A can occur
𝑃 𝐴 =
total number of possible outcomes
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of a
statistical experiment, usually represented
by the symbol S.
Each outcome is called an element or
sample point.
Sample space
S={heads, tails} S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Example 2.1
An experiment consists of
flipping a coin and then
flipping it a second time if
a head occurs. If a tail
occurs on the first, flip,
then a die is tossed once.
To list the elements of the
sample space providing the
most information, we
construct the tree diagram

S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}

Event
An event is any collection of sample points
called subset of a sample space, usually
represented by the symbol E.
It is a set consisting of possible outcomes of
the experiment. If the outcome of the
experiment is contained in E, then we say
that E has occurred.
Example 2.2
An experiment tosses a coin 3 times.
Determine the event that has:
a. at least 1 head, and
b. at most 1 head.
Example 2.2
The sample space is S={HHH, HHT, HTH,
HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
a. At least 1 head (Event A)
EA = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT,
TTH}
b. At most 1 head (Event B)
EB = {HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Basic Rules
1. The complement of an event A with respect to S is
the subset of all elements of S that are not in A. We
denote the complement of A by the symbol A’.
2. The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by
the symbol 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵, is the event containing all
elements that are common to A and B.
3. Two event A and B are mutually exclusive, or
disjoint, if 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙 (null set), that is, A and B have
no elements in common.
4. The union of events A and B, denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, is
the event containing all the elements that belong to
A or B or both.
Venn Diagrams
We can use Venn diagrams to represent a
sample space and events in a sample space.
Counting
Techniques
Counting Techniques
In more complicated examples, determining
the outcomes in the sample space (or an
event) becomes more difficult. In these
cases, counts of the numbers of outcomes in
the sample space and various events are
used to analyze the random experiments.
These methods are referred to as counting
techniques.
Multiplication Rule
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways,
and if for each of these ways a second
operation can be performed in n2 ways, then
the two operations can be performed
together in n1n2 ways. This can be extended
to 𝑘 operations.
𝑆 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 … 𝑛𝑘
Example 2.3
How many sample points are there in the
sample space when a pair of dice is thrown
once?
Example 2.3
The sample space for a die is S={1,2,3,4,5,6},
hence it can be performed in 6 ways. If a
pair of dice is rolled, the number of sample
points according to the multiplication rule is
given by:
𝑛1 𝑛2 = 6 6 = 36
Example 2.4
How many possible plate numbers can exist
in the Philippines based on the current LTO
system? 17,576,000
Example 2.5
How many three digit numbers can be
formed from the digits 0, 1, 3, 5, 7 provided
each digit can be used only once? 48
Permutation
A permutation is an arrangement of all or
part of a set of objects.
For any non-negative integer 𝑛, 𝑛!, called “n
factorial,” is defined as
𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) · · · (2)(1)
The number of permutations of 𝑛 objects is
𝑛!
Permutation
The number of permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time,” or simply “𝑛 taken
𝑟” is
𝑛!
𝑛 𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
Example 2.6
Consider the three letters a, b, and c. What
are the possible permutations?
Example 2.6
Consider the three letters a, b, and c. What
are the possible permutations?
𝑛=3
𝑛! = 3! = 6
There are 6 possible permutations, and
these are:
𝑆 = {𝑎𝑏𝑐, 𝑎𝑐𝑏, 𝑏𝑎𝑐, 𝑏𝑐𝑎, 𝑐𝑎𝑏, 𝑐𝑏𝑎}
Example 2.7
Consider the letters a, b, c, and d. What is
the number of possible permutations by
taking two letters at a time? 12
Permutation with things alike
The number of distinct permutations of n things
of which 𝑟1 are of one kind, 𝑟2 of a second kind, .
. . , 𝑟𝑘 of a 𝑘th kind is
𝑛!
𝑟1 ! 𝑟2 ! … 𝑟𝑘 !
Example 2.8
Determine the number of permutations that
can be formed using the letters of the word
DADDY.
Example 2.8
Determine the number of permutations that
can be formed using the letters of the word
DADDY.
𝑛 = 5, 𝑟𝐷 = 3, 𝑟𝐴 = 1, 𝑟𝑌 = 1
𝑛! 5!
= = 20
𝑟𝐷 ! 𝑟𝐴 ! 𝑟𝑌 ! (3!)(1!)(1!)
Circular Permutation
The number of permutations of n objects
arranged in a circle is
𝑛−1 !
Example 2.9
In how many ways can 6 persons be seated
around a table with 6 chairs if two
individuals wanted to be seated side by
side?
Example 2.9
Since two individuals wanted to sit side by
side, we count them as one individual. We
then look for the ways for 5 persons to be
seated around a table.
5 − 1 ! = 24
Also, there are 2! permutations for the two
individuals to sit side by side. Hence,
(24)(2!) = 48
Combinations
Combination is done if we take 𝑟 objects
without considering the order in which the
objects are taken.
Combinations
The number of combinations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is
𝑛 𝑛!
= = 𝑛 𝐶𝑟
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
Combinations (Partitioning)
The combinations of n distinct objects taken
r at a time can be interpreted as
partitioning 𝑛 into two groups: 𝑟 (objects
taken) and 𝑛 − 𝑟 (objects not taken).
Partitioning can be extended to k groups so
that the number of ways is
𝑛!
𝑟1 ! 𝑟2 ! … 𝑟𝑘 !
where 𝑟1 + 𝑟2 + ⋯ + 𝑟𝑘 = 𝑛.
Example 2.10
A club consists of 30 members. In how many
ways can it select:
a. President, Vice-President, and a
Secretary-Treasurer?
b. 5 members for a food committee?
c. 5 members for a food committee and 10
members for printing committee?
Example 2.10
a. From 30 members, we select 3 distinct
positions
Using multiplication rule:
30 29 28 = 24360
Is order important? Yes, use permutation.
30 𝑃3 = 24360
Example 2.10
a. From 30 members, we select 3 distinct
positions
Using partitioning, we select 1 for president,
1 for vice-president, 1 for secretary-
treasurer, and we do not select the
remaining 27:
30!
= 24360
1! 1! 1! 27!
Example 2.10
b. From 30 members, we select 5 members
Is order important? No, use combination.
30 𝐶5 = 142506
c. From 30 members, we select 5 members
for a food committee and 10 members for
printing committee
Using partitioning:
30!
= 4.66 × 1011
5! 10! 15!
Example 2.11
Say we want to multiply out (x + y)4=(x + y)
(x + y) (x + y) (x + y). How many x3y terms
will be present?
Example 2.11
The power 4 will be distributed to the
binomial 𝑥 + 𝑦 . Using partitioning, 3
should go to the first term 𝑥 to produce 𝑥 3
and 1 should go to the second term 𝑦 to
produce 𝑦. This results to 𝑥 3 𝑦.
4!
= 4
3! 1!
Example 2.12
There are 9 students in a particular lab
class. How many distinct ways are there to
form a group of 3? 84
Example 2.13
In how many ways can a player randomly
get three games from his collection of ten?
120
Example 2.14
In how many ways can 7 students be
assigned to 1 triple and 2 double hotel
rooms during a conference? 210
Rules of
Probability
Random Variable
A random variable is a function that
associates a real number with each element
in the sample space.
X denotes a random variable.
x denotes its cases.
Random Variable: Illustration
Two balls are drawn in succession without
replacement from an urn containing 4 red
balls and 3 black balls. Assigning X=0 for
black, X=1 for red, the possible outcomes
are:
Outcomes Assigned X
RR 2
RB 1
BR 1
BB 0
Types of random variables
Discrete Random Variable
Sample space contains a finite number of
elements.
Continuous Random Variable
Sample space contains an infinite number of
possibilities.
Probability
Whenever a sample space consists of 𝑁
possible outcomes that are equally likely,
the probability of each outcome is 1/𝑁.
For a discrete sample space, the probability
of an event 𝐸, denoted as 𝑃(𝐸), equals the
sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in
𝐸.
Probability
A set real numbers ranging from 0 to 1 that
evaluates the likelihood of the occurrence of
an event resulting from statistical
experiments.
number of ways event E can occur
𝑃 E =
total number of possible outcomes
𝑛 𝐸
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛 𝑆
Example 2.15
If a pair of dice is rolled, then determine the
probability of the following:
a. Event of getting a sum of 5
b. Event of getting a sum of at most 4
Example 2.15
𝑛 𝑆 = 6 6 = 36. Let X=sum.
a. Event of getting a sum of 5
𝐸 = 1,4 , 2,3 , 3,2 , 4,1
𝑛 𝑋=5 =4
𝑃 𝑋 = 5 = 4/36 = 1/9

b. Event of getting a sum of at most 4

𝑃 𝑋 ≤4 =𝑃 𝑋 =2 +𝑃 𝑋 =3 +𝑃 𝑋 =4
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4) = 1/6
Example 2.16
A student in a statistics class was able to
compute the probability of passing the
subject to be equal to 0.46. based on this
information, what is the probability that he
is not going to pass the subject? 0.54
Approaches
1. Subjective Probability
2. Probability of the Relative Frequency
3. Classical Probability
Example 2.17
What is the probability that you will pass
the board exam?
I reviewed well, so I think about 80%.
(Subjective probability)
Example 2.18
Last year, the efficiency ratings
Efficiency No. of
Rating Employees

of the 406 employees of a certain 70-75 75

company were taken and 76-81 86
presented in a frequency 82-87 105
distribution table on the right. 88-93 80
94-99 60
What is the probability that an Total 406
employee will have a minimum
efficiency rating of 88?
Example 2.18
Let X=efficiency rating.
Efficiency No. of
Rating Employees

𝑛 𝑆 = 406 70-75 75
𝑛 88 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 93 = 80 76-81 86
𝑛 94 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 99 = 60 82-87 105
𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 88 = (80 + 60)/406 88-93 80
𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 88 = 10/29 94-99 60
Total 406
Example 2.19
If a die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting
a. An odd number? 1/2
b. An even number? 1/2
c. A perfect square? 1/3
Example 2.20
If two coins are tossed, what is the
probability of getting both heads? 1/4
Example 2.21
A box has 3 red, 4 green, and 6 yellow balls.
If a ball is drawn from the box, what is the
probability that
a. It is green? 4/13
b. It is not red? 10/13
Addition Rule
The event that at least one of the events A
or B will happen is denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵.
The event that both events A and B will
occur is denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.
Addition Rule
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑛 𝐴 𝑛 𝐵 𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 = + −
𝑛 𝑆 𝑛 𝑆 𝑛 𝑆
Mutually exclusive: if both events cannot
occur at the same time; 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙
Addition rule: 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵
Example 2.22
Consider the activity of rolling a die.
Determine the probability of getting
a. An odd or an even number
b. An even number or a perfect square
Example 2.22
a. An odd or an even number
𝑃 𝑂 = 3/6
𝑃 𝐸 = 3/6
𝑃 𝑂∪𝐸 =𝑃 𝑂 +𝑃 𝐸 = 1
b. An even number or a perfect square
2/3
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability
that a second event will occur if the first
event already happened.
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = , provided 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0
𝑃 𝐵
𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑛 𝐵
Example 2.23
Suppose that P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.3, and
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.2.
a. What is the probability that only event A
occurs?
b. What is the probability that either event
A or B occurs?
c. Given that the outcome of the
experiment belongs to B, what is then
the probability of A?
Example 2.23
Suppose that P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.3, and
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.2.
a. What is the probability that only event A
occurs? 𝐴 𝐵
𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐸 =𝑃 𝐴 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 0.2
𝑃 𝐸 = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5
b. What is the probability that either event
A or B occurs? 0.6
Example 2.23
Suppose that P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.3, and
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.2.
c. Given that the outcome of the
experiment belongs to B, what is then
the probability of A?
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 0.2
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = = = 2/3
𝑃(𝐵) 0.3
Example 2.24
A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing
cards. Given that the card drawn is a face
card, then what is the probability of getting
a. A king? 1/3
b. A spade? 1/4
c. A red card? 1/2
Example 2.25
A vendor has 35 balloons on strings. Twenty
balloons are yellow, 8 are red, and 7 are
green. A balloon was selected at random and
sold. Given that the balloon selected and
sold is yellow, what is the probability that
the next balloon selected and sold at random
is
a. Also yellow? 19/34
b. Red or yellow? 27/34
Example 2.26
A box contains 6 black and 5 yellow
marbles. Two marbles are drawn from the
box in succession without replacement.
What is the probability of getting
a. Black on the first draw? 6/11
b. Black on the second draw given that it is
black on the first draw? 1/2
c. Black on the second draw given that it is
yellow on the first draw? 3/5
Multiplication Rule
The probability that both events occur is
given by:
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 𝑃(𝐵)
Independent events – if the occurrence of A
does not affect the probability of occurrence
of B, or vice versa
For independent events:
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ; 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵)
Example 2.27
A box contains 7 red and 6 green balls. If 2
balls are drawn from the box, what is the
probability of getting
a. both green?
b. 1 red and 1 green?
Example 2.27
A box contains 7 red and 6 green balls. If 2 balls
are drawn from the box, what is the probability
of getting
a. both green?
Since order is not important, the number of ways
to draw 2 balls is 13 𝐶2 = 78
Drawing 0 red ball (R=0) from 7 and drawing 2
green balls (G) from 6 are independent events.
𝑃 𝐸 =𝑃 𝑅 =0 ×𝑃 𝐺 =2
7 𝐶0 × 6 𝐶2 (1)(15)
𝑃 𝐸 = = = 5/26
13 𝐶2 78
b. 1 red and 1 green? 7/13
Example 2.28
A box contains 3 red and 8 black balls. If
two balls are drawn in succession without
replacement, what is the probability that
a. both are red? 3/55
b. The first ball is red and the second ball
is black? 12/55