CAPITOL UNIVERSITY BASIC EDUCATION DEPARTMENT

Senior High School Department

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

MODULE 2: COMPUTING PROBABILITIES

OBJECTIVES:

In this module, you will be able to:

 Identify sample space and determine the probability of an event using classical or
empirical probability; and
 Determine the probability of compound events using the addition and
multiplication rules

SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS

A SAMPLE SPACE, also called an outcome space, is simply the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment. On the other hand, an EVENT refers to a subset of the
sample space. Note that sample spaces and events are sets and they should be written
using "braces"; thus, they are written in roster form. To illustrate sample spaces and
events, study the following examples.

Example 1: .Suppose two different coins are tossed at random. You know that the
possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH, and TT. Thus, the sample space S is given by the
finite set

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

Example 2: Three books are to be selected from five books on a shelf. If the books
consist of algebra, geometry, statistics, history, and physics books, then the sample
space is the set B such that B = {algebra, geometry, statistics, history, physics} and
the event "math books" is the set M such that M= {algebra, geometry, statistics).
 Example 3: Two fair dice are rolled and the outcome is recorded. Write a set for the
following events: (a) sum of 5 and (b) doubles.

Solution: Since there are two dice in the experiment and each die has 6 faces, by the
fundamental principle of counting, then, there are 6 x 6 = 36 outcomes. Thus, the
sample space S is:

S = { (l, l), (l, 2), (l, 3), (l, 4), (l, 5), (l, 6), (2, l), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (3, l), (3, 2),
(3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, l), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, l), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4),
(5, 5), (5, 6), (6, l), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }

From the sample space, the event “SUM OF 5” is the set F = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}

and the event “DOUBLES” is the set D = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}

SIMPLE PROBABILITY

Once the number of elements in both the event and the sample space is determined, it

is now easy to compute the probability of an event. The PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT is a

numerical value that describes the likelihood that an event will happen or not. It is

simply calculated using the ratio of the cardinality of the event and the cardinality of the

sample space.

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

The probability of an event, denoted as P(E), is the numerical measure of the

likelihood that an event will occur. It is calculated by finding the quotient of the
number of favorable outcomes and the total number of possible outcomes. In
symbols,

𝐧 𝐄
𝐏 𝐄 =
𝐧 𝐒

Where n(E) is the number of the elements in the event and n(S) is the number of the
elements in the sample space.
 Since you know that the event is a subset of the sample space in symbols, E ⸦ S,
then by the definition of a subset, n(E) ≤ n(S). This validates the following
observations:

1. The probability of an event is always a value between and including 0 and l,

in symbols,
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1. A probability of 0 means that the event is impossible to happen
while a probability of 1 means that the event is certain to happen. Also, the
event is less likely to happen when the probability is close to 0 and is more
likely to happen when the probability is close to l.
2. The probability that an event will happen and probability that it will not give
a sum of l, or in symbols, P(E) + P(E’) = 1. Therefore, P(E’) = 1 – P(E). This is
called the complement rule of probability.

Example 1: If you flip two coins, the event "both heads" is given by the set (HH} and

the sample space is the set {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Using the formula, the probability that the

𝐧 𝐄 𝟏
two coins will land on both heads is 𝐏 𝐄 = = 𝟒. This can also be written as
𝐧 𝐒

0.25 or 25%.

Example 2: A pair of dice is thrown. The event "prime sum" is the set {(1,1), (1,2), (l,4),

(l,6), (2, l), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (4,l), (4,3), (5,2), (5,6), (6,1), (6, 5)}. You know that

there are 36 elements in the sample space. Thus, the probability of getting a sum that

𝐧 𝐄 𝟏𝟓 𝟓
is 𝐏 𝐄 = = = or 41.67%.
𝐧 𝐒 𝟑𝟔 𝟏𝟐

Example 3: If a card is selected at random from a standard deck of 52 cards, the event

"black jack" has two elements since E = {jack of spades, jack of clubs}. The probability of

picking a blackjack at random, then, is P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 2/52 = 1/26 or approximately

3.85%.
The previous examples involved computing probabilities by simply listing and
counting the number of possible outcomes. In other cases, it is necessary to use the
different counting techniques discussed in the previous module. Study the next
example.

Example 4: Miss Cruz is randomly choosing 3 students for a team who will
compete in a math quiz bee, and there are 5 girls and 8 boys to choose from.
What is the probability of having a team made up of 2 girls and a boy?

Solution: Since the problem involves the formation of teams in which order is
not important, it can be solved using the combination rule. The number of
5! 8! 5! 8!
elements in the event is 5C2 x 8C1 = 2! 𝑥 = 𝑥 = 10 𝑥 8 = 𝟖𝟎.
5−2 ! 1! 8−1 ! 2!3! 1!7!

The number of total possible outcomes in the sample space (without gender
13! 13! 13 •12•11•10!
restriction) is 13C3 = 3! 13−3 ! = = = 𝟐𝟖𝟔.
3!10! 3•2•1•10!

Using these values, the probability of having a team with 2 girls and a boy is

𝑛 𝐸 80 𝟒𝟎
𝑃 𝐸 = = = .
𝑛 𝑆 286 𝟏𝟒𝟑

This may also be written as 0.2797 or 27.97%