Probability of an event happening = 

Number of ways it can happen/Total number

of outcomes
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html
Some words have special meaning in Probability:
Experiment: a repeatable procedure with a set of possible results. Example is
throwing a dice. We can throw the dice again and again, so it is repeatable.
Outcome: A possible result of an experiment. Like – getting a 4 when we throw a
dice.
Sample Space: all the possible outcomes of an experiment.
Sample Point: just one of the possible outcomes

 the King of Hearts is a sample point

"King" is not a sample point. There are 4 Kings, so that is 4 different sample points.

Event: one or more outcomes of an experiment

An event can be just one outcome:

 Getting a Tail when tossing a coin

 Rolling a "5"

An event can include more than one outcome:

 Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Kings)

 Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6)

Addition Rules of Probability- for mutually exclusive events -

https://www.mathgoodies.com//lessons/vol6/addition_rules

Addition Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, the probability
that A or B will occur is the sum of the probability of each event.

 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

 Let's use this addition rule to find the probability for Experiment 1.
 Experiment 1: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a
2 or a 5?
  Probabilities: 

1
P(2)  = 
6

1
P(5)  = 
6

P(2 or 5)  = P(2)  + P(5)

1 1
 =   + 
6 6

  2
 = 
6

1
 = 
3
Additional Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are non-mutually exclusive, the
probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

In the rule above, P(A and B) refers to the overlap of the two events. Let's apply this
rule to some other experiments.

Experiment 5: In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit
test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen at random from the
class, what is the probability of choosing a girl or an A student?

Probabilities: P(girl or A) = P(girl) + P(A) - P(girl and A)

13  9    5 
 =   +   - 
30 30 30
 
17
 = 
30
Multiplication rule of probability  for independent event-

https://www.mathgoodies.com//lessons/vol6/independent_events

Definition: Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.

Some other examples of independent events are:

 Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.

 Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
 Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as
the second card.
 Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of
the die.

To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the
probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities.
This multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is
represented by AND.

Multiplication Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability
of both occurring is:

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following
colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching
set. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. You
replace this pair and then choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that
you will choose the red pair of socks both times?

Probabilities:

1
P(red)  = 
5

P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red)

 1 1
 =   · 
5 5
 
  1 
 = 
25
Non-replacement in a small population(finding the combination) –
(https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/discretemathematics/combinations.php)
The Combination provides the number of possible combinations that can be
obtained by taking a sample of items from a larger set. Basically, it shows how many
different possible subsets can be made from the larger set. For this calculator, the
order of the items chosen in the subset does not matter.

n = the set or population

r = subset of n or sample set

For n ≥ r ≥ 0.

The formula show us the number of ways a sample of “r” elements can be
obtained from a larger set of “n” distinguishable objects where order does not
matter and repetitions are not allowed. [1] "The number of ways of picking r
unordered outcomes from n possibilities." [2]

Also referred to as r-combination or "n choose r" or the binomial coefficient. 

In some resources the notation uses k instead of r so you may see these
referred to as k-combination or "n choose k."

Example - Choose 2 Prizes from a Set of 6 Prizes

You have won first place in a contest and are allowed to choose 2 prizes from
a table that has 6 prizes numbered 1 through 6. How many different
combinations of 2 prizes could you possibly choose?

In this example, we are taking a subset of 2 prizes (r) from a larger set of 6
prizes (n). Looking at the formula, we must calculate “6 choose 2.”

C (6,2)= 6!/(2! * (6-2)!) = 6!/(2! * 4!) = 15 Possible Prize Combinations

 The 15 potential combinations are {1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {1,5}, {1,6}, {2,3}, {2,4},
{2,5}, {2,6}, {3,4}, {3,5}, {3,6}, {4,5}, {4,6}, {5,6}

Handshake Problem

In a group of n people, how many different handshakes are possible?

First, let's find the total handshakes that are possible. That is to say, if each
person shook hands once with every other person in the group, what is the
total number of handshakes that occur?

A way of considering this is that each person in the group will make a total of
n-1 handshakes. Since there are n people, there would be n times (n-1) total
handshakes. In other words, the total number of people multiplied by the
number of handshakes that each can make will be the total handshakes. A
group of 3 would make a total of 3(3-1) = 3 * 2 = 6. Each person registers 2
handshakes with the other 2 people in the group; 3 * 2.

Total Handshakes = n(n-1)

However, this includes each handshake twice (1 with 2, 2 with 1, 1 with 3, 3

with 1, 2 with 3 and 3 with 2) and since the orginal question wants to know
how many different handshakes are possible we must divide by 2 to get the
correct answer.

Total Different Handshakes = n(n-1)/2

Handshake Problem as a Combinations Problem

We can also solve this Handshake Problem as a combinations problem as

C(n,2).

n (objects) = number of people in the group

r (sample) = 2, the number of people involved in each different handshake

The order of the items chosen in the subset does not matter so for a group of
3 it will count 1 with 2, 1 with 3, and 2 with 3 but ignore 2 with 1, 3 with 1, and
3 with 2 because these last 3 are duplicates of the first 3 respectively.

C(n,r)=n!(r!(n−r)!)C(n,r)=n!(r!(n−r)!)
C(n,2)=n!(2!(n−2)!)C(n,2)=n!(2!(n−2)!)

expanding the factorials,

=1×2×3...×(n−2)×(n−1)×(n)(2×1×(1×2×3...×(n−2)))=1×2×3...×(n−2)×(n−1)×(n)
(2×1×(1×2×3...×(n−2)))

cancelling and simplifying,

=(n−1)×(n)2=n(n−1)2=(n−1)×(n)2=n(n−1)2

which is the same as the equation above.

SETS
Sets can contain any type of values like numbers, people name etc. Suppose we
have following two sets( X and Y)-

X = {3,12,4,5,6,3}
Y = {4,6,7,33,47}
XՈY – This means that intersection of X and Y which means the values which are
common in X and Y. i.e. {4,6} in this case.
XUY = This means all the values of X and Y(i.e. X union Y). Please note X has the
value 3 twice but in union only one 3 will come . The ans in this case is
{3,12,4,5,6,7.33.47}
X-Y = This means- take all values of X excluding the values which is common in X
and Y. Here ans would be {3,12,5} . we also write it as X\Y.
X-X or X\X = This will result in empty set {} or in other words null set( Փ).

Universal Set Definition

A universal set is a set which contains all the elements or objects of other sets,
including its own elements. It is usually denoted by the symbol ‘U’.
Suppose Set A consists of all even numbers such that, A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, …} and set
B consists of all odd numbers, such that, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, …}. The universal set U
consists of all natural numbers, such that, U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,….}.
Therefore, as we know, all the even and odd numbers are a part of natural numbers.
Therefore, Set U has all the elements of Set A and Set B.
There is no formula to find the universal set, we just have to represent all the
elements in a single which is collectively called a universal set.
Fact: There is no standard notation for Universal set symbol, it can also be denoted
by any other entity like ‘V’ or ‘ξ’.
Example: Let us say, there are three sets named as A, B and C. The elements of all
sets A, B and C is defined as;
A={1,3,6,8}
B={2,3,4,5}
C={5,8,9}
Find the universal set for all the three sets A, B and C.
Answer: By the definition we know, the universal set includes all the elements of the
given sets. Therefore, Universal set for sets A, B and C will be,
U={1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9}

What is a Venn Diagram?

A diagram used to represent all possible relations of different sets. A Venn diagram
can be represented by any closed figure, whether it be a Circle or a Polygon (square,
hexagon, etc.). But usually, we use circles to represent each set. 

In the above figure, we can see a Venn diagram, represented by a rectangular

universal set, which has two independent sets X and Y. Therefore, X and Y are
disjoint sets. The two sets X and Y are represented in a circular shape. This diagram
shows that set X and set Y have no relation between each other, but they are a part
of a universal set.
For example, set X = {Set of even numbers} and set Y = {Set of odd numbers} and
Universal set, U = {set of natural numbers}

How to draw a Venn diagram?

To draw a Venn diagram, first, the universal set should be known. Now, every set is
the subset of the universal set (U). This means that every other set will be inside the
rectangle which represents the universal set.
So, any set A (shaded region) will be represented as follows:
Figure 1:

Where U is a universal set.

All the elements of set A are inside the circle. Also, they are part of the big rectangle
which makes them the elements of set U.

Compliment of Set (A’ in our above figure)

This means all things in the universe that are not in A.
A’ = U-A or U\A

Member of a set – The things/values in the set is called member of the set. It is
denoted by €. Suppose X = {1,2,3} . we can say 1 ∈ X i.e. 1 is member of X.

Not a member of a set – If any thing/value which is not in set – is called not a
member of a set. Denoted by ∉. In above example we can say 8 ∉X since 8 is not in
X.

Table of set theory symbols

 Meaning /
Symbol Symbol Name Example
definition

a collection of A = {3,7,9,14},
{} set
elements B = {9,14,28}

| such that so that A = {x | x∈ , x<0}

objects that belong

A⋂B intersection A ⋂ B = {9,14}
to set A and set B

objects that belong

A⋃B union A ⋃ B = {3,7,9,14,28}
to set A or set B

A is a subset of B.
A⊆B subset set A is included in {9,14,28} ⊆ {9,14,28}
set B.

A is a subset of B,
proper subset / strict
A⊂B but A is not equal to {9,14} ⊂ {9,14,28}
subset
B.

set A is not a subset

A⊄B not subset {9,66} ⊄ {9,14,28}
of set B

A is a superset of B.
A⊇B superset {9,14,28} ⊇ {9,14,28}
set A includes set B

A is a superset of B,
proper superset /
A⊃B but B is not equal to {9,14,28} ⊃ {9,14}
strict superset
A.

set A is not a
A⊅B not superset {9,14,28} ⊅ {9,66}
superset of set B

2A power set all subsets of A  

power set all subsets of A  

P(A) power set all subsets of A  

ℙ(A) power set all subsets of A  

A={3,9,14},
both sets have the
A=B equality B={3,9,14},
same members
A=B

Ac complement all the objects that  

do not belong to set
 Meaning /
Symbol Symbol Name Example
definition

all the objects that

A' complement do not belong to set  
A

A = {3,9,14},
objects that belong
A\B relative complement B = {1,2,3},
to A and not to B
A \ B = {9,14}

A = {3,9,14},
objects that belong
A-B relative complement B = {1,2,3},
to A and not to B
A - B = {9,14}

objects that belong A = {3,9,14},

A∆B symmetric difference to A or B but not to B = {1,2,3},
their intersection A ∆ B = {1,2,9,14}

objects that belong A = {3,9,14},

A⊖B symmetric difference to A or B but not to B = {1,2,3},
their intersection A ⊖ B = {1,2,9,14}

element of,
a∈A set membership A={3,9,14}, 3 ∈ A
belongs to

x∉A not element of no set membership A={3,9,14}, 1 ∉ A

collection of 2
(a,b) ordered pair  
elements

set of all ordered

A×B cartesian product A×B = {(a,b)|a∈A , b∈B}
pairs from A and B

the number of
|A| cardinality A={3,9,14}, |A|=3
elements of set A

the number of
#A cardinality A={3,9,14}, #A=3
elements of set A

| vertical bar such that A={x|3<x<14}

infinite cardinality of
ℵ0 aleph-null  
natural numbers set

ℵ1 aleph-one cardinality of  
countable ordinal
 Meaning /
Symbol Symbol Name Example
definition

numbers set

Ø empty set Ø = {} A=Ø

set of all possible

universal set  
values

natural numbers /
ℕ0 whole numbers  set 0  = {0,1,2,3,4,...} 0 ∈  0

(with zero)

natural numbers /
ℕ1 whole numbers  set 1  = {1,2,3,4,5,...} 6 ∈  1

(without zero)

 = {...-3,-2,-
ℤ integer numbers set -6 ∈ 
1,0,1,2,3,...}

 = {x | x=a/b, a,b∈
ℚ rational numbers set 2/6 ∈ 
 and b≠0}

ℝ real numbers set  = {x | -∞ < x <∞} 6.343434 ∈ 

complex numbers  = {z | z=a+bi,

ℂ 6+2i ∈ 
set -∞<a<∞,      -∞<b<∞}

What is Experimental Probability?

In experimental probability, we just try to get an estimate of something happening

based on data and experience that we’ve had in the past.
Experimental probability, also known as Empirical probability,  is based on actual
experiments and adequate recordings of the happening of events.  
Probability of an Event P(E) = Number of times an event occurs / Total number
of trials.

What is Theoretical Probability?

In probability, the theoretical probability is used to find the probability of an event.
Theoretical probability does not require any experiments to conduct. Instead of that,
we should know about the situation to find the probability of an event occurring.
Mathematically, the theoretical probability is described as the number of favourable
outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes.
Probability of Event P(E) = No. of. Favourable outcomes/ No. of. Possible
outcomes.

Simulation – In simple language, when we repeat the process in experimental

probability – it’s called simulation.

Conclusion –

 The high no of simulation we have, there is more chance that experimental

probability is equal to theoretical probability.
 Results from an experiment don't always match the theoretical results, but
they should be close after a large number of trials.
 Results from an experiment don't always match the theoretical results, but
they should be close after a large number of trials.

Problem : Doing a simulation

A cereal company is giving away a prize in each box of cereal and they advertise,
"Collect all 6 prizes!" Each box of cereal has 1 prize, and each prize is equally likely
to appear in any given box. Caroline wonders how many boxes it takes, on average,
to get all 6 prizes.
She decides to do a simulation using random digits as follows:

 Start at the left of Line  of the random digits provided below.

 Look at single digit numbers.
 The digits 1-6  represent the different prizes.
 She ignores the digits 0,7,8,9
 One trial of the simulation is done when all 6 digits have appeared.
 At the end of the trial, she counts how many digits it took for every digit 1-6 to
appear (ignoring the other digits).
Line of random digit: 11169, 15529 33241 83594 01727 86595 65723 82322

How many boxes of cereal did it take to get all 6 prizes?

Explanation-

 The first time a prize appears, the digit is highlighted in green.

  If a prize gets won again, the repeated digit is highlighted in \
red.
 Ignored digits are left black.

11169, 15529 3324

1116 1552 3324

There were 12 numbers in the trial.

It took 12 boxes to get all 6 prizes
Next Example -
Caroline did some more trials of her simulation. Each trial, she recorded how many
boxes it took to get all 6 prizes. Her results are shown in the table below.

Trial
# Number of boxes
111 12
222 17
333 15
444 7
555 20
On average, how many boxes of cereal did it take Caroline to get all 6 prizes?
If necessary, round your answer to the nearest tenth.

Ans is 14.2 (average of all trials).

Simulations give us better estimates after more and more trials. Suppose, Grant
(friend of Caroline) did more trials than Caroline did, so his results are probably more
accurate.

Sample Space – This is set of all the possible outcomes like in case of fair coin flip ,
the sample space is –{Head, tail}. The outcomes must be mutually exclusive and
exhaustive. Mutually exclusive means they are distinct and non-overlapping.
Exhaustive means complete. But this is the simple example but we have the
complex problems and there are three ways in which we can define the sample
spaces –
 1. Tree Diagram
2. Grid (or we can say matrix)
3. Construct a Table
Suppose we have one bakery and we have following favours and sizes-

Flavour Size
Chocolate Small
Strawberr Medium
y
Vanilla Large

Now we want to know the all-possible outcome of this problem (i.e., sample space).
This can be done in three ways-
1. Tree Diagram

2. Grid (or we can say matrix)

Chocolate Strawberry Vanilla

Small Small Chocolate Small Strawberry Small Vanilla
Mediu Medium Medium Strawberry Medium Vanilla
m Chocolate
Large Large Chocolate Large Strawberry Large Vanilla

3. Construct a Table-

Flavour Size
Chocolate Small
Chocolate Medium
Chocolate Large
Strawberr Small
y
Strawberr Medium
y
Strawberr Large
y
 Vanilla Small
Vanilla Medium
Vanilla Large

Probability of a Compound Event – Suppose you have one lucky draw and
you can get one of the following three places for vacation-

Island or Ski or camping

The trip would be of either 1,2 or 3 days. We want to know the probability of at
least 2 days’ vacation without snow. Now we have to know the sample space.
We are using grid method here-

1day 2days 3days

Island(I) 1I 2I 3I
Ski(S) 1S 2S 3S
Camping(C ) 1C 2C 3C

Now ski involves snow so this is out of the question for our analysis. We want two
days so above 4 option in red font is the possible outcomes in our case. P = 4/9.
Independent Events
Example - Free-throw probability
Suppose the probability of free throw is 75%. Now if we miss the free throw that means we are out of the game. Here if anyone
wants probability of free throws for 10 times means – for second free throw chance is 75% of probability of first chance which
means 75% *75%. If this is 10 times then we have to take .75 power 10.
P(n no of free throws ) = (P of free throw)^n
Example - Rolling Dice –
Suppose that we are going to roll two fair 666-sided dice. Find the probability that both dice show a 3.

Since the results of the dice are independent, we can multiply the probability of rolling a 3 on each die.

P(both3) = P (3 and 3) = 1/6*1/6 = 1/36

 CONCEPT OF ‘AT LEAST ONE’ IN PROBABILITY
Sometimes we want to know the probability of AT LEAST ONE PROBAILITY of one outcome like at least one head for 10
flips of a fair coin.

*fair coin means the chances of head and tails are equal. In an unfair coin chances of head and tail are different.
Generalizing the strategy
In general, we can use these strategies:
P(at least 1 success)=1−P(all failures)
or similarly,
P(at least 1 failure)=1−P(all successes)

At least one" probability with coin flipping

Suppose we want to know the probability of at least 1 head for 10 flips then -
Probability of at least one head in 10 flips = 1-P (10 tails in a row) = P (not all tails in 10 flips) =
1-(1/2)^10 = 1023/1024
Example : Defective chips

A manufacturer of processing chips knows that 2 percent of its chips are defective in some way.
Suppose an inspector randomly selects 4 chips for an inspection.
Assuming the chips are independent, what is the probability that at least one of the selected chips is defective?
Ans = 1-P(all 4 NOT defective) =1-(.98^4) = 0.078
Dependent Events
Example – Strange Casino Game
Suppose we have one game in a strange casino wherein we have one bag having 3 green and 2 orange balls. Customer has to
pick two balls from bag and if picks 2 green balls , he will get $1 . The cost of game is 0.35 cents. Please note that the customer will
put the picked ball down on the table. Now what is the probability of picking 2 green balls by the customer?
Imp point in this example–

 Customer will only win when there both the balls are green which means probability of picking second ball is dependent on
first event (i.e., first ball should be green).
 Customer will pick first ball from 5 balls but he would be left with total 4 balls at the time of picking second ball because he
has to put the first ball down on the table.
 In the below diagram we have use Ո (means ‘and’ or ‘intersection’) and ‘|’(means ‘given this’).
Example2
 Category Definition Example

Contain all counting numbers

Natural All numbers such as 1, 2, 3,
which start from 1.
Numbers 4,5,6,…..…
N = {1,2,3,4,……}

Collection of zero and natural

Whole All numbers including 0 such
number.
Numbers as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,5,6,…..…
W = {0,1,2,3,…..}

The collective result of whole Includes: -infinity (-∞),……..-

Integers numbers and negative of all 4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ……
natural numbers. +infinity (+∞)

Rational Numbers that can be written in Examples of rational numbers

Numbers the form of p/q, where q≠0. are ½, 5/4 and 12/6 etc.

All the numbers which are not Irrational numbers are non-
Irrational
rational and cannot be written in terminating and non-repeating
Numbers
the form of p/q. in nature like √2

Note – real number is denoted by ‘R’, rational numbers by ’Q’ and integers by ‘Z’.