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IGCSE
STATS &
PROBABILITY
© Dr T J Price, 2011
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Q: Three fair coins are tossed. List all the possible outcomes.
Hence find the probability of getting three tails.
A: HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT
There are 8 possible outcomes (spot the pattern...)
So the probability of getting TTT is 1/8.
A: 1 2 3 4
1 . . . .
2 . . . x
3 . . x .
4 . x . .
There are 16 possible outcomes (4 × 4), of which the 3 marked ones add up to 6.
So the probability of getting a total of 6 is 3/16.
The expected number or expected frequency is the number of times you would
expect an event to happen.
Simply multiply the probability by the number of trials.
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TJP TOP TIP: Remember MAAD for tree diagrams: Multiply Across, Add Down.
This refers to how to combine the probabilities marked on the branches.
Second roll
1/6 6
5/6
Not 6
5/6 Not 6
1 1 1
b) i) P(two sixes) = × =
6 6 36
1 5 5 1 5 5 10 5
ii) P(exactly one six) = × + × = + = =
6 6 6 6 36 36 36 18
[This could be '6' followed by 'not 6', or 'not 6' followed by '6'.]
Note: Tree diagrams can have three or more branches at each stage, and three or
more stages. But if you end up drawing hundreds of branches, there's probably an
easier way...
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2/4 S
S
3/5
2/4 W
3/4 S
2/5
W
1/4 W
[The top right probability is 2/4 because if we remove a stoat, there are now only
2 stoats left out of 4 animals still in the bag.]
3 2 2 3 6 6 12 3
b) P(1 stoat and 1 weasel) = × × = = =
5 4 5 4 20 20 20 5
[Note: this could be Stoat then Weasel, or Weasel then Stoat.]
3 2 6 14 7
c) P(at least one weasel) = 1 – P(no weasels) = 1 − × = 1 − = =
5 4 20 20 10
TJP TOP TIP: If it's a 'one of each' question, remember that there is more than
one way to get this on your tree diagram. For example, 'A then B' or 'B then A'.
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SKILL: Find the mean, median, quartiles, mode and range from a list of data.
Q: Find the quartiles and median of 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 16, 19.
A: The median is the middle number, 10.
The lower quartile is the median of the bottom half 4, 5, 6, 8 which is 5.5.
The upper quartile is the median of the top half 13, 15, 16, 19 which is 15.5.
The interquartile range = 15.5 – 5.5 = 10.
[Note: don't include the middle number 10 in the bottom or top half of the list.]
Q: Find the mean, median, quartiles, mode and range of 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11.
A: Mean = (1+3+3+3+4+5+6+7+10+11) ÷ 10 = 5.3
Median = (4+5) ÷ 2 = 4.5
Lower Quartile = 3
Upper Quartile = 7
Interquartile Range = 7 – 3 = 4
Mode = 3
Range = 11 – 1 = 10
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SKILL: Find the mean, median, mode and range from a table.
Q: Find the mean, median, mode and range of the following data.
length frequency
1 3
2 2
3 6
4 5
5 4
TJP TOP TIP: To find the position of the median, do the mean of the first and last
positions. So in a list of 123 items, the median is at position (1 + 123) ÷ 2 = 62.
If this position is 'X and a half', the two middle numbers are at X and X+1.
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SKILL: Find the mean, median class, modal class and range from a grouped table.
Q: Find the mean, median class, modal class and range of the following grouped data.
A: Add two columns to the table, for the midpoint of the class and for freq × midpoint.
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SKILL: Plot a cumulative frequency curve and find the median and quartiles.
Q: Plot a cumulative frequency curve from this table and find the median and quartiles.
Value x Frequency f
0-20 12
20-30 20
30-60 15
60-100 25
We now plot points at (0, 0) (20, 12) (30, 32) (60, 47) (100, 72)
and draw a smooth curve through these points to give that classic S-shaped curve.
Cumulative 72
frequency
54
36
18
0
LQ Median UQ x
Then we can read off the Median and the Upper and Lower Quartiles off the x-axis.
(No actual numbers here this time, but there will be in the exam.)
The Interquartile Range = Upper Quartile – Lower Quartile.
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TJP TOP TIP: Two utterly essentially vitally important facts for histograms:
● Always plot frequency density (= frequency ÷ width).
Hint: think alphabetically... frequency comes before width.
● The frequency is given by the area of each bar, not the height.
Value x Frequency f
0-20 12
20-30 20
30-60 15
60-100 25
Freq density
0
0 20 30 60 100 x
TJP TOP TIP: Sometimes they give us a bar that is already drawn on the histogram
as well as featuring in the table. Use this known bar to label the y-axis correctly.
To read values off the histogram, remember that the area of a bar gives the frequency.
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Page Topic
2 Statistics and Probability Words
3-4 Probability
5 Simple Tree Diagrams
6 Tree Diagrams for Conditional Probability
7 Mean, Median, Quartiles, Mode and Range from a List
8 Mean, Median, Mode and Range from a Table
9 Mean, Median Class, Modal Class and Range from a Grouped Table
10 Cumulative Frequency
11 Histograms
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