LICENSURE EXAMINATION FOR TEACHERS

PROBABILITY

Counting Techniques

Terminologies:
An experiment is a situation involving chance or probability that leads to results called outcomes. (e.g. tossing
a coin, throwing 2 dice or rolling a die)

An outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment (e.g. possible outcome is a head or a tail appears).

An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment (e.g. pair of numbers that are the same).

The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment.
Example: In tossing a coin, S = {H, T}. In rolling a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

The sample point is an element of the sample space. Example: In rolling a die, there are 6 sample points.

Success - the event under consideration occurs.

Failure - the event under consideration does not occur.

Factorial Notation

n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2)….(3)(2)(1) e.g. 5! = 5 ×4 × 3 × 2 × 1

0! = 1 by definition

Counting Sample Points

1. Fundamental Principle of Counting. If a choice consists of k steps, of which the first can be performed
by n1 ways, for each of these the second can be performed by n 2 ways, for each of these the third can be
performed by n3 ways, and so on, until the k th can be performed in nk ways, then the whole choice can be
made in n1·n2 ·n3…nk ways.

Example: A deli has a lunch special which consists of a sandwich, soup, dessert and drink for P238.
They offer the following choices:
Sandwich: chicken salad, ham, tuna, and roast beef
Soup: tomato, chicken noodle, vegetable
Dessert: cookie and pie
Drink: tea, coffee, coke, diet coke and sprite
How many lunch specials are there? Solution: 4 · 3 · 2 · 5 = 120 ways (lunch specials)

2. Permutation. It is an arrangement of objects in which the order is taken into consideration.

Linear Permutation
a. If n objects are to be arranged all at a time, then the number of distinct arrangements is given by the
formula n! = (n – 1)(n – 2)(n – 3) ··· 3 ·2 · 1.
Example 1: In how many ways can 6 people be lined up in a straight line.
Solution: 6! = 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 720 ways.

b. If n objects are to be arranged in r objects at a time, then the number of distinct arrangements is
 nPr =

Example 2: In a qualifying race for an Olympic road cycling event, 15 men competed for 5 slots.
How many different ways could the top 5 slots be arranged if the order in which the men finished
mattered?

Solution: 15P5 = = = = 15·14·13·12·11 = 360,360

ways

Permutations with Repetitions.

a. The number of different permutations of n objects, where there are n1 indistinguishable objects of the
first kind, n2 indistinguishable objects of the 2nd kind, ..., and nk indistinguishable objects of the kth kind is

Pn = , where n = n1 + n2 + n3 +… + nk.

Example 3: How many different six-digit numerals can be written using all of the following six
digits: 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 7.

Solution: = = = = 60 different 6-digit numerals

b. When you have n things to choose from ... you have n choices each time!
When choosing r of them, the permutations are: n × n × ... (r times)
(In other words, there are n possibilities for the first choice, THEN there are n possibilities for the
second choice, and so on, multplying each time.) Which is easier to write down using an exponent of r:
r
n × n × ... (r times) = n , where n is the number of things to choose from, and
you choose r of them (Repetition allowed, order matters).

Example 4: In a lock, there are 10 numbers to choose from (0 to 9) and you choose 3 of them.
How many arrangements will there be?
Solution: (10)3 = 10 ·10 · 10 = 1,000

Circular Permutation.
Circular permutation is the number of ordered arrangements that can be made of n objects in a circular
manner is given by (n – 1)!.

Example 4: In how many ways can 5 students be arranged in a round table?

Solution: (5 – 1)! = 4! = 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 24 arrangements.

3. Combination.
Combination is the arrangement of objects into specified number of groups without regard to order. Thus,
the order of arrangements should not be taken into consideration. So, if n objects are to be arranged r at a
time, the number of distinct combinations is given by the formula

nCr =

Example 5: From a squad of 16 members, find the total number of different arrangements of 9
players.

Solution: 16C9 = = = = 11,440 groups

(w/ 9 players each)
Concept of Probability

Probability is the measure of how likely an event is. It is the likelihood of occurrence of an event.

Priori Probability.

"A priori" means reasoning from cause to effect; e.g. since it is raining outside, the street must be wet. A
priori probability is based on the knowledge of the likelihood of successes of different events to predict the
probability of the success of any given event.

Probability of an Event E: P(E) =

If E is any event that occurs, then the probability of that event denoted by P(E) has a value between 0 and
1, inclusively. That is, 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

If event E is an event that occurs surely, then P(E) = 1, but if it is impossible to happen then P(E) = 0.
Moreover, if event E’ will not happen, then P(E) + P(E’) = 1.

Example 1. A standard deck has four suits: spades (), hearts (), diamonds (), and clubs ().
It has thirteen cards in each suit: ace, 2, 3, . . ., 10, jack, queen, and king. Each of these cards is
equally likely to be drawn. What is the probability of getting (a) an ace?, (b) a diamond?
Solutions:

(a) Event A = an ace : P(A) = = (b) Event D = a diamond: P(D) = =

Example 2. A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. What is the
probability of landing on a sector that is not red after spinning this spinner?

Sample Space: {yellow, blue, green, red}

P (not red) = 1 – P(Red) = 1 – =

Experimental Probability

The experimental probability of an event is the proportion of success (or relative frequency) when the
number of trials approaches infinitive. e.g. If we flip a coin for 100 times, and in 51 times head turns up,
relative frequency = No. of times head turns up/No. of trials = 51/100 = 0.51

Assume the coin is balanced, when the number of trials approaches infinity, the relative frequency will
approach 0.5, and the experimental probability = 0.5.
Addition Rule

Mutually Exclusive

If either event A or event B or both events occur on a single performance of an experiment this is
called the union of the events A and B denoted as P( A or B) = P(A  B). If two events are mutually
exclusive then the probability of either occurring is P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B).

For example, the chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is P(1  2) = P(1) + P(2) = +

= or .
Not mutually Exclusive

If the events are not mutually exclusive then P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B).

For example, when drawing a single card at random from a regular deck of cards, the chance of

getting a heart or a face card (J,Q,K) (or one that is both) is + – = or ,

because of the 52 cards of a deck 13 are hearts, 12 are face cards, and 3 are both: here the
possibilities included in the "3 that are both" are included in each of the "13 hearts" and the "12
face cards" but should only be counted once.

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of some event A, given the occurrence of some other event B.
Conditional probability is written P(AB) , and is read "the probability of A, given B". P(AB) =

.
For example, in a bag of 2 red balls and 2 blue balls (4 balls in total), the probability of taking a red ball
is 1/2; however, when taking a second ball, the probability of it being either a red ball or a blue ball depends
on the ball previously taken, such as, if a red ball was taken, the probability of picking a red ball again
would be 1/3 since only 1 red and 2 blue balls would have been remaining.

P(AB) represents the conditional probability of event A to occur, given that event B has already occurred.

P(AB) = , when P(B) ≠ 0.

Example 2.
Social Workers Non Social Workers Total
Good Guy 80 60 140
Bad Guy 20 40 60
Total 100 100 200

The probability of selecting a social worker = .

The probability of selecting a good guy = .

If we have already selected a social worker, the probability that he is a good guy becomes .
Applying the above formula, we will have the same result:
 P(A and B) = P(A  B) = , where "A" is a good guy and "B" is a social worker.

P(B) = . Thus P(AB) = = / = .

Multiplication Rule

P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(B)  P(AB) or P(A)  P(BA)

Independent Probability

Two events of an experiment are independent if the probability of occurrence of one event does not depend
on the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other event. In symbols P(AB) = P(A).

If two events, A and B are independent then the joint probability is P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B).

For example, if we flip a balanced coin 4 times, what is the probability of obtaining heads in all 4 times?
4
Assuming that each flipping is independent of the previous flipping, then P(heads all 4 times) = P(head) =
4
(p) = 1/16.

For example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is x =