Probability and Statistics

Engr. Alfredrick V. Gayoma, ECT

October 2018
Fundamental Principle of Counting
This principle states that if there are r ways to do one thing, and s ways
to do another, and t ways to do a third thing and so on, then the
number of ways of doing all those things at once is

r*s*t*….
Permutations
A permutation, also called an “arrangement number” or “order,” is a
rearrangement of the elements of an ordered list S into a one-to-one
correspondence with S itself.

In combinatorics, permutations refer to the rearrangement of the

elements in a given set. Here we are concerned about the number of
possible arrangements a given set has. When dealing with problems,
take note of these keywords, usually problems having these words ask
for permutations:
Permutations of ‘n’ objects taken ‘r’ at a time

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
Circular and Ring Permutation
Arranged in a circle: (n-1)!
Arranged in a bead/ring: (n-1)!/2
Combinations
Suppose we have a collection of n objects. A combination of these n
object taken r at a time, or an r-combination, is any subset of r
elements. In other words, an r-combination is any selection of r of the
n objects where order does not count.
Combination of n objects taken r at a time

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
How to Differentiate Permutations from
Combinations?
1. Find keywords such as arrange, order, ranking, arrangement etc.,
these signify that the problem is about Permutations.
2. Keywords such as select, choose, in random, order is not important
etc. denotes Combinations
3. Analyze the problem. Problems dealing with groups of people often
times ask for combinations. Otherwise, the words like ‘order is
important’ are added.
Problem #1
How many 3-digit multiples of 5 can you form using the digits 1, 3, 5, 8
and 9 without repetition?

a. 12
b. 24
c. 48
d. 96
Problem #2
How many distinct permutations do the word ENGINEERING has?

a. 277200
b. 227700
c. 272700
d. 2072700
Problem #3
Eight people attend a party. During the party everyone shakes hands
with everyone else. How many handshakes take place at the party?

a. 8
b. 16
c. 64
d. 28
Problem #4
My school’s ECE club has 6 boys and 8 girls. I need to select a team to
send to the IECEP competition. We want 6 people on the team. In how
many ways can I select the team to have more girls than boys?

a. 1414
b. 4141
c. 2820
d. 2828
Venn Diagram
A Venn diagram or set diagram is a diagram that shows all possible
logical relations between a finite collection of sets.

1. Union
2. Intersection
3. Complements
4. Universal Set
5. Null Set
6. Disjoint Set
Problem #5
In a group, 155 drink vodka, 173 drink beer, 153 drink whisky, 53 drink
beer and vodka, 79 drink beer and whisky, 66 drink vodka and whisky,
21 of them drink beer, vodka, and whisky. If 2 customers do not prefer
any drink, how many are there in the group.

a. 303
b. 304
c. 305
d. 306
Probability
Probability is the study of random or nondeterministic experiment. It is
basically the ratio of the success/desired outcome, called the event and
the total possible outcome, called the sample space.

𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 (𝐸)
𝑃=
𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 (𝑆)
Probability Operations
1. P(S) = 1
2. 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
3. P 𝐸 𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)
4. 𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
5. 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐴
Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually Exclusive event are events that cannot happen on the same
time.

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 0
Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one
affects the probability of the other events. As for independent events,
the probability of the other events.
If two or more events are said to be dependent, the probability for
them to happen at the same tie is obtained by multiplying their
individual probabilities.

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)
Problem #6
A bag has 4 red marbles, 5 white marbles, and 6 blue marbles. Three
marbles are drawn from the bag (without replacement). What is the
probability that are all of the same color?

a. 34/455
b. 32/455
c. 33/455
d. 31/455
Problem #7
An envelope contains eight bills: 2 ones, 2 fives, 2 tens, and 2 twenties.
Two bills are drawn at random without replacement. What is the
probability that their sum is $20 or more?

a. ¼
b. 1/3
c. ½
d. 1/8
Problem #8
Argie tries to solve a really hard problem once each day. She has a ¼
probability of solving it each day. What is the probability that she will
sole it before her sixth try?

a. 781/1024
b. 178/1023
c. 32/455
d. 1/4
Probability Distributions
1. Bernoulli Binomial Distribution
2. Hypergeometric Distribution
3. Poisson’s Distribution
Bernoulli Binomial Distribution
We consider repeated and independent trials of an experiment with two
outcomes; we call one of the outcomes success and the other outcome
failure.
If we are interested in the number of successes and not in the order in
which they occur, then the following theorem applies:

𝑛 𝑛−𝑟
𝑃 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 ∗ 𝑝 ∗ 𝑞 Where n = number of trials/repeated events
r = number of successful events
p and q = probability of success and
failure
 Hypergeometric Distribution
In probability, the hypergeometric distribution is a discrete probability
distribution that describes the number of successes in a sequence of n
draws from a finite population without replacement, just as the
binomial distribution describes the number of successes for draws with
replacement.

(𝑚1 𝐶𝑘1 + 𝑚2 𝐶𝑘2 + 𝑚3 𝐶𝑘3 + … … + 𝑚𝑛 𝐶𝑘𝑛 )

𝑃=
(σ 𝑚𝑛 𝐶 σ 𝑘𝑛 )
Poisson’s Distribution
In probability theory, the Poisson distribution is a discrete probability
distribution that expresses the probability of a number of events
occurring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known
average rate and independently of the time since the last event.
If the expected number of occurrences in this interval is 𝜆, then the
probability that there are exactly k occurrences (k being a non-negative
integer, k= 0, 1, 2….) is equal to
𝜆𝑘 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑃=
𝑘!
Problem #9
A card is drawn and replaced three times from an ordinary deck of 52
cards. Find the probability that two hearts are drawn.

a. 9/64
b. 8/63
c. 35/277
d. 1/4
Problem #10
In a class of 28 students, the teacher selects four people at random to
participate in a geography contest. What is the probability that this
group of four students includes at least two of the top three geography
students in the class? Express your answer as a common fraction.

a. 37/819
b. 23/476
c. 34/911
d. 10/259
Problem #11
Suppose there is an average of 2 suicides per year per 50,000
population. In a city of 100,00 find the probability that in a given year
there are 0 suicides.

a. 0.0183
b. 0.0412
c. 0.0353
d. 0.5112
The Common Dice Problem
Problem # 12
A pair of fair dice is thrown. Find the probability that the sum is 10 or
greater if 5 appears of the first die.

a. 1/3
b. 3/11
c. ¼
d. 4/11
Problem #13
From the previous problem, give the probability if one of the die
happens to appear as 5.

a. 1/3
b. 3/11
c. ¼
d. 4/11
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B is the probability that the
event will occur given the knowledge that an event A has already
occurred.

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃 𝐴
Problem #14
The probability that both stages a two – stage rocket will function
correctly is 0.95. The reliability of the first stage is 0.98. What is the
reliability of the 2nd stage?
a. 0.99
b. 0.98
c. 0.97
d. 0.96
Problem #15
In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the women are taller
than 6 feet, Furthermore, 60% of the students are women. Now if a
student is selected a random and is taller than 6 feet, what is the
probability that the student is a woman?

a. 1/3
b. 3/11
c. ¼
d. 4/11
Statistics
Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis,
interpretation, and presentation of data. It deals with all aspects of this
including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of the
surveys and the experiments.
Measures of Central Tendency
In statistics, the term central tendency relates to the way in which
quantitative data tend to cluster around some value. A measure of
central tendency is any of a number of ways of specifying this “central
value”.
Measures of Central Tendency
1. Arithmetic Mean
2. Median
3. Mode
4. Geometric Mean
5. Harmonic Mean
6. Weighted Mean
Measures of Dispersion
A measure of statistical dispersion is a non-negative real number that is
zero if all the data are the same and increases as the data become
more diverse. It measures how spread the data is.
Measures of Dispersion
1. Range
2. Mid Range
3. Mean Deviation
4. Standard Deviation
5. Variance
Measures of Position
The rank of a data point fives its position when the list is sorted from
least to greatest.

The percentile rank for a data point fives its position relative to the
others in the list. So percentile rank ranges from the 1st percentile to
100th percentile.

Other forms are decile rank and quartile rank

Z-Score
It is a statistical measurement of a score’s relationship to the mean in a
group of scores.

𝑧 = (𝑥𝑠 −𝜇)/𝜎
Question #16
Find the mean deviation for the following set of data: {35,40,45}

a. 10/3
b. 5/3
c. 7/3
d. 10/7
Question #17
Find the quadratic mean of {1.3, 1.5, 1.7, 1.0, 1.1}

a. 1.31
b. 1.32
c. 1.33
d. 1.34
Question #18
Two student A and B were informed that they received standard scores
of 0.6 and -0.8 respectively on the final examination. If their
examination grade were 83 and 62 respectively, find the standard
deviation.

a. 15
b. 13
c. 11
d. 9
Question #19
Suppose that the student IQ scores form a normal distribution with
mean of 100 and standard deviation of 20. Find the percentage of
students whose IQ fall between 80 and 120.

a. 68%
b. 34%
c. 95%
d. 97%
Question #20
Suppose that weights of 800 male students are normally distributed
with mean 140 lbs and standard deviation of 10 lbs. Find the
approximate number of students with weights of more than 152 lbs.

a. 34
b. 92
c. 95
d. 87
Question #21
Suppose that we look, 7 mice and measured their body weight and
their length from nose to tail
Mouse Weight Length
Determine the correlation
1 1 2
Coefficient 2 4 5
a. 0.9014 3 3 8
4 4 12
b. 0.2412
5 8 14
c. 0.5215 6 9 19
d. 0.9115 7 8 22
Question #22
Given S={2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 15, 18, 20, 23, 46}. Calculate the 50th percentile

a. 11
b. 15
c. 13
d. 18
Question #23
Given S={2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 15,20, 23, 46}. Calculate the 25th percentile.

a. 25
b. 5
c. 3
d. 8
How to compute your GWA
Question # 24
A student receive his grades a follows
Calculate the students GWA Subject Grade Units
Algebra 1.5 5
English 1.75 3
a. 1.6 Philosophy 1.25 2

b. 1.7 Chemistry 2.5 4

Drawing 1.0 2
c. 1.75
d. 1.65