Alpha

Beta

1-

0.648868 0.351132
Month

Yt
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15

Y't
100
98
93
94
95
88
89
91
92
94
95
98
91
89
90
88
87
83
84
88
90
90
91
92
99
97
97
92
89
91
82
79
88
87
91
83

100
100
98.702264
95.0022473
94.3519211
94.7724388
90.3780199
89.4838669
90.4676372
91.4619384
93.1088054
94.335941
96.7134317
93.0061687
90.406694
90.1428033
88.7524068
87.6153261
84.6205887
84.2179085
86.6719867
88.831428
89.589677
90.5047905
91.4749841
96.3577261
96.7744771
96.9208117
93.7278544
90.660101
90.8806506
85.1182806
81.1483241
85.5941574
86.5063637
89.4221405

S''t

100
100
97.95211
92.89114
94.05391
95.02652
87.82845
89.06109
91.05191
92.01513
94.04036
95.01091
98.06283
90.81339
88.98499
90.04273
87.95238
86.98756
82.91265
84.04817
88.09683
90.02711
89.98386
91.01922
92.01682
99.1602
96.91196
97.00033
91.87923
88.95501
91.07106
81.78032
78.97668
88.24421
86.93587
91.09175

Bt

0.0369041892
Forecasted Sales

0.00
0.00
-2.05
-5.06
1.16
0.97
-7.20
1.23
1.99
0.96
2.03
0.97
3.05
-7.25
-1.83
1.06
-2.09
-0.96
-4.07
1.14
4.05
1.93
-0.04
1.04
1.00
7.14
-2.25
0.09
-5.12
-2.92
2.12
-9.29
-2.80
9.27
-1.31
4.16

100
100
97.4045279871
92.0523865794
95.8127044406
95.4909685066
85.729523136
91.1392827966
91.8741825297
91.8719693328
94.2024788471
94.6315209615
98.4159551904
87.9495070868
90.0000000035
91.3006152677
87.4620854745
87.2782704552
82.2536161013
85.5231682797
89.2958037937
89.5660262271
89.1522442346
91.0257240339
91.9307435508
100.6986328428
94.3887565506
96.9296664674
90.4553820924
89.440969875
92.8062921931
79.1654968951
80.5163308006
92.2116379002
84.7685145727
91.9084149122

Avg Forecating Acc

RMS
96% 24.98876

Forecasting Accuracy

RMS

Complan Sales
95%
98%
99%
91%
96%
100%
100%
98%
99%
97%
92%
99%
100%
96%
99%
95%
98%
97%
99%
100%
98%
99%
93%
96%
97%
95%
98%
98%
87%
100%
91%
94%
93%
89%

19.39987
3.793198
0.660489
56.11461
10.69602
0.0194
0.01583
4.528515
0.63604
11.34665
54.99639
1.103535
1.20E-017
10.89406
0.213523
18.3036
3.049857
6.134695
0.495892
0.188333
3.414201
0.949214
49.97439
13.67988
6.818592
24.30161
2.118137
2.430575
116.776
0.027389
56.0053
27.16117
38.83141
79.35986
624.4382

an Sales