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Moon Effects
Moon Effects
Assistant Professor, The School of Management, Sumandeepvidyapeeth (Deemed University), Vadodara, Gujarat, India
2
Associate Professor, Department of Business & Industrial Management, Veer Narmad South Gujarat University,
Surat, Gujarat, India
ABSTRACT
The research paper has its place to the area of Financial Astrology, an uncharted method of security analysis.
Stock market always remains an attractive and challenging investment avenue amongst the investors fraternity. An Indian
stock market has witnessed marvelous growth and development in the last decade. Investors are mainly adopting
fundamental analysis and/or technical analysis as an approach of security analysis in managing their investment in stock
market. However, both the approaches fail to determine proper timing of entry and exit from trade so that maximum profits
are earned or loss is minimized. So, financial astrology, which deals with prediction of prices of stocks/index based on
planetary positions, answers on this issue.
The present study investigates the relationship between movement of BSE SENSEX and movement of Moon into
different signs into zodiac as per Indian Vedic Astrology. This study is based on historical data analysis from January 1993
to December 2010. This research paper is an attempt to find out Significant Bullish and Bearish effect of conjunction
between Moon with 12 different zodiac signs. The findings of the study may be helpful in taking buying or selling position
in different trend of stock market based on financial astrology. It also gives new dimension of researches on lunar effect on
stock returns.
KEYWORDS: Financial Astrology, Security Analysis, Stock Market Astrology, Financial Anomalies, Lunar Effect
INTRODUCTION
Investment plays an important role in any growth and development of economy. It is also considered as lifeblood
for economic system while financial market is considered as blood-vessel for economic system as it facilitates
transformation of saving into investment, which later on gets converted to production and consumption. Any organized and
efficient financial market provides different alternatives for prospective investors to invest their saving in monetary form.
These alternatives of investment are classified into following two categories viz. Risk free investment alternatives &Risky
investment alternatives.Investment in equity shares of different company through stock exchanges, commonlyrecognized
as investment in stock market is a prominent and widely acceptable alternative in category of risky investment. Since,
investment in share market is a part of risky investment alternatives, investors have to follow the scientific approach of
security analysis which is part of investment management process. Therefore, prediction of share prices for future time
frame with expected risk and returnis the key to trade in stock market. However, predictions about investment decisions in
stock market are always challenging as stock prices are fluctuating every second and there are many factors which
influence these fluctuations. Therefore, share price prediction always remains as an area of interest amongst investors and
researchers. There are different approaches of security analysis for prediction. In real life situation, fundamental analysis
and technical analysis are two popular approaches to prediction of share prices. The fundamental analysis mainly answers
202
as to which stocks should be bought or sold for long period of time. It is based on fundamental factors related with
economy, industry and company affecting share price movement. Technical analysis mainlydeals with the price at which
one should enter into the trade and exit the trade with stop loss based on statistical analysis of historical data of share price
and its charting pattern. But principles of both the theories fail to determine proper timing of entry and exit from trade so
that maximum profits are earned or loss is minimized. However, financial astrology answers this issue.
203
Moon and Market: an Empirical Study on Effect of Movement of Moon on BSE Sensex
Sr. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Name of Planet
Sun
Moon
Mars
Mercury
Jupiter
Venus
Saturn
Sr. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
The research design for the present study is of exploratory type. In this study, an attempt is made to explore new
knowledge in a comparative highly uncharted area of financial astrology.
Objectives
To study the effect of transit of moon in different zodiac signs as per Vedic Astrology on overall price movement
of Indian Equity Market.
Hypothesis of Research
H0 (I)
H0 (II)
204
Data Collection
The data collected for this research are secondary in nature. For this research work, historical data of price
movement in Indian equity market were collected from ACE Data Base & Software of Technical Analysis, developed by
Spider Software Ltd, Mumbai. The historical data of transit of moon into different zodiac signs as per Vedic astrology from
January 1993 to December 2010 (18 Years) have been used which were collected from Panchang Hindu Vedic
Calendar, published by Prophet 2006 - A complete Indian Vedic Astrology Software.
Sampling
The population for the present study is closing price of all listed companies available for trading in stock market
belonging to different sectors from its listing date. However, the over all movement of different sectors in can be
represented by equity index. Therefore, Closing price of BSE SENSEX from January 1993 to December 2010 is taken as
sample which represents Indian equity market. For the present research, Judgmental or Purposive sampling method is used.
Reliability and Validity of Data
Reliability of the collected data was established by cross verifying to its other sources. Panchang Data collected
through Astro-Prophet software were verified with SandeshPanchnag & historical data about price movement collected
through Spider ACE software were verified with official website of Bombay Stock Exchange (www.bseindia.com).The
data collected as a sample were validated on the ground that BSE SENSEX is the oldest and benchmarked representative
index of Indian Equity Market.
DATA ANALYSIS
The data for the present research was collected from the published sources and hence secondary in nature. The
period covered is from January 1993 to December 2010. The data pertains to following two categories.
Daily prices of BSE SENSEX and representative companies of eight sectors as recorded on the Bombay Stock
Exchange
The collected data were tested for its reliability and validity and were found to be satisfactory.
The collected data of above mentioned two sets then were compiled by organizing them in the chronological order
st
from 1 January 1993 to 31st December 2010 and presented in single table. The daily price fluctuation/movement or daily
return in prices was calculated considering the percentage change in the closing stock prices.
A total of 108 combinations (i.e. pairs of moon as a single planet and pairs of moon with another one of the
planets with different zodiac sign) were structured and then the stock prices are plotted against these combinations for
eighteen years under study. Out these 108 combinations 101 combinations met statistical data sufficiency condition to draw
meaningful interference. The combinations were then segregated as per their occurrences during eighteen years.
To ascertain whether to use parametric or non-parametric tests for hypothesis testing, the normality check is done
by using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (KS Test). It was found that all the data are normally distributed.
To established relationship between position of moon as single planet and its pair with another one planet with
zodiac signs, we should first test strike rate (i.e. percentage of profitable trade) based on daily close and Average Gain to
Average Loss Ratio of strike rate.
Moon and Market: an Empirical Study on Effect of Movement of Moon on BSE Sensex
205
The ratio of positive to negative days based on daily closing price was calculated and daily Average Gain to
Average Loss ratio was worked out. The chi-square test is applied to find out whether a particular planetary combination is
significantly associated with daily price movements of the stocks. Based on outcome of these calculations the final
conclusions are drawn as to whether planetary positions have significant effect on stock prices or not.
Those combinations in which P Value is less that 0.05 are indicating that H0 (I) is rejected and hence there is
significant association between transit of moon and price movement. Two sampled independent T - Test is used on
Average Gain to Average Loss ratio. Those combinations in which P Value is less that 0.05 are indicating that H0 (II) is
rejected and hence there is significant difference exists between average daily positive return and average daily negative
return.
The Table in annexure no. 1 shows the summary of data analysis discussed above.
FINDINGS
The findings of research show that which different conjunctions are significantly related with price movement and
how bullish or bearish impact they have on price movement. The findings also established the intensity of bullishness or
bearishness, ranging between moderate, highly significant and excessively significant. Following parameters are used from
the outcome statistical analysis and its interpretations to decide influence of conjunction of moon with different zodiac
signs during its transit.
To decide the trend, those conjunctions which are giving average positive return are categorized under bullish and
those that are giving average negative return are categorized under bearish.
To decide the different level of intensity of bullish or bearish trend ranging between moderate, highly significant
and excessively significant, following conditions are set:
o
The P Value of T Test &Chi-Square Test must be significant (less than or equal to 0.05), and,
AGAL and Strike Rate must be higher than or equal to 1 and 50% respectively and multiple of
AGAL & Strike rate must be higher than or equal to 90.
The P Value of T Test or Chi Square Testmust be significant (less than or equal to 0.05), and,
AGAL and Strike Rate must be higher than or equal to 1 and 50% respectively and multiple of
AGAL & Strike rate must be higher than or equal to 90.
AGAL and Strike Rate must be higher than or equal to 1 and 50% respectively and multiple of
AGAL & Strike rate must be higher than or equal to 90.
As per the above conditions, following findings are drawn based on statistical outcome of data analysis for BSE
SENSEX as an representative of Indian Equity Market.
BULLISH
Excessively Significant Bullish
Moon & Mars with Taurus sign
Highly Significant Bullish
Moon & Venus with Sagittarius sign
Moon & Venus with Virgo sign
Moon & Venus with Libra sign
Moon & Saturn with Virgo sign
BEARISH
Excessively Significant Bullish :
None
Highly Significant Bearish
Moon & Mars with Libra sign
206
Moderately Bullish
Moon & Mars with Virgo sign
Moon & Mars with Pisces sign
Moon & Mercury with Cancer sign
Moon & Jupiter with Aquarius sign
Moon & Venus with Sagittarius sign
Moon & Venus with Virgo sign
Moon & Venus with Scorpio sign
Moon &Rahu with Taurus sign
Moon &Ketu with Sagittarius sign
Sun & Moon with Virgo sign
Sun & Moon with Pisces sign
Sun & Moon with Leo sign
Sun & Moon with Scorpio sign
Sun & Moon with Taurus sign
Moderatelybearish
Moon & Mars with Sagittarius sign
Moon & Mars with Capricorn sign
Moon & Mercury with Libra sign
Moon & Mercury with Taurus sign
REFERENCES
Books
1.
Brigham E., Erharadt M. (2011), Financial Management: Text and Cases (1st Edition). New Delhi, India :
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Publishing House
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Pandian, P. (2001), Security Analysis and Portfolio Management (1st Edition). New Delhi, India : Vikas
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Pandey, I. M. (2010), Financial Management (10th Edition). New Delhi, India : Vikas Publishing House
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Shah P. (2009), Financial Management: Indian Text Edition (2nd Edition). New Delhi, India : Biztantra
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Singh, P. (2006), Investment Management: Security Analysis and Portfolio Management (14th Edition). Mumbai,
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Sharma, S. (1999), Share Bazaar kitejiaurMandiaurJyotishSastra (In hindi language) (1st Edition). Jaipur : India :
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Research Papers & Articles
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CHANDY, P.R., Haensly, P. and Shetty, S., Does Full or New Moon Influence Stock Markets?: A
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Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/paper=1024408
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Chaudhri J. C. and Shah P. K. (2012).,Study on effect of conjunction of sun with different zodiac signs on return
BSE
SENSEX.
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Indian
Journal
http://theglobaljournals.com/paripex/file.php?val=ODA=
of
Research
1(2),
137-140.
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at
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Moon and Market: an Empirical Study on Effect of Movement of Moon on BSE Sensex
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Chaudhri J. C. and Shah P. K. (2012).,An empirical study on effect of combination of sun with different zodiac
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ANNEXURE
Table Showing Summary of Statistical Value of Transition of Moon into Zodic Signs
ANNEXURE - I :
STATISTICAL VALUE OF FOR TRANSIT OF MOON INTO ZODIAC SIGNS
Strike
P-Value of Chi- P-Value of
Name of Moon Combinations
AGAL
Rate
Square Test
T- Test
Moon With Sagittarius
53.95
1.02
0.246
0.873
Moon With Virgo
57.07
0.92
0.055
0.538
Moon With Cancer
49.03
1.06
0.81
0.636
Moon With Aquarius
54.14
1.09
0.265
0.479
Moon With Capricorn
52.2
1.04
0.53
0.777
Moon With Aries
48.17
1.24
0.613
0.15
Moon With Pisces
46.91
1.16
0.389
0.33
Moon With Gemini
52.85
1.13
0.428
0.324
Moon With Leo
55.15
1.14
0.186
0.371
Moon With Libra
47
1.19
0.396
0.168
Moon With Scorpio
53.52
0.96
0.304
0.739
Moon With Taurus
56.12
0.98
0.086
0.875
Mars With Sagittarius
54.55
1.05
0.34
0.779
Sun & Moon With Sagittarius
60
0.67
0.655
0.603
208
Table 1:Contd.,
71.43
1.46
63.64
1.13
42.86
1.52
50
1.32
66.67
2.5
57.14
1.47
62.5
1.72
66.67
0.63
66.67
2.82
54.55
1.71
58.33
4.61
66.67
1.39
55.88
1.27
74.07
0.91
64.29
1.65
50
1.23
77.78
1.95
55.56
0.96
60
0.86
52.94
1.78
54.55
1.39
78.95
3.99
57.14
1.38
50
1.08
62.5
1.54
66.67
0.81
58.82
0.8
80
0.67
66.67
0.54
50
4.26
70
0.54
80
1.79
66.67
0.75
53.33
0.9
50
1.04
54.55
3.39
50
1.24
55.56
1.28
37.5
1.73
80
0.79
56.25
1.3
56.25
1.09
50
1.34
90
3.22
85.71
1.43
37.5
2.45
44.44
1.35
42.86
2.24
57.14
0.89
53.85
1.04
50
1.32
55.56
1.08
92.31
6.03
71.43
5.24
46.15
1.72
72.73
1.8
61.54
0.81
48.89
1.08
0.257
0.366
0.705
1
0.414
0.593
0.48
0.414
0.414
0.763
0.564
0.317
0.493
0.012
0.285
1
0.096
0.564
0.317
0.808
0.763
0.012
0.705
1
0.48
0.414
0.467
0.18
0.414
1
0.206
0.058
0.046
0.796
1
0.763
1
0.637
0.221
0.18
0.617
0.48
1
0.011
0.008
0.48
0.739
0.705
0.593
0.695
1
0.637
0.002
0.257
0.782
0.033
0.15
0.881
0.651
0.833
0.731
0.655
0.252
0.613
0.495
0.621
0.294
0.28
0.078
0.589
0.395
0.849
0.15
0.619
0.458
0.933
0.635
0.03
0.256
0.003
0.405
0.904
0.316
0.601
0.627
NPC
0.675
0.38
0.534
0.424
0.048
0.828
0.934
0.386
0.649
0.543
0.095
NPC
0.513
0.784
0.074
NPC
0.32
0.569
0.628
0.472
0.7
0.903
0.643
0.901
NPC
0.121
0.215
0.108
0.511
0.695
Moon and Market: an Empirical Study on Effect of Movement of Moon on BSE Sensex
Table 1:Contd.,
Moon & Saturn With Aries
57.14
0.93
0.593
0.91
Moon & Saturn With Pisces
63.16
1.2
0.251
0.722
Moon & Saturn With Gemini
44.74
1.34
0.516
0.28
Moon & Saturn With Leo
55.56
1.06
0.637
0.889
Moon & Saturn With Taurus
66.67
0.59
0.317
0.03
Moon &Rahu With Sagittarius
56.52
0.95
0.532
0.867
Moon &Rahu With Virgo
56.52
1.32
0.532
0.459
Moon &Rahu With Cancer
59.09
1.14
0.394
0.67
Moon &Rahu With Aquarius
43.48
1.56
0.532
0.392
Moon &Rahu With Capricorn
87.5
0.76
0.003
0.126
Moon &Rahu With Aries
56
1.04
0.549
0.906
Moon &Rahu With Pisces
50
1.55
1
0.356
Moon &Rahu With Gemini
56.25
1.46
0.617
0.45
Moon &Rahu With Leo
53.85
1.43
0.695
0.268
Moon &Rahu With Libra
52
1.04
0.841
0.888
Moon &Rahu With Scorpio
50
1.26
1
0.535
Moon &Rahu With Taurus
73.33
1.36
0.071
0.435
Moon &Ketu With Sagittarius
65.22
1.42
0.144
0.23
Moon &Ketu With Virgo
52.63
1.68
0.819
0.181
Moon &Ketu With Cancer
54.55
1
0.67
0.991
Moon &Ketu With Aquarius
58.82
0.74
0.467
0.603
Moon &Ketu With Capricorn
57.14
1.28
0.45
0.482
Moon &Ketu With Aries
54.55
1.15
0.602
0.515
Moon &Ketu With Gemini
45
1.38
0.655
0.462
Moon &Ketu With Leo
50
1.43
1
0.429
Moon &Ketu With Libra
52
1.04
0.841
0.888
Moon &Ketu With Scorpio
56
0.95
0.549
0.881
Moon &Ketu With Taurus
60
0.79
0.371
0.511
N.A. = Not Applicable, N.P.C. = Not Possible to Calculate||P- Value is Significant @ 5%
Tolerance Limit||Calculated in SPSS 17
209