COMMODITY RESEARCH

November 3,2016

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
COMEX /NYMEX / ICE (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY)

COMMODITY

CURRENCY / COMMODITY INDEX

CONTRACT

EXPIRY DATE

CLOSING PRICE

CURRENCY (Spot)

CURRENT PRICE

Silver

Dec

28-Dec-2016

18.69

USD / INR*

66.75

Gold

Dec

28-Dec-2016

1308.2

Dollar Index

97.4

Crude Oil

Nov

19-Oct-2016

45.34

EUR / USD

1.1094

Brent Crude Oil

Jan

30-Nov-2016

46.86

CRB Index

186.84

Natural Gas

Dec

28-Nov-2016

2.79

Closing as on 02.11.2016

Closing as on 02.11.2016

LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes)

SHFE (BASE METALS ) (Yuan per tonnes)

COMMODITY

MONTH

CLOSING PRICE

Copper

3 Months

4920

Aluminum

3 Months

1726.5

Zinc

3 Months

Lead
Nickel

COMMODITY

MONTH

CLOSING PRICE

Copper

Nov

38740

Aluminum

Nov

14240

2426

Zinc

Nov

19645

3 Months

2054

Lead

Nov

16545

3 Months

10320

Closing as on 02.11.2016

Closing as on 02.11.2016

DOMESTIC MARKETS
MCX (BULLIONS AND ENERGY)

COMMODITY

EXPIRY DATE

CLOSING PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND CHANGED

RATE TREND CHANGED

CLOSING STOP LOSS

Silver

05-Dec-2016

44079

Up

02.11.16

44079

42000

Gold

05-Dec-2016

30666

Up

02.11.16

30666

30000

Crude Oil

18-Nov-2016

3025

Down

01.11.16

3105

3350

Natural Gas

25-Oct-2016

188.9

Down

01.11.16

196.5

210

EXPIRY DATE

CLOSING PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND CHANGED

RATE TREND CHANGED

CLOSING STOP LOSS

Copper

30-Nov-2016

328.35

Up

27.10.16

321

320

Aluminum

30-Nov-2016

114.65

Up

22.09.16

108.3

111

Zinc

30-Nov-2016

162.05

Up

25.10.16

157.45

157

Lead

30-Nov-2016

137.6

Up

31.10.16

137.05

132

Nickel

30-Nov-2016

690.9

Up

31.10.16

696.3

665

MCX (BASE METALS)

COMMODITY

Market Update Bullians

Bullion counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels as US jobless claim data today and US nonfarm payroll
data tomorrow to give further give further direction to the prices. Gold can move in range of 30500-30750 while silver can
move in range of 43600-44500 in near term. Gold held steady early on Thursday, after rising as much as 1.5 percent in the
previous session, as uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. election offset signals from the Federal Reserve it could hike
interest rates next month. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in its last policy decision
before the U.S. election, but signalled it could hike in December as the economy gathers momentum and inflation picks up.
Euro zone manufacturing activity accelerated at its fastest rate in nearly three years last month, supported by a buoyant
performance from Germany, while inflationary pressures showed further signs of recovery, a survey found on Wednesday.

Market Update Base Metal

Base metals complex may remain on volatile path as US ISM manufacturing data to give further direction to the prices.
Copper may move in the range of 325-330. Lead can hover in the range of 136-139. Zinc may move in range of 161-163.
Nickel may move in the range of 685-700 in MCX. Aluminum can move in the range of 113.50-115.50 in MCX. London
copper slipped on Thursday from its highest level in more than three months after a tightening U.S. presidential race
sparked profit-taking, but a softer U.S. dollar and encouraging economic signals from top user China cushioned
prices. China's services sector grew at the strongest pace in four months in October as new business picked up,
encouraging companies to hire more workers, a private survey showed. The trend echoed growing activity at China's
factories after its official PMI expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, bolstering views that the
world's second-largest economy is stabilising.

Market Update Energy

Crude oil may open in green on short covering as it can move in range of 3000-3070 in MCX. U.S. crude oil stockpiles
soared more than 14 million barrels last week, the largest weekly build since the U.S. Energy Department started keeping
records in 1982, bolstered by hefty imports and a decline in refining runs. Crude inventories rose 14.4 million barrels in the
week to Oct. 28, the EIA said on Wednesday, compared with expectations for an increase of 1.0 million barrels. U.S. crude
imports jumped by about 2 million barrels per day to just under 9 million bpd, the highest rate since September 2012. The
massive build in supply represents a rebound after several weeks of sharp drawdown in inventories that was kicked off by a
14-million-barrel draw in early September. Natural gas may move with sideways bias as weekly inventory data to give
further direction to the prices. Overall it can move in range of 185-195 in MCX.

KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

IST

Economic releases

Importance

Expected

Previous

Impact on

Adverse/Favourable

18:00

US Initial Jobless Claims

Med

258K

258K

Metal and energy

Neutral

19:30

US Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

Med

0.002

0.002

Metal and energy

Neutral

19:30

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Med

56

57.1

Metal and energy

Adverse

20:00

EIA Natural Gas Storage

Med

56B

73B

Natural gas

Favourable

SMC Research Desk

SMC Research also available on Reuters

Corporate Office:
11/6B, Shanti Chamber,
Pusa Road, New Delhi - 110005
Tel: +91-11-30111000
w w w .smcindiaonline.com

E-mail: researchfeedback@smcindiaonline.com

Mumbai Office:
Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor,
Opp. Goregaon sports club, link road
Malad (W est), Mumbai - 500064
Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606

Kolkata Office:
18, Rabindra Sarani,
"Poddar Court", Gate No. 4,
4th Floor, Kolkata - 700001
Tel: 91-33-39847000, Fax: 91-3339847004

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as ("SMC") is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its
associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant w ith CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager
are registered w ith SEBI and NBFC registered w ith RBI. It also has registration w ith AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC has applied w ith SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended
by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ow nership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its
associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst
during the past tw elve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past tw elve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation
or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection w ith the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of
company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The view s expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any w arranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or view s expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the
market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public offering of its equity shares and
has filed the Draft Red Herring Prospectus w ith the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Stock Exchanges. The Draft Red Herring Prospectus is available on
the w ebsite of SEBI at w w w .sebi.gov.in and on the w ebsites of the Book Running Lead Manager i.e., ICICI Securities Limited at w w w .icicisecurities.com and the Co- Book
Running Lead Manager i.e., Elara Capital (India) Private Limited at w w w .elaracapital.com . Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk
and for details relating to the same, please see the section titled Risk Factors of the aforementioned offer document.
Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesnt construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for
private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that w e consider reliable, but w e do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied
upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form
w ithout prior w ritten permission of the SMC.
The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees
shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise toany person due toany action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or
take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past
performance doesnt guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain
period of time. The person should use his/her ow n judgment w hile taking investment decisions.
Pleasenotethatw eand our affiliates, officers, directors,and employees,including persons involvedinthe preparation orissuanceifthismaterial;(a)fromtimetotime, may havelongor
short positions in, and buy or sellthe commodities thereof,mentioned hereinor(b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest w ith respect to any recommendation and
related information and opinions. All disputes shall besubject tothe exclusive jurisdictionofDelhi Highcourt.