The future of leadership: where do we go

from here?
Andre Martin

Andre Martin is a senior

researcher, writer and
trainer for the Center for
Creative Leadership,
Colorado Springs,
Colorado, USA.

Abstract
Purpose This research paper seeks to identify that leadership is changing and will change even more in
the next five years according to a recent study by the Center for Creative Leadership (CCL). This change is
due to the increase in complex challenges that leaders face. Such challenges test the limits of an
organizations current strategies and reveal the shortcomings of leadership. This article looks at ways
leadership is shifting, the driving force of complexity, and the skills leaders need to be effective in the future.
Design/methodology/approach The study surveyed more than 350 mid- to upper-level managers
across the globe to explore the current and future state of leadership. Findings show 84 percent of
surveyed participants believe that the definition of effective leadership has changed in the last five
years. And more than 60 percent agree that leaders face challenges beyond their individual capabilities.
Findings The four trends that are driving this shift in leadership are globalization, rise of complex
challenges, a world of interruption, and leadership for longevity. Leaders in the future will need new skill
sets, greater collaboration skills, organizational architect ability, more flexible style, to be open and
adaptable to new ideas, and be able to find examples of positive disobedience.
Originality/value Todays leaders must be prepared for the future as globalization intensifies the
complexity in an already complex world. With globalization and complexity come a greater temptation of
interruption and higher levels of stress. With this increased stress, leaders must create a foundation of
health to ensure that they have the energy for the challenging times ahead.
Keywords Leadership, Complexity theory, Competitive strategy, Globalization
Paper type Research paper

t does not matter where you live. It does not matter what industry you work in. And it
makes no difference what position you hold.

Our world is undergoing a fundamental shift and it will affect each and every one of us.
Leadership is no longer a solo act. The concept of leadership is radically changing and the
challenges that leaders are facing go well beyond their individual capacities, creating
demand of interdependent, boundary-spanning work.
Center for Creative Leaderships (CCL) research, the Changing nature of leadership,
confirms that the challenges facing leaders are becoming more complex and difficult to
solve, making collaborative leadership a necessity.
The study surveyed more than 350 mid- to upper-level managers across the globe to explore
the current and future state of leadership. Findings show 84 percent of surveyed participants
believe that the definition of effective leadership has changed in the last five years. And more
than 60 percent agree that leaders face challenges beyond their individual capabilities.
There is no doubt that the definition of leadership has changed in the past five years and will
shift even further during the next five. But what is driving this shift and how will leadership
look in the future?

DOI 10.1108/00197850710721345

VOL. 39 NO. 1 2007, pp. 3-8, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 0019-7858

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL TRAINING

PAGE 3

CCLs research points to four important trends that are driving the need for a new definition of
leadership.

Globalization
The world is flat.
This concept, developed by author Thomas Friedman, examines the flattening of the
world a process by which individuals and their companies are being asked to lead and
work in a boundaryless environment where nine to five is no longer an option.
Todays business world is more interconnected with greater access across the globe. We are
experiencing an immediate off shoring of jobs, with one out of four IT jobs projected to be off
shore by 2010. Similar trends are expected in other professional service industries as well.
These high numbers are a direct result of the rising education levels in China and India,
where the number of graduates in finance/accounting, engineering, and life sciences is
growing by leaps and bounds.
In addition, global rates of literacy are growing, bringing about even more competition for
jobs and greater off shore opportunities in the future. And as a result of this access to
information and technology, we are experiencing greater levels of cultural exchange where
distant lands, such as Singapore and Beijing, are simply down the hall.
By collecting data from an international sample, CCL has been able to explore how
leadership is being practiced globally. A comparison of US, European and Asian
populations (see Figure 1) found that organizations in Europe and Asia-Pacific are making a
significant jump from individual to collective leadership approaches, when compared to US
organizations. In the future, these organizations expect to have fewer boundaries and a
greater reliance on leadership approaches focusing on emergent strategy and
interdependent decision making.
Figure 1 Future leadership approaches by global region

PAGE 4 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL TRAINING VOL. 39 NO. 1 2007

 Leadership is no longer a solo act. The concept of leadership

is radically changing and the challenges that leaders are
facing go well beyond their individual capacities.

To ensure success, todays leaders need to find the ground truth the idea that we must
fundamentally reshape tried and true solutions and products to fit a new time, place, and
customer. As we move beyond our borders, we must seek to understand the new markets
and environments before attempting to practice leadership within them.

The rise of complex challenges

Whereas generations before us had decades to prepare for enormous technological
advances and cultural transformations, today we do not have that luxury. In fact, according
to physicist Theodore Modis, if the current rate of complexity and change were to remain
constant, in a single week in 2025, we would experience all of the major milestones of the
twentierh century the creation of the automobile, the First and Second World Wars,
Vietnam, decoding DNA structure, nuclear energy, space travel, the Internet, and human
genome sequencing.
The leaders who participated in CCLs research are finding the challenges they face have
greater potential strategic impact, go beyond their individual capabilities, and are resistant
to traditional solutions. As a result of these complex challenges, leaders are more reliant on
collaborative approaches than ever before.
Globalization breeds this complexity. When asked about the rise of complexity, leaders
involved in CCLs research mentioned additional factors contributing to the rise of complex
challenges and the need for collaboration. They include: shifting competition bases,
increased shareholder expectations, the drive for innovation, boundary spanning, and the
need for organizational reinvention.
Shifting competition bases
There are few industries that are immune to shifting competition bases, such as the rise of
disruptive technology or ideas that emerge and alter the very landscape of a market or
industry. The major competitor of a large, well-established organization can completely
disappear one day and be replaced instantly by a college graduate working out of her
parents garage.
Increased expectation
Success is no longer based simply on profits. Stakeholder demands are as varied as the
communities that people work in and as the profiles of the shareholders themselves. There
is more to think about in terms of whose expectations you need to satisfy and how to go
about it.
Drive for innovation
Organizations must always look to the future because the quick pace of change demands
that innovation be a constant process. Companies know that even if they own a unique
product that no one can touch today, it could be obsolete tomorrow.
Boundary spanning resulting from mergers and acquisitions
When organizations join together in a partnership or merge to form a new company its very
difficult to bring the strengths of both organizations together and keep them alive in the new
entity.

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Need for reinvention

There is a need for new business models that are more appropriate for a different place and
time. The recent news from Ford and GM about a loss of market share and recent
reorganizations exemplifies this push. Organizations are being forced to make drastic
changes to stay competitive.
These factors are causing an increased complexity and driving a greater reliance on more
people to be successful. Hence, the balance between bottom-line skills and relationship
skills is shifting (see Table I), with relationship- and connection-based skills increasingly
being viewed as primary or pivotal.

A world of interruption
Our world has become frenetic, brought on by globalization and greater complexity. We live
in a state of continuous partial attention, where we are expected to be in six different places
at once without ever leaving our office. At the same time, we are required to balance our
inefficient attention spans with the overwhelming onslaught of information coming at us
every second of the day.
Whereas 20 years ago, office workers had only a desk phone (with an instant answer
required) and postal mail (which took several days), todays workers have too many
communication options. Information is no longer a scarce resource; the problem comes
down to attention.
This attention deficit is highlighted in a study of office workers and their habits, conducted by
Gloria Marks. The study involving two well-known technology firms revealed that
employees spend only 11 minutes on any given project before being interrupted, and they
take about 25 minutes to return to the original task.
The temptation of interruption, however, is not all bad. Many interruptions are difficult to
ignore because they involve relationships someone or something calling out to us, making
us feel needed, important, and connected. To find a good medium between being
overconnected and underconnected, we must learn how to sift through our
information-laden world and focus on what truly matters.
The definition of what truly matters is changing, according to CCL data. In 2002, leaders
ranked the skills important for future development as: leading employees, resourcefulness,
and straightforwardness. Four years later, in 2006, building relationships jumped to the top.
Based on the Changing nature of leadership research, CCL has recognized that typical
leadership skills might not be enough in the new world. As a result, CCL is designing
programs around skills, such as paying attention, co-inquiry, risk taking, and adaptability to
help leaders prepare for the future.

Leadership for longevity

Increases in stress, high expectations, and energy consumption are a reality in todays
world. But high levels of stress sustained over long periods of time directly related to a
greater temptation of interruption can contribute to severe health risks, low performance,
Table I Leadership skills past and future

Individual leadership skill categories

2002 rank

Future rank

Leadership employees
Building and mending relationships
Change management
Participation management
Resourcefulness
Decisiveness
Doing whatever it takes
Straightforwardness and composure

1
5
7
6
2
4
7
3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

PAGE 6 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL TRAINING VOL. 39 NO. 1 2007

 . . . according to physicist Theodore Modis, if the current rate

of complexity and change were to remain constant, in a single
week in 2025, we would experience all of the major
milestones of the twentieth century.

and even death. To ensure our long-term survival, we must build a foundation of health and
work to fight all-too-common diseases, such as obesity, cancer, and heart disease.
It begins with exercise. For years, studies in nutrition and health sciences have found that
exercise can lower stress levels, increase energy, boost productivity, and even fight
depression. And CCLs research proves there is a strong correlation between exercise and
leadership effectiveness.
Additional CCL research completed by Sharon McDowell-Larson found that when
comparing the personal attributes of exercisers to non-exercisers, exercisers ranked
higher in energy, dependability, organization, productivity, and optimism. And it is no
surprise that a majority of CEOs rate their top personal goal as fitness.

Preparing for the future

What do these trends mean for leaders both aspiring professionals, as well as leaders who
have been in place for some time? What will this new leader look like?
New skill sets
The new leader needs to achieve bottom-line results, but must do this through collaboration,
teamwork, and innovation. The key to success is being able to do both well. While profits and
funding are still important to companies and non-profit organizations, they are no longer the
great differentiators of performance. Instead, there is a clear shift toward skills that are tied to
relationships and managing change. In fact, many MBA programs are moving in this
direction and offering soft-skill training, such as how to build stronger teams and how to
communicate more effectively.
Greater collaboration
In addition to being a participative manager, leaders need to build important relationships
and work across boundaries to collaborate effectively. This is critical to providing greater
agility and flexibility for organizations and their leaders in order to respond faster to changes
in society.
Become an organizational architect
To create an environment that facilitates the new skill sets for leaders, an organization must
change its systems and the way it operates to allow people to collaborate and work more
interdependently (see Table II). One way is to change the reward system so that you are no
longer rewarded simply for your individual input but also for teamwork, achieving long-term
objectives, and innovation.
Create a more flexible style
One way for individuals to build skills is to accept or actively seek challenging
assignments that take you out of your technical expertise and into work that involves a
broader range of people across the organization. Also key is pairing up-and-coming leaders
with those who already practice participatory management and giving aspiring leaders
real-life experiences to actively learn on a day-to-day basis. In addition, executive
leadership opportunities outside of your organization are important. A number of

VOL. 39 NO. 1 2007 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL TRAINING PAGE 7

Table II Rewards and recognition current and optimal

Mean PTS awarded for reward/recognition activities
Teamwork
Making the numbers
Individual performance
Unit-level performance
Innovation
Collaboration
Long-term objectives
Working across boundaries
Other

Current

Optimal

10
25
19
10
8
8
6
5
1

14
13
13
8
11
11
12
8
1

executive-education institutions around the world offer effective and powerful workshops
focused on expanding skill sets.

Be open and adaptable to new ideas

Leaders need to be as flexible as possible and participate in numerous diverse experiences.
Try out different approaches so that you have them when you need them and will not have to
build them while you are in the middle of a new challenge. For those who already have a
significant part of their careers under their belts, expand your horizon. Be sure not to rely on a
single skill set or strength that might have helped you through the first ten years of your
career. Instead, pursue more challenging experiences, consider working with a mentor, and
interact with a variety of people not only those who see the world your way.

Find examples of positive disobedience

The best place to find new leadership tools is within your own organization. Look to the
leaders who have been living outside the rules and still achieve results by practicing
collaboration and change management. Now is the time to embrace these leaders as
teachers and study their methods. They can teach you which approaches will work given
your organizational culture, industry, and strategic approach.
Globalization is intensifying the complexity in an already complex world. And with
globalization and complexity come a greater temptation of interruption and higher levels of
stress. With this increased stress, leaders must create a foundation of health to ensure they
have the energy for the challenging times ahead.
Survival is based on a dramatic shift in leadership. It is no longer the time of the heroic leader
the leader who walks in and takes up all the space in the room. Instead, the job of todays
leader is to create space for other people to generate new and different ideas; to encourage
meaningful conversation between people; and to assist people in becoming more effective,
agile, and prepared to respond to complex challenges.

About the author

Andre Martin is a senior researcher, writer and trainer for the Center for Creative Leadership,
Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. Andre can be contacted at: martina@leaders.ccl.org

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