ESRLRAP/HRRRupdatesJanApr2014

Concludingwiththe03UTC10April2014cycletheESRL/GSDRAP(13km)andHRRR(3km)havebeen
upgradedtoincludeallofthefollowingdataassimilationandmodelchanges:

ESRLRAP13kmDataAssimilationChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)UpdatedGridpointStatisticalInterpolation(GSI)packagetoarecentsourcecodetrunkrevision(change
effective06UTC12March2014).
Importantforconsistencywithtrunkcode
Changeinforecastqualitysmall

(2)ChangedGSIhybriddataassimilationtoincreasetheweightto75%formodelbackgrounderror
covariancederivedfromaGFS80memberensembleforecastat60kmusingtheensembleKalmanfilter
whiledecreasingtheweightto25%forstatic3Dmodelbackgrounderrorcovariancetofurtherimprovethe
assimilationofallobservations.Aslightlytighterfittoupperlevelobservationsattheanalysistimeand
throughouttheforecastperiodcanbeexpected(changeeffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualityhighforallapplicationsandseasons

(3)Introducedcycledsatelliteradiancebiascorrection(forbothangleandmass)inGSIduringassimilation.
AddedAMSUA/MHSchannelsfromMETOPBandGOESsounderdatainradianceassimilation.Removed
someupperlevelchannelsforAMSUA/GOES/HIRS4data.Aslightlytighterfittoupperlevelobservations
attheanalysistimeandthroughouttheforecastperiodcanbeexpected(changeeffective06UTC12
March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumforallapplicationsandseasons

(4)CorrectedsoiltemperatureandmoistureadjustmentsinGSIduringdataassimilationtoavoidwater
pointsonthecoarseranalysisgrid(changeeffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmallforallapplicationsandseasons

(5)Correctedthenonvariationalcloudandprecipitatinghydrometeoranalysisto(a)properlyconservevirtual
potentialtemperatureduringsaturationofcloudbearinglayers,(b)limitthesaturationofcloudbearinglayers
to100%relativehumidity,and(c)properlyscalerainnumberconcentrationinadditiontorainwatermixing
ratiowhenreducingmodelvaluestoobservedvaluesatspecificlevels.Anincreaseinlowlevelmoisture
andtemperaturecanbeexpectedinsomecaseswherelowlevel(lessthan1.2kmAGL)cloudsare
observed.Acloserfittolowerlevelobservationsinsomecloudyareascanbeexpectedattheanalysis
time(changeseffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmallforallapplicationsandseasons

(6)Changedthecycledsnowcoverfieldsthroughmodificationsinbuildingofsnowcoverinthe00UTC
cyclebasedupontheInteractiveMultisensorSnowandIceMappingSystem(IMS)snowcoveranalysis.A
neighborhoodgridpointapproachisnowusedtobuildsnowbaseduponsnowcovercharacteristicsfrom
surroundinggridpoint(s).Theskin/snowtemperatureforpointswithbuiltsnowarenowlimitedtonomore
than272K(changeeffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfor2mtemperatureinsnowcoverornearsnowcoverareas,
correctslargelocalsurfacetemperatureerrorsfromerroneoussnowcover,especiallyinspringand
latewinter(smalloverall)

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(7)Enhancedtheassimilationofsurfacedewpointobservationsbyaccountingforthedifferencebetweenthe
heightofthelowestmodellevel(~8mAGL)andtheheightofthesurfaceobservation(2mAGL).A
reductioninmoistbiasoflowerlevelrelativehumiditythroughtheforecastperiodcanbeexpected(change
effective17UTC05April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumhighfor2mdewpointforecastsandrelatedmoisturefieldsfor
allseasons

ESRLRAP13kmModelChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)UpdatedAdvancedWeatherandResearchForecastmodel(WRFARW)fromaversion3.4.1codebase
toaversion3.5.1codebaseincludinganupdatedThompsonmicrophysicsversion(changeseffective06
UTC12March2014).
Importantforconsistencywithcommunitycode
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall

(2)ChangedtotheGrellFreitas(GF)convectiveparameterizationscheme(fromanolderGrellscheme).
Theschemeisdesignedtobecomelessactiveasthegridsizereducestocloudresolvingscaleswith
enhancedshallowcumulusparameterization.Atighterfittoupperlevelobservationscanbeexpectedatthe
analysistimeandthroughouttheforecastperiodfromimprovedconvectiveforecasts.Improvedprecipitation
forecastscanalsobeexpectedwithareductioninhighbiasoflowerprecipitationamounts(lessthanahalf
inchinasixhourperiod)andanimprovedbiasofhigherprecipitationamounts(morethanahalfinchinasix
hourperiod)(changeeffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualityhighforallapplicationsandseasons,moresoinwarmseason.

(3)ChangedtotheRapidRadiativeTransferModelGlobal(RRTMG)schemeforbothshortwaveand
longwaveradiation(fromthepreviousGoddard/RRTMradiationschemes).TheRRTMGschemeisdesigned
touseastatisticalmethodtoresolvesubgridscalecloudvariabilityandincludesthepotentialforimproved
interactionwiththeThompsonmicrophysicsschemeandaerosols.Theperiodbetweenradiationcallshas
beenincreasedfrom10minto20minduringtheforecastperiod,butanadditionaloptionhasbeenenabled
tointerpolateshortwaveradiationbasedontheupdatedsolarzenithanglebetweenradiationcalls(changes
effective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumforsurfacesolarradiationforecasts,smalloverall

(4)EnhancedRUCLandSurfaceModel(RUCLSM)includinganincreasedthicknessofthetopsnowlayer
andincreasedvalueofexchangecoefficientforstablestratificationin2mdiagnosticswhen2m
temperatureissetequaltothefirstatmosphericlevel.Thesechangeswillhelpreducethe2mcold
temperaturebiasoverexistingsnowcoveratnight(changeseffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualityhighfor2mtemperatureforecastsoversnowpackatnight,small
overall

(5)EnhancedMellorYamadaNakanishiNiino(MYNN)planetaryboundarylayer(PBL)schemeincluding
improvedcouplingofthePBLschemewithradiationfeedbackintheGFshallowcumulusconvective
parameterizationschemeandareducedthermalroughnesslengthoversnow.Thethermalroughness
changewillhelpreducethe2mcoldtemperaturebiasoverexistingsnowcoveratnightinconcertwith
changesin(4)(changeseffective06UTC12March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumhighfor2mtemperatureforecastsoversnowpackatnight,
mediumoverall

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(6)Relaxedtherestrictionfordiagnosisoficepellets(sleet)asasurfaceprecipitationtypeandenforced
diagnosisof2mdewpointtobeequalorlessthanthe2mtemperature(changeseffective06UTC12
March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfor2mtemperature/dewpointandprecipitationtypeforecasts,
smalloverall

(7)Increasedthesurfaceroughnesslengthvaluesto1mforurbanand20cmforcroplandlanduse
categoriestohelpreducethehighwindspeedbiasnearthesurface(changeseffective17UTC05April
2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfornearsurfacewindforecasts,smalloverall

(8)AddedseasonallyvaryingMODISvegetationfractionandfractionalleafareaindexforimprovedsurface
roughness,andsensibleandlatentheatfluxes(changeeffective17UTC05April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumespeciallyfor2mtemperature/dewpointand10mwind
forecasts

(9)AddedmodelterrainelevationblendingnearthelateralboundariesoftheRAPdomainforasmoother
transitiontothecoarserresolutionGFSgridandincludedacorrectioninverticalinterpolationofGFSdata
forlateralboundaryconditions.Thesechangesenhancethenumericalstabilityinthelateralboundary
regions(changeseffective06UTC12March2014and17UTC05April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmall

HRRR3kmDataAssimilationChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(Changes15belowforHRRRassimilationmatchthosealsoimplementedforRAP)

(1)UpdatedGridpointStatisticalInterpolation(GSI)packagetoarecentsourcecodetrunkrevision(change
effective08UTC08April2014).
Importantforconsistencywithtrunkcode
Changeinforecastqualitysmall

(2)EnabledGSIhybriddataassimilationwithmodelbackgrounderrorcovariancesnowincluding75%froma
flow(weather)dependencederivedfromaGFS80memberensembleforecastat60kmusingtheEnsemble
KalmanFilterincombinationwith25%static3Dmodelbackgrounderrorcovariancetoimprovethe
assimilationofallobservations.Aslightlytighterfittoupperlevelobservationsattheanalysistimeand
throughouttheforecastperiodcanbeexpected(changeeffective08UTC08April2014).
Changeinforecastqualityhighforallapplicationsandseasons

(3)CorrectedsoiltemperatureandmoistureadjustmentsinGSIduringdataassimilationtoavoidwater
pointsonthecoarseranalysisgrid(changeeffective08UTC08April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmallforallapplicationsandseasons

(4)Correctedthenonvariationalcloudandprecipitatinghydrometeoranalysisto(a)properlyconservevirtual
potentialtemperatureduringsaturationofcloudbearinglayers,(b)limitthesaturationofcloudbearinglayers
to100%relativehumidity,and(c)properlyscalerainnumberconcentrationinadditiontorainwatermixing
ratiowhenreducingmodelvaluestoobservedvaluesatspecificlevels.Anincreaseinlowlevelmoisture
andtemperaturecanbeexpectedinsomecaseswherelowlevel(lessthan1.2kmAGL)cloudsare

3
observed.Acloserfittolowerlevelobservationsinsomecloudyareascanbeexpectedattheanalysis
time(changeeffective08UTC08April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmallforallapplicationsandseasons

(5)Enhancedtheassimilationofsurfacedewpointobservationsbyaccountingforthedifferencebetweenthe
heightofthelowestmodellevel(~8mAGL)andtheheightofthesurfaceobservation(2mAGL).A
reductioninmoistbiasoflowerlevelrelativehumiditythroughtheforecastperiodcanbeexpected(change
effective08UTC08April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumhighfor2mdewpointforecastsandrelatedmoisturefieldsfor
allseasons

(6)(UniquetoHRRR)Adjustedtheassimilationofradarreflectivityderivedlatentheatingat15minintervals
througha1hourpreforecastperiodbyloweringthethresholdforspecificationoflatentheatingfrom35dBZ
to28dBZandreducingthemagnitudeofthelatentheatingforagivenreflectivitybyafactoroffour.The
changesrepresentabroadeningandweakeningoftheforcingappliedfromradarreflectivityobservationsto
slightlyreduceexcessiveconvectivestormdevelopmentatthebeginningofaHRRRforecastrun(change
effective08UTC08April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumforconvectivestormdevelopmentandmaintenance,small
otherwise

HRRR3kmModelChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)Relaxedtherestrictionfordiagnosisoficepellets(sleet)asasurfaceprecipitationtypeandenforced
diagnosisof2mdewpointtobeequalorlessthanthe2mtemperature(changeseffective05UTC13
March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfor2mtemperature/dewpointandprecipitationtypeforecasts,
smalloverall

(2)ChangedmodelinitializationtoretainsnowcoveroverfrozenwaterpointsfromtheRAP.Thischange
promotesretentionofsnowpackandimproved2mtemperatureforecastsoverfrozenwater(change
effective06UTC23March2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall

(3)UpdatedAdvancedWeatherandResearchForecastmodel(WRFARW)fromaversion3.4.1codebase
toaversion3.5.1codebaseincludinganupdatedThompsonmicrophysicsversion(changeseffective03
UTC10April2014).
Importantforconsistencywithcommunitycode
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall

(4)ChangedtotheRapidRadiativeTransferModelGlobal(RRTMG)schemeforbothshortwaveand
longwaveradiation(fromthepreviousGoddard/RRTMschemes).Thisschemeisdesignedtousea
statisticalmethodtoresolvesubgridscalecloudvariabilityandincludesthepotentialforimproved
interactionwiththeThompsonmicrophysicsschemeandaerosols.Theperiodbetweenradiationcallshas
beenincreasedfrom5minto15minduringtheforecastperiod,butanadditionaloptionhasbeenenabledto
interpolateshortwaveradiationbasedontheupdatedsolarzenithanglebetweenradiationcalls(changes
effective03UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumforsurfacesolarradiationforecasts,smalloverall

4
(5)EnhancedRUCLandSurfaceModel(RUCLSM)includinganincreasedthicknessofthetopsnowlayer
andincreasedvalueofexchangecoefficientforstablestratificationin2mdiagnosticswhen2m
temperatureissetequaltothefirstatmosphericlevel.Thesechangeswillhelpreducethe2mcold
temperaturebiasoverexistingsnowcoveratnight(changeseffective03UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualityhighfor2mtemperatureforecastsoversnowpackatnight,small
overall

(6)EnhancedMellorYamadaNakanishiNiino(MYNN)planetaryboundarylayer(PBL)schemeincludinga
reducedthermalroughnesslengthoversnow.Thethermalroughnesschangewillhelpreducethe2mcold
temperaturebiasoverexistingsnowcoveratnightinconcertwithchangesin(5)(changeseffective03
UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumhighfor2mtemperatureforecastsoversnowpackatnight,
mediumoverall

(7)Increasedthesurfaceroughnesslengthvaluesto1mforurbanand20cmforcroplandlandusetohelp
reducethehighwindspeedbiasnearthesurface(changeseffective03UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfornearsurfacewindforecasts,smalloverall

(8)AddedseasonallyvaryingMODISvegetationfractionandfractionalleafareaindexforimprovedsurface
roughness,andsensibleandlatentheatfluxes(changeeffective03UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumespeciallyfor2mtemperature/dewpointand10mwind
forecasts

(9)AddedmodelterrainblendingnearthelateralboundariesoftheHRRRdomainforasmoothertransition
tothecoarserresolutionRAPgridandincludedimprovedverticalinterpolationofRAPdataforlateral
boundaryconditions.Thesechangesenhancethenumericalstabilityinthelateralboundaryregions
(changeeffective03UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmall

(10)Introduced6thorderdiffusioninregionswithveryshallowmodelsurfaceslopes(relativelyflatterrain)to
reducegridscalenoiseinthemassandmomentumfieldsbyatleast25%,particularlyinweatherregimes
withweakflow.Thisreductioninnoisecanpreventoccurrenceofverysmallscale,generallyveryweak,
modelreflectivitystructures(changeeffective03UTC10April2014).
Changeinforecastqualitysmall

TheESRLRAPandHRRRdataassimilationandmodelconfigurationswillnowremainfrozen,withthe
exceptionofsoftwarebugfixes,throughtheremainderofthespring,summerandearlyfallwiththenext
changesbeingappliedonorafter01November2014.

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Asummaryofallchangeseffective03UTC10April2014ispresentedinthefollowingtable:

Allofthisinformationisalsoavailableonourwebsiteat:
http://ruc.noaa.gov/pdf/ESRLRAPHRRRchanges2014.pdf

(accessiblevialinksunder"Description"athttp://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAPand
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR)

AllrecentandcurrentrevisionsofstaticfilesfortheRAPandHRRRareavailableonourRAPandHRRR
websitesincludingWRFARWpreprocessing(WPS)geographyfiles,ungribVtables,metgridtables,and
WPSandWRFARWnamelists.

TheRAPandHRRRstaticfilesarelocatedat:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/static

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/static