SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND BINOMIAL PROBLEMS

Questions on Binomial Situations (Events)

1. Which of the following indicates the value of(~) (.3)2(.7) 6 ?

A. binomcdf(8,.3,2)

B. binompdf(8,.7,2)

C. binompdf(8,.3,2)

D. 1 - binompdf(8,.3,2)

E. binomcdf(8,.7,6)

Answer C. binompdf(8,.3,2). The correct form on the TI-83 is binompdf(n,p,x). Here, n = 8,

p .3, and x = 2.

2. You take a JOO-question multiple-choice test. Each question has five choices, and you
guess at each question. Which of the following calculator commands would give you the
probability of getting at least 30 questions correct?

A. 1 - binompdf(l00,.2,29)

B. binomcdf( 100,.2,29)

C. binomcdf(]00,.2,30)

D. 1 - binomcdf(]00,.2,30)

E. 1 - binomcdf(l 00,.2,29)

Answer E. 1 - binomcdf(l00,.2,29). Binomcdf(n,p,x) will sum the individual probabilities from

X = 0 through X x. Since you want the sum of all possibilities starting at 30, you must
subtract the sum of all possibilities less than 30 from 1.

3. Which of the following are not essential characteristics of a binomial event?

I. Each outcome must be independent.
II. The sample size must be at least 20.
Ill. A trial can have only two possible outcomes.

A. I only

B. I and II only

C. II and III only

D. II only

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E. III only

Answer D. the sample size must be at least 20. A sample size of 20 isn't an essential characteristic
of a binomial event. Individual trials must be independent, and there are only two possible
outcomes (success or failure).

4. True or False: The following situation could be considered a binomial experiment:

In 1999, 25,000 students took the AP Statistics Exam. The probability that a randomly
selected student from this group passed the exam was about .6. A statistician wants to know
the likelihood that more than 650 out of 1000 students randomly selected from this group
passed the exam.

Answer True. Even though this situation doesn't strictly fit the definition of a binomial event (there
are no independent trials), it's still a binomial event, since the population is more than 20
times greater than the sample size.

5. The probability that a given 80-year-old person will die in the next year is .27. What's the
probability that exactly l O of 40 80-year-olds will die in the next year?

A. .8615

B. .4685

C. .1385

D. .1208

E. .00000000031795

Answer C. .1385. This is binompdf(40,.27,10) or (i~)(.27) 10 (.73? 0 , which equals .1385.

6. The probability that a given 80-year-old person will die in the next year is .27. What's the
probability that between 10 and 15 (inclusive) of 40 80-year-olds will die in the next year')

A. .9191

B. .4685

C. .6191

D. .4806

E. .6454

Answer C. .6191. This equals binomcdf(40,.27,15) - binomcdf(40,.27,9).

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7. Which of the following are true?

I. A binomial event has exactly two possible outcomes.
II. If the population size is at least 20 times the sample size, the independence criteria for a
binomial has been met.
111. As long as the probability for each trial is clearly specified, different trials can have different
probabilities of success.

A. I and II only

B. II only

C. I only

D. III only

E. I, II, and III

Answer A. I and II only. III isn't true since all probabilities in a binomial situation must be equal.

8. Consider a binomial event with B(75,.6). Which of the following represents the probability
of getting exactly 50 successes?

A. G~) (. 6)50(.4)25
B. G6)(.6)50 ( .4)25
C. G6) (.4)50(.6)25
D. G6)(. 6)25(.4)50
E. (.6)50(.4)25

Answer B. G6) (.6) 50 (.4) 25 . This is the correct mathematical expression for the requested binomial
experiment.

Questions on Binomial Settings and Binomial Probabilities

1. Fred is a weightlifter who can lift 800 pounds on 45% of his attempts. Which of these
expressions represents the probability Fred will make 30 lifts out of 60?

A. N(60, .45, 30)

8. B(60, .45, 30)

C. B(30, .45, 60)

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D. B(30, .800, 60)

E. N(30, .800, 60)

Answer B. B(60, .45, 30). A binomial distribution is written as B(n, p), where n is the number of
trials and p is the probability of success on each trial. A specific probability is written as
B(n, p, X), where X is the number of successes.

2. What's the probability of getting 1 or 3 fives on 10 rolls of a fair die? (Hint: Remember the
rule for finding P(A or B).)

A. B(lO, 1/6, 1) B(lO, 1/6, 3)

B. B(lO, 1/6, 1) + B(lO, 1/6, 3)

C. N(lO, 1/6, 1) N(lO, 1/6, 3)

D. N(lO, 1/6, 1) + N(lO, 1/6, 3)

E. B(lO, 1/6, 3) + B(lO, 1/6, 5)

Answer B. B(lO, 1/6, 1) + B(lO, 1/6, 3). To get P(X = 1), find B(lO, 1/6, 1), which is P(X =
1) (\0 )(1/6) 1 (1 - 1/6) 10 - 1 , or binompdf(lO, 1/6, 1) = .323. To get P(X 3), find
B(lO, 1/6, 3), which is P(X = 3) (\0 )(1/6)3(1-1/6) 10 -3, orbinompdf(lO, 1/6, 3) =
.155. To combine the two probabilities using or, simply add them: P(X = 1) + P(X =
3) = .323 + .155 = .478.

3. Which of the following situations satisfies all the conditions of a binomial setting? (These
conditions are: we know the number of repetitions, the outcome of each trial can be consid-
ered either a success or a failure, we know the probability of success or failure of any trial,
and the probability doesn't change from trial to trial.)

A. A jar contains five balls: three red and two white. Two balls are randomly selected from
the jar without replacement, and the number X of red balls is recorded.

B. A jar contains 500 balls-300 red and 200 white. Ten balls are randomly selected from the
jar, and the number X of red balls is recorded.

C. A meteorologist in Chicago records the number of days of rain from August through March.

D. A market research firm hires operators to conduct telephone surveys. The computer goes
down an alphabetical list of names, dialing the number for each name. When a caller answers
the phone, an operator asks the respondent if they have time to answer some questions.

E. In a class of 40 AP Statistics students who've just begun their course, how many will pass?

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Answer B. Ajar contains 500 balls-300 red and 200 white. Ten balls are randomly selected from
the jar, and the number X of red balls is recorded. This is an almost binomial situation.
The probability of success is slightly different for each trial because each time you remove
a ball you change the population numbers, which changes the probability of getting a red
or white ball. Since the population is much larger than the sample, however, the change in
p from event to event is insignificant. As a rule, the population should be at least 20 times
larger than the sample.

4. What's the probability of getting exactly 1 five when we roll a fair die 10 times?

A. (i10 ) (1/6)9(1 - 1/6) = binompdf(l0,1/6,1) = .485

B. (i10 )(1/6)9(1 - 1/6) binompdf(l0,1/6,1) = .300

C. (i10) (1/6)9(1 - 1/6) = binompdf(l0,1/6,1) .500

D. (1~) (1/6) 1 (1 1/6) 10 - 1

= binompdf(l0,1/6,1) = .323

E. (\0 ) (1/6) 1 (1 - 1/6) 10 - 1

= binompdf(l0,1/6,1) = .485

Answer D. (\0 )(1/6) 1 (1 - l/6) 10 - 1 = binompdf(l0,1/6,1) = .323. The number of trials is 10,
the probability of success (getting a five) on each trial is 1/6, and you're interested in the
probability of getting 1 success. So you want to solve B(lO, 1/6, 1), which is .323.

5. Suppose you roll a six-sided die 10 times. What's the probability of getting three fives in
those 10 rolls?

A. .60

B. .30

C. .155

D. .000618

E. .930

Answer C. .155. The number of fives is a random variable with the distribution B(lO, 1/6, X).
There are 10 independent trials, each with a probability of success l/6. We want to know
P(X = 3). FollowingtheformulaP(X = x) = (:)(p)x(1-pr-x, wegetP(X = 3)
(1i) = (1/6)3(5/6) 7 This can also be calculated as binompdf(l0,1/6,3), which gives you
.155.

6. If you roll a six-sided die 10 times, what's P(x > 3)?

A. 1-binomcdf(l 0, 1/6,2)

B. 1-binomcdf(l 0, 1/6,3)

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C. (13) (1/6) 3 (5/6) 7 + (\0 ) (1/6) 4 (5/6) 6 + ... (19) (1/6)9(5/6) 1

+ (t~) (1/6)10(5/6)0
D. P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) + P(x = 7)
+P(x = 8) + P(x = 9) + P(x = 10)

E. l-binomcdf(l0,1/6,4)

Answer B. 1-binomcdf(lO, 1/6,3). The number offives is a random variable that has B(lO, 1/6,
There are 10 independent trials, each with a 1/6 probability of success. You want the
probabilities that x equals the numbers underlined below:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10.

Since binomcdf gives you the probability for x values at or below the value you enter, find the
probability for x ::S: 3 and subtract it from one. In other words, enter 1-binomcdf( 10, 1/6,3).

7. If a success is defined as getting a three on a six-sided die, what's P(2 < 3) if you roll the
die 10 times?

A. binomcdf(l0,1/6,4)

B. binomcdf(J0,1/6,3)

C. l-binomcdf(l0,1/6,3)

D. P(x = 3) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 0)

E. binomcdf(l 0, 1/6,2)

Answer E. binomcdf(l 0, 1/6,2). The number of 3s is a random variable with the distribution
B(lO, 1/6, x). There are 10 independent trials, each with a 1/6 probability of success.
So the random variable X can take on values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10. We want to
know P(X < 3), or the underlined numbers:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10.

On your calculator, enter binomcdf(l 0, 1/6,2) because you want 2 and below.

8. A friend of yours can shoot free throws with 75% accuracy (she makes 75% of her shots)
If she attempts 25 free throws, what's the probability she'll make at least 20'!

A. P(x = 20)

B. P(x > 20)

C. 1 - P(x < 19)

D. P(x = 20) + P(x 21) + P(x 22) + P(x = 23) + P(x 24) + P(x 2.5)

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E. P(x = 20) + P(x 19) + P(x = 18) + P(x = 17) + .. + P(x 0)

Answer D. P(x 20) + P(x = 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x = 23) + P(x 24) + P(x = 25).
P(20 or more) = P(x 2'. 20) = P(x = 20) + P(x 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x
23) + P(x = 24) + P(x = 25) = 1 P(x :S 19) 1 .622 = .378. On a TI-83, this is
l-binomcdf(25,.75, 19).

9. A friend of yours can shoot free throws with 70% accuracy (she makes 70% of her shots).
If she attempts 25 free throws, what's the probability she'll make fewer than 14?

A. G~)(.7)14(.3)11 + G~)(.7)13(.3)12 + ... +(215)(.7)1(.3)24 + (2t)

(. 7)0 ( .3)25

B. P(x 14) + P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + P(x 17) + + P(x 25)

C. P(x < 14)

D. 1 P(x < 14)

E. P(x = 14) + P(x = 13) + P(x 12) +P(x 11) + P(x = 10) + + P(x 0)

Answer C. P(x < 14). This is the sum of the probabilities from 13 down to 0.

10. There are 500 cars in Frank's junkyard: 350 blue and 150 red. If Joe randomly selects
25 cars from his yard, what's the probability he'll get from 14 to 20 blue cars, inclusive?
Could this be considered an almost binomial event? Choose the best answer.

A. P(14 < x < 20)

Not an almost binomial event.

B. (i~)(.7)14(.3)11 + (i~)(.7)15(.3)10 + ... + (i~)(. 7)19(.3)6 + (;~)(. 7)20(. 3)5

This is an almost binomial event.

C. P(x = 14) + P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + P(x = 17) + P(x = 18) + P(x = 19)
This is an almost binomial event.

D. binomcdf(25,.7,20) - binomcdf(25,.7,14)
This is an almost binomial event.

E. binompdf(25,.7,20)- binompdf(25,.7,14)
Not an almost binomial event.

Answer B. You want P(l4 :S x :S 20), and this expression adds all of the probabilities from x = 14
to x = 20. It's an almost binomial event because the population is at least 20 times the
sample size.

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 Questions on Geometric Probability Distributions

1. Which of the following represents a geometric setting?

A. The number red M & Ms in a handful of 25 M & Ms

B. The number of cards dealt from a deck before you get a 10

C. The amount of time you wait in line at a bank before getting to the counter

D. The number of random telephone numbers you dial until you get an answer

E. The number of people entering the intensive care unit at a particular hospital on any day

Answer D. the number of random telephone numbers you dial until you get an answer. This meets
the criteria for a geometric setting: each trial has just two outcomes (usuaJly success or
failure), and the probability of success is the same for each trial (usually referred to asp). In
the geometric situation, however, the random variable Xis the number of trials required to
obtain the first success. In this case, someone either answers or doesn't, and the probability
p of success should be the same each time.

2. True or False: A geometric probability distribution is skewed.

Answer True. Geometric distributions are always skewed, though some are less skewed than others.
There's a limit on one end and a long tail of diminishing probabilities on the other end.

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3. When rolling a 6-sided die, what's the probability of having to roll 6 times before you get
a 4?

A. 0.167

8.

C. 0.067

D. 0.665

E. 0.000107

Answer C. 0.067. The first five rolls will not give you a 4, but the sixth does. The calculation is
5
( ~) i
= 0.067. You can use the TI-83 to find this answer by entering geometpdf( 1/6, 6).

4. Suppose you attend a baseball game late in the season. The Seattle Mariners are playing,
and Ken Griffey Jr.'s batting average is 0.308. What's the probability he'll get his first hit
of the game on or before his third at bat?

A. 0.669

8. 0.147

C. 0.924

D. 0.029

E. 0.308

Answer A. 0.669. This question asks for P( 1st hit on 1st at bat) + P( 1st hit on 2nd at bat) + P( l st
hit on 3rd at bat). You can enter geometcdf(.308, 3) on your calculator to get the same
result.

5. You're at a Seattle Mariners baseball game late in the season, when Ken Griffey Jr.'s batting
average is 0.308. You want to calculate the probability, using a binomial setting, that he'll
get his first hit of the game on or before his third at bat. What assumption(s) do you have
to make to get your answer?

A. Ken Griffey Jr. will be able to get a hit by his 3rd at bat.

8. Ken Griffey Jr.'s 0.308 batting average won't change (at least significantly) in each at bat.

C. Ken Griffey Jr. won't get a hit all 3 times at bat.

D. Ken Griffey Jr. will try 3 battings.

E. Ken Griffey Jr.'s 0.308 batting average changes significantly depending on the outcome of
the previous at bat.

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Answer B. that his .308 batting average won't change (at least significantly) in each at bat.

6. Suppose population data suggests that 20% of applicants to a statistical surveying job will
have prior surveying experience. How many candidates would have to be interviewed, on
average, to find someone with prior surveying experience?

A. 20

B. 5

C. Answer will vary

D. 20% of the number of applicants

E. 80% of the number of applicants

Answer B. 5. This is an average waiting-time problem. Since the probability of success is 20%,, the
average waiting time is l/.2, or five applicants. Note that this is just the average number
required if this activity were to be repeated many times.

7. In the geometric setting the trials are independent, each trial has just two possible outcomes
(success and failure), the probability of success is the same for each trial (referred to asp),
and the random variable X is the number of trials required to get the first success. Which
of the following scenarios meets the requirements of a geometric setting?

A. A sack has 8 red dice and 9 green dice. I remove one die at a time (and don't replace it)
until I get my first red die. What's the probability I get a red die on the eighth draw 7

B. A market research firm hires operators to conduct telephone surveys. Going down an
alphabetical list of names in the telephone directory, a computer dials a telephone number
and the operator asks the respondent whether they have time to answer some questions.
What's the probability someone will answer yes by the fifth call?

C. There are 10 different prizes in boxes of Googily-Snaps. Prize four is the most valuable
among collectors. What's the probability that I'll get prize four without having to buy more
than four boxes?

D. Puff Pop Popcorn Company claims there will be fewer than 15 unpopped kernels in each
bag of their microwave popcorn. You count the number of kernels in a bag of popcorn, and
then pop the entire bag. You then eat the popcorn one kernel at a time starting at the top of
the bowl. What's the probability that you'll pick an unpopped kernel by the 15th pick'!

E. Suppose you've been to a game reserve where there are lots of different types of birds:
pigeons, robins, finches, woodpeckers, falcons, white owls, eagles, peacocks, and many
more. What's the probability you'll come across a falcon by the tenth bird you see'!

Answer C. Each trial is independent, each trial has the same probability of success or failure, and
you're interested in the probability of success within a certain number of trials.

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8. In a deck of 52 playing cards, there are 12 face cards (4 Jacks, 4 Queens, 4 Kings). If
you draw cards one at a time, replacing and shuffling the cards between draws, what's the
probability of getting your first face card on the third draw? Choose the best answer.

A. (1-f:j)3(f:j)

B. P(X = 1) + P(X 2) + P(X 3)

C. P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X 2) + P(X 3)

D. (1 - f:i )2( i3:i)

E. (1 - )2( )

Answer D. (1 1\ )2( f:i ).

The probability is given as P(X n) (1 - (p), where p is the
probability of success on each trial, and n is the number of trials.

9. Which of these represents the probability of getting doubles (getting the same number on
two dice) on or before the seventh roll of two six-sided dice?

A. geometpdf(l/6, 7)

B. P(X=l)+P(X 2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)+P(X=5)+P(X 6)+ =7)

C. (\0 ) (1 - 1/6) 52 (1/6)

D. (5/6) 0 (1/6) + 2(5/6) 1 (1/6) + 3(5/6)2(1/6) 1 + 4(5/6)3(1/6) 1

+5(5/6) 4 (1/6) 1 + 6(5/6)5(1/6) 1 + 7(5/6)6(1/6) 1

E. None of these

Answer B. P(X = l)+P(X 2)+P(X 3)+P(X 4)+P(X 5)+P(X 6)+P(X = 7).

This equals geometcdf(l /6, 7), which gives you the sum of the probabilities from l to 7.

10. If you roll two dice, what's the probability of rolling a seven (the numbers on the dice add
up to 7) on or before the eighth roJrl

A. .767

B. .083

C. .47

D. .049

E. .045

Answer A .. 767. You get .767 by using geometcdf(l/6,8). This is the same as adding the probabilities
from 1: = 1 to x = 8.

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11. If you flip two coins simultaneously, what's the probability you'll have to flip them four
times before the first occurrence of two heads?

A. .25

B. .11

C. .683

D. .188

E. .14

Answer B .. 11. On a TI-83 this is geometpdf(l/4,4 ), or the probability of getting a success on (but
not before) the fourth trial if the probability of success on each trial is 1/4.

12. As part of a promotional campaign, a gas station hands out game pieces to customers at a
rate of one per visit. Each piece has a letter or an exclamation point on it, and if you collect
ali seven game pieces they speii you win! If you;ve collected six of the seven game pieces,
and all you need is the letter w to get all seven, what's the probability you'll get your piece
on the fifth trip to the gas station? Assume there are equal numbers of each piece.

A. (1/7) + (6/7)(1/7) + (6/7)2(1/7) + (6/7)3(1/7) + (6/7) 4 (1/7)

B. 5(6/7) 4 (1/7)

C. (6/7) 4 (1/7)

D. (1/7) + (6/7)(1/7) + (6/7)2(1/7)

E. (1/7) + (6/7)(1/7) + (6/7) 2 (1/7) + (6/7) 3 (1/7) + (6/7) 4 (1/7) + (6/7) 5 (1/7)

Answer C. (6/7) 4 (1/7). This is the probability you'd get the piece on the fifth visit. The probability
r-
is given as ( 1 - p 1
(p), where n is the number of trials and pis the probability of success
on each trial.

13. Which statement best describes the meaning of the term average waiting-time?

A. The average number of successes out of n trials

B. The average of all the terms added until the first success is achieved

C. The average number of trials required to get the first success

D. The probability of getting one success on or before n trials

E. The average number of successes

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Answer C. the average number of trials required to get the first success. This is the expected value
for the distribution.

14. The following frequency plots represent observed frequency data gathered from probability
experiments. Which of these indicates an experiment in a geometric setting?

A.

B.

C.

mD.LJ.D DD

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D.

...- -
- ~

n
E.

rn .~ .... rn .. ~
Answer D. This is the plot with the higher frequencies on the left side, and lower frequencies on the
right side. Note that this doesn't look exactly like a plot of a geometric distribution. That's
because it's a plot of observed values, not theoretical ones. If you ran the experiment for a
large enough number of trials, you'd see a regular geometric distribution, with the highest
frequency at n = l. Since the probability for each successive n is a fraction of the previous
n, the probabilities will continue to get smaller as n gets larger.

15. A bag of candy has equal numbers of candies in eight colors: blue, red, brown, green,
yellow, orange, pink, and black. If you eat them one by one, what's the probability of
getting your first red candy on or before the fifth pick?

A. .547

B. .875

C. .607

D. .5512

E. .487

Answer E. .487. This is the probability of getting your first red candy on or before the fifth pick.
The probability of success, p, is 1/8, and so you add the probabilities for n = l to n = 5.
You can calculate this by using the geometric formula for each n and adding them all up,
or on your TI-83 calculator you can enter geometcdf(l/8,5).

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16. Jeff typically makes three out of nine attempted free throws. What's the average waiting-
time for Jeff to make his first basket, and what's the probability he'll make a basket on or
before the very last attempt within his average waiting-time?

A. 3, .70

B. 3, .33

C. 3, .15

D. 6, .94

E. 9, .97

Answer A. 3, .70. The expected value is 3 throws, which is 1/p, or TT3. The probability Jeff will
make a basket on or before the third try is .70. You can find this probability on your TT-83
calculator by entering geometcdf(l/3,3).

f SAU.Y FORTH Greg Howard and Craig MacIntosh

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