5.

4
1. Given P(C/1) = 0.6, P(U2) = 0.4, P(E\U1 ) = 0.3 , P(E\U2 ) = 0.2, find
a) P(U] jE) b) P(U2 |)
2. Given P(U1) = 0.2, P(U2) = 0.5, P(U3 ) = 0.3. P(E|U1) = 0.1, P(E|U2) = 0.2,
P(E|U3) = 0.05, find
a) P(U1|E) b) P(U2|E) c) P(U3|E)
3. The experiment is to choose at random either an urn or a box, each containing some
yellow and green marbles, and then to select a marble. The urn has 4 yellow and 6 green
marbles. The box has 7 yellow and 5 green marbles. Find the probability of each event.
a) The urn was chosen given that the marble is yellow.
b) The box was chosen given that the marble is green.
4. In order to measure the degree of visibility of an ad campaign, interviewers often ask
consumers if they can remember seeing certain ads. An advertising firm questioned 1000 TV
viewers and asked if they recalled seeing a particular advertisement. They were then asked if
they had brought the product recently. Of the 110 people who definitely remembered the -
commercial. 60 had bought the product recently. Of the 330 who vaguely remembered the
commercial 66 had bought, the product recently. Of the 560 who did not remember seeing the
commercial, 40 had bought, the product recently. Find the probability that a person definitely
remembered seeing the ad given that a person bought the product recently.
5. A shelf holds two boxes of ornaments. The blue box contains 7 good and 3 defective
ornaments; the white box contains 4 good ornaments and 1 defective ornaments.A box is
selected and one ornament is chosen from it. If the ornament is good, what is the probability
that the blue box was chosen?
6. City crime records show that 20% of all crimes are violent and 80% are nonviolent,
involving theft, and so on. Ninety percent of violent crimes are reported versus 70% of
nonviolent crimes If a crime in progress is reported to the police, what is the probability that the
crime is violent?
7. A company produces bolts at three factories A, B, and C. Factory A produces 40% of the
number of bolts, of which 0.1% are defective. Factory B produces 35%, of which 0.15% are
defective, and C produces 25%, of which 0.05% are defective. If a defective bolt is found among
the total output, what is the probability that it came from
a) factory A? b) factory B? c) factory C?
8. An insurance company classifies policyholders as either good (G), bad (B), or
questionable (Q). Suppose the probability of having an accident during a given time period is
0.02 for G drivers, 0.09 for B drivers, and 0.04 for Q drivers. If 57% of current policyholders are
G drivers, 23% are B, and 20% are Q, and an accident is reported, what is the probability that
the person who just had the accident is a good driver?
9. In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the women have their own cars.
Furthermore, 60% of the students are women. If a student is selected at random and has his/her
car, what is the probability that the student is a woman?
10. Females in a certain university constitute 60% of the freshman, 40% of the sophomore,
55% of the juniors, and 50% of the seniors. The school population is 30% freshmen, 25%
sophommores, 25% juniors, and 20% seniors. If a student chosen at random is a female, what
is the probability that the student is a sophomore?