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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Introduction
There has been a request to analyse the data. Using the existing data, the
analysis has been focused on the incidents of disease, the trends from the five-
week period (20/02 20/03/2017), distribution across all LGAs, and the impact of
people taking and not taking preventative measures. This analysis will be
concluded with recommendations and challenges faced in the analysis.
- Hypothesis testing
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Method
The raw data given was dense. It consisted of all the LGAs (City of Adelaide,
Adelaide Hills Council, City of Burnside, City of Campbelltown, City of Charles
Sturt, Town of Gawler, City of Holdfast Bay, City of Marion, City of Mitcham, City
of Norwood Payneham & St Peters, City of Onkaparinga, City of Playford, City of
Port Adelaide Enfield, City of Prospect, City of Salisbury, City of Tea Tree Gully,
City of Unley, Town of Walkerville, and City of West Torrens). It has information on
the number of sick people with and without preventative measures. It also has
information about the number of people disabled and dead. The temperatures
and ages of the confirmed sick people was also provided, which is excluded in
the analysis.
Data aggregation has been done. The distribution of sick people was clustered
into LGAs, preventative measures, and no preventative measures across the five-
week period. Dispersion of data was measured by calculating the central
tendencies (mean, median and mode), measures of spread (range, interquartile
range, and standard deviation). Calculations of the normal distribution of sick
people was calculated and presented. A comparison between sick people who
have and have not taken preventative measures was calculated and presented in
scatter plots, line graphs and bar graphs. Some general statistical information
(i.e. total healthy population, percentage of total average, percentage of total
sick people for five weeks) was gathered (see Error: Reference source not found).
Excel was used to create all my tables and representations. When aggregating
the data, all the disease data was put into one spreadsheet, from week one
(20/02) to week 5 (20/03). To filter the data further, I added a separate sheet to
put in the data required for the investigation the amount of people who got sick
with preventative and without preventative measures. Other sub- sheets that
could be made using the main sheet to show different representations. In the
end, a summary was made.
=AVERAGE This function takes all the data from the first to last piece that is
selected and returns the average of its arguments. Using this function makes
finding the mean more efficient because when calculated manually with lots of
data, mistakes can be made.
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
After calculating the mean standard deviation, a normal distribution graph can
be made. The data of the frequency of incidents is put as the x axis on a scatter
plot and the data for normal distribution on the y axis of the scatter plot.
The Empirical Rule tells you about what percentage of values are within a certain
range of the mean. These results are approximations only, and they only apply if
the data follow a normal distribution. In the case of the data given, the curves for
all graphs are positively skewed, meaning that the Empirical Rule cannot be
applied. However, the Empirical Rule is an important result in statistics because
the concept of going out about two standard deviations to get about 95% of the
values is one that is mentioned often with confidence intervals and hypothesis
tests.
Since the curves of all my graphs are positively skewed, it means that the mean
is greater than the median and the median is closer to the first quartile than to
the third quartile. For skewed distributions, the standard deviation gives no
information on the asymmetry. It is better to use the first and third quartiles (in
this case first quartile), since these will give some sense of the asymmetry of the
distribution. To calculate the quartiles, the QUARTILE function can be used:
=QUARTILE (array, quart) This function returns the quartile of a data set. The
array is used to take the array or cell range of numeric values for which you want
the quartile value; the quart indicates which value to return. In this case, the
quart is equal to three calculating the third quartile (75 th percentile).
Based on the aggregated data, analysis on the trend of disease and distribution
of disease in all LGAs was presented in graphs. When the data was examined in
detail, there were several inadequacies. Parameters that were not clearly defined
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
4
Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Discussion
In this section, the analysis of the epidemic is presented in four ways: (a) a
statistical summary table (b) total comparison of effect of the disease between
people who took preventative measures and those who have not taken
preventative measures, (c) distribution of case across the five-week period for
people who took preventative measures and those who have never taken
preventative measures, and (d) a snapshot of the incidence of the disease for
week four and five.
The statistical summary table indicated that total people who got sick during the
period of five week (20 February 20 of March 2017) were not up to one percent,
0,45. From the total people affected, 83 percent identified in week four and five.
Average of sick people who have taken presentative measures was 190 people,
and the most affected category is those without preventative measures, 959.
Categories Total %
Total healthy people 1,270,008
Total sick people 5,745 0.45%
Total Sick people weeks 4 & 5 4,780 83%
Total Mean Sick People Took Preventative Measures 190 3%
Total Mean of Sick people without Preventative Measures 959 17%
Figure 1.
Comparison of Disease Incidents in 19 LGAs With and Without Preventative Actions
2500
2188
2000
1672
1500
Frequency of Cases
1000
754 721
500
164 199
0 16
0 1 30
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
Week
For example, from the total sick people in week five, seventy five percent (75%)
were those without preventative measures and 100% in week one. Though there
are a signifiant amount of people sick regardless, we can conclude that
preventative measures are working.
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
The significant differences in the impact of the disease among the two categories
is further explained in the attempt to see the normal distribution of cases in
figures 2 and 3. There a clear distiction among the two.
Figure 2
Distribution of Confirmed Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20
0
0
0
0
0
Normal Distribtuion Scale 0
0
0
0
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Frequency of Incidents
If Figure 8 and Figure 12 are compared, we can see that figure 8 vaguely looks
like it is normally distributed. Figure 12 however is positively skewed like the rest
of the distribution curves.
When normal distribution curves were made for LGAs that took preventative
measures or no preventative measures for 5 weeks, we can see that the
distribution is not normal it is positively skewed. This shows that the mean is
greater than the median and the median is closer to the first quartile. In this
case, the standard deviation gives no information about the assymetry of the
curve. In this case, the first quartile is used to give some sense of the assymetry
of the distribution.
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 3
istrubution of Sick People WIth Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017)
0
0
0
0
Normal Distribution Scale 0
0
0
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Frequency of Incidents
An emphasis was put on weeks four and five because during those weeks,
vaccines were introduced.
Incubation period
Hypothesis testing
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Conclusion
What is your overall key message, linked to the work throughout your report?
Give a brief summation of key information from each section, including final
recommendations.
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
References List
Total %
Total healthy 1270008
Total sick 5745 0.45%
Total Sick Weeks 4 & 5 4780 0.38%
Total Mean Preventative Measures 190.20 3%
Total Mean No Preventative
Measures 958.80 17%
parameters
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
1.4
1.2
0.8
Normal Distribution
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
40.4 40.6 40.8 41 41.2 41.4 41.6 41.8 42
Temperatures
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 3 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 1 (20/02/2017)
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency of Incidents
Figure 4 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 2 (27/02/2017)
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Frequency of Incidents
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 5 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 3 (06/03/2017)
Frequency of Incidents
Figure 6 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 4 (13/03/2017)
Frequncy of Incidents
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 7 - Distribution of Number of Sick People Without Preventative Actions Week 5 (20/03/2017)
0.01
0.01
0
Normal Distribution Scale
0
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Frequency of Incidents
Figure 8 - Frequency Distribution of Confirmed Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs
in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017)
ution of Confirmed Sick People Without Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/
0
0
0
0
0
Normal Distribtuion Scale 0
0
0
0
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Frequency of Incidents
4
Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 9 - Distribution of Number of Sick People With Preventative Actions Week 3 (06/03/2017)
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
Normal Distribution Scale 0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Frequency of Incidents
Figure 10 - Distribution of Number of Sick People With Preventative Actions Week 4 (13/03/2017)
0.03
0.03
0.02
Normal Distribution Scale 0.02
0.01
0.01
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Frequency of Incidents
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 11 - Distribution of Number of Sick People With Preventative Actions Week 5 (20/03/2017)
0.01
0.01
0.01
Normal Distribution Scale 0.01
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Frequency of Incidents
Figure 12 - Frequency Distribution of Sick People With Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide
Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20/03/2017)
Distrubution of Sick People WIth Preventative Actions in 19 LGAs in Adelaide Within 5 Weeks (20/02 - 20
0
0
0
0
Normal Distribution Scale 0
0
0
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Frequency of Incidents
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 13 - Average Amount of People Sick After 5 Weeks Without Preventative Actions
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
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Figure 16 - Average Number of Sick People After 5 Weeks With Preventative Actions
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 19 - Comparison of Sick People per LGA With Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks
Comparison of Sick People per LGA With Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks
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Frequency of Sick People 20
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Figure 20 - Comparison of Sick People per LGA Without Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks
Comparison of Sick People per LGA Without Preventative Actions Within 5 Weeks
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Frequency of Sick People 50
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Eugenia Camnahas Going Viral: Understanding Disease Maths Folio SACE ID:
570070T
Figure 21 - Comparison of Disease Incidents in 19 LGAs With and Without Preventative Actions
Week Number
Figure 22 - Total Number of People Who Have and Haven't Taken Preventative Measures During
Weeks 4 & 5
Total Number of People Who Have and Haven't Taken Preventative Measures During Weeks 4 & 5
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Number of People 100
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