VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN MA (n = 3 bulan)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (n = 3) (n = 3) (n = 3)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440
Mar 3 460
Apr 4 510 450 -60 -
Mei 5 520 470 -50 10
Jun 6 495 497 2 52
Jul 7 475 508 33 31
Agst 8 560 497 -63 96
Sept 9 510 510 0 63 MR bar = 34.83
Okt 10 520 515 -5 5 UCL = 92.66
Nov 11 540 530 -10 5 LCL = -92.66
Des 12 550 523 -27 17 A =+/- 61.65
Jumlah 279 B = +/- 30.99
 MR Chart MA (n = 3)

150

100
(Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50
UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Periode (t)
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN MA (n = 4 bulan)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (n = 4) (n = 4) (n = 4)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440
Mar 3 460
Apr 4 510
Mei 5 520 465 -55 -
Jun 6 495 483 -13 43
Jul 7 475 496 21 34
Agst 8 560 500 -60 81
Sept 9 510 513 3 63 MR bar = 36.07
Okt 10 520 510 -10 13 UCL = 95.95
Nov 11 540 516 -24 14 LCL = -95.95
Des 12 550 533 -18 6 A = +/- 63.85
Jumlah 253 B = +/- 32.10
 MR Chart MA (n = 4)

150

100
(Ft -
At)
50
Ft - At

UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B
-50 A
B

-100

-150
Bulan
JANGAN DIPRINT

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

-60 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
-50 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
2 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
33 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
-63 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
0 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
-5 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
-10 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99
-27 92.66 -92.66 61.65 30.99 -61.65 -30.99

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

-55 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
-13 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
21 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
-60 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
3 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
-10 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
-24 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
-18 95.95 -95.95 63.85 32.10 -63.85 -32.10
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN DMA (n = 3 bulan)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (n = 3) (n = 3) (n = 3)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440
Mar 3 460
Apr 4 510
Mei 5 520
Jun 6 495 546 51 -
Jul 7 475 542 67 16
Agst 8 560 489 -71 138
Sept 9 510 520 10 81 MR bar = 46.17
Okt 10 520 531 11 1 UCL = 122.80
Nov 11 540 553 13 2 LCL = -122.80
Des 12 550 524 -26 39 A =+/- 81.72
Jumlah 277 B = +/- 41.09
 MR Chart DMA (n = 3)

150

100 (Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN DMA (n = 4 bulan)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (n = 4) (n = 4) (n = 4)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440
Mar 3 460
Apr 4 510
Mei 5 520
Jun 6 495
Jul 7 475
Agst 8 560 523 -37 -
Sept 9 510 537 27 64 MR bar = 31
Okt 10 520 519 -1 28 UCL = 82.46
Nov 11 540 527 -13 12 LCL = -82.46
Des 12 550 557 7 20 A = +/- 54.87
Jumlah 124 B = +/- 27.59
 MR Chart DMA (n = 4)

100
80
60 (Ft -
At)
40
Ft - At

UCL
20
LCL
0 A
-20 1 2 3 4 5 B
-40 A
-60 B

-80
-100
Bulan
JANGAN DIPRINT

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

51 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09
67 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09
-71 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09
10 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09
11 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09
13 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09
-26 122.8 -122.8 81.72 41.09 -81.72 -41.09

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

-37 82.46 -82.46 54.87 27.59 -54.87 -27.59
27 82.46 -82.46 54.87 27.59 -54.87 -27.59
-1 82.46 -82.46 54.87 27.59 -54.87 -27.59
-13 82.46 -82.46 54.87 27.59 -54.87 -27.59
7 82.46 -82.46 54.87 27.59 -54.87 -27.59
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN WMA (n = 3 bulan)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (n = 3) (n = 3) (n = 3)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440
Mar 3 460
Apr 4 510 452 -58 -
Mei 5 520 481 -39 19
Jun 6 495 505 10 49
Jul 7 475 506 31 21
Agst 8 560 490 -70 101
Sept 9 510 522 12 82 MR bar = 38.25
Okt 10 520 518 -2 14 UCL = 101.75
Nov 11 540 525 -15 13 LCL = -101.75
Des 12 550 528 -22 7 A =+/- 67.70
Jumlah 306 B = +/- 34.04
 MR Chart WMA (n = 3)

150

100
(Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN WMA (n = 4 bulan)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (n = 4) (n = 4) (n = 4)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440
Mar 3 460
Apr 4 510
Mei 5 520 475 -45 -
Jun 6 495 497 2 47
Jul 7 475 502 27 25
Agst 8 560 494 -66 93
Sept 9 510 518 8 74 MR bar = 38.14
Okt 10 520 517 -3 11 UCL = 101.46
Nov 11 540 521 -19 16 LCL = -101.46
Des 12 550 530 -20 1 A = +/- 67.51
Jumlah 267 B = +/- 33.95
 MR Chart WMA (n = 4)

150

100
(Ft -
Ft - At

At)
50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan
JANGAN DIPRINT

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

-58 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
-39 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
10 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
31 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
-70 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
12 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
-2 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
-15 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04
-22 101.75 -101.75 67.7 34.04 -67.7 -34.04

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

-45 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
2 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
27 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
-66 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
 8 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
-3 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
-19 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95
-20 101.46 -101.46 67.51 33.95 -67.51 -33.95

38.25 67.7025 0 0
101.745 34.0425 0 0
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN SES (alpha = 0.5)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (alpha=0.5) (alpha=0.5) (alpha=0.5)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440 450 10 -
Mar 3 460 445 -15 25
Apr 4 510 453 -57 42
Mei 5 520 481 -39 18
Jun 6 495 501 6 45
Jul 7 475 498 23 17
Agst 8 560 486 -74 97
Sept 9 510 523 13 87 MR bar = 36.70
Okt 10 520 517 -3 16 UCL = 97.62
Nov 11 540 518 -22 19 LCL = -97.62
Des 12 550 529 -21 1 A =+/- 64.96
Jumlah 367 B = +/- 32.66
 MR Chart SES (alpha = 0.5)

150

100 (Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN SES (alpha = 0.4)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (alpha=0.4) (alpha=0.4) (alpha=0.4)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440 450 10 -
Mar 3 460 446 -14 24
Apr 4 510 452 -58 44
Mei 5 520 475 -45 13
Jun 6 495 493 -2 43
Jul 7 475 494 19 21
Agst 8 560 486 -74 93
Sept 9 510 516 6 80 MR bar = 34.80
Okt 10 520 513 -7 13 UCL = 92.57
Nov 11 540 516 -24 17 LCL = -92.57
Des 12 550 526 -24 0 A = +/- 61.59
Jumlah 348 B = +/- 30.97
 MR Chart SES (alpha = 0.4)

150

100
(Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan
JANGAN DIPRINT

(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B

10 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-15 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-57 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-39 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
6 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
23 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-74 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
13 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-3 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-22 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
-21 97.62 -97.62 64.96 32.66 -64.96 -32.66
(Ft - At) UCL LCL A B A B
10 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
-14 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
-58 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
-45 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
 -2 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
19 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
-74 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
6 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
-7 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
-24 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
(Ft -
At) -24 92.57 -92.57 61.59 30.97 -61.59 -30.97
UCL
LCL
A
9 10 11 B
A
B
 (Ft -
At)
UCL
LCL
A
9 10 11 B
A
B
VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN DES (alpha = 0.5)

Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR
Bulan t Aktual (alpha=0.5) (alpha=0.5) (alpha=0.5)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440 450 10 -
Mar 3 460 440 -20 30
Apr 4 510 458 -52 32
Mei 5 520 513 -7 45
Jun 6 495 536 41 48
Jul 7 475 513 38 3
Agst 8 560 482 -78 116
Sept 9 510 558 48 126 MR bar = 47.20
Okt 10 520 527 7 41 UCL = 125.55
Nov 11 540 525 -15 22 LCL = -125.55
Des 12 550 544 -6 9 A =+/- 83.54
Jumlah 472 B = +/- 42.01

MR Chart DES (alpha = 0.5)

150

100 (Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan

VERIFIKASI MODEL PERAMALAN DES (alpha = 0.4)

Bulan t Permintaan Peramalan ( Ft - At ) MR

Aktual (alpha=0.4) (alpha=0.4) (alpha=0.4)
At Ft
Jan 1 450
Feb 2 440 450 10 -
Mar 3 460 442 -18 28
Apr 4 510 455 -55 37
Mei 5 520 500 -20 35
Jun 6 495 526 31 51
Jul 7 475 515 40 9
Agst 8 560 491 -69 109
Sept 9 510 548 38 107 MR bar = 42.90
Okt 10 520 531 11 27 UCL = 114.11
Nov 11 540 529 -11 22 LCL = -114.11
Des 12 550 543 -7 4 A = +/- 75.93
Jumlah 429 B = +/- 38.18

MR Chart DES (alpha = 0.4)

150

100
(Ft -
At)
Ft - At

50 UCL
LCL
0 A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 B
-50 A
B
-100

-150
Bulan