Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON JULY 22

EUR/USD: (1.2968) New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph: last target at 1.3032).

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.2971, 1.2975, 1.2968, 1.2968, -0.0004)

HOURLY CHARTS 1.3008 1.305
1.300
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723
1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.2454 1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.2110
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190

1.1876 1.185
1.180
24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July
New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph) and above daily channel top off Dec high.
Above channel off 1.1876 (see graph) but now back below the daily Flag off year low (bottom at 1.2990 today).
Support area at 1.2927(reaction low hourly), with next levels at 1.2902/ .2898 (daily Short Term Moving Aver-
age↑/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of 1.2871 (current week low): ideal area to stay above to keep current bet-
ter tone for €.
If unable to hold, next levels at 1.2848 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.2778/ .2768 (break-up daily/ weekly enve-
lope bottom), where pause favored.
Resistance at 1.2990/ .2992 (see above/ current week high), with next levels at 1.3008 (current new recovery
high off year low), ahead of 1.3032 (see above) and 1.3059 (daily envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3065/ .3075 (daily Bollinger top/ 61.8% 1.3819 to 1.1876), ahead of 1.3095 (May 10
high + modified daily Standard Error band top): tough on 1st tests, amid overextended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.2927 (see above) 1.2990/ .2992 (see above/ current week high)
1.2902/ .2898 (daily ST MA↑/ daily envelope bottom ) 1.3008/ .3032 (current new recovery high/ see above)

1.2871/ .2848 (current week low/ break-up hourly) 1.3059/ .3065 (daily envelope top/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (86.98) New year low but currently back in channel off 94.99 (see graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (87.05, 87.06, 86.97, 86.97, -0.09)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15

89.0

88.5

88.0

87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5

86.27
86.0

24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New year low scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.45 today) but currently back in channel
off 94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at .87.23/ .24 (current week high + breakdown daily/ weekly envelope top + daily Short Term Moving
Average↓), with next levels at 87.58/ 87.77 (reaction high hourly/ weekly Short Term Moving Average↓ + daily
Medium Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 88.18/ 88.29 (daily Bollinger midline/ reaction high hourly) and 89.32 (daily Downtrendline
off 94.99): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 86.66 (reaction low hourly), with next levels at 86.45 (current week low + weekly Bollinger
bottom), ahead of 86.41/ 86.27 (daily Bollinger bottom/ current new year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 86.06/ 85.94 (monthly daily envelope bottom/ daily envelope bottom): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
87.23/.24 (see above/ weekly envelope top + daily ST
86.66 (see above)
MA↓)
86.45/ .41 (current week low + weekly Bollinger bottom/ 87.58/ .77 (see above/ weekly ST MA↓ + daily MT
daily Bollinger bottom) MA↓)
86.27/ 86.06 (new year low monthly envelope bottom) 88.18/ .29 (daily Bollinger midline/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8498) Rebound off new year low tested channel top off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8494, 0.8499, 0.8491, 0.8497, +0.0004)

.8532
0.855

0.850

0.845
.8419

.8382 0.840

0.835

0.830

0.825

.8210 0.820

.8180
0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low broke daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8336 today) and tested channel top off
.8810 with 2nd target off .8382 at .8554) having been approached.

1st Support area at .8491 (reaction hourly), with next levels at .8465 (reaction low hourly + daily envelope bot-
tom), ahead of .8432/ .8425 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ current week low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8418 (break-up hourly), ahead of .8398/ .8390 (break-up weekly/ hourly): tough on 1st
attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8508 (today’s high?),with next levels at .8528/ .8532 (daily Bollinger top/ current recovery
high off year low) and .8534 (weekly envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8554/ .8558 (see above + daily envelope top/ modified daily Standard error band top)
and .8575 (daily Starc top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8491 (see above) .8508/ .8528 (see above/ daily Bollinger top )

.8532/ .8534 (current recovery high off year low/ weekly

.8465 (see above + daily envelope bottom)
envelope top)

.8554/ .8575 (see above + daily envelope top/ daily Starc

.8432/ .8425 (daily ST MA↑/ current week low)
top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (112.92) Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43 (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (112.89, 112.93, 112.77, 112.90, -0.01)
114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0
108.83
108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

21 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43 (see graph): Resistance at 113.07/ .15 (current week high +
daily envelope top/ weeky envelope top), with next levels at 113.40/ .43 (current recovery high off year low/ June
21 high + neckline daily Double bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 113.68 (23.6% year high to 107.30), ahead of 113.95 (daily Bollinger top) and 114.16
(June 03 high).
114.40/ .50 = May 21 high/ 3rd target off 110.90: see graph: tough on 1st attempts

1st Support area at 112.13 (reaction low hourly), ahead of 111.78 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑) and

111.43/ .35 (current week low/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 111.15/ .09 (break-up hourly/ daily Long Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 111.00 (daily

Bollinger midline): tough on 1st tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

112.31 (see above) 113.07/ .15 (current week high + daily envelope top/
weekly envelope top)
113.40/ .43 (current recovery high off year low/ June
111.78 (daily MT MA↑)
21 high + see above)

111.43/ .35 (current week low/ daily envelope bottom) 113.68/ .95 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Tuesday, July 20, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

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accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5