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 Pablo Gerchunoff
Lucas Llach

Un siglo de polticas econmicas
argentinas

emece

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 334 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

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338 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y El. DESENCANTO

el capital extranjero debe tomarse como un complemento y no como factor

determinante e irreemplazable del desarrollo.'

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OTRO GOLPE DE SUERTE

Trminos del intercambio externo , 1960=100


160.0

150.0
140.0


130.0
120.0

110.0

100.0
90.0

80.0
70.0
60.0 ' 1--r-+
o v LO m o N a io m o N v LO
v v v v a v^ v1 Un Ln Ln
m m m m m m m m m m m m
io io io
m
LO
m m m m



Fuente: apndice estadstico.




LOS SOCIOS SOCIALISTAS
Exportacin a pases socialistas
como % de las exportaciones argentinas

8

16

14

12

10

8
6
4

2

o
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Fuente: Di Tella (1983).

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 VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 343

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 VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 345

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 348 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

UN CUADRO DESMEJORADO
Indicadores econmicos durante el peronismo



14 -r 200

180
12 +
160
1 0+ 140

120
8+
100
6+ 80

4+ 60

40
2+
20
t r-^
0 o
1973 1974 1975
Crecimiento ( escala izquierda)
Inflacin ( escala derecha)
Dficit del sector pblico ( escala izquierda)
Fuente : apndice estadstico.

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 VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 355

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el caos sembrado por el gobierno marxista de Allende solamente aceler los

cambios socializantes graduales que se fueron introduciendo en Chile ininte-
rrumpidamente desde mediados de la dcada del 30.8

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DINERO BARATO
Tasa de inters activa, nominal y real, antes de 1977













-Tasa nominal activa de inters, anual

-Inflacin mayorista anual

-Tasa de inters real anual

Fuente: datos provistos por Carlos Winograd.

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 360

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La actual situacin financiera es tpica de un ajuste transitorio debido, en

gran medida, a la sobreestimacin por parte de los empresarios de la tasa
de inflacin.9

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DIVERGENCIA
Tasas trimestrales de inflacin local e internacional
y de devaluacin


------ Ta,a de deoalaaaln

----Tosa de Intlac- ote,mmonal

-Tasa de aeca daoen 1 tasa de ITadanmematlooal
-in0ndon local minotlsta
-Inlbcic n local _,_'do






--------------- -----------------------
97911

Fuente : Canitrot ( 1981).

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r VRTIGO ECONMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 367

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 368

LEJOS DEL MUNDO
Comercio argentino como porcentaje de su PBI

y del comercio mundial



3.000

.500
2.000

1.500
1.000

0.500
0.0
0.000
m m m m m m v un

m m m m m Lo
m m m m m m

-Comercio exterior como % del P3l (escala izquierda)
Comercio argentino como % del comercio mundial (escala derecha)

Fuente: Maddison (1995) y apndice estadstico,

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 370 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO

ABAJO EL ARANCEL
Evolucin de la estructura arancelaria bajo Martnez de Hoz




Arancel
o mas ae 100%
70%-100%


-40%-70%

o 10%- 20%

0l%-10%

.o%

08/78

Fuente: De Pablo (1987).

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CUANDO EL TIPO DE CAMBIO IMPORTA

Exportaciones , i mportaciones y tipo de cambio real


12000.0 T 10000
10000.0

90.00

8000.0 80.00
6000.0 70.00


4000.0 60,00

2000.0 50.00
0.0
40.00
1 976 1 977 1 978 1 979 1 980
O Exportaciones
~Importaciones
0 Tipo de cambio real deflactado por IPM (1976=100)

Fuente: Winograd (1984) y apndice estadstico.

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LAS CUENTAS DEL PROCESO
Gastos e ingresos de la administracin central , como % del PBI


30 r


25 +

20 +
Los dueos de pequeos ahorros sufren silenciosamente, como la experien-
cia muestra, estas enormes depredaciones. cuando habran derribado a un go-
15 + bierno que les hubiese quitado una fraccin de ese monto por medios ms de-
liberados pero ms justos.10
1 0+

5

o
n r n ro m m

o m m m m m m
Ingresos (% del PBI ) Gastos ( % del PSI)

Fuente: base de datos propia.

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UN PROCESO NEGATIVO
Crecimiento e inflacin en 1973-83

CRECIMIENTO CERO
La Argentina y el mundo en 1973-83

Crecimiento - Inflacin minorista

Fuente: apndice estadistico.

o PBI per capita 1e1973, en dlares de 1990
o PBI per capas de 1983. en dlares de 1990

PBI per capita d e i 973, en dlares de 1990
PBI por Capea de 1983, en dlares de 1990



Europa: Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia e Italia.
NICS: Taiwn, Tailandia y Corea del Sur,
Mundo: muestra de 56 paises de Maddison (1995).
Fuente: Maddison (1995).

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El ciclo de la ilusin
y el desencanto
Un siglo de polticas econmicas
argentinas

emec

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386 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y El. DESENCANTO

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LA DCADA PERDIDA
Crecimiento comparado de la Argentina y otros pases

de Amrica latina


10000.0
9000.0

-1,52% anual
8000.0

7000.0

6000.0 -0.01% anual
5000.0
4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
Argentina
6 grandes de
Amrica latina

o PBI per cpita en 1982 0P81 per cpita en 1989

'Se trata de Brasil , Colombia, Chile, Mxico, Per y Venezuela

Fuente: Maddison (1995).

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secundario.

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392 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y F.I. DESENCANTO

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 395
LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989)

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y el. DtFcll, GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 403

de inflacin. Por otro lado. la inflacin acumulada desdejunio (le 1985 haba

meado presiones en el mercado de trabajo y haba deteriorado un poco el ni-
vel real de las tarifas pblicas y el tipo de cambio.'

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yo soy monetarista, estructura!ista y todo lo que sea necesario para bajar la
inflacin, y si hay que recurrir a la macumba, tambin .7











AUSTRAL, ESTABILIZACIN Y DESPUS
Tasas mensuales de inflacin minorista








15+

10+

5+

01
Lo uf) u') In ll7 !n co co co Co

aJ oJ m (A m OJ OJ Co OJ N C
> 3 > W W Co N OJ
w < Z W w Z w C
N f)
(n

Fuente: Machinea (1989),

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1 LA DEMOCRACIA 1' EL DIFCIL GOI31ERN0... (1983-1989) 409

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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 411

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 416

laboral que impeda toda influencia del gobierno en la determinacin de

salarios, exceptuando obviamente los del sector pblico.

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 LA DEMOCRACIA Y EI, DIFICIL. GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 419

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El ciclo de la ilusin
y el desencanto
Un siglo de polticas econmicas
argentinas

emece

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 GRANDES EXPECrArlvkS, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 423

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Las tendencias de la economa internacional durante los aos 90
pueden entenderse , desde una perspectiva histrica, como una prolonga-

cin y una intensificacin de las que venan manifestndose desde la
posguerra . El proceso de interrelacin creciente entre los varios merca-

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 427
GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... (1989-2001)

HISTORIA Y PREHISTORIA DE LA GLOBALIZACIN
Valor del comercio y la produccin mundiales

(escala logartmica , 1870=100)
















Comercio


Fuente: Maddison (1995).

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 428 G RA N DES... (1989-2001) 429
EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIN Y EL DESENCANTO GRANDES E xPECTAnvAS,

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GRANDES EXPECTATIV AS, G RANDES... (1989-2001) 433

DE LA HIPERINFLACIN A LA INFLACIN CERO

Variacin porcentual anual de los ndices de precios


1980-88 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1997

Precios al consumidor 287 4.924 1.344 84
17,5 7,4 3,9 1,6 0,1 0,3
Precios mayoristas 293 5.383 798 57 3,1 0,1 3 5,8

2,1 -0,9

Fuente: Lach (1997).

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437

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 444 445

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 446
GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... ( 1989-2001) 447

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 448
EL CICLO DE LA ILUSION Y EL DESENCANTO

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U GRANDES ExNCCTATtv,as, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 451

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 452
GRA NDES EXPECLanvAS,GRANDES... (1989-2001) 453

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 GRANDES ExpEcTATwAS,GRANDES...(1989-2001) 455

UN PROBLEMA DE PROPORCIONES
Deuda externa como porcentaje de las exportaciones,
pases seleccionados (2000)

700%

600%

500%

400%

3 00%

200%

1 00%

0%



Fuente: estadsticas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y de la Organizacin Mundial de Comercio.

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