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Female engineer Farah Al Basha oversees construction work at Jordans sprawling Zaatari refugee camp. Photo: Caroline Gluck/Oxfam
Jordan and Lebanon collectively make up less than one percent of the worlds economy, but host
around 20 percent of the worlds refugees. Donors have recognized the scale of the challenges
that this presents and acknowledged that humanitarian assistance must be supplemented with
multi-year development support. This briefing note presents a preview of key findings from
Oxfam-commissioned research in Lebanon and Jordan and concludes that for assistance to
succeed in its aim of helping both refugees and poor host communities there is a need for
increased democratic ownership, transparency and accountability in donor and government aid
policies.
1 INTRODUCTION
Jordan and Lebanon, with respective populations of approximately 9.5 1
and 5.8 million, 2 collectively make up less than one percent 3 of the
worlds economy. Yet Jordan and Lebanon currently host 4,342,076
registered refugees 4 thats the equivalent of around 20 percent of the
total number of the refugees globally. 5 Nearly two million of these
refugees have arrived in the last six years alone, fleeing violence in
Syria. 6 The sheer scale and speed of the Syria refugee crisis has put
increased stress on already weak government services in Lebanon and
Jordan and added pressure to already limited government revenues.
National and local authorities are struggling to meet the needs of
communities who have seen significant increases in their populations,
some of which have increased by as much as 100 percent. But long
before the crisis in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon both faced a number of
development challenges high unemployment rates, poverty,
governance issues, corruption, and inequality, including stark gender
disparities. Although these challenges long predate conflict in Syria, the
refugee crisis has exacerbated the situation.
By the end of 2015, the total estimated cost of the Syria crisis on the
Lebanese economy was $7.5bn, of which $1.1bn was increased
7
expenditure due to the higher demand for public services. The World Bank
estimates that hosting over 630,000 registered Syrian refugees costs
8
Jordan over $2.5bn a year, part of which is attributed to subsidized
services to refugees. Oxfam has calculated that if Jordan were treated as a
traditional donor, it would have contributed the equivalent of nearly 6,000
percent of its fair share to the refugee response based on the size of its
9
gross national income (GNI).
2
Oxfam has worked with two regional research institutes, the Lebanese
Center for Policy Studies (LCPS) and the Phenix Center, to determine
how regional governments and donors can take stock of lessons from the
past and make aid to Lebanon and Jordan more effective. Primary and
secondary data were collected by both institutes through desk research;
key informant interviews 12 with donor agencies, aid-recipient public
institutions and sectoral experts, and former government officials; and
focus group discussions with civil society representatives.
13
Box 2: Aid Effectiveness Principles
3
Box 3: London conference commitments
In April 2016, the World Bank, with the UN and the Islamic Development
Bank, announced a new MENA facility, 19 supported by a package of
more than $1bn including $141m in grants, $1bn in soft loans, and
$500m in guarantees. Using what has been termed blended finance, 20
the facility engages the private sector and will allow multilateral
development banks to increase financing to Jordan and Lebanon and
help leverage additional financing in the coming years. This facility has
now expanded its original scope to become a global facility that includes
more middle income countries which are particularly impacted by
displacement. 21 The facility is especially important considering Jordan
and Lebanon are no longer eligible for the same amount of concessional
financing since graduating from lower-middle income status to upper-
middle income countries. These new financing opportunities are coupled
with the possibility of loosened trade regulations that open preferential
access to markets in Europe as a result of recent compacts with the
EU. 22
The basis of the aid effectiveness principles were defined in the Paris
Declaration on Aid Effectiveness in 2005 and were subsequently
expanded in the Accra Agenda for Action in 2008, and a series of the
conferences that led to the Busan Partnership for Effective Development
Cooperation 23 in 2011. This expanded the principle of local ownership to
emphasize the role of local civil society and the importance of
democratic ownership in enhancing aid effectiveness. For these new
funding opportunities for Lebanon and Jordan to be translated into
poverty alleviation, including for refugees, these principles must be
adopted.
Oxfam has analyzed current and past aid flows to Lebanon and Jordan
looking at five key areas of aid effectiveness: predictability; addressing
pre-existing structural problems; transparency; alignment with national
plans; and involvement of civil society and marginalized groups, such as
refugees.
4
2 KEY FINDINGS
1. Funding should be predictable to be more effective
Jordans public debt has skyrocketed in recent years as it has dealt with
the broad impacts of conflicts in Iraq and Syria, the associated massive
refugee influxes, and the countrys growing dependence on lenders has
made it increasingly vulnerable to external influence. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) has intervened several times in the past three
decades to reduce the public deficit and promote inclusive growth, and
has recently announced new loans for Jordan aimed at helping the
country host large numbers of Syrian refugees and weather the severe
economic shocks attributed to increased instability in the region. 27 Past
interventions, which have been paired with trade liberalization and
austerity measures, may have inadvertently done the opposite to stated
goals, however. Local experts suggest that IMF loans, coupled with the
required austerity measures, were one of the leading causes of
unemployment between 1990 and 2005. 28 Cuts in expenditures and the
removal of subsidies, which have contributed to the decrease in fiscal
deficit, have disproportionately impacted the most vulnerable which,
5
without a visible increase in other services and support, may have
undermined trust and confidence in government institutions and policies.
Lebanons public debt steadily increased from 2005 to 2016 from $39bn
to $75bn 29 and its debt has more recently increased to 144 percent of
GDP according to the IMF. 30 Despite regional and local political and
security turmoil resulting from the Syria crisis and the political paralysis
which decreased foreign trade, tourism, investment and consumption, the
Lebanese real annual growth rate of 2015 was approximately one
percent according to the World Bank. 31 Lebanons outlook has been
unfavourable and the economys resilience relies on its Central Banks
policies that have maintained financial stability. Extending assistance to
Lebanon in the form of loans rather than grants risks undermining this
financial stability rather than reaching the intended aim of promoting
development, and consequently economic growth and independence.
6
4. Where aid disbursements align with a national vision or strategy
they are more effective
7
5. Local civil society, communities and marginal groups (including
refugees) have not been adequately consulted
While both Jordan and Lebanon fall short of meaningfully engaging civil
society in determining priorities and shaping development policies,
refugees in both countries are particularly marginalized. Though much of
new aid to Jordan and Lebanon is meant to help both countries cope with
the refugee crisis, refugees from Syria and host communities alike still
face challenges. Many refugees are unable to register with the UN and
maintain the legal right to stay in the country, let alone participate in
determining humanitarian and development priorities and policies.
8
3 CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
New funds, including development financing, pledged to Jordan and
Lebanon at international summits bring new opportunities to help
vulnerable communities in Jordan and Lebanon, including refugees, in a
new and potentially more sustainable way. Similarly, the new global
financing facility created by the World Bank to leverage more funds for
refugee hosting countries though engaging the private sector presents
another opportunity to reduce poverty. However if the governments of
Jordan and Lebanon are to meaningfully take advantage of these
opportunities, both they and donors need to take important steps to
ensure the aid effectiveness principles are adhered to, particularly
transparency, accountability, and meaningful consultation of civil society
and marginalized groups, including women and refugees.
Recommendations
Donors and international financing institutions should:
Commit to disbursing aid on at least a three to six year rolling basis,
ideally a six year basis, and make allocations of aid by country over
this time period.
Where possible, ensure long-term aid is allocated and aligned with
national development plans and priorities, which in turn link up and
contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). If a national
strategy does not exist, work with the relevant ministry to develop a
national strategy that is inclusive and brings together priorities of
national and local authorities, civil society, and local communities.
Prioritize scaling up funding through grants or concessionary financing
over loans to avoid contributing to unsustainable levels of national
debt.
Refrain from attaching economic policy conditions to the aid provided
that will disproportionately impact the poor or refugee communities,
including cuts in essential subsidized services.
Ensure domestic accountability mechanisms are enacted and
achievable milestones are set by providing sufficient technical and
financial support.
Make direct budget support and other financing conditional on
developing robust domestic accountability mechanisms for monitoring
aid effectiveness, including strengthening civil society oversight of aid
negotiations, provision, and budget allocation. These mechanisms
should include special provisions to include communities outside the
capital as well as representation from women, refugees, and other
marginalized groups.
9
Support an enabling environment for civil society within aid recipient
countries so that civil society has the ability to advocate and engage
with their governments. This could include providing more predictable
core support to civil society groups, parliamentarians and media
organizations to hold government actors to account.
Actively and meaningfully consult with civil society, refugees and other
vulnerable groups early and throughout various stages of the
financing and ensure that there is proactive disclosure of information
about their financing and plans.
10
Develop mutual accountability mechanisms, where both parties are
held accountable for the outcomes of the intervention and the
allocation of aid resources.
Take measures to ensure development effectiveness principles are
applied to all investment leveraged from aid and that ultimately the
public sector is not undermined but rather strengthened by these
initiatives.
11
NOTES
All URLs were last accessed April 2017.
1 M. Ghazal (2016, January 30). Population stands at around 9.5 million, including 2.9 million
guests. The Jordan Times. http://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/population-stands-around-95-
million-including-29-million-guests
2 World Bank data for Lebanon (2015). http://data.worldbank.org/country/lebanon
3 Calculations based on data from the World Bank World Development Indicators database.
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf
4 In these calculations, Oxfam has followed the UNs practice of including refugees registered both
by UNHCR and the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), set up in 1949 to provide help for
Palestinian refugees, who it defines as people who lost both home and means of livelihood as a
result of the 1948 conflict, and the descendants of Palestinian male refugees.
5 Calculated based on the figures in Oxfam (2016). A Poor Welcome from the Worlds Wealthy.
http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/a-poor-welcome-from-the-worlds-wealthy-616919
6 Based on figures of registered Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon available at UNHCRs
Syrian Regional Refugee Response Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal.
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php
7 World Bank (2015). Lebanon Promoting Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity: A
Systematic Country Diagnostic. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
698161468179049613/Lebanon-Promoting-poverty-reduction-and-shared-prosperity-a-
systematic-country-diagnostic
8 World Bank (2016, 3 February). Economic Effects of War and Peace in the Middle East and
North Africa. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/02/03/economic-effects-of-
war-and-peace-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa
9 C. Baudot and D. Gorevan (2015). Solidarity with Syrians: Action needed on aid, refuge, and to
end the bloodshed. https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bn-
solidarity-with-syrians-fair-shares-071015-en.pdf
10 For more information on social protection policies, please see: N. Kukrety and I. Fares (2016).
Poverty, Inequality, and Social Protection in Lebanon. https://www.oxfam.org/sites
/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/rr-poverty-inequality-social-protection-lebanon-200116-
en_0.pdf
11 Supporting Syria and the Region Conference (2016, 3 November). Post-London Conference
Financial Tracking Report: Co-hosts statement. https://www.supportingsyria2016.com/
news/post-london-conference-financial-tracking-report-co-hosts-statement/
12 Names of individuals interviewed have been removed from this paper to protect the identities of
those individuals. In several cases interviewees disclosed information with the understanding
that their identities would not be revealed.
13 See the DCD-DAC section on aid effectiveness on OECDs website at
http://www.oecd.org/dac/effectiveness/parisdeclarationandaccraagendaforaction.htm. Oxfams
position is that in addition to these principles, for aid to be truly effective in alleviating poverty and
addressing inequality, a key focus must be on womens rights and support for womens
organizations and civil society more broadly. See Oxfam (2016). Accountability and Ownership:
The role of aid in a post-2015 world. https://www.oxfam.org/sites/
www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp-accountability-and-ownership-140916-en.pdf
14 Predating the London conference, the UN and neighbouring countries had started to look
towards long term aid plans. Last years Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan (3RP), including
the Jordan Response Plan (JRP) and Lebanon Crisis Response Plan (LCRP) was a three year
multi-country plan designed to meet both short term emergency and long term needs of refugees
and host communities. The UN refugee appeals including multi-year country plans was a
welcomed first step.
15 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2016, 3 February). Enabling the Private
Sector to Support Refugee-Hosting Communities. http://www.ebrd.com/news/events/enabling-
the-private-sector-to-support-refugeehosting-communities-.html
16 Danish Refugee Council, Oxfam, Save the Children (2017). Stand and Deliver: Urgent action
needed on commitments made at the London conference one year on.
https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/stand-and-deliver
12
17 At the Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region conference in Brussels in April 2017, more
than $6bn was pledged by various donor countries. More analysis is required to determine
exactly how much was pledged as new funds for 2017 or part of previous pledges and
commitments. For more information on funds pledged at the Brussels conference, please see:
UN (2017, 5 April). Donors pledge $6 billion to help support future of war-torn Syria at UN-
backed conference. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56502#.WPX12_nyuUk
18 Oxfam (2017, 5 April). Brussels Conference is latest international event to fail the people of
Syria. https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/reactions/brussels-conference-latest-international-
event-fail-people-syria
19 World Bank (2016, 15 April). International Community Endorses New Initiative to Support
Refugees, Host Communities, Recovery and Reconstruction in the Middle East and North Africa.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/04/15/international-community-endorses-
new-initiative-to-support-refugees-host-communities-and-recovery-in-mena
20 For more information on this type of financing, see Oxfams report: J. Pereira (2017). Blended
Finance: What is it, how does it work, and how is it used. https://www.oxfam.org/sites
/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/rr-blended-finance-130217-en.pdf
21 World Bank (2016, 4 October). Following the Refugees: New Global Concessional Financing
Facility. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/10/04/following-the-refugees-new-
global-concessional-financing-facility
22 See Council of the European Union (2016, 20 September). Joint Proposal for a COUNCIL
DECISION, 2016. (Jordan) http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-12384-2016-ADD-
1/en/pdf;
Council of the European Union. Joint Proposal for a COUNCIL DECISION, 2016 (Lebanon),
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52016JC0040
23 The Busan Partnership agreement of 2011 represents a consensus that a wide range of
governments and organisations have expressed their support for. It offers a framework for
continued dialogue and efforts to enhance the effectiveness of development co-operation.
Following the agreement, the Global Partnership for Development Co-operation was established
to ensure accountability for its implementation. See here for more information
http://www.oecd.org/development/effectiveness/busanpartnership.htm
24 When using the term aid, Oxfam is referring to overseas development assistance (ODA). This is
technically defined by the Organisation of Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) as
the transfer by official agencies, including states and local governments, of public finances to
developing countries, multilateral organizations and international NGOs that is: administered with
the main objective of promoting the welfare and the economic development of developing
countries, concessional in character and conveys a grant element of at least 25 percent.
According to the OECD DAC High Level Meeting Communiqu that was held in February 2016,
the definition of ODA was revisited and new components such as human rights, peace, and
security were added, as they are viewed. Oxfam excludes the following from this definition: debt
relief, educating developing country students in rich countries, redirection and housing of
refugees in rich countries and export credits.
25 Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MOPIC).
http://www.mop.gov.jo/DetailsPage/PartAr.aspx?CourseID=10
26 Danish Refugee Council, Oxfam, Save the Children (2017). Stand and Deliver: Urgent action
needed on commitments made at the London conference one year on.
https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/stand-and-deliver
27 International Monetary Fund (2016, 25 August). IMF Executive Board Approves US $723 million
Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility for Jordan.
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/08/25/PR16381-Jordan-IMF-Executive-Board-
Approves-US-723-million-Extended-Arrangement
28 M. Mossallem (2015). The IMF in the Arab World: Lessons Unlearnt. Page 10.
http://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/final-MENA-report.pdf
29 General Debt Overview, Ministry of Finance, Lebanon http://www.finance.gov.lb/en-
US/finance/PublicDebt/Documents/PublicDebtTimesSeries/General%20Debt%20Overview%20U
pdated%20as%2028%20February%202017.pdf
30 Government Net Debt as a percentage of GDP, found in International Monetary Fund (2017, 24
January). IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation.
http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/01/24/PR1720-Lebanon-IMF-Executive-Board-
Concludes-Article-IV-Consultation.
31 World Bank ,GDP growth (annual %) for Lebanon (2015).
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=LB
32 Rasheed for Integrity and Transparency, Transparency International (2016). The National
Integrity System. Jordan Chapter.
https://www.transparency.org/whatwedo/publication/the_national_integrity_system_jordan
33 The priorities identified by some donors in Lebanon include maintaining internal security,
promoting employment opportunities, containing refugee migration, extending technical
assistance, encouraging good governance, and promoting the inclusiveness of public, private,
and civil society sectors.
34 Key Informant Interview with donor representative to Lebanon conducted by LCPS, 12 January
2017
13
35 After a consultative process, the Jordan 2025 plan was published in 2015. It states that it
provides a clear and honest assessment of the Kingdoms current situation; outlines a vision
with specific goals to be achieved; and provides a roadmap, including specific initiatives and
timelines, to be followed to achieve [Jordans] aspirations. See, Jordan 2025: A national vision
and strategy (2015). http://www.nationalplanningcycles.org/sites/default/files
/planning_cycle_repository/jordan/jo2025part1.pdf
36 Government of Jordan (2016). The Jordan Compact: A New Holistic Approach between the
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the International Community to deal with the Syrian Refugee
Crisis. http://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/jordan-compact-new-holistic-approach-between-
hashemite-kingdom-jordan-and
37 Focus Group Discussion with representatives of Lebanon civil society conducted by LCPS, 16
December 2016.
38 Key Informant interview conducted by Phenix, 10 April 2017.
39 Key Informant Interview Conducted by Phenix, 10 April 2017.
14
Oxfam International April 2017
This paper was written by Alexandra Saieh, Sally Abi Khalil and Daniel Gorevan.
Oxfam acknowledges the assistance of Tariq Ahmad, Soman Moodley, and
Sarnata Reynolds in its production and the research that was conducted for this
paper by Sami Atallah, Zeina Helou, and Dima Mahdi at the Lebanese Center
for Policy Studies and Ahmad Awad at Phenix Economic and Informatics
Studies. It is part of a series of papers written to inform public debate on
development and humanitarian policy issues.
For further information on the issues raised in this paper please email
advocacy@oxfaminternational.org
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