Vol.

: 340
08 MAY ,2017

Index

Market View 1
MARKET VIEW
Company Update 2 VALUATION CONCERNS ARE EMERGING AT THIS LEVEL

Around the
Economy 3
On back of continued reforms and liquidity, the Indian market has performed ex-
Knowledge Corner 3 ceptionally well during last six months. The result season has also started with positive
note, but the market has already run up before that. Under the circumstances the over-
Mutual Fund 4
all valuations looks stretched. In fact the market cap to GDP ratio is above the histori-
Commodity Corner 5 cal average of Indian market. Historical average is at 78 while the current market cap

Forex Corner 6 to GDP ratio is around 80. It shows the confidence and good performance of the econ-
omy. But at higher level the institutions are seen booking the profits and waiting for
Report Card 7
right opportunity to enter the market. Some international events warrant cautiousness.
Short Term Call Status 8 The outcome of French election is eagerly awaited.

Editor & Contributor

Darshana Mishra The resolution of North Korean issue is also eagerly awaited by the market. Consider-
ing the above factors including the stretched valuations, it is advisable to remain cau-
tious in the range of 9250-9375. Any fall below 9200 may trigger some selling pres-
Special Contributors
Kunal Shah sure. It is also important to note that at every crucial technical support levels, the retail
Dhaval Ghodasara
investors including DIIs are interested in buying. Some cautiousness is also seen in
view of the recent Indo-Pak tension.

Kamal Jhaveri
For suggestions, feedback MD- Jhaveri Securities
and queries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

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Company Update : GAIL LTD

Company Basics Financial Basics Share Holding Pattern
BSE Code 532155 FV (`) 10.00 Holder's Name % Holding
EPS (`) (TTM) 23.73 Promoter 54.97
NSE Symbol GAIL P/E (x) (TTM) 17.23 Public 45.03

EQUITY (` in Cr.) 169 P/BV (x) (TTM) 2.26

MKT.CAP (` in Cr.) 69165.64

Outlook and valuation : We recommend BUY on the stock on account of petrochemical business showing
improvement due to lower raw material cost. Increased margins by renewal of RasGas contract will be an
added benefit. We target stock to trade at EV/EBITDA of 7.9x in FY17E. ( Target Price: Rs. 452)

Company Overview :
GAIL (India) Ltd is Indias flagship Natural Gas Company, integrating all aspects of the Natural Gas value chain
(including Exploration & Production, Processing, Transmission, Distribution and Marketing) and its related ser-
vices. The company is an integrated energy company along the Natural Gas value chain with global footprints.
They have interest in the business of natural gas, LPG, Liquid Hydrocarbons and Petrochemicals. They have
also diversified into Exploration & Production, City Gas Distribution and are steadily developing their overseas
presence.

Investment rationale for GAIL Ltd

Leading integrated natural gas company.

Strong presence in city gas distribution business through Subsidiary MGL & IGL.

Extension of its various Pipelines routes will be added trigger point.

Govt. Planning of providing gas to all the rural areas in the coming 1-2 years.

Lower prices of domestic natural gas for LPG, LHC business augur well for segments profitability.

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Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :
Data released by Markit Economics on 4 May showed that the rate of increase in Indian service sector activity weakened in April 2017.
The headline Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) remained unchanged at 52.5 in April as in March. The com-
bined index of eight core industries comprising nearly 38% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood
at 202.9 in March 2017, which was 5% higher compared to the index of March 2016.

On the global front, the US Federal Reserve on 3 May 2017, left monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and indicated it remains on
track to deliver two more rate increases by year-end. The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped to 50.3 in
April from 51.2 in March, indicating a slower expansion of activity, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit said on 2 May.

Market Eye Week ahead :

The government will announce industrial production data for the month of March 2017 after market hours on Friday, 12 May 2017. The
data on inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) or retail inflation for April 2017 will also be announced after market hours on that
day. Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) is coming up with an initial public offer (IPO) of 20.4 crore shares.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren will be the keynote speaker at the Risk Management for Commercial Real Estate
Conference being held at the NYU Stern School of Business in New York, New York on Tuesday, 9 May 2017. Dallas Federal Reserve
Bank President Robert Kaplan to speak at the Dallas Regional Chamber Lower Middle Market Investment Summit in Dallas on the same
day.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon : Result: Abb India, Infratel, Canara Bank.
2. Tue : Result: Airtel, Petronet, Indigo, Godrej consumer.
3. Wed : Result: Hero Moto, Capital first, ZEEL, Sml isuzu.
4. Thu: Result: Asian paints, Force motor, ICRA, Granuels, India.
5. Fri : Result: Havells, Linde India, Nestle, Pnb Housing.

Knowledge Corner :
DEBENTURES

A type of debt instrument that is not secured by physical assets or collateral.

Why Debenture ?

Debentures are backed only by the general creditworthiness and reputation of the issuer. A debenture is an un-
secured form of investment. They are a useful to raise money for short period of time.

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Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups
Fund Name
Sector Weights Fund (%)
Scheme Name MIREA ASSET EMERGINF BLUE CHIP
Financial 30.91
AMC Mirea Asset Global Investment India Ltd Automobile 4.37
Energy 10.82
Type Open Ended & Equity Mid Cap
Healthcare 6.61
Category Open-ended FMCG 6.50
Launch Date May 2000 Technology 7.39
Metals 6.71
Fund Manager Neelesh Surana, Since May 2010 Construction 7.01
Net Assets (` Diversified 5.83
Rs. 3531.8 crore as on Mar 31, 2017
In crore ) Chemicals 3.51
History 2014 2015 2016 2017 Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
NAV (Rs) 27.87 31.80 35.66 43.65
Standard Deviation 15.87
Total Return (%) 84.62 14.08 12.17 22.39 Sharpe Ratio 1.71
Beta 0.97
Rank (Fund/Category) 7/78 10/71 10/79 21/81 0.72
R-Squared
Alpha 20.60
52 Week High (Rs) 27.87 32.46 39.62 -

52 Week Low (Rs) 14.60 27.37 27.04 - Composition (%)

Equity 95.51
Net Assets (Rs.Cr) 579.62 1054.32 2906.88 3204.87 Debt 2.69
Cash 1.80
Expense Ratio (%) 2.60 2.55 2.39 -

Fund Performance v/s Nifty 500 Fund Style

Investment Style
Growth Blend Value
Large
Capitalization

Medium

Small

Fund
Nifty Mid cap100
(Rebased to 10,000) Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

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Commodity Corner

BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week seen under pressure where Gold prices steadied and Silver prices dropped by 3.01% tracking
weakness in base metals and crude oil prices as investors awaited the first-round of voting in the presidential French election at the
weekend and possible announcements about tax changes in US. There was potential for safe-haven buying of gold after France said
security forces were fully mobilized for the weekend vote after an Islamist militant killed a policeman Thursday night. Safe-haven demand
re-emerged after a French policeman was shot dead and two others were wounded in central Paris on Thursday night in an attack
claimed by the Islamic State militant group. Investors were also watching events in Washington. President Donald Trump's administra-
tion will unveil a tax reform plan soon and expects it will be approved by Congress this year, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
said.After reporting a bigger than expected drop in U.S. existing home sales in the previous month, the National Association of Realtors
released a report showing that existing home sales rebounded to their highest level in ten years in March.

RECOMMENDATION : SELL GOLD @ 29500 SL 29850 TGT 29180-28900 SELL SILVER @41500 SL 42200 TGT 40800-40200

BASE METALS

FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, base metals prices remained under pressure except aluminium prices ended with 1.22% gains after news
that Xinjiang Jiarun Resources shut down 200,000 mt of disqualified aluminium capacity. Aluminium Prices seen supported in the week
as supporting prices was the inventory draws from London Metal Exchange warehouses, but a rise in Shanghai stocks on Friday limited
this bullish sentiment. Still, overall LME holdings are sitting at just 1.7 million tons. Inventories in Shanghai, meanwhile, are at their high-
est in about a year. Meanwhile, Chinas total March aluminium production rose to 2.707 million tons from 2.534 million in February. Alu-
minium production typically picks up in pace as spring approaches, tracking the seasonal pick-up in construction demand. While others
dropped where lead and nickel dropped over 3% and others too dropped as worries over political instability and global demand
prompted investors to cut bets on higher prices. Investors have overestimated global growth and the impact of supply disruptions at ma-
jor copper mines.

RECOMMENDATION : BUY ALUMINIUM @ 123 SL 121 TGT 126.5-129 SELL COPPER @ 370 SL 378 TGT 364-356 SELL ZINC @ 170 SL
175 TGT 164.50-168 SELL NICKEL @ 620 SL 635 TGT 605-590

ENERGY

FUNDAMENTAL : Last week, energy prices ended with losses where crude oil prices dropped by 6.20% on renewed concerns that in-
creasing U.S. production and high inventories will thwart OPEC's attempts to reduce the global crude glut. Prices fell as doubts emerged
over the effect of the OPEC/non- OPEC production cut by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year. Saudi
Arabia and Kuwait, key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, favour extending their production-limiting
deal with non-member producers into the second half of the year. Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak, however, declined to say
whether the top oil producer would adhere to an extension before a joint meeting on May 25, saying global stocks were declining. "The
situation has gradually been improving since the beginning of March," Novak said. Demand for crude oil is however set to rise in the
coming weeks as refineries around the world return from seasonal maintenance ahead of peak summer demand.

RECOMMENDATION : SELL CRUDE @ 3240 SL 3240 TGT 3180-3100 SELL NAT.GAS @ 208 SL 215 TGT 201-196

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Commodity Corner
Forex Corner
Market Recap :

The Indian rupee on Monday strengthened

against the US dollar tracking gains in the local
equity and Asian currencies markets. .

The 10-year bond yield was trading at 6.926%

compared to its previous close of 6.943%. Bond
yields and prices move in opposite directions. .

The dollar index, which measures the US cur-

rencys strength against major currencies, was
trading at 98.744, up 0.09% from its previous
close of 98.648.

Market Eye Week ahead :

The USDINR On daily chart pair below all short term, medium term, and long term moving average which is 20,
100 and 200.Whereas on weekly chart pair has continually taking support at 50WMA and daily stochastic nega-
tive diversions Which suggest short term trend is bearish. So for trading perspective, one could sell to the level
64.70-64.50 with SL of 65.00 for target of 64.46-64.35.

USD/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
USD/INR 64.16 64.35 64.46 64.65 64.76 64.57 64.27 64.54

EUR/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
EUR/INR 69.82 70.32 70.63 71.13 71.44 70.94 70.13 70.82

GBP/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
GBP/INR 82.38 82.95 93.27 83.84 84.16 83.60 82.71 83.51

JPY/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
JPY/INR 56.73 57.73 57.42 57.79 58.11 57.73 57.04 57.48

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J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty last week opened at 9339.85, attained a high at 9377.10 and fell to a low of 9269.90. Nifty finally closed the week at
9285.30 thereby showed a net fall of 0.20% on week to week basis. Overall Nifty has created support based at the gap of 9060-
8977. For 5 week did not violated the gap ad weeks back show a bullish candle. Last week was stalled candle pattern with nega-
tive candle. Further rise will continue if sustained rise and close above 9377 is witnessed. Resistance will be at 9310-9377.Lower
range for the week can be 9244-9203-9137. Overall hold long position with a stop loss of 9000.
Top Fundamental Stocks
Absolute
Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP Target Return @ Status
CMP
Petronet 20/02/2017 400 428 490 7% Buy

Escorts 06/02/2017 383 597 590 56% Buy

Edelweiss financial 16/01/2015 117 173 175 48% Profit Book

IOC Ltd 27/02/2017 376 434 470 15% Buy

Marico 20/02/2016 255 301 340 18% Buy

Voltamp transformer 13/02/2017 925 1180 1120 20% Buy

Mothersumi 03/04/2017 376 405 440 8% Buy

Lic hsg Finc 27/03/2017 608 718 720 18% Buy

Asian Paints 10/03/2017 1030 1152 1180 12% Buy
Nbcc india 20/03/2017 175 199 210 14% Buy
Alembic Pharmaceuti-
30/08/2016 630 591 732 -6% Buy
cals
Wonderla 25/04/2016 387 383 498 -1% Buy

Mold Tek Pack 04/04/2016 49 285 179 482% Buy

Welspun syntex/AYM 23/11/2015 121 80 223 -34% Buy

Ahluwalia contracts 24/08/2015 235 378 368 61% Buy

Infinite Computer Sol. 20/07/2015 190 227 255 19% Buy

Sadbhav Engineering
04/05/2015 298 323 430 8% Buy
Ltd.
M&M 12/01/2015 1238 1325 1450 7% Buy
PTC India Fin. Ser. 07/07/2014 39 47 45 21% Profit book

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing. Phillip
Fisher

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J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr. BUY/ TRIGGER %
No.
DATE STOCK RANGE RANGE TGT SL STATUS
SELL PRICE RETURN
1 20-Mar-17 HAVELLS BUY 438 444 441.00 460.00 425 TA 4.4
2 21-Mar-17 CUMMINSIND BUY 900 915 907.50 951.00 874 TA 4.6
3 22-Mar-17 GRASIM BUY 1078 1093 1085.50 1136.00 1044 SL -3.6
4 23-Mar-17 WIPRO BUY 495 523 509.00 523.00 481 SL -3.5

5 24-Mar-17 JETAIERWAYS BUY 476 483 479.50 502.00 461 TA 4.8

6 27-Mar-17 CUMMINSIND BUY 912 922 917.00 958.00 885 TA 4.8

7 28-Mar-17 PETRONET BUY 402 410 406.00 428.00 388 TA 4.7

8 29-Mar-17 ZEEL BUY 525 535 530.00 560.00 507 EXPIRE .

9 30-Mar-17 ASIANPAINT BUY 1060 1075 1067.50 1120.00 1028 SL -3.7

10 3-Apr-17 LT BUY 1565 1580 1572.50 1640.00 1535 TA 4.6

11 5-Apr-17 JISLJALEQS BUY 98 100 99.00 106.00 94 TA 4.7
12 6-Apr-17 MOTHERSUMI BUY 378 382 380.00 398.00 366 TA 4.6

13 7-Apr-17 CADILAHC BUY 446 453 449.50 472.00 432 TA 4.4

14 10-Apr-17 INFRATEL BUY 345 350 347.50 364.00 333 TA 4.8

15 11-Apr-17 BATAINDIA BUY 565 575 570.00 600.00 550 EXPIRE .
16 12-Apr-17 IGL BUY 1025 1038 1031.50 1080.00 998 TA 4.6
INDUSIND-
17 13-Apr-17 BUY 1430 1455 1442.50 1520.00 1392 EXPIRE .
BANK
18 17-Apr-17 PEL BUY 2230 2260 2245.00 2358.00 2162 TA 4.6

19 18-Apr-17 CENTURYTEX BUY 1120 1130 1125.00 1185.00 1084 TA 4.5

20 19-Apr-17 COALINIA SELL 283 278 280.50 267.00 290 EXPIRE
21 20-Apr-17 POWERGRID BUY 208 212 210.00 221.00 201 SL -3.6

22 21-Apr-17 APOLLOTYRE BUY 237 243 240.00 253.00 229 TA 4.8

23 24-Apr-17 DABUR BUY 287 293 290.00 306.00 279 SL -3.4

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J Street Short Term Call Status

BUY/ TRIGGER %
Sr. No. DATE STOCK RANGE RANGE TGT SL STATUS
SELL PRICE RETURN
24 25-Apr-17 BHARATFORG BUY 1130 1142 1136.00 1186.00 1096 OPEN .

25 26-Apr-17 GODREJIND BUY 532 541 536.50 563.00 516 TA 4.6

26 27-Apr-17 ITC BUY 289 292 290.50 304.00 281 SL -3.6

27 2-May-17 GAIL BUY 420 425 422.50 441.00 408 OPEN .

28 3-May-17 ARVIND BUY 406 414 410.00 430.00 395 OPEN .

29 4-May-17 ONGC BUY 188 192 190.00 202.00 181 OPEN .

30 5-May-17 EXIDEIND BUY 235 240 237.50 251.00 228 OPEN .

STATUS CALLS RATIO

TA+PB 15 71.43

SL+EXIT 06 28.57

TOTAL 21 100.00

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

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