Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

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Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tust

Field data-based probabilistic assessment on degradation of deformational MARK

performance for shield tunnel in soft clay
⁎
Hong-wei Huanga, Yan-jie Zhanga, Dong-ming Zhanga, , Bilal M. Ayyubb
a
Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Minister of Education and Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
b
Center for Technology and Systems Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Performance assessment of operated metro shield tunnel is critical for safety, functionality and durability of
Performance assessment segmental lining structures. Furthermore, aleatory and epistemic uncertainties existed in the external
Probability density evolution environments and internal materials inevitably cause random structural performance over its designed service
Shield tunnel life. In view of the situation, this paper presents a probabilistic assessment on the degradation of deformational
Horizontal convergence
performance for shield tunnel in Shanghai soft clay by using well-documented field data. Horizontal convergence
Deformational performance
of inner diameter is selected as the basic performance indicator. The performance metric is reasonably assumed
to be a parabolic transformation from horizontal convergence. Then, stochastic analysis is carried out to
demonstrate the evolution of probability density function both over long-term period and short-term period. On
the basis of field data, a lognormal random process is proposed and fairly well validated to represent the
evolution of long-term performance. It is calculated that the probability of tunnel deformational performance
less than 95% (i.e., the serviceability limit of deformational performance) after 10-year operation is equal to
0.70, and the performance less than 75% (i.e., the ultimate limit state of deformational performance) after 50-
year operation is about 0.036. In addition, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is
applied to gain insights relating to deformational performance evolution that produces relatively accurate short-
term forecasts. The monitoring frequency of twice a month is suggested for the accuracy of prediction based on
the field data in Shanghai. The proposed time-dependent deformational performance is helpful to determine the
necessity and urgency of preventive and control measures.

1. Introduction health state, which relates to the safety, functionality or serviceability

Shield tunnel is the most common type for metro tunnel in soft soils,
such as Shanghai clay (Wang, 2009; Shen et al., 2009; Li et al., 2009;
Hu et al., 2009). Hundreds of metro shield tunnels, which are usually
designed to have a service life of 100 years, have been put into
operation during the last decades. However, in the whole service life
of operated metro tunnels, degradation of structural performance could
be inevitably detected with evidence of different kinds of defects. The
unfavorable degradation poses a great threat to the safety of metro
operation (Ye, 2007; Yuan et al., 2012). How to evaluate performance
degradation of shield tunnel effectively and how to achieve reliable
prediction are important issues for the implementation of maintenance
work and life-cycle management (Andrade and Martínez, 2009;
Frangopol, 2011).
Before a clear and sound predictive model for degradation is
proposed, it is necessary to first identify an appropriate definition of
tunnel performance. Tunnel performance basically means the structural
and durability of the tunnel structural system. The causes of structural
performance degradation of shield tunnels could be mainly classified
into two groups based on sources, namely external aggressive environ-
mental effect and internal deteriorated material effect (Xu et al., 2010;
Ai et al., 2016). The external environment factors refer to unexpected
earth pressure coming from geological conditions and nearby geotech-
nical activities. The internal material factors include the deterioration
of lining materials, corrosion of reinforcing rods and segment assembly
error and etc. Degradation of structural performance can be reasonably
represented by the evolution of structural responses, e.g., displacement,
and defects, e.g., leakage and lining cracking. The performance could
be measured by a single indicator at member-level or by an integrated
indicator at system-level (Ghosn et al., 2016).
Among all the structural responses and defects, tunnel lining
deformation is usually considered as an insightful and reasonable
indictor to evaluate the state of tunnel performance. According to
long-term structural monitoring practices for metro tunnels in soft soil,

⁎
Corresponding author at: Geotechnical Building, Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, 200092 Shanghai, China.
E-mail addresses: huanghw@tongji.edu.cn (H.-w. Huang), 7zhangyj@tongji.edu.cn (Y.-j. Zhang), 09zhang@tongji.edu.cn (D.-m. Zhang), ba@umd.edu (B.M. Ayyub).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2017.05.005
Received 24 October 2016; Received in revised form 9 April 2017; Accepted 5 May 2017
0886-7798/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
H.-w. Huang et al.
large deformation of tunnel linings is often accompanied with other
structural defects (Richards, 1998; Chang et al., 2001; Asakura and
Kojima, 2003; Ye, 2007; Huang et al., 2009; Gu, 2011). The results of
deformational analyses from numerical simulation (Wang and Zhang,
2013) and ultimate capacity from full-scale load tests on segmental
rings (Liu et al., 2016) also revealed the high correlation between
tunnel lining deformation and concrete strain, bolt stress and joint
opening. Therefore, although it is a member-level performance indi-
cator, tunnel lining deformation is indicative and critical, and therefore
can be selected to assess the overall tunnel structural integrity state or
condition at system level.
Present practices commonly assess tunnel performance using em-
pirical and deterministic approaches, which, however, do not appro-
priately reflect uncertainties associated with real tunnel performance.
For example, Yuan et al. (2012) divided the structural performance of
an operational tunnel into five levels as Suitable, Degraded, Deteriorated,
Unavailable, and Unstable. But the classification is mainly empirically
based and lacks the numerical support for distinguishing different levels
between each other in a quantitative manner. However, performance-
based design of tunnels to achieve robustness or resilience motivates
the need to assess the evolution of tunnel performance in a quantitative
manner (Ayyub, 2014a; Huang and Zhang, 2016). Moreover, timely
and appropriate implementation of maintenance or reinforcement
measures also requires accurate understanding and quantitative evalua-
tion of tunnel performance. Since the tunnels usually are covered by the
non-homogeneous grounds with complex operational environments,
i.e., change of external loads and vehicle vibration effect, the structural
responses of shield tunnels inevitably exhibit variability both in
temporal and spatial dimensions. Furthermore, according to the
monitoring practices in metro shield tunnels, one segmental lining ring
at a specific tunnel section is commonly monitored by different
apparatus resulting in different information about the same deforma-
tional performance. Hence, deterministic approaches are insufficient to
evaluate and predict performance of a running metro tunnel. Using
probabilistic methods to develop a quantitative performance degrada-
tion model, therefore, is necessary. In this respect, the stochastic
process for forecasting structural performance both in the long term
and in the short term could offer a good way to assess the evolution of
structural performance (Chen and Durango-Cohen, 2015; Kobayashi
et al., 2015).
This paper presents an analytical model for field data-driven
probabilistic assessment on deformational performance of shield tunnel
in a quantitative manner. The objective is to characterize the deforma-
tional performance evolution of the shield tunnel through statistical
analysis in order to achieve efficient updating of the predictions based
on dynamic feedback in real time. The rest of this paper is organized as
follows: Section 2 demonstrates the formulation of tunnel lining
deformational performance measured by horizontal convergence. Sec-
tion 3 presents the detailed case information and database description
of the tunnel in Shanghai Metro Line 2. Statistical analysis on the
probability density evolution of deformational performance is pre-
sented in Sections 4 and 5, including long-term assessment by random
process and short-term forecast by ARIMA model. Some conclusions are
drawn in the end of this paper.
2. Definition of tunnel deformational performance
As mentioned previously, the deformation of tunnel lining is critical
both for tunnel serviceability and safety. Tunnels go through time-
dependent degradation of structural materials or disruption caused by
aggressive environments, and regardless of the source tunnels respond
to these effects in the form of deformation. It is thus generally accepted
that deformational performance of tunnel should be a primary focus
compared to other performance categories in long-term operational
tunnels. In this paper, horizontal convergence of inner diameter of
tunnel lining ΔD (termed horizontal convergence for brevity hereafter)
108
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119
D/2
D
D’
D D’ D
Fig. 1. Horizontal convergence of tunnel lining.
is selected as the indictor of tunnel deformational performance, as
shown in Fig. 1. The reason for this selection is twofold. First is due to
the ease of measuring ΔD in an operating tunnel. There are currently
many of monitoring techniques to capture the horizontal convergence
ΔD (Bennett et al., 2010). Second, the indicator ΔD can be physically
related to other deformational indicators, such as joint opening (Wang
and Zhang, 2013; Huang et al., 2017), joint dislocation (Wang, 2009)
and segment settlement (Tan et al., 2016).
More specifically, to evaluate tunnel deformational performance Q
in a quantitative manner, the relationship between ΔD and Q is defined
by the following equation:
⎡ ΔD (t )/ Dout ⎤2
Q (t ) = 1−⎢ ⎥
⎣ ΔDF / Dout ⎦ (1)
where ΔD(t) is the cumulative horizontal convergence at time t dated
from the start of tunnel operation. ΔDF denotes the ultimate limit of
horizontal convergence corresponding to the ultimate bearing capacity
of segmental linings of shield tunnels. Dout is the outer diameter of
tunnel lining. The ratio of ΔD over Dout is the dimensionless parameter
indicating the horizontal convergence level. As implied by Eq. (1), Q(t)
varies with time t within the range between zero and one. Eq. (1) has a
construct to yield two desirable features. First the tunnel performance
becomes one when no convergence occurs, i.e. ΔD(t)/Dout = 0. Second,
tunnel performance would be degraded to zero when tunnel lining
reaches its ultimate limit of bearing capacity, i.e. ΔD(t)/Dout = ΔDF/
Dout. Eq. (1) indicates a parabola shape of the transformation from
deformation to performance. This widely used parabola-shaped perfor-
mance function has been applied successfully in structural time-
dependent problems, such as the capacity of concrete structure with
time (Liu et al., 2012), the vapor diffusion of cement-based materials
with temperature (Bakhshi et al., 2012), cross-sectional area of
corroded reinforced steel with time (Stewart, 2004) and etc.
Liu et al. (2016) have conducted a series of full-scale load tests to
characterize the ultimate limit of the bearing capacity of ling ring for
the Shanghai metro tunnel with an outer diameter of 6.2 m. Apart from
the geometry of tunnel lining, the structural form and structural
material used in these tests are same as the field case described later
in this paper (next section). According to the tests results, the ultimate
bearing capacity is 179 kN and the corresponding ultimate horizontal
convergence ΔDF is 0.188 m. Therefore, the ultimate limit of conver-
gence ratio before failure (ΔDF/Dout) is equal to 0.0303(i.e., 0.188/6.2)
in Eq. (1). Fig. 2 graphically represents the performance Q against the
convergence ratio ΔD/Dout. It is obvious in Fig. 2 that, as the horizontal
convergence ratio ΔD/Dout increases, performance Q is degraded in the
form of a parabolic function.
3. Case information
Since the probabilistic model is developed using the measured data
from a field case, details of the well-documented field case of Shanghai
H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

1.20 Fig. 4. The material of segments is composed of the C55 concrete and
Deformational performance Q

1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
DF /Dout 0.0303
0.20
0.00
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035
Horizontal convergence ratio ( D/Dout )
Fig. 2. Variation of performance with the increase of convergence.
Metro Line 2 are briefly introduced in this section. This tunnel is
representative for most of the existing metro tunnels in Shanghai in
terms of excavation method, lining structural features, and construction
circumstances (Zhang and Huang, 2014; Liao et al., 2009; Wang, 2009).
The alignment of this tunnel is shown in Fig. 3. This tunnel was
excavated by earth pressure balance (EPB) shield machine. Each lining
ring of the metro tunnel was assembled by six segments. Each joint
between two adjacent segments was connected by two 5.8-M30 steel
bolts. The designed outer diameter of each lining ring is 6.2 m with a
wall thickness of 0.35 m and a longitudinal width of 1.2 m, as shown in
the Q235 reinforced steel bars. More details about the material
parameters can be found in the regulation (STB/ZH-000001, 2010).
Fig. 5 depicts the longitudinal geology profile of a typical tunnel. The
groundwater table is about 0.7–0.9 m below the ground surface. The
initial cover depth of tunnel axis ranges between 17 m and 20 m. As
shown in Fig. 5, the tunnel was buried in the typical Shanghai soft clay.
It has been investigated that this type of soft clay shows strong time-
dependent behavior, e.g. consolidation and creep in a relatively long-
term period (Zhang et al., 2003; Yin et al., 2011). According to the site
investigation and laboratory test results, Fig. 6(a) illustrates the main
physical properties of the soils, including water content (w), void ratio
(e) and soil unit weight (γ). Fig. 6(b) presents the mechanical properties
of soils, such as N value (SPT), undrained shear strength (su), effective
cohesion (c'), effective friction angle (φ'), the compressive modulus (Es)
and the lateral earth pressure coefficient (K0). It is obvious that the soil
in this area has a high level of water content (e.g., 35% on average),
resulting in a low level of strength (e.g., averaged su = 30 kPa) and
stiffness (e.g., averaged Es = 3 MPa).The time-dependent behavior of
surrounding soft clay might be the main reason causing the post-
construction deformation for tunnels even after a long period of
operation time. The post-construction deformation is the key concern
for maintenance engineers in metro company and is thus mainly
discussed in this paper.
The time flow of this metro tunnel is shown in Fig. 7. The
construction for tunnel lining structure was completed in October
2008. Afterwards, the structural decoration and operation electronic
signal system were constructed before the trial operation was started in

Investigated section
(S195~S280)

102m

Borehole

Tunnel Alignment

Fig. 3. Aerial view of the tunnel.

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H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

Concrete segment

Radial joint

Steel bolt

twall = 0.35m

Convergence
monitoring point
Fig. 4. Cross section of the instrumented segmental lining.

7
Elevation

Fill
Silty Clay
-1 Muddy sility clay
m m Sandy silt
Muddy sility clay
Tunnel crown

-9
Muddy clay
Investigated tunnel
Tunnel invert

-17
1-1 1-1 Clay

-25
3-1 3-1 Mixed silt and clay

60m 58m 44m

-33
No. Segment Ring

Fig. 5. Geological profile of a typical tunnel.

June 2010. From May 2010 to April 2011, monitoring procedure of
cross-section horizontal convergence was carried out by total station at
45 different time moments. In the early 50 days of the monitoring
period, the monitoring frequency is once every three days. After then,
the frequency was reduced to once per week since the measurement
indicates the relative stability of the deformation evolution. Fig. 4
shows the layout of measurement points. They were installed at the
inner surface of lining at about the springline (marked by solid triangle
dots in Fig. 4).
Huang et al. (2017) have conducted a survey of the lining
deformation for a number of lining rings in Shanghai Metro Line 2,
and the results show that the joint open and the horizontal convergence
are strongly correlated. Therefore, horizontal convergence as a single
indicator is capable to generally assess the tunnel deformational
performance in this case. In the present study, twelve lining rings
numbered S199, S210, S215, S220, S230, S236, S241, S251, S256,
S261, S272, and S278, were installed with the measurement points
among 85 lining rings ranging from ring No. S195 to ring No. S280. The
nearby environmental condition is quite clean as shown in Fig. 3, and
the ground condition shown in Fig. 5 has no significant variability along
the longitudinal alignment. Hence, the convergence for each ring is
regarded to be comparable. The measured twelve convergence data
could be seen as the random and independent structural response
samples. These data were used to develop a probabilistic model for

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H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

Water Content (%) Unit Weight

Borehole
Q6XJ9 Depth (m) P
Void Ratio e
(kN/m3 )
L
0.00 0
1 1.50 0 60 0 2 10 20
3.50
4.50
5
m 8.50
9.50
10

15

20.00
20

1
25.70 25

30

3-1
35 Max
Max
Min Min
40.45 40 Mean Mean

(a)

Friction angle Compressive Modulus Earth Pressure

Q6XJ9
Borehole SPT N Value Su (kPa) Cohesion c' (kPa)
'( ) Es0.1--0.2 (MPa) Coefficient K0
0
1 0 10 0 120 0 40 0 40 0 20 0 1.0

5
m

10

15

20

1
25

30

3-1
35 UU (Max)
CU Test Oedometer K0 Test
CU Test
UU (Min) Max Max Max Max
UU (Mean) Min Min Min Min
40 CPT Mean Mean Mean Mean
qu Test

(b)
Fig. 6. Soil properties from the site investigation: (a) physical properties; (b) mechanical properties.

assessment and prediction of tunnel deformational performance, which
is illustrated in the following section.
4. Long-term prediction for tunnel deformational performance
for tunnel lining is quantified by horizontal convergence ratio ΔD/Dout
(see Eq. (1)). Since Dout is constant at 6.2 m in this case, statistical
analysis of measured horizontal convergence ΔD was carried out before
the characterization of its deformational performance.

As mentioned previously, the index of deformational performance Q

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Construction completed Trial operation

October, 2008 June, 2010 April, 2011

Decoration&signal Convergence measurement
system construction

Fig. 7. Time flow for the metro tunnel operation.

4.1. Long-term prediction of tunnel convergence ΔD
4.1.1. Data base collection
On the basis of measurement plan, observations of horizontal
convergence from twelve lining rings are available for collection within
the 250 days (i.e., from May 2010 to April 2011). Fig. 8 plots the
measured horizontal convergences along the time line. The original
point of time t (set to zero) stands for the date on May 30, 2010 since
when the shield tunnel was put into operation. It is not surprising that
these field data sparsely distributed along the time line. The data
variation at a specific date in Fig. 8 reflects the difference for the
convergence in the investigated twelve lining rings, which validates the
objective of this paper that the tunnel convergence or deformational
performance should be assessed in a probabilistic perspective. In
addition to the data being with significant scatter, Fig. 8 shows a small
growth trend of convergence ΔD as a function of time t with an upper
bound and lower bound represented by red dash lines.
For an explicit description of this data set, a 12 × 45 matrix is
introduced to represent the dataset, which is expressed as:
⎡ ΔD1,1 ΔD1,2 ⋯ ΔD1,45 ⎤
⎢ ⎥
X=⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎥
⎢⎣ ΔD12,1 ΔD12,2 ⋯ ΔD12,45⎥⎦
where ΔDi,j denotes the magnitude of convergence of lining ring i at
time j, e.g., ΔD8, 34 means the value of convergence ΔD at the 8th ring
on the 34th day dated from the original date. The convergence of the
S199 S210 S215
41 S230 S236 S241
D
tunnel (between S195 and S280) at a specific date j is assumed to be a
time-dependent random variable. Subsequently, a sequence of such
time-dependent random variables constitutes a random process which
is denoted as {X(t): t ∈ T} = {X(t1), X(t2), … , X(t45)}, where X(ti) is a
random variable within the time domain T (i.e., from May 2010 to April
2011).
4.1.2. Long-term prediction model
For the established stochastic process {X(t): t ∈ T}, its forty-five
dimensional cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the corre-
sponding forty-five dimensional probability density function (PDF) are
expressed as follows, respectively:
F (x1,x2,…,xn;t1,t2,…,tn ) = P {X (t1) ⩽ x1,X (t2 ) ⩽ x2,…,X (tn ) ⩽ xn} (3a)
f (x1,x2,…,xn;t1,t2,…,tn ) (3b)
where x1, x2, … , xn ∈ R and t1, t2, … , tn ∈ T. The CDF for random
variables at different time points might be different in terms of
distribution type and parameters. It is necessary to infer the type of
probability distribution for each random variable X(t) based on the
sample data, i.e., convergence values of twelve different lining rings.
Due to the small amount of sampling, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test
(2) (K–S test), as one of the most useful and general nonparametric
methods, was adapted to test whether the samples came from a
hypothesized distribution F(x) or not.
In the present work, considering ΔD takes only positive real values,
K-S test was performed for lognormal distribution, which is often used
to model observations in measurement analysis. With the level of
S220
significance α = 0.05, it was found that at each observation time point,
S251

Ring No. the observed data are consistent with the hypothesized lognormal
39 S256 S261 S272 S278 distribution. Therefore, the sample of each X(t) reasonably follows
lognormal distribution and {X(t): t ∈ T} was subsequently modeled as a
Horizontal convergence

37
discrete-time lognormal random process.
35 12
1
(mm)

33 ΔDj = ∑ ΔDi,j, j = 1,2,…,45

12 i =1 (4)
31
εi,j = ΔDi,j−ΔDj , i = 1,2,…,12; j = 1,2,…,45 (5)
29
27 In order to better understand the average development of horizontal
convergence, mean value of measured ΔD of the twelve lining rings at
25 each time point was calculated by Eq. (4). Fig. 9 plots these mean
0 50 100 150 200 250 values against time in a logarithm form. There is an increasing trend
(May 30, 2010) Service time (day) with scatters as time elapses. A best fitted linear function of this trend
was captured (with R2 = 0.6) by using the least square method. It
Fig. 8. Field horizontal convergence observations of twelve lining rings. cannot be denied that the high uncertainties in the measured deforma-

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H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

100 (|ε|) was modeled as a zero mean white noise source. Consequently, the
time-variant convergence ΔD(t) was treated as a continuous-time
90
lognormal random process, which was expressed as the sum of a trend
D (mm)

80 Observed mean value term and a random term, as follows (unit: mm):

70 Predicted mean value ΔD (t ) = Tr (t ) + ε (t ) (6a)

Best fitted line Tr (t ) = 3.28 × 10−3t + 31 (6b)
60
Mean of

50 D = 3.28 10-3 t + 31 ε (t ), |ε| ∼ LN (0,1.732 ) (6c)

t=18250 days
R2 = 0.6 i.e., 50 years
40
30
1 10 100 1000 10000
Service time (day)
Fig. 9. Measured mean value of ΔD at each time point and predictions in long term.
tion of investigated tunnel linings might cause comparably low fitting
confidence. From the perspective of degradation mechanisms, the
continuously increased tunnel deformation in normal condition is
essentially predominated by the time-dependent behaviors of materials,
such as concrete, steels and soils, and subsequently by the system
behavior of assembled segments due to material degradation. For
example, corrosion of steel reinforcement is one of the main factors
that cause the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures
(Frangopol and Soliman, 2016). Furthermore, it has been found that
the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement increases approximately in a
linear trend as time elapses (Jin and Zhao, 2002). This supports the
decision of using linear mode for deformation development over time.
It also should be confessed that this degradation mode would be
nonlinear if all factors are included in the analysis. But the linear form
is used here since it is fairly acceptable to engineers in practice and
would also achieve well validation by using another set of field data
(details will be shown later). It is predicted that after 50-year service
life, even without any abnormal events occurred to the tunnel, it might
suffer large deformation with horizontal convergence greater than
90 mm, which would pose a serious threat to its structural safety and
normal operation. After the extraction of main trend of convergence
increase, residual error ε of convergence observations could be
calculated by Eq. (5) and the results are shown in Fig. 10. At each
time point, the mean value of residual error was estimated as zero. The
fluctuation range changes very little over time. By applying White
Heteroskedasticity Test (White, 1980) at the significance level of 0.05,
the variance of residual error at each time point was mathematically
validated as a constant (=1.732). By performing K-S test, the absolute
residual error |ε| was assumed as lognormally distributed. Therefore, ln
4.2. Prediction model for long-term tunnel performance Q
100000 Based on the above statistical analysis of convergence data, a
lognormal random process has been constructed to depict the prob-
abilistic evolution of tunnel lining horizontal convergence ΔD(t). Then
according to the relationship between Q(t) and ΔD(t) (see Eq. (1)), a
stochastic evolution model can be established for deformational
performance Q. The key of modeling Q is to obtain the time-dependent
probability density function (PDF) based on the derived statistical
characteristics of ΔD.
Since ΔD(t) is assumed to be lognormally distributed at each
moment t with a mean of μ and a standard deviation of σ, ln(ΔD(t))
thus follows corresponding normal distribution with a mean of λ and a
standard deviation of ζ, which are calculated as follows, respectively:
1
λ = ln(μ)− ζ 2
2 (7a)
⎛ σ2 ⎞
ζ 2 = ln ⎜1 + 2 ⎟
⎝ μ ⎠ (7b)
If we introduce parameter y standing for the expression of (ΔD(t)/
ΔDF)2, then ln(y) also follows normal distribution with a mean λ′ and a
standard deviation ζ′ that are calculated by the following equations:
λ′ = 2λ−2ln(ΔDF ) (8a)
2
ζ ′ = 4ζ 2 (8b)
On the basis of lognormal distributed probability density function
for convergence ΔD(t) at a given time moment t, the probability density
function of y at the same moment t can be derived as follows:
1 ⎛ −(ln(y )−λ′)2 ⎞
f (y ) = exp ⎜ ⎟
2π yζ ′ ⎝ 2ζ′ 2 ⎠ (9)
Furthermore, since the performance index Q is equal to 1-y, the
probability density function of Q then can be derived straightforwardly
as below:

1 ⎛ −[ln(1−x )−λ′]2 ⎞
f (x ) = exp ⎜ ⎟
15 S199 S210 S215 S220 2π (1−x ) ζ′ ⎝ 2ζ′ 2 ⎠ (10)
D (mm)

12 Ring No. S230 S236 S241 S251 Corresponding to the above PDF for performance index Q, the mean
9 S256 S261 S272 S278 and variance of Q at a given time moment t can be expressed as bellow:
6 1
μQ = 1− exp(2λ + 2ζ 2 )
3 (ΔDF )2 (11a)
Residual error of

0 1
σQ2 = exp(4λ + 4ζ 2 )[exp(4ζ 2 )−1]
-3 (ΔDF )4 (11b)
-6 Note that ΔDF is equal to 188 mm. Substituting ΔDF (188 mm), μ
-9 (i.e., Tr(t)) and σ (i.e., 1.73) from Eq. (6) into Eqs. (7)–(11), the time-
variant probability density function for performance Q(t) can be
-12
derived:
-15
1 ⎛ −[ln(1−x )−λ′(t )]2 ⎞
0 50 100 150 200 250 f (x,t ) = exp ⎜ ⎟
2π (1−x ) ζ′(t ) ⎝ 2[ζ′(t )]2 ⎠ (12)
(May 30, 2010)
Service time (day)
The mean function μQ(t) and standard deviation function σQ(t) of Q
Fig. 10. Residual error of ΔD at each time point. (t) can be expressed as follows:

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H.-w. Huang et al.
0.99
Deformational performance Q(t)
0.98
0.97
0.96
.measured performance
O predicted performance
0.95
0 50 100
Service time (day)
Fig. 11. Comparison between MCS samples and observed performance.
μQ (t ) = −3.04 × 10−10t 2−5.75 × 10−6t + 0.973
σQ (t ) = 3.21 × 10−7t + 0.003
Eq. (13) indicates that the mean value of performance decreases in a
parabolic form and the standard deviation increases in a linear form
with time. It should be reasonable that the convergence of tunnel lining
will increase with time because of the time-dependent material
degradation effect. But the uncertainty of the performance prediction
in the context of the standard deviation will become more significant in
the future.
Once the distribution associated with data characteristics was
obtained to represent the stochastic process of tunnel deformational
performance Q(t), the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to
generate a large amount of realizations. For each day in the time
domain (T = 0 ∼ 250 days), in which convergence observations are
available, 1000 realizations were generated to describe the evolution of
tunnel deformational performance Q(t). Fig. 11 plots both the measured
and predicted performance Q during the 250 days, i.e., the hollow grey
dots denote the data predicted by using MCS and the solid black dots
represent the measured data. It is clearly seen from Fig. 11 that the
range of predicted data from the above random process model properly
covers the original measured data. In other words, both the general
evolution trend and fluctuation of tunnel deformational performance
with time generally agree well with field data. Hence, it proves that the
proposed random process model could reproduce the real performance
in an acceptable accuracy.
4.3. Validation of proposed random process of Q(t)
The prediction model to describe probabilistic evolution of tunnel
deformational performance Q(t) proposed here is assumed to follow the
lognormal distribution at any moment t. This assumption is an outcome
of the data collected at hand and should be validated by another
independent data set for the same tunnel. To this end, the updated daily
convergence data dated from Oct 30 of 2015 to Mar 30 of 2016, i.e., a
total of 130 days, were measured for five rings (i.e., S236, S251, S261,
S220, and S278) among the investigated twelve lining rings of the same
metro tunnel in Line 2 of Shanghai. By applying Eq. (1), corresponding
deformational performance of each of the five lining rings was
calculated.
It should be noted that the initial time (t = 0) of the proposed model
was set on May 30 of 2010. Hence, the starting date of validation data
set (i.e., Oct 30 of 2015) and the ending date of validation data set (i.e.,
Mar 30 of 2016) correspond to the time point at 1950 days and
2080 days, respectively. Fig. 12 plots the measured deformational
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119
0.98
Deformational performance Q(t)
0.97
0.96
0.95
.measured performance
0.94 O predicted performance
1920 1950 1980 2010 2040 2070 2100
150 200 250 Service time (day)
Fig. 12. Comparison between predicted and observed performance.
performance of the five lining rings over time, shown by the solid
(13a) black dots. The predicted deformational performance of the whole
tunnel (between lining S195 and S280) by using the above random
(13b) process model (Eq. (12)) are also plotted in Fig. 12, represented by the
hollow grey dots. It is found that the measured performance data
intensively locate around the main trend of predicted values, which are
MCS results from the lognormal random process prediction model.
These results illustrate that the prediction of the mean of tunnel
deformational performance is reasonable and reliable for at least the
early five-year service life of the investigated shield tunnel. On the
other hand, the relative concentration of the measured performance
data at each time t shows slightly smaller variance than that of the
predicted deformational performance. The smaller variability results
from the fact that the available observations are only based on five
lining rings, which is a relatively small sample size to produce an
accurate standard deviation for validation.
4.4. Prediction of long-term performance
Since the proposed probabilistic prediction model of tunnel perfor-
mance evolution has been fairly well validated in particular with the
evolution of the mean of the performance, long-term performance
prediction could be made for the tunnel with a similar condition, i.e., a
shield driven tunnel with a similar range of cover depth, similar ground
condition and operational condition. In this section, prediction analysis
is demonstrated on deformational performance of metro shield tunnel
after a long period of service time (say 10 years for example). Under the
assumption that the long-term evolution of tunnel performance fol-
lowed the proposed random process derived previously, then perfor-
mance degrading with time has a trend in a parabolic form with linearly
increasing variance (see Eq. (13)).
Based on the constructed stochastic process, a MCS was performed
to simulate the evolving process of deformational performance until the
tunnel operates for 50 years, i.e., 18,250 days. Fig. 13 shows the
simulation results and provides a comprehensive view of performance
degradation. By applying Eq. (12), tunnel deformational performance
could be predicted in the form of probability density function at
different time periods, say at the 1st year, 10th year, 20th year, 30th
year, 40th year, and 50th year of tunnel operation. Fig. 14 shows the
change of these performance probability density functions (PDFs) when
the time moment reaches the above six levels. It is not surprising to
observe from Fig. 14 that the PDF curve of performance evolution is
getting more and more “flat” in shape from the 1st year to the 50th
year. It should be attributed to the variance of performance degradation
increasing over time. Obviously the uncertainty becomes significant
when performance deterioration progresses with increase of service
time. By integration probability density function at several points in
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H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

1 problem, maintenance or reinforcement measures will be implemented

Deformational performance Q(t)

only when large deformations are detected (DGJ08-11-99, 1999). Large

0.95 deformation usually refers to horizontal convergence reaching 100 mm
t=1 year for shield tunnels with an outer diameter of 6.2 m, i.e., deformational
0.9 performance Q less than about 75% calculated by Eq. (1). It is
t=10 years calculated that the probability of tunnel deformational performance
0.85 less than 75% after 40-year operation (i.e., P(Q < 75%|40 years)) is
t=20 years
6.02E-16, while P(Q < 75%|50 years) is equal to 0.0364, which could
0.8
t=30 years not be neglected. It is suggested that when tunnel serves for around
50 years, i.e., half of 100 years designed service life, or P(Q < 75%) is
0.75 t=40 years greater than 0.05, more attention should be paid to the inspection of
t=50 years tunnel structural health state and necessary reinforcement measures
0.7
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 should be taken to avoid potential structural failure.
Service time (day) x 10 4 It should be noted that the evolution of deformational performance
for tunnels over time is assumed to be under the normal condition
Fig. 13. Diagram of long-term performance evolution by MCS.
purely depending on the internal effects such as time-dependent
material behaviors. However, after years’ operation, the performance
140
t=1 year t=10 years curve along the time might change once there is an extreme event and
120 t=20 years t=30 years the following repair action (Sánchez-Silva et al., 2016; Huang and
t=40 years t=50 years Zhang, 2016). However, the probabilistic model presented in this paper
100
for prediction of tunnel deformational performance is still applicable in
80 these circumstances if the horizontal convergence data are newly
PDF

updated. Structural health monitoring can provide an accurate indica-

60
40
20
0 design are especially relevant for assessing the performance of structur-
0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90
Deformational performance Q(t)
Fig. 14. Probability density evolution curve of performance.
time, the probabilities of tunnel deformational performance less than
35%, 45%, 55%, 65%, 75%, 85% and 95% were calculated as
instantaneous values over time. Time-dependent reliability would
require further development in order to compute the time to first
non-performance, i.e., a defined failure level (Ayyub, 2014b). Fig. 15
presents the evolution process of the resulting probabilities with the
increase of tunnel operating age.
The Chinese code (GB50157-2013, 2013) for metro system has set
ΔD/Dout as the serviceability criterion at 3–4‰, while the Shanghai
local regulation (DGJ08-11-99, 1999) enlarges this criterion to 5‰. It is
shown in Fig. 15 that the probability of tunnel deformational perfor-
mance less than 95% after 10-year operation (expressed as P
(Q < 95%|10 years)) is equal to 0.7. Tunnel deformational perfor-
mance less than 95% means ΔD/Dout is larger than 7‰, which is
obviously greater than the above criteria, i.e., 3–5‰. In other words,
after ten-year operation of the metro tunnel without any reinforcement
solution, there is a 70% chance that the naturally degraded tunnel
performance is smaller than the serviceability limit. In current main-
tenance practice of shield tunnels in soft soil area, for deformation
tion on the actual structural responses and aid in improving the
accuracy of performance prediction (Frangopol and Soliman, 2016;
Frangopol et al., 2008; Strauss et al., 2008).
The emerging ideas of performance-based and resilience-based
0.95 1.00 al systems and infrastructure networks (Hamburger et al., 2003; Ayyub,
2014a). For the existing infrastructure, prediction for time-variant
structural performance is considered as the foundation of life-cycle
management for infrastructure (Biondini and Frangopol, 2016). The
selection of performance indicators and the assessment and prediction
of probabilistic performance provide the basis for the design process
and life-cycle management. The probabilistic performance assessment
method based on data statistics for shield tunnels proposed in the
present work are amenable to an efficient implementation in life-cycle
prediction probabilistic frameworks. The long-term prediction results,
which can be continuously updated with the help of inspection and
monitoring, facilitate to find the best maintenance options and their
application times. Therefore, optimum preventive maintenance actions
could be performed along the life-cycle of the tunnel structure in order
to extend its safe service life.
5. Short-term forecast of deformational performance
When predicting the probabilistic evolution of tunnel deformational
performance over the long term, the function developed for the mean of
performance (Eq. (13)) was derived from linear regression of conver-
gence based on measured data as seen in Fig. 9. The suitability of the
linear form (with a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.6) for the mean

1.00E+00
Q<35%
1.00E-02 Q<45%
Probability

Q<55%
1.00E-04
Q<65%

1.00E-06 Q<75%
Q<85%
1.00E-08 Q<95%

1.00E-10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Time (year)
Fig. 15. Evolution of probabilities {P(Q < 35%), P(Q < 45%), … , P(Q < 95%)} over time.

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H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

of convergence evolution might be arguable for sound predictions.
Therefore, more efficient approaches might be helpful to improve the
accuracy of prediction. In this section, autoregressive integrated mov-
ing average (ARIMA) model, which has been widely used in modeling
temporal dependence structure of time series, is applied for a more
accurate prediction of evolution of the mean of tunnel deformational
performance (denoted as Q∗ hereafter), especially in a relative short-
term period.
5.1. Autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting short-
term performance
An ARIMA model has three important model parameters (Box and
Jenkins, 1976), including p (i.e., order of auto-regressive process), d
(i.e., degree of difference), and q (i.e., order of moving average
process). It has been widely used and validated as an effective way
for data-learning and prediction (Liu et al., 2015; Ramos et al., 2015).
In general, the procedure of building ARIMA model consists of four
main steps. First, it is necessary to test the stationarity of the time series
by augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test (Elliott et al., 1996).
The non-stationary time series should be transformed by square root,
logarithmic algorithm or difference method to achieve stationarity.
Second, model parameters (p, q) are identified with autocorrelation
function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) analyses
(Box et al., 1994) and some other identification methods such as
Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) (Shibata, 1976) and the Bayes
information criterion (BIC) (Gideon, 1978). Third, based on the model
identification the value of corresponding model coefficients can be
estimated by comparing the goodness-of-fit of the models with different
coefficient combinations. Finally, model test should be conducted to
assess model adaptability including significance test of coefficient,
model stability test and residual diagnosis. Note that there are a
number of possible models due to different combinations of model
parameters and coefficients. Hence, these four steps should be repeated
until the most appropriate model is obtained.
To apply ARIMA model for the short-term prediction of tunnel
lining deformational performance, a corresponding time series with a
constant interval should firstly be generated. To this end, the weekly
convergence data of the twelve lining rings were extracted from the
original convergence observations. Then the weekly time series of the
mean value of tunnel deformational performance could be derived
following the procedure developed in last section for long-term predic-
tion (see in Eq. (1)). Denoted as {Q∗(t)}, this time series includes a total
of 34 data points and has been plotted against time tin Fig. 16
(represented as the solid dot line). From Fig. 16, the time series
{Q∗(t)} shows evidence of non-stationarity as there is a slight down-
ward movement in the data. Therefore the first order difference was
performed to remove the trend and a new series (denoted as {dQ∗(t)})
was generated, plotted as the hollow dot line in Fig. 16. It can be
observed that the downward trend was removed in a graphical point of
Q* dQ*
0.974
view and data are equally distributed along the zero line with certain
randomness.
For the available 34 data points for Q∗(t), the first 30 points were
selected for establishing the ARIMA model, while the left four points for
model validation. Following the four-step procedure of building ARIMA
model, an explicit prediction model ARMA (3,2) for {dQ∗(t)} was
developed by using the first 30 data points with the best-fitted model
parameters and coefficients, which is expressed as follows:
dQt∗ = −0.361dQt∗−1−0.734dQt∗−2−0.346dQt∗−3 + εt + 0.228εt −1 + 0.938εt −2
(14)
where and dQ∗t, dQ∗t-1, dQ∗t-2 dQ∗t-3
are first order difference results of
the mean of deformational performance at time t, t-1, t-2 and t-3,
respectively. The parameters εt, εt-1 and εt-2 are the prediction errors at
time t, t-1 and t-2, respectively.
Based on the above ARMA (3,2) model for {dQ∗(t)}, a corresponding
ARIMA (3,1,2) model for {Q∗(t)} could be subsequently derived by an
integral treatment since dQ∗ is the first order difference of Q∗. Hence,
the mean of deformational performance Q∗ could be predicted by the
following equation:
Qt∗ = 0.639Qt∗−1−0.373Qt∗−2 + 0.388Qt∗−3 + 0.346Qt∗−4 + εt + 0.228εt −1
+ 0.938εt −2 (15)
It is quite clear to see from Eqs. (14) and (15) that this prediction
model is dynamic and depends largely on the previous measured data.
The previous three data points are necessary for predicting the fourth
point of first order difference of the mean of performance dQ∗, while
previous four data points are required for the fifth point of the mean of
performance Q∗. This essentially reflects the principle of dynamic short-
term prediction. Fig. 17 plots the 4th-30th fitted data and the 31st-34th
predicted data by applying the proposed ARMA(3,2) model for
{dQ∗(t)}. It is found that there is a high agreement between the actual
and simulated values of {dQ∗(t)}. Therefore, this model could be
applied for further analysis on {Q∗(t)}.
5.2. Prediction of the mean of short-term performance
On the basis of the established model, the means of tunnel
deformational performance from 5th week to 34th week were simu-
lated. It should be noted that this model was established only based on
the first 30 weekly measured data. In other words, the results before the
30th week calculated by using this model are the validation of the
goodness of fit for this proposed model. The simulated results from the
31st week to 34th week are the predictions of this model. Fig. 18 plots
these 34 simulated data against time (see the hollow dot line). In
addition, the actual means of deformational performance of 34 weeks,
which were derived from field measured data, are also plotted in Fig. 18
for a comparison. It is observed from Fig. 18 that the simulated mean of
performance Q∗ agrees quite well with the actual data both for the
previous 30 weeks and the later 4 weeks. Additionally, Fig. 19 illus-
0.003 Actual Fitted Forecast
0.003
1st difference of Q* (dQ*)

1st difference of Q* (dQ*)

0.002
Mean of deformational

0.973 0.002
performance Q*

0.001 0.001
0.972
0.000 0.000
0.971
-0.001 -0.001
0.970
-0.002
-0.002 Fitted Predicted
0.969 -0.003
-0.003
0.968 -0.004
0 35 70 105 140 175 210 -0.004
Service time (day) 0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245
Service time (day)
Fig. 16. Weekly time series of the mean of deformational performance and its first order
difference. Fig. 17. Comparison between actual dQ* and simulated values using ARMA (3,2).

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H.-w. Huang et al. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119

0.974 (a)
Actual 0.974
Mean of deformational

0.973 Fitted

Mean of deformational
Forecast 0.973 Actual
performance Q*

0.972 Fitted

performance Q*
0.972 Forecast
0.971
0.971
0.970
0.970
0.969
Fitted Predicted 0.969
0.968
0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245
0.968
Service time (day) 0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245
Fig. 18. Comparison between actual Q* and simulated values using ARIMA (3,1,2). Service time (day)

0.003 (b)
0.002 0.975

Mean of deformational
+ 0.974 Actual
0.001 Fitted

performance Q*
0.973
Residual

0.000
0 35 70 105 140
-0.001
- 0.970
-0.002
Service time (day)
-0.003
Fig. 19. Residuals of ARIMA (3,1,2).
trates the residual error of the simulated results by subtracting the real
measured results. It is clear seen from Fig. 19 that most of the errors
between the simulated and actual results of {Q∗(t)} are less than one
time of standard deviation (σ) of the model residual error.
Since ARIMA model is designed based on the correlations of the
periodically collected data, it works best when the investigated data
exhibit a stable or consistent pattern over time (Akhtar and Rozi, 2009).
Since the tunnel deformational performance is naturally degraded as
time elapses, Fig. 19 has validated the relative stable and consistent
form of variation. It thus results in a fairly well agreement between the
measured and predicted means of performance. The magnitude of the
predicted means of performance Q∗ and the associated bias from the
actual data of the last 4 weeks are displayed in Table 1. The absolute
percentage error (APE) was calculated to assess the bias of the proposed
model. The APE value for each step ahead is rather small, i.e., APEmax is
equal to 0.11%, indicating that the constructed model ARIMA (3,1,2)
for description of the evolution of the mean of tunnel deformational
performance is reliable with high accuracy, and therefore can be used
to forecast the expected numbers of cases.
Note that the above prediction model was established based on
weekly measurements (i.e., one data point is selected every other
week). In order to investigate the effect of monitoring frequency, in
other words, the choice of data interval, two time series were newly
built in this way that one data point was selected every two weeks, i.e.,
one series was for the data from odd-number weeks such as 1st, 3rd
week and etc., and the other was for the data from even-number weeks
such as 2nd, 4th week and etc. Each group of these two series contained
Forecast
0.972
175 210 245
0.971
0.969
0.968
0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245
Service time (day)
Fig. 20. Fitness and prediction by ARIMA model using once two weeks measurement
frequency: (a) odd numbered subseries; and (b) even numbered subseries.
17 data points, the previous 15 points for establishing model and the
last two points as validation of predictability of the model. Similar
ARIMA modeling procedure to the previous model was then performed
for these two series. The best-fitted ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (2,1,1)
models were developed for the odd numbered series and even
numbered series, separately. Similar to Fig. 18, Fig. 20 plots the
simulated mean of performance Q∗ against time for the odd numbered
series (Fig. 20a) and even numbered series (Fig. 20b), respectively. In
addition, the actual measured data are also plotted in these figures. It is
also clear seen from Fig. 20 that the agreement between simulated and
actual data are quite well both for the 15 fitted data points and the two
predicted data points.
Table 1 also exhibits the detailed comparison of prediction of the
last two data points with the corresponding measured data. The
maximum of APE shows in Table 1 is around 0.12% which is close to
the APEmax equal to 0.11% for the previous ARIMA (3,1,2) model of
one-week series. It is indicated that the ARIMA modeling based on these
two subseries of the mean of tunnel deformational performance is able
to achieve the comparable accuracy compared with the ARIMA (3,1,2)
model of one-week series. In other words, when developing an ARIMA
model for the time series of the mean of tunnel deformational
performance, its time interval can be rationally increased to two weeks.
This would be helpful to facilitate appropriate practical inspection or
monitoring program on tunnel convergence. Similar analysis has been

Table 1
Predicted mean of performance Q* and associated bias APE.

Time (day) Actual Q* One-week series Two-week series Four-week series

Predicted Q* APE (%) Predicted Q* APE (%) Predicted Q* APE (%)

210th 0.9702 0.9697 0.05 0.9700 0.02 0.9690 0.13

217th 0.9698 0.9701 0.03 0.9703 0.05 0.9697 0.01
224th 0.9722 0.9711 0.11 0.9710 0.12 0.9703 0.19
231st 0.9721 0.9713 0.08 0.9709 0.12 0.9695 0.27

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H.-w. Huang et al.
conducted for four weeks a point time series. But the APE for the
ARIMA model using four weeks a point frequency is relatively larger
than that of the one-week time series, as seen in Table 1. Hence,
according to the present work, the monitoring frequency can be
reasonably arranged as every two weeks for one point of data
acquisition.
It can be concluded that the ARIMA model can be used to describe
and predict the dynamic evolution of the mean of tunnel deformational
performance with low computational complexity and reasonable accu-
racy. However, it is known that ARIMA model is able to predict more
accurately on the short term. With the extension of prediction period,
the prediction error will gradually increase. This is the natural
insufficiency of ARIMA model. In order to increase prediction accuracy,
newly collected data should be added continually to the performance
sequence over time. Consequently new parameter-coefficient combina-
tions of the ARIMA model might be updated to the new series. Updating
the prediction model by using previous data is the essential sense of
data-driven probabilistic assessment of tunnel performance on the short
term.
The short-term performance prediction presented in the study case
is illustrative for the shield tunnels operating in normal conditions, i.e.,
without the impact of extreme events or the implementation of
maintenance actions during the investigated time interval. As a result,
the change of the Q value looks insignificant in a short term. However,
the significance of the short-term performance prediction is threefold.
First, through comparing the prediction accuracy of data collected at
different time intervals, appropriate short-term inspection and mon-
itoring interventions can be scheduled, i.e., whether it is 4 weeks,
2 weeks or even one week for the monitoring frequency. Second, short-
term performance prediction is more precise and could be updated by
monitoring actual structural responses to ensure the satisfactory
operation until it reaches the limit state. The short-term prediction of
mean value of performance could assist the long-term performance
prediction in this sense. Thirdly, timely short-term performance evalua-
tion and prediction play an important role in the early warning of the
sudden drop of performance when extreme events occur. As the
beneficial complementation for long-term prediction, therefore, it is
necessary and significant to conduct more reliable short-term perfor-
mance prediction.
6. Conclusion
Monitoring and predicting shield tunnel performance are necessary
to understand the structural responses and implement the effective
control measures once the performance reaches the limit state. In this
paper, considering the structural features of metro shield tunnels,
horizontal convergence of segmental lining ring is selected as the
performance indicator. A parabolic transformation function is built to
correlate the convergence ΔD with deformational performance Q. The
long-term and short-term prediction of the degradation evolution
process is proposed in this paper. Some of the main conclusions are
drawn here:
(1) On the basis of the measured convergence dataset (a matrix of
45 × 12 sample points) of the shield tunnel for Shanghai Metro
Line 2, a lognormally distributed stochastic process is proposed and
fairly well validated for the prediction of degradation evolution of
deformational performance Q on the long term. From the prediction
model, it is calculated that the probability of tunnel deformational
performance less than 95% (i.e., the serviceability limit of deforma-
tional performance) after 10-year operation is equal to 0.7, and the
performance less than 75% (i.e., the ultimate limit state of
deformational performance) after 50-year operation is about 0.036.
(2) In addition, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
model is developed for more precise short-term prediction of the
mean of deformational performance. Based on analysis of the same
118
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 67 (2017) 107–119
data set for long-term prediction, using the data of a total of
30 weeks to predict the next four weeks could produce reasonably
accurate performance. Through model comparison it is also in-
dicated that the optimal monitoring frequency can be reasonably
arranged as twice a month.
Overall, this approach allows for dynamic updating of the predic-
tions both in the long term and short term based on continuously
collected data in real time. The authors have to note that this data-
driven dynamic analysis is purely based on the available measurement
data at hand. Hence, the conclusions and results are mostly suitable for
tunnel linings with similar size and similar ground condition such as in
Shanghai metro. According to the probabilistic description and predic-
tion of deformational performance derived from field data, we are able
to get a fairly good understanding of the health status of tunnel lining
system and of the lifetime serviceability condition. The results are
beneficial to guide the routine maintenance and deformation control to
prevent progressive failure of tunnel lining structure.
Acknowledgements
This study is substantially supported by the financial support from
the Natural Science Foundation Committee Programs (Grant nos.
51608380 and 51538009). The support is gratefully acknowledged.
Besides, the field data are collected with the help of Dr. Rulu Wang and
Mr. Hua Shao from Shanghai Metro Co., Ltd. The authors are also
grateful to them.
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