Periode Penyaluran

Bulan tY(t) t2
(t) Y (t) (MT)
34.921,7 34.921,7
Jan-16 1 80 80 1
33.577,5 67.155,0
Feb-16 2 22 44 4
37.638,4 112.915,3
Mar-16 3 48 44 9
40.710,4 162.841,9
Apr-16 4 94 76 16
40.339,3 201.696,8
Mei-16 5 64 20 25
37.780,7 226.684,5
Jun-16 6 50 00 36
25.629,8 179.409,1
Jul-16 7 82 74 49
22.931,4 183.451,2
Agust-16 8 06 48 64
30.275,0 272.475,8
Sep-16 9 96 64 81
33.197,4 331.974,0
Okt-16 10 06 60 100
33.649,6 370.146,4
Nov-16 11 81 86 121
35.027,6 420.331,3
Des-16 12 16 86 144
31.977,1 415.703,3
Jan-17 13 83 73 169
34.835,4 487.695,8
Feb-17 14 18 45 196
42.225,8 633.387,0
Mar-17 15 03 45 225
40.998,4 655.974,8
Apr-17 16 27 24 256
555.716,2 4.756.764,7
Jumlah 136 74 68 1496

( 16 )( 4.756 .764,768 )(555.716,274)(136)

B= (16 )( 1496 )(136 2) = 97,578 MT

555.718,274 (97,578)(136)
A= 16 - 16 = 33.902,856 MT

Jadi, Y(t) = 33.902,856 + 97,578t

Dengan demikian hasil peramalan penyaluran LPG untuk bulan Mei 2017 Desember 2017
adalah sebagai berikut:

Y (17) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (17) = 35.561,678

Y (18) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (18) = 35.659,256

Y (19) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (18) = 35.756,834

Y (20) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (18) = 35.854,411

Y (21) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (18) = 35.951,989

Y (22) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (22) = 36.049,567

Y (23) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (23) = 36.147,145

Y (24) = 33.902,856 + 97,578 (24) = 36.244,723

Periode Penerimaan
Bulan tY(t) t2
(t) Y(t) (MT)
34.201,3
Jan-16 1 18 34.201,318 1
33.546,7
Feb-16 2 12 67.093,424 4
37.317,8
Mar-16 3 93 111.953,679 9
41.488,0
Apr-16 4 86 165.952,344 16
39.694,2
Mei-16 5 19 198.471,095 25
38.654,2
Jun-16 6 94 231.925,764 36
24.684,7
Jul-16 7 68 172.793,376 49
22.908,1
Agust-16 8 97 183.265,576 64
31.066,1
Sep-16 9 91 279.595,719 81
33.983,6
Okt-16 10 72 339.836,720 100
32.362,2
Nov-16 11 84 355.985,124 121
35.433,7
Des-16 12 11 425.204,532 144
31.987,4
Jan-17 13 00 415.836,200 169
35.361,3
Feb-17 14 08 495.058,312 196
42.077,0
Mar-17 15 25 631.155,375 225
41.214,9
Apr-17 16 50 659.439,200 256

Jumlah 136 555.982,028 4.767.767,758 1496

( 16 )( 4.767 .767,758 )(555.982,028)(136)

B= ( 16 )( 1496 )(136 2) = 123,296 MT
 555.982,028 (123,296)(136)
A= 16 - 16 = 33.700,864 MT

Jadi, Y(t) = 33.700,864 + 123,296t

Dengan demikian hasil peramalan Penerimaan LPG untuk bulan Mei 2017 Desember 2017
adalah sebagai berikut:

Y (17) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (17) = 35.796,890

Y (18) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (18) = 35.920,185

Y (19) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (18) = 36.043,481

Y (20) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (18) = 36.166,777

Y (21) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (18) = 36.290,072

Y (22) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (22) = 36.413,368

Y (23) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (23) = 36.536,664

Y (24) = 33.700,864 + 123,296 (24) = 36.659,959

Periode Frekuensi Y (t)

Bulan tY(t) t2
(t) (Banyaknya Kegiatan)
Jan-16 1 23 23 1
Feb-16 2 23 46 4
Mar-16 3 26 78 9
Apr-16 4 25 100 16
Mei-16 5 28 140 25
Jun-16 6 26 156 36
Jul-16 7 21 147 49
Agust-16 8 22 176 64
Sep-16 9 23 207 81
Okt-16 10 24 240 100
Nov-16 11 23 253 121
Des-16 12 23 276 144
Jan-17 13 27 351 169
Feb-17 14 23 322 196
Mar-17 15 30 450 225
Apr-17 16 26 416 256
Jumlah 136 393 3.381 1.496

( 16 )( 3.381 )(393)(136)
B= ( 16 )( 1496 ) (136 2) = 0,12 Penerimaan
 393 (123,296)(136)
A= 16 - 16 = 23,55 = 24 Penerimaan dalam satu bulan

Jadi, Y(t) = 23,55+ 0,12t

Dengan demikian hasil peramalan Frekuensi Penerimaan LPG untuk bulan Mei 2017
Desember 2017 adalah sebagai berikut:

Y (17) = 23,55 + 0,12 (17) = 25,575 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (18) = 23,55 + 0,12 (18) = 25,694 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (19) = 23,55 + 0,12 (18) = 25,813 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (20) = 23,55 + 0,12 (18) = 25,932 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (21) = 23,55 + 0,12 (18) = 26,051 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (22) = 23,55 + 0,12 (22) = 26,171 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (23) = 23,55 + 0,12 (23) = 26,290 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

Y (24) = 23,55 + 0,12 (24) = 26,409 = 26 Kegiatan Penerimaan

 Penyaluran Penerimaan Frekue Kuantitas
Bulan
LPG LPG nsi Permintaan LPG
Jan-16 34.921,780 34.201,318 23 1.487,014
Feb-16 33.577,522 33.546,712 23 1.458,553
Mar-16 37.638,448 37.317,893 26 1.435,304
Apr-16 40.710,494 41.488,086 25 1.659,523
Mei-16 40.339,364 39.694,219 28 1.417,651
Jun-16 37.780,750 38.654,294 26 1.486,704
Jul-16 25.629,882 24.684,768 21 1.175,465
Agust-16 22.931,406 22.908,197 22 1.041,282
Sep-16 30.275,096 31.066,191 23 1.350,704
Okt-16 33.197,406 33.983,672 24 1.415,986
Nov-16 33.649,681 32.362,284 23 1.407,056
Des-16 35.027,616 35.433,711 23 1.540,596
Jan-17 31.977,183 31.987,400 27 1.184,719
Feb-17 34.835,418 35.361,308 23 1.537,448
Mar-17 42.225,803 42.077,025 30 1.402,568
Apr-17 40.998,427 41.214,950 26 1.585,190

Mei-17 35.561,678 35.796,890 26 1.399,683

Jun-17 35.659,256 35.920,185 26 1.397,993

Jul-17 35.756,834 36.043,481 26 1.396,318

Agust-17 35.854,411 36.166,777 26 1.394,659

Sep-17 35.951,989 36.290,072 26 1.393,014

Okt-17 36.049,567 36.413,368 26 1.391,385

Nop-17 36.147,145 36.536,664 26 1.389,771

Des-17 36.244,723 36.659,959 26 1.388,171