Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Euromonitor International
March 2017
RETAILING IN THE US Passport I
Euromonitor International
RETAILING IN THE US Passport II
Euromonitor International
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RETAILING IN THE US
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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payment and prices. Digital technology is expected to be one of the key drivers of growth,
because consumers are becoming increasingly dependent on their digital devices to make
purchases. Innovation around conversational commerce (Amazons Echo devices), and other
emerging commerce platforms, such as Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), and
connected wearables and cars, will yield new opportunities for retailers. Furthermore, innovation
in terms of payment, store format and delivery are likely to continue to favour those retailers
which are best able to adapt.
Economic Outlook
The US economy slowed in 2016. Real GDP growth was 1.5%, which was down from 2.6% in
2015. Unemployment fell below full employment levels, whilst energy prices remained low,
creating a favourable environment for consumption growth. An increase in consumer borrowing
also supported private consumption. Household debt continued to decline, whilst the real
median household income was still below the level recorded in 2008. Wages were rising, but
growth was still rather slow. Growth in wages could provide the most important boost to
consumer spending. Despite low unemployment and inflation, the majority of consumers
maintain a frugal mindset, considering products based on price, and shopping around for the
best deals. Another important economic indicator, the housing market, is improving, but many
consumers who were expected to buy homes and boost the economy chose not to, because of
student loan debt. Nearly half of Americans admit that student loan debt is a major obstacle to
buying a home. As a result, growth was achieved by those retailers able to offer competitive
prices. Discounters and internet retailers benefited from this trend, offering consumers a variety
of products at affordable prices with reasonable shipping costs.
The economy is expected to see annual growth of about 1.5% over the period 2017-2020.
The rate of employment has been steadily rising for several years. The workforce participation
rate is also increasing. Unemployment was 5.3% in 2015, and fell to 4.9% in 2016. Wages are
being pushed up as the pool of unemployed shrinks. However, the upwards trend is a leisurely
one.
As the US income inequality gap widens, polarisation has been seen across many retail
channels. Retailers have had to appeal to two segments of the population: those who enjoyed
the financial gains of the post-recession economic growth, and those who did not benefit,
despite dropping unemployment and slight overall wage growth. Despite differences in incomes,
US consumers as a whole are demanding quality products at competitive prices with convenient
shipping options. Because of the rise in internet purchasing, in-store purchases have declined,
and some major retailers have trimmed down their store numbers or decreased the size of
newer stores in order to remain profitable. In some areas of retailing, particularly grocery stores,
this is thought to be the result of many middle- and upper-middle-income consumers switching
from traditional supermarkets to discounter chains such as Aldi, and then preferring to stay with
the lower-priced option as their financial situations improved. High-income consumers continue
to support luxury retailers, whilst lower- and middle-income consumers are looking for luxury
purchases at budget prices; supporting the decline of department stores and the rise of off-price
retailers.
Outlook
The 2016 election resulted in the victory of Donald J Trump, as well as Republican majorities
in the Senate and House of Representatives. Trump is regarded as a business magnate and
reality TV star in the US, but he will be the first US president with no political experience.
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Despite running on the Republican ticket, some of Trumps proposed policies clash with the
traditional conservative platform, and may not be approved by a conservative congress. This
has led to a high degree of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook for the US. Two policies
which are more likely to pass through congress and would have an impact on retailing are
potential import tariffs and business tax changes.
Trump vowed to discard the Trans-Pacific Partnership proposal, which would have benefited
retailers by facilitating imports from several manufacturing hub countries. He has also proposed
imposing significant import tariffs on China, a move that would hurt retailers through price
increases. Trump has proposed significantly reducing business taxes and closing business tax
loopholes which benefit certain industries more than others. Retailing is not an industry that has
access to many loopholes, so a decrease in business tax would likely benefit it as a whole. For
consumers, Trump is proposing cuts in income taxes, which will increase disposable income for
many Americans, which may also benefit retailing.
Outlook
Current challenges that retailers operating in the US face in achieving omnichannel
proficiency include changing the way they look at sales attribution, managing inventory,
overcoming organisational barriers, including legacy technology, solving the issue of last mile
delivery, offering a secure method of payment and appropriately evolving the role of their bricks-
and-mortar stores. Retailers will continue to innovate and work with outside logistics companies
to strengthen their omnichannel offerings.
Retailers operating in the US understand that they must continue to invest in various
platforms to achieve omnichannel proficiency. Key platforms on which retailers must be present
to achieve omnichannel proficiency include physical stores, web, mobile IoT and other emerging
platforms. Retailers must be aware of these platforms and continue to invest in them, as they
are the channels through which shoppers seek to access their brands. The ultimate aim is to
provide a seamless shopping experience at any time, anywhere, through any platform, and
therefore retailers will need to provide consistency through all channels.
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Convenience in retailing now extends beyond what was previously offered by traditional
convenience formats, such as convenience stores and forecourt retailers. Retailers in various
retail channels (such as drugstores/parapharmacies, variety/dollar stores and even
supermarkets and hypermarkets) are adapting to the demands of the modern and digital world
to offer convenience, leading to channel blurring, as well as advances in various online
commerce options.
In particular, online commerce and fulfilment (including delivery) are evolving to meet US
shoppers demand for convenience. Busy urban households and the older population both value
the convenience of delivery, and demand is likely to continue. Consequently, retailers across all
channels, including convenience stores, as well as supermarkets and hypermarkets, are
integrating e-commerce and m-commerce, and experimenting with various fulfilment methods to
offer convenience of delivery. Nevertheless, the cost of offering delivery services is high,
particularly for perishable grocery items and in areas with low population density, and shoppers
are unwilling to pay for the full cost of delivery. Consequently, innovation in terms of other
methods of fulfilment is on the rise in the US.
Outlook
In addition to new players entering the convenience space and innovation around the
fulfilment of online orders, other convenience offerings are emerging in the US. Examples
include replenishment with the touch of a button (Amazons Dash buttons), subscriptions for
goods online, and connected devices, including smart appliances, voice commerce devices and
connected cars (Amazon and Ford).
Demand for convenience in the US retailing landscape is expected to continue over the
forecast period, and new players in the convenience space will also continue to emerge. As
shoppers seek more convenience-based offerings, retailers will meet this demand by developing
methods to assist in frictionless shopping.
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Informal Retailing
There is limited reliable data regarding informal retailing in the US. The US Department of
Commerce estimates the channel to be worth approximately USD250 billion. In the 2015
fiscal year, US Customs and Border Protection seized 28,865 shipments of counterfeit goods
(up roughly 25% from 2014). These shipments had an estimated retail value of USD1.4 billion
(up 10% from 2014). The most popular goods in 2015 were apparel and accessories, with
watches, jewellery, handbags and wallets at the top of the list of categories with the highest
MSRP overall. 52% of the estimated value of counterfeit goods seized originated from
mainland China, down from 60% in 2014.
According to Havocscope LLC, a researcher in global illicit markets, counterfeiting and piracy
cost the US economy a market value of roughly USD225.0 billion annually. Although the
Havocscope market value includes items such as CDs, DVDs, batteries and fashion items, it
also includes illegal drugs and counterfeit monies. The US also ranks first amongst the 88
countries tracked.
Counterfeit goods, such as fake Ray-Ban sunglasses, Gucci handbags and apparel, are sold
anywhere, including on street corners, in stores, via mail order and online auctions (e.g.
eBay). The designer industry is working with federal and state law enforcement agencies to
stop the sale of counterfeit items. Anti-counterfeiting advocates argue that sales of illegal
items drive up prices for all consumers, and the counterfeits are of substandard quality.
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However, consumers continue to purchase these items (whether conscious of their counterfeit
nature or not), as the quality of counterfeit goods has improved dramatically, and can be
indistinguishable to the uneducated eye. Since the recession, counterfeit products have
expanded beyond aspirational and luxury goods to everyday branded items. Fake versions of
Victoria's Secret underwear and other apparel and accessories can even be found on street
stalls and in informal marketplaces in low-income urban areas.
Piracy is an area that has been an issue with regard to informal retailing. Knowledgeable
consumers are able to download a wealth of digital media, including software, films, books,
television shows and music, illegally. Whilst the marketplace has come under increased
scrutiny by law enforcement, it is unclear whether it has any measurable effect on retailing.
Counterfeit or stolen goods are commonly sold on the internet. Marketplace websites such as
eBay, free online classified website Craigslist and even online retailer behemoth Amazon are
three internet sites through which consumers can sometimes unknowingly purchase illegal
goods. Many of these retailers have developed systems to detect and remove fraudulent
listings. Consumer reviews can also play a role in preventing increasing sales of counterfeit
goods. If a consumer unknowingly purchases a counterfeit product, but later discovers that
the item is not genuine, he/she can leave reviews online for potential buyers to alert them,
and for the host marketplace to take down the listing and block the seller. However, once
blocked, many sellers create new accounts to continue selling counterfeit items. Furthermore,
citing a surge in counterfeit items, in 2016 Amazon instituted new rules regarding the sale of
certain brands, requiring sellers to provide documentation from manufacturers or distributors
and pay non-refundable fees in order to remain authorised to sell those brands on the site.
Opening Hours
Restricted retail opening hours stem from so-called blue laws, which were enforced to limit
the sale of goods on Sundays during colonial times. Most state regulations, however, date
from the 1950s, when nearly two-thirds of states imposed restrictions on opening hours. Since
then, many have revoked their trading time regulations, although some local ordinances and
laws still exist. Laws that remain on the books are normally associated with outlets which sell
alcohol.
The extension of retail opening hours in the US can be linked to changing residential patterns,
as many Americans have chosen to live in the suburbs and away from city centres. As most
employers are located in urban areas, this continues to increase the number of workers who
commute, as well as the length of the commute. Retailers have responded with longer
evening opening hours, in addition to opening on both Saturdays and Sundays. Opening
stores on a Sunday remained protected for a long time as a result of pressure from religious
groups. However, this is changing, and more state legislatures are accepting Sunday
opening.
Operating hours remain the same across most retail channels in the US. Most retail
operations, from the smallest retail stores to the largest hypermarkets, are open seven days a
week. However, in 2015, major retailers such as Wal-Mart and Kroger announced plans to
limit the long hours of their 24-hour stores. By closing some of these stores for a few hours
each night, these retailers are seeking to make better use of their resources by having
employees spend the hours restocking shelves and preparing stores for peak shopping
periods.
There is not much variance across retail channels or geography in terms of opening hours. In
addition, many retailers have become inclined to stay open for full operating hours, or at least
partial operating hours, on national holidays, depending on their product offerings. As most
Americans have the day off work or school, retailers realise this is an important time to stay
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open, as consumers have more free time and the ability to shop. Also, if they are cooking or
preparing a holiday meal, they may need last-minute ingredients and/or supplies, making
grocery retailers more likely to stay open.
Those Americans who support more restrictive hours believe this will encourage family ties,
eliminate favouritism for large businesses over small businesses, which typically cannot
compete on hours, and eliminate concerns for those who are religious. Those who support
less restrictive hours argue that this increases convenience for consumers, allows for more
efficient use of facilities and, overall, boosts employment and economic growth.
Over the last 10 years, many non-grocery retailers began opening their doors on
Thanksgiving, the holiday that precedes Black Friday, which is a renowned annual shopping
event in the US. However, there was a backlash to this trend in 2015 and 2016, with
numerous major retailers publicly announcing that they would be closed for Thanksgiving
Day, mainly to boost morale by allowing employees to enjoy the holiday. In 2016, these
retailers included Nordstrom, Dillards, Staples, Sams Club, Costco, IKEA, Office Depot,
HHGregg, DSW Shoe Warehouse, Home Depot and others. Overall, the number of
Thanksgiving Day in-store shoppers was down from previous years, and there is growing
evidence that staying open on the holiday may not offer a sufficiently strong financial
incentive, especially when most major retailers are able to offer the same sales to online
shoppers.
For many retailers, store hours as traditionally defined may become less relevant in the
future, due to the rise of e-commerce. Key retailers, including Amazon and Wal-Mart, are
constantly looking for ways to improve their delivery service, emphasising the any time,
anywhere, any device concept. As more consumers shop online for all types of goods
(including groceries), the emphasis on the length of operating hours may weaken.
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One notable trend in the US has been the rise of pure play online retailers opening physical
locations. Examples include Amazon, which started opening device-focused pop-up stores in
2013. It now has 21 pop-ups in shopping centres across the US, and has plans to introduce
dozens more in the next year. Amazon also announced plans to open small format bricks-
and-mortar grocery stores in 2017, some specifically designed for drive-through pick-up of
items ordered online. Other examples include Bonobos, The Tie Bar and Warby Parker. Such
retailers maintain smaller physical stores, and thus inventory, emphasising the experience,
with some enabling easy access to online purchases in these stores.
Luxury retailers are typically located in shopping centres or lifestyle centres, as well as on
high streets in major cities. Discount retailers are usually located in suburban and rural
locations, on the outskirts of major cities. However, this is changing somewhat, as operators
are now courting discounters to become tenants within their shopping centres.
Seasonality
Christmas
Date: 25 December.
Shopping season: November-December.
Primary products bought: Fresh and packaged food for family meals, Christmas-themed
apparel and homewares, Christmas trees, electronics and individual gifts for all ages (with an
emphasis on toys and games for children).
Retailer strategy: The run-up to the Christmas holiday is punctuated by a large number of
sales, including Black Friday, the unofficial start of the shopping season, when a number of
retailers hold their largest store sales of the year to increase footfall. Popular store sales on
Black Friday include doorbuster deals, which offer a handful of popular items at deeply
discounted prices, generally sold for a limited period of time in the earlier part of the day to
bring in customers. This is followed by Cyber Monday, during which retailers focus their sales
online. The frequent use of sales for longer periods of time, both in-store and online, became
more widespread over the review period. Consumers of all ages are targeted; however,
children are often a focus, as the recipients of the most gifts.
Back to school
Shopping season: Mid-July to mid-September.
Primary products bought: School supplies, and personal accessories and apparel for children
and young adults. Consumer electronic devices are increasingly purchased, thanks to
decreasing prices and the use of technology in education.
Retailer strategy: A number of advertisements are aired towards the end of the summer, and
steep discounts on a few key items are made to drive traffic and persuade consumers to buy
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products beyond school supplies whilst in store. Sometimes centred around the Labor Day
holiday (the first Monday in September), thanks to its proximity to school start dates and the
day off from work and school that many receive thanks to its status as a national holiday and
the unofficial end of summer.
Christmas in July
Shopping season: July
Primary products bought: Consumer electronics, individual gifts for all ages, household
products, housewares, home appliances, etc.
Retailer strategy: Many retailers offer semi-annual sales. In 2016, several retail giants, such
as Amazon (calling the event Prime Day), Wal-Mart and Target joined in, with consumers of
all ages being targeted.
Mothers Day
Shopping Season: May
Primary products bought: Flowers, jewellery, confectionery, womens apparel.
Retailer strategy: Retailers offer a variety of sales, issuing advertisements for discounts
targeting a broad range of customers shopping for the common purpose of celebrating their
mothers. Many offer deals on special combinations of products, free shipping and gift
wrapping, along with ideas for last-minute gifts, whilst some host in-store events.
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checking-in through the stores app, and later walk out with their items without ever having
visited a cash register. If this concept is successful, it could dramatically change the payment
environment in retailing.
Numerous grocery store chains are now offering their own delivery services to compete with
Instacart, Postmates, and other third party delivery services. Meijer, Albertsons and Safeway
were amongst the major supermarkets that introduced new delivery services in 2016, whilst
third party delivery services, including Postmates, Instacart, Google Express and SideCar, are
also trying to offer shorter delivery times.
Shipping infrastructure in the US is relatively robust, with rail, truck and plane options that
work well, despite the size of the nation and general underinvestment in infrastructure. There
are numerous shipping companies, such as Federal Express and UPS, as well as the United
States Post Office. In some cases, retailers use third party logistics providers, which are
responsible for part or all of the supply chain for delivery.
The ways in which customers have products delivered may change over the forecast period.
Retail giants are experimenting with alternative options to improve delivery. Amazon in
particular has set the gold standard for shipping, with two-day shipping as part of its Prime
membership. The online retailer continues to raise the bar on expedited shipping, offering 1-2
hour shipping with Prime Now from 2015. The service is only available in selected cities for
now, but the company is working to expand into more areas in the near future. Furthermore,
Amazon recently introduced Amazon Air, piloted in the UK, which uses drones as an
alternative delivery method.
Offering successful delivery services has proven to be a difficult task, as can be inferred from
several noteworthy examples of failed attempts. Uber, Lyft and eBay have all made
unsuccessful attempts to offer delivery services (although Uber is making another attempt). In
the summer of 2014, Uber started experimenting with an on-demand delivery service called
UberEssentials in selected regions of the US. However, by January 2015 the company
announced it was cancelling the trial. Uber offered a limited selection of products, and prices
were likely too high for delivery. It promptly replaced this model by introducing UberRush in
selected cities in late 2015. Time will tell if this version will have more success than its
predecessor.
Lyft, Ubers prime competitor, also briefly experimented with local delivery on a small scale,
but ultimately did not go through with it. As of August 2015, the company had no plans to
pursue local delivery, and instead focused exclusively on its core offering of on-demand rides.
eBay also shut down its same-day delivery service, eBay Now, in the summer of 2015.
According to the company, eBay Now was planned to be a pilot programme, and based on
the results from the trial period the company will discontinue the service and seek others
which will add value for its customers. All three of these companies are strong players in their
relative industries, and have tried and either struggled to succeed, or failed in the delivery
service space. There are significant logistical challenges to overcome, and the race to see
which player ultimately gets it right is still ongoing.
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which gives shoppers access to additional deals by scanning products with their mobile
phones. In addition, some retailers are participating in discount apps such as Shopkick, which
give customers an added incentive to enter their stores by offering them points for walk-ins,
product scans and purchases. Consumers can use their points to earn gift cards for major
retailers.
Online retailers using a dynamic pricing model: With the rise of e-commerce, the competition
is also on the rise. The newest, most highly-anticipated e-commerce player is Jet.com, which
was acquired by Wal-Mart in 2016. Jet.com promises to deliver cheap prices through the use
of a dynamic pricing model, offering consumers various options to save money at the cost of
convenience and immediacy. Examples include paying with a debit card instead of a credit
card, ordering multiple items from the same vendor and waiving the right to return products.
MARKET DATA
Table 1 Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: Value 2011-2016
USD bn
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USD bn
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Note 2: Off-price retailing not included in store-based retailing total to avoid double counting as off-price retailing
is a duplicate category already accounted for within apparel and footwear specialists and department
stores.
outlet
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% unit growth
2015/16 2011-16 CAGR 2011/16 Total
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Note 2: Off-price retailing not included in store-based retailing total to avoid double counting as off-price retailing
is a duplicate category already accounted for within apparel and footwear specialists and department
stores.
USD bn
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Table 9 Non-Grocery Specialists: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2011-2016
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USD bn
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
outlet
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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% unit growth
2015/16 2011-16 CAGR 2011/16 Total
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Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources
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sites/outlets
Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Barnes & Noble Barnes & Noble Inc 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Walgreens Walgreen Co 6.3 - - -
CVS CVS Caremark Corp 6.0 - - -
Others 66.9 66.2 65.0 63.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources
sites/outlets
Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2013 2014 2015 2016
Home Depot Home Depot Inc, The 19,168.2 19,168.2 19,168.2 19,168.2
Lowe's Lowe's Cos Inc 17,414.3 17,144.9 17,259.6 17,288.3
Walgreens Walgreen Co - 8,165.4 8,060.4 8,050.3
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(Walgreens Boots
Alliance Inc)
CVS CVS Health Corp - 7,064.6 7,437.2 7,431.0
Menards Menards Inc 5,503.9 5,503.9 5,534.0 5,534.0
Tractor Supply Co Tractor Supply Co 4,093.9 4,435.9 4,787.5 4,893.7
Ace Cooperative Ace Hardware Corp 4,087.6 4,166.0 4,224.8 4,265.9
Stores
Rite Aid Rite Aid Corp 4,268.9 4,245.7 4,194.9 4,194.0
Burlington Coat Burlington Coat Factory 3,716.1 3,869.4 4,052.0 4,088.5
Factory Warehouse Warehouse Corp
Hobby Lobby Hobby Lobby Stores Inc 2,963.6 3,122.0 3,377.5 3,862.9
Best Buy Best Buy Co Inc 3,775.6 3,755.7 3,716.0 3,716.0
True Value True Value Hardware Corp 3,255.2 3,225.4 3,203.6 3,199.2
Bed Bath & Beyond Bed Bath & Beyond Inc 2,998.9 2,998.9 2,989.7 2,995.8
Dick's Sporting Goods Dick's Sporting Goods Inc 2,438.3 2,640.7 2,830.2 2,849.9
PETsMART PetSmart Inc 2,453.7 2,577.8 2,620.2 2,690.5
Ross Ross Stores Inc 2,684.9 2,824.2 2,657.0 2,630.7
Barnes & Noble Barnes & Noble Inc 2,586.4 2,597.6 2,616.6 2,612.4
TJ Maxx TJX Cos Inc, The 2,295.8 2,365.4 2,430.2 2,488.4
Office Depot Office Depot Inc 3,405.8 2,853.7 2,502.2 2,487.6
Toys "R" Us Toys "R" Us Inc 2,363.4 2,378.3 2,363.4 2,389.5
Walgreens Walgreen Co 7,813.1 - - -
CVS CVS Caremark Corp 6,909.5 - - -
Others Others 355,570.5 346,555.3 344,460.8 341,378.6
Total Total 459,767.7 451,659.0 450,486.2 448,215.6
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources
USD bn
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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USD bn
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
outlet
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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% unit growth
2016/17 2016-21 CAGR 2016/21 Total
USD bn
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Table 33 Non-Grocery Specialists Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space
2016-2021
USD bn
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
outlet
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Specialist Retailers
Home and Garden 118,813.0 116,653.0 114,796.0 113,566.0 112,759.0 112,290.0
Specialist Retailers
Leisure and Personal 114,178.0 113,248.0 112,268.0 111,244.0 110,208.0 109,216.0
Goods Specialist
Retailers
Other Non-Grocery 32,221.0 31,691.0 31,211.0 30,762.0 30,354.0 30,008.0
Specialists
Non-Grocery Specialists 529,934.0 526,735.0 523,936.0 521,994.0 520,365.0 519,130.0
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
% unit growth
2016/17 2016-21 CAGR 2016/21 Total
DEFINITIONS
GBO refers to global brand owner, which is the ultimate owner of a brand.
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NBO refers to national brand owner, which is the company licensed to distribute a brand on
behalf of a GBO. The NBO may be a subsidiary of a GBO or it may be a completely separate
company. Share tables at both GBO and at NBO level are provided in the report. Reference
to shares in the report analysis is at NBO level.
SOURCES
Sources used during the research included the following:
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