Rami HH 27june2017 v2

First version of
Expected limits for

HH to bbZZ to 2b 2l 2nu
Rami Kamalieddin, Ilya Kravchenko (UNL)
Michele de Gruttola (CERN)
Lesya Shchutska (ETH)
HH meeting, 27 June 2017

2
OUTLINE
Update since last talk
Analysis strategy recap
Mass boundary for low/high mass splitting
Optimization of selection BDT cut
Distributions of BDT and HH_mt in SR and CRs
Datacard with some systematics
From r to limits
Conclusions
OPEN questions
Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

3
Update since last talk
First, big thanks to Giacomo and Maxime for useful suggestions regarding
analysis! We took all the suggestions into account and present them today.
Also thanks to Olivier and Giacomo for the help with the McM request for
the production of the dedicated bbZZ2b2l2 samples. We really hope to
have them ready on a time scale of a month.

4
Analysis strategy

5
Recap and final decision
Object Select Prepare input Limits

selection Candidate to Combine
Requirements BDT with nine Simple shape Derive the

on leptons, jets variables of HH_mt best limits
and met we can
Our objective is:

Set 95% CL limit on (pp X hh) BR(hh bbZZ bbllmet ) vs mass of X
The method we will use to achieve it:

Binned shape analysis using Higgs Combination Tool

6
Mass boundary for low/high mass

splitting of the 250 1000 GeV range

7
Test of several boundary option

To increase low statistics, we stitch signal samples with the weight 1,
separating 2501000 GeV range into low/high mass regions.
Then we test four mass splitting cases:
Mass boundary low mass region ROC high mass region ROC
300 GeV 0.9138 0.9805

350 GeV 0.9037 0.988
400 GeV 0.9074 0.9928
450 GeV 0.9086 0.9957
We chose the fourth option.
For the analysis, doing the low/high

mass BDT training, we use the same
set of nine variables:

8
Optimization of the BDT cut

9
Limit vs cut on BDT

For the 1st version of the expected limits, we pick 260 and 400 GeV
samples in the low mass region
For each BDT cut, produce HH_mt shape and derive expected limit.
Scan the whole BDT range to find the best value of the limit.
After cut at 0.5, limit growths for 260 GeV case with BDT cut value
For simplicity, for both low mass region samples we pick cut at 0.5
Of course, when new samples arrive, will optimize BDT cut for
each mass point separately
10
Limit vs cut on BDT, cont.

In the high mass region, we pick 650 and 900 GeV samples:
Both samples show the best limit at the BDT cut of 0.95

11
Distributions of BDT and HH_mt for SR/CRs
SR: Dilepton mass = [76, 106], Hbb mass = [90, 150]

CRDY: as in SR but invert cut on Hbb mass
CRTT: as in SR but invert cut on Dilepton mass

12
Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 260 GeV
SR CRDY CRTT
CMS Preliminary 35.9 fb-1 (13 TeV) CMS Preliminary 35.9 fb-1 (13 TeV)
Events
Events
Data(muons) tt Data(muons) tt
CMS Preliminary 35.9 fb-1 (13 TeV) 104 DY ZH DY ZH
Events
tt Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top

wwBGravM260x1200000 zzBGravM260x250000 103 wwBGravM260x3000 zzBGravM260x40000
DY ZH Total stat unc
Dibosons Single top Total stat unc
wwBGravM260x300000 zzBGravM260x100000
104 Total stat unc
103
102
3
10
102
10
102
10
1
1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Data/MC
Data/MC
10
1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
BDT response BDT response
Data/MC
1 1
BDT response
1
0.5 0.5
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.5 BDT response BDT response
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
BDT response
CMS Preliminary 35.9 fb-1 (13 TeV) CMS Preliminary 35.9 fb-1 (13 TeV) CMS Preliminary 35.9 fb-1 (13 TeV)
Events
Events
Events
Data(muons) tt DY ZH 800 DY ZH
500 Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top
1000 DY ZH
wwBGravM260x50000 zzBGravM260x10000 wwBGravM260x1200 zzBGravM260x25000
Dibosons Single top Total stat unc Total stat unc
wwBGravM260x25000 zzBGravM260x5000 700
Total stat unc
400
600
800
500
300
600 400
200 300
400
200
100
100
200
1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Data/MC
Data/MC
"HiggsHiggson" transverse mass [GeV] "HiggsHiggson" transverse mass [GeV]
1 1
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0.5 0.5
"HiggsHiggson" transverse mass [GeV] 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

13
SR CRDY CRTT
Events
Events
Events
tt Data(muons) tt Data(muons) tt
DY ZH 104 DY ZH DY ZH
Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top
wwBGravM400x300000 zzBGravM400x65000 wwBGravM400x600000 zzBGravM400x160000 103 wwBGravM400x1500 zzBGravM400x32000
104 Total stat unc Total stat unc Total stat unc
103
102
103
102
10
102
10
1
10
1.51 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Data/MC
Data/MC
Data/MC
BDT response BDT response BDT response

1 1 1
0.5 0.5 0.5

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Events
Events
Events
Data(muons) tt DY ZH 800 DY ZH
500 Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top
1000 DY ZH
wwBGravM400x25000 zzBGravM400x9000 wwBGravM400x1000 zzBGravM400x12000
Dibosons Single top Total stat unc Total stat unc
wwBGravM400x15000 zzBGravM400x3000 700
Total stat unc
400
600
800
500
300
600 400
200 300
400
200
100
100
200
1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Data/MC
Data/MC
1 1
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0.5 0.5

14
SR CRDY CRTT
105
Events
Events
Events
105 DY ZH DY ZH DY ZH
zzBGravM650x35000 wwBGravM650x100000 zzBGravM650x280000 wwBGravM650x2000000 104 zzBGravM650x50000 wwBGravM650x3000
Total stat unc Total stat unc Total stat unc
104
104
103
3
10
103
102
102
102
10
10
10 1
1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Data/MC
Data/MC
Data/MC
1 1 1
0.5 0.5 0.5

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Events
Events
20 16
Events
Data(muons) tt DY ZH DY ZH
DY ZH Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top
zzBGravM650x500 wwBGravM650x1200 12 zzBGravM650x150 wwBGravM650x12
18 Dibosons Single top 14 Total stat unc Total stat unc
zzBGravM650x50 wwBGravM650x300
Total stat unc
16 12 10
14 10
8
12
8
6
10
6
8 4
4
6
2
2
4
1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
2
Data/MC
Data/MC
1 1
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0.5 0.5

15
SR CRDY CRTT
105
Events
Events
Events
105 DY ZH DY ZH DY ZH
zzBGravM900x35000 wwBGravM900x100000 zzBGravM900x280000 wwBGravM900x3000000 104 zzBGravM900x35000 wwBGravM900x2200
Total stat unc Total stat unc Total stat unc
104
104
103
103
103
102
102
102
10
10
10 1
1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.51 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Data/MC
Data/MC
Data/MC
1 1 1
0.5 0.5 0.5

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Events
Events
20 16
Events
Data(muons) tt DY ZH DY ZH
DY ZH Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top
zzBGravM900x500 wwBGravM900x2400 12 zzBGravM900x150 wwBGravM900x12
18 Dibosons Single top 14 Total stat unc Total stat unc
zzBGravM900x50 wwBGravM900x300
Total stat unc
16 12 10
14 10
8
12
8
6
10
6
8 4
4
6
2
2
4
1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1.50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
2
Data/MC
Data/MC
1 1
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0.5 0.5

16
Datacard with some systematics

17
900 GeV, signal region

18
From r to limits

19
Derivation of the expected limits
As shown in the datacard, we keep both parts of the bbVV signal for the input
to combine: zz and ww contributions
For signal samples we used xsec of 1pb times zzBR of 0.0012 or wwBR of 0.0266
We run simple command:
combine -M Asymptotic -t -1 m massValue --run blind comb_card_massValue.txt
Obtained value of r we multiply by 1000 to get 95% CL limit on (pp X hh)

BR(hh bbVV bbllmet ) in fb, with the emphasis on the ZZ selection

20
Fit results
Mass DY_norm TT_norm
260 GeV 1.01455 +/- 0.0206502 1.01712 +/- 0.010975
400 GeV 1.08347 +/- 0.0229367 1.01963 +/- 0.0116567
650 GeV 1.03729 +/- 0.0715037 0.856639 +/- 0.120746
900 GeV 1.01651 +/- 0.0709522 1.00332 +/- 0.120817

21
Expected limits
260 GeV 400 GeV 650 GeV 900 GeV

Expected 2.5%: r < 16.9127 Expected 2.5%: r < 24.9661 Expected 2.5%: r < 1.3921 Expected 2.5%: r < 0.2622

22
Open questions

23
Limits are not great
Hypothetical reasons:
Tighten selection on ZZ/decrease WW in CRTT?
Low statistics is the biggest issue?
Some main systematics is missing or is unnecessary
Try another combine method
Wrong parameters:
xsec for signal
in the datacard

24
Conclusions
Analysis strategy is finalized
Optimization of the BDT cut is shown
Machinery for the derivation of the limits is in place:

suggestions to improve limits will be be taken into account
missing systematics will be added
reoptimization will be done once new big samples arrive
Desperately need specific bbZZ signal samples

25
BACK UP for
HH bbZZ 2b 2l 2nu

26
2b 2l 2 signature
MET from the off shell Z* boson
H ZZ*
2 leptons (eles, muons) from on shell Z
H bb
2 b-jets from the Higgs bb
In our analysis we have HH decay through:

H to bb to give the highest BR
H to ZZ*, with Z to ll to give important handles,
which improve sensitivity
* Pic based on the plot from bbWW team
27
Loose selection for BDT training
Apply almost no cuts to give BDT as much info as possible.

Few cuts though had to be applied to avoid NaNs
HH common sense preselection:

Dilepton (ee/) mass > 50 GeV
2 Jets: pt > 30 GeV and || < 2.4
75 GeV < Hbb mass < 175 GeV
56 GeV < Dilepton mass < 126 GeV
Transverse mass of HH > 100 GeV

28
HH candidate and SR/CRs
Loose selection for BDT (previous slide)

Cut on BDT 0.5 or 0.95 (signal sample or > 450 GeV)
SR: Dilepton mass = [76, 106], Hbb mass = [90, 150]

CRDY: as in SR but invert cut on Hbb mass
CRTT: as in SR but invert cut on Dilepton mass

29
Datacard: 900 GeV, CRDY

30
Datacard: 900 GeV, CRTT

Rami HH 27june2017 v2

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First version of

Expected limits for

HH meeting, 27 June 2017

Mass boundary for low/high mass splitting

Optimization of selection BDT cut

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt in SR and CRs

Datacard with some systematics

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Update since last talk

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Recap and final decision

Object Select Prepare input Limits

Requirements BDT with nine Simple shape Derive the

Our objective is:

The method we will use to achieve it:

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Mass boundary for low/high mass

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Test of several boundary option

Then we test four mass splitting cases:

300 GeV 0.9138 0.9805

We chose the fourth option.

For the analysis, doing the low/high

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Optimization of the BDT cut

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Limit vs cut on BDT

Limit vs cut on BDT, cont.

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt for SR/CRs

SR: Dilepton mass = [76, 106], Hbb mass = [90, 150]

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 260 GeV

tt Dibosons Single top Dibosons Single top

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 400 GeV

BDT response BDT response BDT response

0.5 0.5 0.5

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 650 GeV

0.5 0.5 0.5

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 900 GeV

0.5 0.5 0.5

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Datacard with some systematics

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

900 GeV, signal region

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Derivation of the expected limits

We run simple command:

combine -M Asymptotic -t -1 m massValue --run blind comb_card_massValue.txt

Obtained value of r we multiply by 1000 to get 95% CL limit on (pp X hh)

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

Mass DY_norm TT_norm

260 GeV 1.01455 +/- 0.0206502 1.01712 +/- 0.010975

400 GeV 1.08347 +/- 0.0229367 1.01963 +/- 0.0116567

650 GeV 1.03729 +/- 0.0715037 0.856639 +/- 0.120746

900 GeV 1.01651 +/- 0.0709522 1.00332 +/- 0.120817

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 HH meeting 27 June 2017

260 GeV 400 GeV 650 GeV 900 GeV