Ever wondered how many Battle Cards you needed to have a 50% or 80% chance

of winning a battle in Hannibal vs. Carthage?

I ran simulations of battles to find the answer. Given a specified attacker,
battle ratings for each general, and Carthage Battle Cards, I calculated how
many Roman Battle cards would be required for the Roman player to win 50% of
the time and 80% of the time respectively. To run the calculation, I played out
each scenario 10,000 times with random hands drawn from the deck every time.
Carthage General Battle Rating 4 assumes Hannibal (with Probe benefit)
I assume each player plays their cards in order of what % of each card type
they have. E.g. with 6 frontal assault and 5 Flank left, Flank left would be played
first because it's a higher percent of that card type. Double Envelopments are always
played second last and reserve last. For Hannibal, Probe is played between DE and Reserve.

Attacker Battle Rating Carthage Cards Roman Cards

Roman General Carthage General 50% win 80% win
ROME 1 4 5 7 11
ROME 1 4 6 8 12
ROME 1 4 7 9 14
ROME 1 4 8 10 15
ROME 1 4 9 12 16
ROME 1 4 10 13 17
ROME 1 4 11 14 19
ROME 1 4 12 15 20
ROME 1 4 13 16 -1
ROME 1 4 14 17 -1
ROME 1 4 15 18 -1
ROME 1 4 16 19 -1
ROME 1 4 17 20 -1
ROME 1 4 18 -1 -1
ROME 1 4 19 -1 -1
ROME 1 4 20 -1 -1
ROME 2 4 5 6 10
ROME 2 4 6 7 11
ROME 2 4 7 8 12
ROME 2 4 8 9 14
ROME 2 4 9 10 15
ROME 2 4 10 12 16
ROME 2 4 11 13 17
ROME 2 4 12 14 18
ROME 2 4 13 15 19
ROME 2 4 14 16 20
ROME 2 4 15 17 -1
ROME 2 4 16 18 -1
ROME 2 4 17 19 -1
ROME 2 4 18 20 -1
ROME 2 4 19 20 -1
ROME 2 4 20 -1 -1
ROME 3 4 5 6 9
ROME 3 4 6 7 10
ROME 3 4 7 8 11
ROME 3 4 8 9 12
ROME 3 4 9 10 14
ROME 3 4 10 11 15
ROME 3 4 11 12 16
ROME 3 4 12 13 17
ROME 3 4 13 14 18
ROME 3 4 14 15 18
ROME 3 4 15 16 20
ROME 3 4 16 17 -1
ROME 3 4 17 18 -1
ROME 3 4 18 19 -1
ROME 3 4 19 20 -1
ROME 3 4 20 -1 -1
ROME 4 4 5 5 8
ROME 4 4 6 6 9
ROME 4 4 7 7 10
ROME 4 4 8 8 11
ROME 4 4 9 9 12
ROME 4 4 10 10 14
ROME 4 4 11 11 14
ROME 4 4 12 12 16
ROME 4 4 13 13 17
ROME 4 4 14 14 18
ROME 4 4 15 15 19
ROME 4 4 16 16 20
ROME 4 4 17 17 -1
ROME 4 4 18 18 -1
ROME 4 4 19 19 -1
ROME 4 4 20 20 -1
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
CARTH 1 4 5 9 13
CARTH 1 4 6 10 15
CARTH 1 4 7 11 16
CARTH 1 4 8 12 17
CARTH 1 4 9 13 18
CARTH 1 4 10 14 19
CARTH 1 4 11 15 -1
CARTH 1 4 12 16 -1
CARTH 1 4 13 17 -1
CARTH 1 4 14 18 -1
CARTH 1 4 15 19 -1
CARTH 1 4 16 20 -1
CARTH 1 4 17 -1 -1
CARTH 1 4 18 -1 -1
CARTH 1 4 19 -1 -1
CARTH 1 4 20 -1 -1
CARTH 2 4 5 8 12
CARTH 2 4 6 9 13
CARTH 2 4 7 10 15
CARTH 2 4 8 11 16
CARTH 2 4 9 12 17
CARTH 2 4 10 13 18
CARTH 2 4 11 14 19
CARTH 2 4 12 15 20
CARTH 2 4 13 16 -1
CARTH 2 4 14 17 -1
CARTH 2 4 15 18 -1
CARTH 2 4 16 19 -1
CARTH 2 4 17 20 -1
CARTH 2 4 18 -1 -1
CARTH 2 4 19 -1 -1
CARTH 2 4 20 -1 -1
CARTH 3 4 5 7 11
CARTH 3 4 6 8 12
CARTH 3 4 7 9 13
CARTH 3 4 8 10 15
CARTH 3 4 9 11 15
CARTH 3 4 10 12 16
CARTH 3 4 11 13 18
CARTH 3 4 12 14 19
CARTH 3 4 13 15 20
CARTH 3 4 14 16 20
CARTH 3 4 15 17 -1
CARTH 3 4 16 18 -1
CARTH 3 4 17 19 -1
CARTH 3 4 18 20 -1
CARTH 3 4 19 20 -1
CARTH 3 4 20 -1 -1
CARTH 4 4 5 7 10
CARTH 4 4 6 8 12
CARTH 4 4 7 9 12
CARTH 4 4 8 10 14
CARTH 4 4 9 10 14
CARTH 4 4 10 11 15
CARTH 4 4 11 12 16
CARTH 4 4 12 13 17
CARTH 4 4 13 14 18
CARTH 4 4 14 15 19
CARTH 4 4 15 16 20
CARTH 4 4 16 17 -1
CARTH 4 4 17 18 -1
CARTH 4 4 18 19 -1
CARTH 4 4 19 20 -1
CARTH 4 4 20 -1 -1
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
ROME 1 3 5 5 9
ROME 1 3 6 6 10
ROME 1 3 7 8 12
ROME 1 3 8 9 14
ROME 1 3 9 10 15
ROME 1 3 10 11 16
ROME 1 3 11 13 17
ROME 1 3 12 14 19
ROME 1 3 13 15 20
ROME 1 3 14 16 -1
ROME 1 3 15 17 -1
ROME 1 3 16 18 -1
ROME 1 3 17 19 -1
ROME 1 3 18 20 -1
ROME 1 3 19 -1 -1
ROME 1 3 20 -1 -1
ROME 2 3 5 5 8
ROME 2 3 6 6 9
ROME 2 3 7 7 11
ROME 2 3 8 8 12
ROME 2 3 9 9 13
ROME 2 3 10 10 14
ROME 2 3 11 11 16
ROME 2 3 12 13 17
ROME 2 3 13 14 18
ROME 2 3 14 15 19
ROME 2 3 15 16 20
ROME 2 3 16 17 -1
ROME 2 3 17 18 -1
ROME 2 3 18 19 -1
ROME 2 3 19 20 -1
ROME 2 3 20 -1 -1
ROME 3 3 5 5 7
ROME 3 3 6 5 8
ROME 3 3 7 6 10
ROME 3 3 8 8 11
ROME 3 3 9 9 12
ROME 3 3 10 10 13
ROME 3 3 11 11 14
ROME 3 3 12 12 15
ROME 3 3 13 13 17
ROME 3 3 14 14 18
ROME 3 3 15 15 19
ROME 3 3 16 16 20
ROME 3 3 17 17 -1
ROME 3 3 18 18 -1
ROME 3 3 19 19 -1
ROME 3 3 20 20 -1
ROME 4 3 5 5 6
ROME 4 3 6 5 8
ROME 4 3 7 6 9
ROME 4 3 8 7 10
ROME 4 3 9 8 11
ROME 4 3 10 9 12
ROME 4 3 11 10 13
ROME 4 3 12 11 14
ROME 4 3 13 12 15
ROME 4 3 14 13 16
ROME 4 3 15 14 17
ROME 4 3 16 15 18
ROME 4 3 17 16 19
ROME 4 3 18 17 20
ROME 4 3 19 18 -1
ROME 4 3 20 19 -1
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
CARTH 1 3 5 9 13
CARTH 1 3 6 10 15
CARTH 1 3 7 11 16
CARTH 1 3 8 12 17
CARTH 1 3 9 13 18
CARTH 1 3 10 14 19
CARTH 1 3 11 15 20
CARTH 1 3 12 16 -1
CARTH 1 3 13 17 -1
CARTH 1 3 14 18 -1
CARTH 1 3 15 19 -1
CARTH 1 3 16 20 -1
CARTH 1 3 17 -1 -1
CARTH 1 3 18 -1 -1
CARTH 1 3 19 -1 -1
CARTH 1 3 20 -1 -1
CARTH 2 3 5 8 12
CARTH 2 3 6 9 13
CARTH 2 3 7 10 14
CARTH 2 3 8 11 15
CARTH 2 3 9 12 16
CARTH 2 3 10 13 17
CARTH 2 3 11 14 19
CARTH 2 3 12 14 19
CARTH 2 3 13 16 -1
CARTH 2 3 14 17 -1
CARTH 2 3 15 17 -1
CARTH 2 3 16 19 -1
CARTH 2 3 17 20 -1
CARTH 2 3 18 20 -1
CARTH 2 3 19 -1 -1
CARTH 2 3 20 -1 -1
CARTH 3 3 5 7 11
CARTH 3 3 6 8 12
CARTH 3 3 7 9 13
CARTH 3 3 8 10 14
CARTH 3 3 9 11 15
CARTH 3 3 10 11 16
CARTH 3 3 11 12 17
CARTH 3 3 12 13 18
CARTH 3 3 13 14 19
CARTH 3 3 14 15 20
CARTH 3 3 15 16 -1
CARTH 3 3 16 17 -1
CARTH 3 3 17 18 -1
CARTH 3 3 18 19 -1
CARTH 3 3 19 20 -1
CARTH 3 3 20 -1 -1
CARTH 4 3 5 6 10
CARTH 4 3 6 7 11
CARTH 4 3 7 8 12
CARTH 4 3 8 9 13
CARTH 4 3 9 10 14
CARTH 4 3 10 11 15
CARTH 4 3 11 12 16
CARTH 4 3 12 13 17
CARTH 4 3 13 14 18
CARTH 4 3 14 15 19
CARTH 4 3 15 15 20
CARTH 4 3 16 16 -1
CARTH 4 3 17 17 -1
CARTH 4 3 18 18 -1
CARTH 4 3 19 19 -1
CARTH 4 3 20 20 -1
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
ROME 1 2 5 5 7
ROME 1 2 6 5 9
ROME 1 2 7 6 11
ROME 1 2 8 8 12
ROME 1 2 9 9 13
ROME 1 2 10 10 15
ROME 1 2 11 11 16
ROME 1 2 12 12 17
ROME 1 2 13 14 18
ROME 1 2 14 15 20
ROME 1 2 15 16 -1
ROME 1 2 16 17 -1
ROME 1 2 17 18 -1
ROME 1 2 18 19 -1
ROME 1 2 19 20 -1
ROME 1 2 20 -1 -1
ROME 2 2 5 5 7
ROME 2 2 6 5 8
ROME 2 2 7 6 9
ROME 2 2 8 7 11
ROME 2 2 9 8 12
ROME 2 2 10 9 13
ROME 2 2 11 11 14
ROME 2 2 12 12 15
ROME 2 2 13 13 16
ROME 2 2 14 14 17
ROME 2 2 15 15 18
ROME 2 2 16 16 20
ROME 2 2 17 17 -1
ROME 2 2 18 18 -1
ROME 2 2 19 19 -1
ROME 2 2 20 20 -1
ROME 3 2 5 5 6
ROME 3 2 6 5 7
ROME 3 2 7 6 8
ROME 3 2 8 7 9
ROME 3 2 9 8 11
ROME 3 2 10 9 12
ROME 3 2 11 10 13
ROME 3 2 12 11 14
ROME 3 2 13 12 15
ROME 3 2 14 13 16
ROME 3 2 15 14 17
ROME 3 2 16 15 18
ROME 3 2 17 16 19
ROME 3 2 18 17 20
ROME 3 2 19 18 -1
ROME 3 2 20 19 -1
ROME 4 2 5 5 6
ROME 4 2 6 5 7
ROME 4 2 7 5 8
ROME 4 2 8 6 9
ROME 4 2 9 7 10
ROME 4 2 10 8 11
ROME 4 2 11 9 12
ROME 4 2 12 10 13
ROME 4 2 13 11 14
ROME 4 2 14 12 15
ROME 4 2 15 13 16
ROME 4 2 16 14 17
ROME 4 2 17 15 18
ROME 4 2 18 16 19
ROME 4 2 19 17 20
ROME 4 2 20 18 -1
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
CARTH 1 2 5 9 13
CARTH 1 2 6 10 14
CARTH 1 2 7 11 15
CARTH 1 2 8 12 17
CARTH 1 2 9 13 17
CARTH 1 2 10 14 18
CARTH 1 2 11 14 20
CARTH 1 2 12 15 -1
CARTH 1 2 13 16 -1
CARTH 1 2 14 18 -1
CARTH 1 2 15 18 -1
CARTH 1 2 16 19 -1
CARTH 1 2 17 20 -1
CARTH 1 2 18 -1 -1
CARTH 1 2 19 -1 -1
CARTH 1 2 20 -1 -1
CARTH 2 2 5 7 12
CARTH 2 2 6 8 13
CARTH 2 2 7 9 14
CARTH 2 2 8 10 14
CARTH 2 2 9 11 16
CARTH 2 2 10 12 17
CARTH 2 2 11 13 17
CARTH 2 2 12 14 19
CARTH 2 2 13 15 20
CARTH 2 2 14 16 -1
CARTH 2 2 15 17 -1
CARTH 2 2 16 18 -1
CARTH 2 2 17 18 -1
CARTH 2 2 18 19 -1
CARTH 2 2 19 20 -1
CARTH 2 2 20 -1 -1
CARTH 3 2 5 6 11
CARTH 3 2 6 7 11
CARTH 3 2 7 8 12
CARTH 3 2 8 9 13
CARTH 3 2 9 10 14
CARTH 3 2 10 11 15
CARTH 3 2 11 12 16
CARTH 3 2 12 13 17
CARTH 3 2 13 14 18
CARTH 3 2 14 14 19
CARTH 3 2 15 15 20
CARTH 3 2 16 16 -1
CARTH 3 2 17 17 -1
CARTH 3 2 18 18 -1
CARTH 3 2 19 19 -1
CARTH 3 2 20 20 -1
CARTH 4 2 5 6 9
CARTH 4 2 6 7 10
CARTH 4 2 7 7 11
CARTH 4 2 8 8 12
CARTH 4 2 9 9 13
CARTH 4 2 10 10 13
CARTH 4 2 11 11 14
CARTH 4 2 12 12 15
CARTH 4 2 13 13 16
CARTH 4 2 14 14 17
CARTH 4 2 15 14 18
CARTH 4 2 16 16 19
CARTH 4 2 17 16 20
CARTH 4 2 18 17 -1
CARTH 4 2 19 18 -1
CARTH 4 2 20 19 -1
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
ROME 1 1 5 5 6
ROME 1 1 6 5 7
ROME 1 1 7 5 8
ROME 1 1 8 6 9
ROME 1 1 9 7 11
ROME 1 1 10 8 12
ROME 1 1 11 9 13
ROME 1 1 12 11 14
ROME 1 1 13 12 15
ROME 1 1 14 13 17
ROME 1 1 15 14 18
ROME 1 1 16 15 19
ROME 1 1 17 16 20
ROME 1 1 18 17 -1
ROME 1 1 19 18 -1
ROME 1 1 20 19 -1
ROME 2 1 5 5 5
ROME 2 1 6 5 7
ROME 2 1 7 5 8
ROME 2 1 8 6 9
ROME 2 1 9 7 10
ROME 2 1 10 8 11
ROME 2 1 11 9 12
ROME 2 1 12 10 13
ROME 2 1 13 11 14
ROME 2 1 14 12 15
ROME 2 1 15 13 16
ROME 2 1 16 14 17
ROME 2 1 17 15 18
ROME 2 1 18 16 19
ROME 2 1 19 17 20
ROME 2 1 20 18 -1
ROME 3 1 5 5 5
ROME 3 1 6 5 6
ROME 3 1 7 5 7
ROME 3 1 8 5 8
ROME 3 1 9 6 9
ROME 3 1 10 7 10
ROME 3 1 11 8 11
ROME 3 1 12 9 12
ROME 3 1 13 10 14
ROME 3 1 14 11 15
ROME 3 1 15 12 16
ROME 3 1 16 13 17
ROME 3 1 17 14 18
ROME 3 1 18 15 19
ROME 3 1 19 16 20
ROME 3 1 20 17 -1
ROME 4 1 5 5 5
ROME 4 1 6 5 6
ROME 4 1 7 5 7
ROME 4 1 8 5 8
ROME 4 1 9 6 9
ROME 4 1 10 7 10
ROME 4 1 11 8 11
ROME 4 1 12 9 12
ROME 4 1 13 10 13
ROME 4 1 14 11 14
ROME 4 1 15 12 15
ROME 4 1 16 13 16
ROME 4 1 17 13 17
ROME 4 1 18 15 18
ROME 4 1 19 15 19
ROME 4 1 20 16 20
Att rgen cgen ccds rcds50 rcds80
CARTH 1 1 5 8 13
CARTH 1 1 6 9 14
CARTH 1 1 7 10 15
CARTH 1 1 8 11 16
CARTH 1 1 9 12 17
CARTH 1 1 10 13 18
CARTH 1 1 11 14 19
CARTH 1 1 12 14 20
CARTH 1 1 13 15 -1
CARTH 1 1 14 16 -1
CARTH 1 1 15 17 -1
CARTH 1 1 16 18 -1
CARTH 1 1 17 19 -1
CARTH 1 1 18 20 -1
CARTH 1 1 19 -1 -1
CARTH 1 1 20 -1 -1
CARTH 2 1 5 7 11
CARTH 2 1 6 8 12
CARTH 2 1 7 8 13
CARTH 2 1 8 9 14
CARTH 2 1 9 10 15
CARTH 2 1 10 11 16
CARTH 2 1 11 12 16
CARTH 2 1 12 13 17
CARTH 2 1 13 14 18
CARTH 2 1 14 14 19
CARTH 2 1 15 15 20
CARTH 2 1 16 16 -1
CARTH 2 1 17 17 -1
CARTH 2 1 18 18 -1
CARTH 2 1 19 19 -1
CARTH 2 1 20 20 -1
CARTH 3 1 5 6 10
CARTH 3 1 6 7 11
CARTH 3 1 7 7 11
CARTH 3 1 8 8 12
CARTH 3 1 9 9 13
CARTH 3 1 10 10 14
CARTH 3 1 11 11 14
CARTH 3 1 12 12 15
CARTH 3 1 13 13 16
CARTH 3 1 14 13 17
CARTH 3 1 15 14 18
CARTH 3 1 16 15 19
CARTH 3 1 17 16 19
CARTH 3 1 18 17 20
CARTH 3 1 19 18 -1
CARTH 3 1 20 19 -1
CARTH 4 1 5 5 9
CARTH 4 1 6 6 9
CARTH 4 1 7 7 10
CARTH 4 1 8 8 11
CARTH 4 1 9 8 11
CARTH 4 1 10 9 12
CARTH 4 1 11 10 13
CARTH 4 1 12 11 14
CARTH 4 1 13 12 14
CARTH 4 1 14 12 15
CARTH 4 1 15 13 16
CARTH 4 1 16 14 17
CARTH 4 1 17 15 18
CARTH 4 1 18 16 19
CARTH 4 1 19 17 20
CARTH 4 1 20 18 -1