Land and site Purchased equipment at site

Distribution Discreete Distribution Discreete

Cum Prob Prob Cost Cum Prob Prob Cost
0 0.5 10 0 0.4 300
0.5 0.5 30 0.4 0.3 320
0.7 0.3 370

Raw materials Installation

Distribution Normal Distribution Normal
Mean 21 Mean 87
Optimistic 16 Optimistic 75
Pessimistic 25 Pessimistic 100
Std Dev 1.5 Std Dev 4.17

Main Production plant building Auxilliary Equipment

Distribution Normal Distribution Normal
Mean 78 Mean 68
Optimistic 70 Optimistic 56
Pessimistic 100 Pessimistic 80
Std Dev 5 Std Dev 4

Finished Products warehouse Ancillary Buildings

Distribution Normal Distribution Normal
Mean 45 Mean 28
Optimistic 40 Optimistic 20
Pessimistic 50 Pessimistic 36
Std Dev 1.67 Std Dev 2.67

Officer and QC lab

Distribution Normal
Mean 16
Optimistic 15
Pessimistic 25
Std Dev 1.67
 Technical knowhow
Distribution Costant
Cost 35

Detailed Engg
Procurment
Distribution Discreete
Cum Prob Prob Cost
0 0.25 30
0.25 0.5 55
0.75 0.25 95

Miscellanous Fixed Assets

Distribution Normal
Mean 42
Optimistic 35
Pessimistic 50
Std Dev 2.5

Preoperative expenses
Distribution Normal
Mean 22
Optimistic 10
Pessimistic 40
Std Dev 5.00
Iteration No. Land and Site Dev Raw Mat Warehouse Production Building
1 30 23.5 76.5
2 10 22.4 82
3 10 21 79.4
4 30 19.2 72.4
5 10 20.7 66.3
6 30 22 77.2
7 30 18.2 76.5
8 30 22.7 77
9 10 22.5 84.5
10 30 20.5 71.8
11 10 19.6 80.9
12 30 21.6 84.6
13 30 20.6 80.1
14 10 19 77.6
15 10 23.1 82.2
16 10 22.1 83.3
17 30 23.1 73.8
18 10 23.1 82
19 30 21.3 85.3
20 10 24.5 77.1
21 10 20.3 86.9
22 10 21.7 69
23 10 21.5 76.5
24 30 20.2 76.2
25 10 19.1 73.2
26 30 20.3 82.7
27 10 20.9 81.7
28 30 21.1 71.8
29 30 22.2 73.6
30 30 21.6 80.8
31 10 24 74.6
32 10 20.9 71.5
33 10 22.9 73.4
34 10 22.2 84.3
35 30 22.2 81.1
36 10 20.5 85.4
37 10 19.7 75
38 10 21.8 79
39 30 23 82.4
40 30 24.3 75.2
Finished Prod Building Ancilliary Building Office and QC building Sub total buildings
49.3 71.6 15.8 236.7
44.7 74.2 20.8 244.1
45.9 66.3 18.4 231
42.3 70.5 18 222.4
40.5 78 17.3 222.8
43.7 71.7 17.8 232.4
47 71.6 14.3 227.6
43.9 68 14.5 226.1
41.2 75 16.2 239.4
46.8 73.5 14.8 227.4
46.3 62.3 17.9 227
47.9 71.8 14.9 240.8
43.7 66.4 16 226.8
44.3 65.9 17.1 223.9
46.5 64.8 17 233.6
45.3 66.2 14.8 231.7
42.2 59.6 16.6 215.3
48.4 67.7 13.6 234.8
44.3 62.5 17.1 230.5
41.5 62.9 16.9 222.9
43.4 63.1 16 229.7
43.8 70 15.1 219.6
47.3 63.1 14 222.4
48.4 73.5 16.4 234.7
44.8 75.4 17.3 229.8
44.8 73.6 13.7 235.1
42.2 61.4 14.2 220.4
45.1 65.5 16.4 219.9
44.2 60.3 15.9 216.2
43.6 67.8 18.7 232.5
45.4 68.1 13.7 225.8
45.6 69.7 15.5 223.2
46.4 70.3 15.3 228.3
45.5 73 15.8 240.8
45.9 64.6 16.3 230.1
44.3 64.6 16.9 231.7
44.6 69.4 13.7 222.4
45 69.3 15 230.1
47 63.2 17 232.6
43.7 68.8 18.4 230.4
Purchased Equip at site Installatio Aux Equip Sub total plants Technical
300 93.8 66.5 460.3 35
300 81.6 71.2 452.8 35
320 89.2 71.9 481.1 35
370 88.8 72.3 531.1 35
370 88.4 67.4 525.8 35
320 88.5 68.8 477.3 35
320 84.7 69.3 474 35
300 91.1 71.7 462.8 35
300 87.2 68.9 456.1 35
370 81.6 65 516.6 35
300 88.1 65.2 453.3 35
370 89.9 69.5 529.4 35
300 84.4 70.5 454.9 35
300 83.9 68.8 452.7 35
300 85.8 67.2 453 35
300 83.4 70 453.4 35
320 88.7 62.8 471.5 35
300 82.2 65.3 447.5 35
320 88.4 63.6 472 35
320 91.4 62.8 474.2 35
370 87.3 74.1 531.4 35
370 87.5 70.3 527.8 35
300 87.1 66.2 453.3 35
300 88.2 75.8 464 35
320 81.7 67.8 469.5 35
320 86.8 70 476.8 35
300 88.9 64.5 453.4 35
320 90.2 71.5 481.7 35
370 85.9 67.8 523.7 35
300 84.7 71.8 456.5 35
370 87 69.4 526.4 35
320 80.1 65.1 465.2 35
320 90.9 74.4 485.3 35
370 89.3 66.7 526 35
370 86.9 71.3 528.2 35
320 86.6 64.2 470.8 35
320 92.8 77.7 490.5 35
300 89.5 74.8 464.3 35
370 87.8 66.7 524.5 35
320 89.6 63.7 473.3 35
Det engg & Constn Supervsn Misc FA Pre-op Exp Total new FA Contigency Contigency provision
55 42.5 28.2 887.7 47.7 5.7
95 45.9 23.7 906.5 66.5 7.9
30 42.8 20.6 850.5 10.5 1.3
30 42.4 27.9 918.8 78.8 9.4
55 38.5 26 913.1 73.1 8.7
30 43.6 27.3 875.6 35.6 4.2
55 41 24.2 886.8 46.8 5.6
55 41.4 28.3 878.6 38.6 4.6
55 40.9 22.8 859.2 19.2 2.3
30 44 27.9 910.9 70.9 8.4
55 41.3 24.1 845.7 5.7 0.7
55 42.1 15.5 947.8 107.8 12.8
55 46 12.1 859.8 19.8 2.4
55 40.5 19.9 837 0 0
95 40.6 31.4 898.6 58.6 7
55 42.8 19.8 847.7 7.7 0.9
55 43.5 16.7 867 27 3.2
55 39.9 17.3 839.5 0 0
55 44.4 28.1 895 55 6.5
30 39.1 26.9 838.1 0 0
95 40.8 27.6 969.5 129.5 15.4
95 39.4 14.4 941.2 101.2 12
55 40.6 20.4 836.7 0 0
55 40.9 24.3 883.9 43.9 5.2
95 47.6 17.7 904.6 64.6 7.7
95 44.3 21.9 938.1 98.1 11.7
55 42.6 23.1 839.5 0 0
30 47.6 28 872.2 32.2 3.8
30 44.9 19.6 899.4 59.4 7.1
30 41 14.7 839.7 0 0
95 37.9 16.4 946.5 106.5 12.7
55 42.6 13.1 844.1 4.1 0.5
55 41.3 20.3 875.2 35.2 4.2
55 40.8 18.5 926.1 86.1 10.3
95 47.4 12.7 978.4 138.4 16.5
30 42.6 31.5 851.6 11.6 1.4
95 44.9 24.1 921.9 81.9 9.8
55 41.2 29.1 864.7 24.7 2.9
95 37.2 19 973.3 133.3 15.9
95 39.5 9.9 913.1 73.1 8.7
Max Cost 992.4
Min Cost 831.8 Cost FrequencyCum Freq
Average 884.2575 750 0 0
Avg Conti 5.3175 760 0 0
Average % 44.655 770 0 0
Std Dev 36.89309 780 0 0
Standard e 5.83331 790 0 0
800 0 0
810 0 0
820 0 0
830 0 0
840 3 3
850 4 7
860 4 11
870 4 15
880 7 22
890 2 24
900 3 27
910 4 31
920 4 35
930 1 36
940 2 38
950 0 38
960 0 38
970 0 38
980 1 39
990 0 39
1000 1 40
8 45

7 40

6 35
30
5
25
4
20 1
3 2
15
2 10
1 5
0 0
Iteration NLand and Site Dev Raw Mat WProductionFinished PAncilliary Office andSub total buildings
1 30 21.2 79.7 44.1 67.1 15.3 227.4
2 30 22.3 85.2 44.7 67.6 15.8 235.6
3 30 16.7 83.7 45.1 67.9 15.5 228.9
4 30 19.5 74.3 45.1 69.7 17.1 225.7
5 10 19.5 70.3 48.5 67.4 20.1 225.8
6 30 21.9 79.5 44.1 68.5 14.7 228.7
7 10 20.8 82.9 46.2 61.2 15.8 226.9
8 10 24.5 79.5 45.2 66.2 18.2 233.6
9 30 20.3 85.7 42.4 66.1 15.8 230.3
10 30 20.3 78.2 46.3 71.1 16 231.9
11 30 22.1 83.3 45.4 68.1 20.8 239.7
12 10 21.6 79 44.1 68.4 15.5 228.6
13 10 24.1 78.6 44.3 66.7 16.9 230.6
14 30 19 83.9 45 68.9 14.3 231.1
15 30 23 77 44.5 68.8 14.1 227.4
16 10 22.1 83.7 45.2 63 16.6 230.6
17 10 19.5 85.2 44.1 67.5 14.6 230.9
18 30 19.5 82.1 46.2 69.3 15.7 232.8
19 30 21.1 72.1 45.2 71.4 13.1 222.9
20 10 21.1 78.3 45.3 64.7 15.2 224.6
21 30 19.1 77 43.3 65.3 15.1 219.8
22 30 19.6 76.5 43.4 73 14.6 227.1
23 30 19.3 74.3 45.2 67 16.6 222.4
24 10 21 73.9 44.6 70.7 16 226.2
25 30 21.2 79.7 47.5 63.4 16.8 228.6
26 10 18.5 69.7 48.1 69.5 18.3 224.1
27 10 20.8 81.1 43.7 63.3 18.2 227.1
28 30 22.9 82.3 47.9 67.6 16.3 237
29 10 19 72.3 43.2 66.8 12.4 213.7
30 10 18.5 81.6 46.5 70.9 15.8 233.3
31 10 20.5 72.7 47.7 63.2 18.1 222.2
32 30 21.7 73.7 45.4 65.9 14.3 221
33 10 21.1 69.5 46.5 69.3 13.2 219.6
34 10 18.9 76.7 46.3 60.9 16.3 219.1
35 30 20.9 80.8 42.3 68 16.4 228.4
36 10 22.3 74.3 41.2 62.6 19.8 220.2
37 30 23.1 79.9 44.5 75.2 16.6 239.3
38 10 19.6 84.6 43.7 68.3 14.2 230.4
39 30 21 70.9 45.2 68.8 17.1 223
40 30 20.6 84.5 43 62.1 15.1 225.3
PurchasedInstallatio Aux Equip Sub total plants Technical Det engg &Misc FA Pre-op ExpTotal new
370 83.5 76.1 529.6 35 95 43 15 975
300 84.7 65.1 449.8 35 55 46.6 21.9 873.9
320 94.7 65.4 480.1 35 55 43.9 19.4 892.3
370 87.2 73.5 530.7 35 55 45 18.3 939.7
300 84.8 66.8 451.6 35 55 42.1 23.5 843
370 84 69.8 523.8 35 30 39 22.5 909
320 91.3 67 478.3 35 30 41 23.8 845
370 85 66.3 521.3 35 30 40.3 26.8 897
300 88.7 65.3 454 35 55 38.6 17.3 860.2
300 85.4 65.4 450.8 35 55 44.4 16.7 863.8
370 90.1 65.2 525.3 35 95 41.7 25.7 992.4
320 88.3 71 479.3 35 95 40.6 15.9 904.4
320 91.5 68.5 480 35 95 40.6 23.6 914.8
300 90 68.6 458.6 35 30 40.5 24.9 850.1
320 82.4 66.4 468.8 35 30 40.8 20.2 852.2
370 82.7 69.5 522.2 35 55 45.3 26.7 924.8
300 92.4 70.7 463.1 35 55 43 21.5 858.5
300 81.6 67.7 449.3 35 55 40.8 23.5 866.4
320 83.5 67.4 470.9 35 95 46.6 17.6 918
320 82.2 65.7 467.9 35 55 45.6 23 861.1
300 88.2 69.8 458 35 55 51.1 28.1 877
370 91.6 67.6 529.2 35 30 40.7 22.9 914.9
300 80.5 69.2 449.7 35 55 44.4 19.7 856.2
300 86 65.6 451.6 35 55 40.2 18 836
300 82 71.5 453.5 35 95 38.1 24.5 904.7
370 85.9 70.1 526 35 30 40.7 20.6 886.4
320 89.7 67.5 477.2 35 30 44.6 23.5 847.4
320 83.1 67.4 470.5 35 95 39 28.3 934.8
370 86 65.2 521.2 35 30 46.5 22.1 878.5
300 89.9 74.3 464.2 35 30 42.1 28.5 843.1
370 84 67.2 521.2 35 55 39.5 28.2 911.1
300 87.1 66.1 453.2 35 30 44.4 22.7 836.3
370 88 65.1 523.1 35 30 41.7 31 890.4
300 85 59.8 444.8 35 55 43.2 24.7 831.8
320 81.4 67.4 468.8 35 55 39.6 23.3 880.1
370 85.3 65 520.3 35 55 40.3 26.6 907.4
320 85.3 66.9 472.2 35 30 41.9 22.8 871.2
320 86.1 68.3 474.4 35 55 44.1 23.5 872.4
320 78.9 64.4 463.3 35 55 42.7 22 871
320 88.5 61.9 470.4 35 55 43.4 18.9 878
ContigencyContigency provision
135 16.1
33.9 4
52.3 6.2
99.7 11.9
3 0.4
69 8.2
5 0.6
57 6.8
20.2 2.4
23.8 2.8
152.4 18.1
64.4 7.7
74.8 8.9
10.1 1.2
12.2 1.5
84.8 10.1
18.5 2.2
26.4 3.1
78 9.3
21.1 2.5
37 4.4
74.9 8.9
16.2 1.9
0 0
64.7 7.7
46.4 5.5
7.4 0.9
94.8 11.3
38.5 4.6
3.1 0.4
71.1 8.5
0 0
50.4 6
0 0
40.1 4.8
67.4 8
31.2 3.7
32.4 3.9
31 3.7
38 4.5