Air Travel Demand and

Airport Capacity
Lecture 28
Why needed??

To anticipate the travel requirements which assist in decisions

regarding the type and size of the facilities to be located at an
airport
Infrastructure like terminals, runways, taxiways, aprons, traffic
control, etc.
To aid airlines to make long-tern plans for both including
equipment and personnel
To assist local authorities in implementing transport
infrastructure to and from the airport
To provide input to the government which translates in
decisions regarding local, regional and national development
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Air Transport Growth

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Passenger Growth

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Conventional Methods of Forecasting

Judgment
Subject to limited growth; information available on factors
involved
Not preferred under complex situations and for long-term
forecasts
Survey of Expectations
Directed to air transport experts in aviation industry
Selection through broader framework
Uses Delhi analysis ??
More suitable to aggregate forecasts at the regional 31-07-2017
or national 5

level than to disaggregate estimate at airport level

Conventional Methods of Forecasting

Trend Forecasting
Use of past growth data; extrapolates for future
More suited to short-term forecasting

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Conventional Methods of Forecasting

Base Forecast Method

Assumes that a citys percentage of the annual national passenger
volume remains relatively constant over time
Limitations Percentage of national figures does not necessarily
remain constant; National forecasts have been historically
remained incorrect
More used in US

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Conventional Methods of Forecasting

Base Forecast Method

Method A:
Determine the percentage of national enplaned passengers that the
airport has attracted in the past
Adjust this percentage to reflect anticipated abnormal growth trends
Obtain data for national passenger volumes for the design year
Calculate step-down design figure = Product of above two

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Conventional Methods of Forecasting

Base Forecast Method

Method B:
Obtain number of passengers per 1000 population that the airport has
experienced in the past
Compare it with national figures
Compute ratio of 1 to 2
Obtain national forecast of air passenger volumes per 1000 population
for the design year
Calculate local passenger volume per 1000 population as Product of
above two

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Conventional Methods of Forecasting

Base Forecast Method

Alternatively Step-down procedure
Esti = Mi/r * Mr/s* Ms/n * En
M = Market share; i = airport; r = region; s = state; n nation;
E = enplanement

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Analytical Methods

Primary variables
City characteristics and demographics
Supply (number of passengers)
Motivation to travel
Expenditure Capacity v/s fare levels
Availability of travel time
Transport infrastructure
Proximity to other cities offering air travel
Government support (Uddan??)
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Urban and regional development character
Analytical Methods

Procedure Followed
Past trends data
Identification of exogenous variables
Socioeconomic data from area and area characteristics
Establishment of relationship between predicted variables and air
travel demand
Prediction of anticipated level of exogenous variables in design
year
Prediction of air travel demand based on predicted level of
exogenous variables and relationship already developed
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Analytical Methods

Procedural Steps of Demand Modelling

Generation Distribution Modal Choice
Assignment

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Air Trip Generation Models

Market Analysis
Assumption areas share of total air transport market remains
constant over time
National demand totals are to be estimated for the design year.
This can be done by:
Trend Analysis
Cross-classification or Category analysis

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Air Trip Generation Models

Cross-Classification Analysis
Assumption individuals with different social, economic and
demographic characteristics demonstrate different and
predictable air travel behaviour, which remains constant over time
Survey needs to be conducted
Demographic variables family structure, income, age, education,
employment type, etc.
Trip rates are estimated within each category
These are applied to forecasted population in that category
Total projected travel demand is the aggregation of such
categorised travel demands 31-07-2017 15
Air Trip Generation Models

Cross-Classification Analysis

Car Household Income (000 Rs, Annually)

ownership < 250 250 - <500 500 - < 1000 - >=1500
1000 <1500
1 a b c d e
2 l m n o P
3 u v w x y
3+ . . . . .

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Air Trip Generation Models

Regression Analysis
Assumptions
All the variables are independent of each other.
All the variables are normally distributed.
All the variables are continuous.
A linear relationship exists between the dependent variable and the
independent variables.
Influence of independent variable is additive that is the inclusion of
each variable in the equation contributes a distinct portion of the trip
numbers.

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Air Trip Generation Models

Regression Analysis
Model form Yp = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 ,..+ bn Xn

Coefficient of Determination = D

D = r2 = (TSS ESS) / TSS

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Air Trip Generation Models

Regression Analysis
Model form Yp = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 ,..+ bn Xn

Standard Deviation : (n observations)

Standard Error of estimation
X
X n(X) S xx .S yy ( S xy ) 2
i Sy
X S xx 2 2
n Slope By r. Se
Sx S xy .(n m 1)

Y
Y i S yy Y n(Y )
2 2
S xy Standard error of regression corfficient
r
XY n(X.Y )
n
S xy ( S xx .S yy ) Se 2

Sx
(X i X) 2 Sb
S xx
(n 1 ) S xy D r2
b Student t - test :

S xx b
(Yi Y ) 2 t b 19
Sy a Y bX
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Sb
(n 1 )
Regression Model (Rengaraju and Arasan, JTE,
ASCE, 118(3),1992:371-380)

Variables
P population; E Employees; Q University degree holders;
R Rail/Air Travel Time Ratio; D Distance between two cities;
F Frequency of service as number of available flights, both ways per
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week
Regression Analysis

Example:
City Pair Travel Population City Pair Travel Population
Demand million Demand million
1 2225 10 7 1792 11
2 3260 19 8 746 4
3 1709 5 9 576 1
4 620 2 10 609 5
5 521 2 11 1932 12
6 2985 17 12 2465 15
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Regression Analysis

Example:
R2 = 0.914;
Std Err for intercept = 415.99; SE for X = 14.71
Intercept a = 317.75; t-statistics = 2.063; P-value = 0.066
Coefficient of X b = 151.72; t-statistics = 10.314; P-value
= 0.0000
F = 106.38, Significance F = 0.00000

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Load Factor and Aircraft Mix

Correlates with air transport demand

Load Factor
Ratio of passenger miles carried to seat miles operated
Computed for peak and off-peak periods
High load factor may indicate that some traffic is being turned
away at peak times This is economically unacceptable
Positioning and scheduling of aircrafts may constraint the load
factor to less than 80%

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Load Factor and Aircraft Mix

Correlates with air transport demand

Aircraft Mix
Affects operations at ground level - Number of aircrafts by type to
be used to handle anticipated travel demand
Also affects the facility to be used

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Peak Hour Travel Demand

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Peak Hour Travel Demand

Example of Port Authority of New York

Peak Hour flow is converted into Peak aircraft flow using

estimate of average passenger load per aircraft (based on
projected load factor and projected seating per aircraft)
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Peak Hour Travel Demand

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Airport Capacity

Runway capacity
Terminal Capacity
Storage Capacity
Parking side Capacity

Capacity depends upon number of prevailing conditions

like ceiling and visibility, air traffic control, aircraft mix,
and type of operations.
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Airport Capacity

Runway capacity is talked as number of operations

(arrivals and departures) per unit of time (oper/hr)
Practical Capacity considers reasonable or tolerable
delays, say average 4 min delay to departing aircraft
during normal two peak adjacent hours of the week
Ultimate or Saturation Capacity maximum number of
aircrafts that can be handled during a given period under
conditions of continuous demand
When demand approaches capacity delays to aircraft
increases sharply
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Airport Capacity

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Runway Capacity

Factors Affecting
Air Traffic control related
Demand characteristics
Environmental conditions
Layout and design of runway system

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Runway Capacity

Air Traffic control related

Minimum allowable horizontal separation on approach to airport is
2 to 5 nautical mile (3.8 to 9.5 km) between aircrafts
Minimum separation between departure and arrival on a runway
strip is 2 nautical mile
Runway occupancy time Time for which aircraft remains on the
runway strip before exiting to taxiway
Controlled by landing point speed and exiting speed from runway, as
well as the location of exit taxiway

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Runway Capacity

Air Traffic control related

Length of common path from ILS gate to the threshold, normally 4
to 8 mile (6.5 to 13 km)
Sequencing strategy for controlling aircrafts
First come first serve; Speed-class sequencing, etc
Sophistication of the air traffic control system installed at an
airport for monitoring aircraft speed, its position, movements,
etc.
Arrival to departure ratio
Arrivals give priority over departures

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Runway Capacity

Air Traffic control related

Example Aircraft landing speed 265 kmph; Minimum separation 3
nau mi
Physical separation = 3 x 1.9 x 1000 = 5700 m
Time separation = 5700 / (265 x 1000/ 3600) = 77.43 sec
Maximum rate of arrivals =3600 / 77.43 = 46 arrivals/hr

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Runway Capacity

Runway occupancy
time = 25 sec

Arrivals every 75 sec

50 sec available
between arrivals for
departure

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Characteristics of Demand

Aircraft size
Braking capability, maneuverability and speed (approach
and touchdown) influences the runway occupancy time
Percentage of different types of aircraft operations
Exclusive arrival and departure runway strips or mixed use
runway strips

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Environmental Factors

Visibility affects separation of aircrafts; Need of

Instrument Flight Rules
Runway surface condition Influence runway occupancy
time
Wind Velocity and duration, cross-winds and tail winds
Noise abatement requirements Restricts the hours of
operation

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Layout Design Factors

Runways numbers, spacing, length and orientation

Taxiways Exit taxiways, location, number and design
Design of ramp entrances

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Methods of Capacity Estimation

Empirical
Queuing
Analytical
Computer Simulation

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Analytical Approach

Based on
Length of common approach path
Aircraft speed
Minimum aircraft separation
Two situations may arise
The trailing aircraft approaches at a speed equal to or greater
than the lead aircraft The overtaking case
The speed of lead aircraft exceeds that of the trailing aircraft
The Opening case
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Analytical Approach

Error Free Estimate Means

Pilots maintain required speed and separation precisely
Controller deliver aircraft to the entry gate exactly as scheduled
Time separation estimate

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Analytical Approach

Error Free Estimate Means

= speed of aircraft (1 for leading and 2 for following)
= minimum safety separation
= length of common approach path

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Analytical Approach

Both aircrafts
are of same
type

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Analytical Approach

Following
aircraft is
bigger than
leading aircraft

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Analytical Approach

Following
aircraft is
smaller than
leading aircraft

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Analytical Approach

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Analytical Approach

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Analytical Approach

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Analytical Approach

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Analytical Approach

For case when aircrafts are grouped into n discrete

speed classes
Matrix of minimum separation intervals for speed classes
is formed

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Analytical Approach

Probability of occurrence of each speed class is noted

such that P = 100
Expected minimum landing interval or weighted mean
service time
= ( )

Hourly saturation Capacity

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Analytical Approach

Example
Length of common approach path = 6 nautical mi
Minimum separation = 3 nautical mi
Single runway strip
Population of landing aircrafts:% Aircraft Approach speed (knots)
20 100
20 120
60 135
Calculate ultimate capacity assuming error free approaches
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Example

As no information is available regarding arrival schedule

of different types of aircrafts there is a possibility that
aircraft of any class may follow aircraft of other class.
Therefore, aircraft with speed 100 may follow or lead an
aircraft with speed 120 and 135, and so on.
It means a matrix has to be created for all such
combinations while estimating the minimum separation
time between two arrivals of any combination pair.

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Example

If aircraft with speed 100 leads an aircraft with speed

120, then the minimum separation time would be:

Since > , ( , ) = = 3 / 120 = 90 sec

If = 100 = 135, then

3 1 1
( , ) = 100 +6
100 135
= 0.0456 = 164

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Example

Matrix mi,j
Speed of leading aircraft Probability
vi Pj
100 120 134
Speed of 100 108 144 164 0.2
trailing 120 90 90 110 0.2
aircraft, vj
135 80 80 80 0.6
Probability 0.2 0.2 0.6
Pi
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Example

Weighted average separation

= {0.2(108 x 0.2 + 90 x 0.2 + 80 x 0.6) + 0.2(144 x 0.2 +
90 x 0.2 + 80 x 0.6) + 0.6(164 x 0.2 + 110 x 0.2 + 80 x 0.6)}
= 98.16 sec
Ultimate capacity c = 1 / = 1 / 98.16 = 0.0102 arrivals
per sec
c = 36.7 arrivals per hour

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Annual Service Volume

This define the level of annual aircraft operations that

will result in an average aircraft delay on the order of 1 to
4 min.
As annual aircraft operations approach annual service
volume the average aircraft delay throughout the year
tends to increase rapidly causing deterioration in the level
of service

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Annual Service Volume

Procedure
Identify operating condition VFR dual runway, IFR single
runway
Determine percentage of time the condition occurs
Determine hourly capacity of the runway for the operating
condition(s)
Identify the hourly capacity for the operating condition that
occurs the greatest percentage of the year
Determine the weight to be applied to this predominant
capacity
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Annual Service Volume

Weights

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Annual Service Volume

Weighted Hourly Capacity Cw

Pi = proportion of the year with capacity Ci

Wi = weight to be applied to the capacity
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Annual Service Volume

Determine the ratio of annual aircraft operations to

average daily aircraft operations during the peak month
Daily Ratio (D)

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Annual Service Volume

Determine the ratio of average daily aircraft operations to

average peak aircraft operations during the peak month
Hourly Ratio (H)

Annual Service Volume ASV = Cw x D x H

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Annual Service Volume

Example Dual parallel runway system

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Annual Service Volume

Example Dual parallel runway system

Historical data available
Total annual operations = 367604
Average daily operations = 1050
Average peak hour operations, peak month = 75

Predominant capacity = 93 operations/hr

Predominant operation condition is 1 prevailing for 70%
of the time
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Annual Service Volume

Example
Using table of weights

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Annual Service Volume

Example
Weighted Hourly capacity
Cw = {(0.70 x 93 x 1) + (0.20 x 72 x 15) + (0.10 x 62 x 15)} /
{(0.70 x 1) + (0.20 x 15) + (0.10 x 15)}
Cw = 72 operations per hour
Daily Ratio = 367604 / 1050 = 350
Hourly Ratio = 1050 / 75 = 14
ASV = 72 x 350 x 14 = 352800 operations per year

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Gate Capacity

Defi. capability of gates available for loading and

unloading operations under conditions of continuous
demand
It can be estimated as inverse of the average gate
occupancy time for all types of aircrafts served

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Gate Capacity

Gate Occupancy Time depends upon

The type of aircraft
Whether the flight is an originating, turnaround or through
flight
Number of deplaning and enplaning passengers
Volume of baggage and mail
Efficiency of apron personnel
Whether the gate is open for all users or is allocated for an
exclusive use (by airline / type of aircraft)

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Gate Capacity

Example
Total gates at an airport = 10
All gates are available for all aircrafts
Aircraft mix:
Aircraft class Mix % Average occupancy time (min)
1 10 20
2 30 40
3 60 60
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Gate Capacity

Example 1
Gate capacity c = 1/(weighted service time)
c = 1/(0.10 x 20 + 0.30 x 40 + 0.60 x 60)
c = 0.02 aircrafts/min/gate
Total capacity GC = 10 x 0.02 x 60 = 12 aircrafts/hr

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Gate Capacity

Example 1
Total gates = 10 under exclusive use also
Aircraft class Gate Group No. of Gates Mix% MST (min)
1 A 1 10 20
2 B 2 30 40
3 C 7 60 60

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Gate Capacity

Example 1
If mix is not considered then Gate Group capacity would be:
Group-A: GCA = 60/20 = 3 aircraft/hr
Group-B: CGB = 2 x 60/40 = 3 aircraft/hr
Group-C: CGC = 7 x 60/60 = 7 aircraft/hr
This may indicate that the total capacity is 13 aircraft/hr

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Gate Capacity

Example 1
If mix is considered then Gate Group capacity would be:

Group-A: CGA = 2 x 60/(0.1 x 20) = 30 aircraft/hr

Group-B: CGB = 2 x 60/(0.3 x 40) = 10 aircraft/hr
Group-C: CGC = 7 x 60/(0.6 x 60) = 11.67 aircraft/hr
The capacity is therefore 10 aircraft/hr

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