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Feature Article

University of Essex
Edward P.K. Tsang and Serafin Martinez-Jaramillo
Computational Finance
Edward P.K. Tsang and Serafin Martinez-Jaramillo
Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents (CCFEA)
University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom

Abstract. Advances in hardware and software enable research in finance and economics that was not possible before. Some of
this research challenges the fundamentals of economics. Others attempt to gain an insight into financial markets, or to explore
business opportunities. This paper briefly outlines the scope and agenda of computational finance research.

1. Introduction Individuals, which researchers often can become more rational.


refer to as agents, are assumed to be
Advances in computing have changed rational. For example, from a purely eco- 2.2. The Efficient Market
the society. Its implications to finance nomic point of view, when one is given Hypothesis
and economics are immense. Never two prices to purchase exactly the same Rationality is one of the major
before have we had the amount of finan- commodity, one is expected to take the assumptions behind many economic
cial data available for analysis today. lower price. In a more complex situation, theories. Here we shall examine the effi-
Never before have we had the process- making rational decisions may involve cient market hypothesis (EMH), which is
ing power to analyze such data. more reasoning; for example solving an behind most economic analysis of finan-
Processing power also enables us to assignment problem in Operations cial markets. The proposal of the EMH
simulate complex models, which opens Research. This is within the capacity of can be traced back to Bacheliers theo-
new routes for studying finance and eco- an agent with the right training. However, retical contribution (Bachlier 1964) and
nomic systems. Advances in algorithms, some agents may be able to solve larger Cowles empirical work (Cowles 1933).
such as evolutionary computation, problems more quickly than others. To In conventional economics, markets are
enable us to analyze data more efficient- push computational limit even further, assumed efficient if all available informa-
ly than ever. Advances in computing give making rational decisions may involve tion is fully reflected in current market
rise to a whole new area of research in solving combinatorial optimization prob- prices (Fama 1965).
finance and economics, which is the sub- lems where no known NP algorithms are Depending on the information set
ject of this paper. From an academic available; e.g. solving the traveling available, there are different forms of the
point of view, some of this research chal- salesman problem with thousands of EMH. Here we focus on the Weak form
lenges fundamental concepts in eco- cities. Whether rational agents exist is of EMH (Malkiel 1992). It suggests that
nomics. Some researchers attempt to therefore questionable; the best that one the information set includes only the his-
gain better insight into the behavior of can do (in general cases) is to find tory of prices or returns themselves. If
financial markets. From a commercial approximations. Given a limited amount the weak form of EMH holds in a market,
point of view, effective exploitation of of time, some algorithms will be able to abnormal profits cannot be acquired
new computation methods will help insti- find better approximations than others. from analysis of historical stock prices or
tutes to make better decisions and Given the same algorithm, the faster a volume. In other words, analyzing charts
improve their competitive edge. computer is the more potential that it can of past price and/or trading volume
What exactly is studied in computa- find better solutions. Therefore, when movements, is a waste of time; i.e. tech-
tional finance? Like many young disci- serious computation is involved, how nical analysis is futile.
plines, computational finance means dif- 'rational' an agent is depends on what The weak form of EMH is associated
ferent things to different people. But for algorithms it uses, and what computing with the term Random Walk Hypothesis
the health of a discipline, it is useful to power it has access to. (Cootner 1964). Random walk hypothe-
have a working definition. Consensus on Computational complexity is not the sis suggests that investment returns are
the definition avoids unnecessary debate only reason why the rationality assump- serially independent. That means the
and helps focus on important research tion is challenged. Challenges also come next period's return is not a function of
issues. Boundaries of most young disci- from cognitive reasoning (Anderson previous returns. Prices only changes as
plines move over time (artificial intelli- 1991). How optimal human beings are is a result of new information, such as the
gence is a good example). This paper is being questioned. A more realistic notion company has new, significant personnel
not meant to be a full survey of the topic of rationality is bounded rationality changes, being made available
- a full survey demands more space. defined by Simon (Simon 1957), that A large number of empirical tests have
Rather it is an attempt to define the property of an agent that behaves in a been conducted to test the weak form of
scope and agenda of computational manner that is nearly as optimal with EMH, e.g. see Levy 1996. Recent work
finance research. Examples of research respect to its goals as its resources will illustrated many anomalies, which are
so far are used to outline the scope of allow. Here resources include process- events or patterns that may offer
this young field. ing power, algorithm and time available investors opportunities to earn abnormal
to the agent. Some of these resources return. Those anomalies could not be
2. Challenging the Fundamentals are not always easy to quantify. explained by the weak form of EMH. To
in Economics and Finance Therefore, any mathematical models explain the empirical anomalies, many
that assume rationality are subject to the believe that new theories for explaining
2.1. What is Rationality? definition of resources available. By market efficiency remain to be discov-
One of the most fundamental con- using faster computers and better algo- ered.
cepts in economics is rationality. rithms within a given time limit, an agent

8 IEEE Computational Intelligence Society August 2004


Feature Article (cont.)
3. Understanding Financial The Santa Fe ASM opened new ques- Another important line of research sur-
Markets tions, which lead to other important work. rounds the Minority Game (MG), which is
LeBaron et al 1999 analyzed the time a simplification of the problem first
Few researchers question that the series properties of the endogenously described in Arthur 1994. The Minority
market is efficient in the long run. The generated returns. It was observed that Game has been used extensively to
question of how market prices become the market replicated some of the empir- model Financial Markets, e.g. see
efficient is being raised. Traditional theo- ical features (the so called stylized Caldarelli et al 1997 and Challet et al
ry was based on rationality: investors are facts) of the real markets. LeBaron 2000. The aim behind the use of the MG
all efficient, and therefore, when a new 2001a further investigated other aspects in Financial markets is to have a simple
piece of information becomes available, of the market, the effects of the longitude enough mechanism that allows some
they all come to the same conclusion on of the traders' memory on the market. analytical treatment and yet captures
what the fair price should be to reflect the Farmer 2002 explored an artificial market important aspects of the agents individ-
new information. Others seriously ques- with trend following traders and value ual behavior. In such models the authors
tion whether investors are homogeneous investors using a price determination out represent different types of traders with
and fully informed. If they are not, how of equilibrium. In his approach he tried to differences in the memory length and
does the market efficiency emerge combine simplicity as well as realistic observe the results of their interactions
through the interaction of these assumptions about the market, price for- on the collective behavior.
investors? Some of the research that mation and trading strategies.
attempts to gain a better understanding Arifovic 1994 and 2001 explored the 3.2. Evolving Agents
of the market will be elaborated in this use of genetic algorithms in economic Agent-based research plays an impor-
section. models, in particular in foreign exchange tant role in understanding the market
markets. Although the genetic algorithms behavior. The design of the behavior of
3.1. Agent-based Artificial Markets had been used before in financial appli- the agents that participate in an agent-
One way to study properties of a mar- cations (e.g. see Bauer 1994), her based model is very important. The type
ket is to build artificial markets, whose approach was more complex, novel and of agents can vary from very simple
dynamics are solely determined by com- entered fully in the economics field. The agents to very sophisticated ones. The
puter programs that model various GA mechanism was used to evolve deci- mechanisms by which the agents learn
behaviors. Some of these programs may sion rules that were used to determine can be based on any of the artificial intel-
attempt to model nave behavior, others the composition of the agents portfolios ligence techniques like neural networks,
may attempt to exhibit intelligence. Since in a foreign exchange market. The genetic algorithms, learning classifier
the behavior of agents is completely returns and exchanges rates were gener- systems, genetic programming, etc. In
under the designers control, the experi- ated endogenously. Unlike the Santa Fe this section we will present some impor-
menters have means to control various Artificial Stock Market, Arifovics tant examples of different types of agents
experimental factors and relate market Exchange Rate Market had no exoge- and learning mechanisms.
behavior to observed phenomena. nous fundamental process influencing Evolutionary computation plays an
The enormous degrees of freedom the exchange rate. important part in the study of financial
that one faces when one designs an Two interesting phenomena to be ana- markets. In particular, co-evolution is
agent-based market make the process lyzed in the study of financial markets are used to model competing agents. In the
very complex. Some of the most impor- herd behavior and regime switching. Santa Fe artificial stock market model
tant lessons can be learned from Some different approaches have been (Arthur et al 1997), prices were deter-
LeBaron 2001b, Farmer et al 1999, developed and tested. In his seminal mined by agents, which were modeled
Tesfatsion 2001 and Jefferies et al 2002. work, Kirman 1993 created a model that using genetic algorithms, more specifi-
According to LeBaron 2001b, the main generates complex dynamics on the cally, by a Learning Classifier System
points to contemplate when designing basis of simple behavior inspired on ants. (LCS).
agent based markets are: the agents, the In further work, Kirman et al 2001 devel- Before the arrival of the Bounded
trading mechanism, the securities, the oped an agent-based model to analyze Rationality and Inductive Reasoning in
evolution; benchmark and calibration and the fish market in Marseille. the design of Artificial Agents, experi-
time. Each of these aspects has a non- To explain the features of the stock mental studies were conducted with
trivial number of design possibilities. market returns, Lux 1998 and Levy et al human beings. This well established field
The work by Arthur opened a new way 1996, 2000 borrowed techniques devel- in Economics, known as Experimental
of thinking about the use of artificial oped in statistical mechanics. This work Economics is a frequent source of inspi-
agents that behave like humans in finan- belongs to an emergent field known as ration for the more recent studies in
cial markets simulations (Arthur 1994). Econophysics. The large number of Computational Finance, in particular in
The idea of bounded rationality wasn't papers testifies to the increasing impor- the simulation of Financial Markets.
new in those years, but to apply it in eco- tance of this research area. Farmer 1999 Chan et al 2001 made an interesting
nomics and in particular in financial mar- introduced the field and described some comparison between the two approach-
kets was a turning point which gradually of the most important work. The main es.
lead to the very influential work of the rationale behind these models is that the Sunders (Gode et al 1993 and
Artificial Stock Market (ASM) from the many interacting particles in physical Sunders et al 2004) performed a series
Santa Fe Institute (Arthur et al 1997, systems obey universal laws (known as of experiments with humans and compu-
LeBaron et al 1999). The Santa Fe ASM scaling laws) independent of the micro- tational agents who take decisions in a
was composed by several artificial scopic details of such systems. Such random basis; they called them zero
agents who would decide to submit properties, the so called stylized facts intelligence (ZI) agents. In their experi-
orders to buy or sell one risky asset in (see Cont 2001), are shared across dif- ments, they obtained a remarkable
order to achieve their desired position of ferent markets (foreign exchange, stock allocative efficiency with these agents in
such asset and a risk-less asset, based markets), market indexes and stock a simulated double auction market. A key
on the market conditions. returns. finding of these experiments was the fact

August 2004 IEEE Computational Intelligence Society 9


Feature Article (cont.) that by simply applying a budget con- phenomena, they called this procedure equilibriums can be approximated by
straint to the zero intelligent agents, the Visiting the Business School. Driven by genetic programming (Jin et al 2004).
allocative efficiency in such market is differences in performance (as opposed This gives opportunity to find approxi-
almost equal to the efficiency in markets to being determined by experimental mate solutions to more complex situa-
with profit motivated humans. The results parameters), agents co-evolve. tions for which theoretical solutions have
of these experiments challenge the neo- Like Chen and Yeh, Markose et al yet to be found.
classical models regarding the utility 2003 used genetic programs to repre-
maximization behavior of the economic sent trading strategies. If the artificial 3.6. Research Opportunities and
agents. market resembles the real market, they Challenges Ahead
Due to the flexibility of the agent- expect wealth to follow the power law Researches described above are just
based paradigm, we do not have to distribution - that a very small number of some of the more representative exam-
assume the existence of fully rational agents posses a large percentage of the ples in computational finance. The vari-
optimizing agents with homogenous total wealth, with the remaining of the ety of financial applications, the different
beliefs. We have the possibility of model- population sharing the rest of the wealth. types of learning mechanisms used in
ing markets with heterogeneous agents Agents are programmed to retrain them- such applications and the different types
and with information asymmetry. The selves when their wealth fall below the of markets that one could simulate sug-
heterogeneity of beliefs is simulated in median wealth of the population. gest a rich field of research. However, all
the work of Schulenburg et al 2002 by Training is done using EDDIE, the genet- this flexibility and freedom comes at a
modeling classes of traders, rather than ic programming system for forecasting cost. One of the main criticisms to agent
individual agents. The adaptive agents' (Li 2001 and Tsang et al 1998, see based markets is the large number of
decision process was driven by a learn- Section 4). Markose et al's aim is to parameters and the tuning needed to get
ing classifier system. Although their establish the Red Queens condition, realistic price behavior. In some situa-
model could not be considered a full which require individuals to keep improv- tions, small changes in the parameter
scale Artificial Stock Market (the prices ing (through retraining) in order to main- settings could lead to significant changes
were not generated endogenously), its tain status quo in its performance in rela- in the market's behavior, both quantita-
simplicity and the interesting findings tion to the rest of population. This is tively and qualitatively. For any results to
deserve further attention. encapsulated in Lewis Caroll's Red be creditable, changes in the parameters
Queen (in Alice in Wonderland) who settings must not lead to significantly dif-
3.3. Studying Market Microstructure says in this place it takes all the running ferent results.
Another field that could benefit greatly you can do, to keep in the same place.
from using advanced computation meth- 4. Forecasting in Computational
ods is the study of Market 3.5. Computational Approaches Finance
Microstructure. Sometimes it is desirable to Game Theory
to compare different trading mecha- When one takes an agent-based 4.1. Predicting the Future
nisms; for example one may be interest- approach and studies the market's The strong position of EMH amongst
ed in comparing the continuous double microstructure, one has to focus on pos- academics did not deter attempts to pre-
auction (as studied in Yang 2002) with sible interaction between agents. Game dict the future - understandably given to
the simple Walrasian tatonnement (as theory describes the decisions of ration- the potential return. Thanks to advances
studied in Arthur et al 1997 and Arifovic al agents. One of the games most stud- in memory technology and the reduction
1994). We can stress the impact of these ied by computer scientists is the iterative in hardware prices, large quantities of
trading mechanisms in the price forma- prisoners' dilemma (Axelrod 1987), financial data are stored in data ware-
tion or the efficiency of different types of which payoff table is shown in Table 1. houses by Reuters and other compa-
markets. We can analyze the role played This is a dilemma because the equilibri- nies. Financial data is more widely avail-
by the market makers or the specialists um point is where both players choose to able to individual researchers. As a
on the price, or raise questions about the Defect, which give them each 1 in payoff, result, a significant amount of computing
asymmetry of information among the although they could have both achieved power is devoted to data analysis. Some
agents. The number of research oppor- a payoff of 3 had they both chosen to of the researchers focus on forecasting -
tunities to explore is countless. cooperate. or to see whether the market is pre-
Jin and Tsang applied genetic pro- dictable. Some of the questions in fore-
3.4. The Red Queen Thesis gramming to find strategies for casting are: (1) do patterns exist in past
In Santa Fes experiments, change of Rubinsteins model and confirmed that data? (2) if so, can they be found? and
behavior was exogenously imposed by
the experimenter. Chen et al 1994 and Table 1: The Payoff Table of the Prisoners Dilemma
2001, proposed an endogenous scheme
for retraining. In their experiments, prices
Player B
in the artificial market are determined by
artificial agents, which were modeled by Cooperate Defect
genetic programs (Koza 1992). Chen
and Yeh studied when and by how much Player B gets 3 Player B gets 5
agents (which are investors) retrain Cooperate
themselves. From the experimenters Player A gets 3 Player A gets 0
point of view, retraining was endoge-
Player A
nously motivated by peer pressure and Player B gets 0 Player B gets 1
self-realization. They prescribed a way in Defect
which agents look for better investment Player A gets 5 Player A gets 1
rules. To make an analogy to real world

10 IEEE Computational Intelligence Society August 2004


Feature Article (cont.)
(3) if patterns can be found, will they Mani proposed a new genetic- Table 2: A Sample Time Stamped Limit Order Book
repeat themselves in the future? algorithm-based system for French Stock 12062 at 02/03/04 11:00:03
Many technical analysts start with predicting the future perform- Ranking Price Quantity # of orders
daily closing prices. This is partly ances of individual stocks
Lowest offer 3 18.49 8,156 1
because this data is most widely avail- (Mahfoud et al 1997). Neeley et
able. Figure 1 is a sample chart showing al 1997 and Oussaidene et al Lowest offer 2 18.48 14,900 4
the daily closing prices of S&P 500. 1997 used genetic program- Lowest offer 1 18.47 6,531 2
ming (Koza 1992) to test Highest bid 1 18.46 179 1
4.2. Neural Networks in Forecasting whether technical rules could Highest bid 2 18.45 3,153 5
Neural networks play an important role be used to forecast foreign Highest bid 3 18.44 8,480 3
in financial forecasting (Batchelor 2001, exchange prices. Hayward
expertise in what indicators to use and
Dempster 2001 and Yao 2000). The used genetic algorithms, in combination
how to use them become more impor-
choices of input and output are crucial to with artificial neural networks, for stock
tant. For example, some variables may
the success of financial forecasting. For forecasting (Hayward 2004). Some suc-
be dominated by others; elimination of
example, in a network, one may choose cess has been achieved, which at least
less relevant variables would enable the
to input the last 6 daily closing prices and suggests that the potential of technical
algorithm to search in a smaller space
output a prediction of the next days trading should not be totally ignored.
(hence likely to be more effective given
price. Through supervised learning, the It cannot be emphasized enough that
the same amount of time). New inde-
network may be trained to adjust its con- the accuracy of a forecasting program is
pendent variables that provide higher
nection weights. not only limited by the algorithm that it
prediction power could be derived from
The performance of a trained network uses, but also by the quality of the data.
original variables; e.g. Korczak & Lipinski
depends on whether a day's closing EDDIE was developed as an interactive
2004 dynamically generated a reduced
price could be predicted by the closing tool to help analysts to search the space
set of (generated) variables for stock
prices of the six preceding days. If such of interactions and make financial deci-
trading.
dependency does not hold, then the sions (Tsang et al 1998, 2004). Given a
trained network is unlikely to produce set of variables, EDDIE attempts to find
4.5. Using High Frequency Data
accurate predictions. Therefore, the key interactions among variables and discov-
Some traders make their profits by
is in the selection of the inputs. The six er non-linear functions. FGP-2 is an
buying and selling within the same day.
preceding days closing prices are prob- implementation of EDDIE for financial
This is called intraday trading. To find
ably not as rich in information content as forecasting (Li 2001). By using a con-
patterns for automated intraday trading,
technical indicators such as moving strained fitness function, FGP-2 provides
daily closing prices are not terribly useful.
average, break out rules, maximum and the user with a handle for tuning the pre-
A system must be trained with data that
minimum prices in the n preceding days, cision against the rate of missing oppor-
come in at a higher rate. For example,
or fundamental indicators such as divi- tunities (Li 2001). This allows the user to
one could use tick by tick data - data that
dends, interest rate and money supply. pick investment opportunities with
record the transactions as the take place
greater confidence.
in real time. These are called high fre-
4.3. Evolutionary Computation in
quency data. Dempster et al 2001 used
Forecasting 4.4. Using Data with Richer
intraday data for foreign exchange trad-
Neural networks have sometimes Information Content
ing.
been criticized by financial practitioners Closing prices are the most widely
Transaction prices are not the only
as being black boxes (a proposition available data in the public domain. It is
information that could help intraday trad-
which is debatable, e.g. see Benitez et al reasonable to believe that the more infor-
ing. When the bids and offers are avail-
1997). Some researchers turned to evo- mation one uses, the more accurately
able, they should help to improve fore-
lutionary computation. Bauer was one of one can predict. In addition to closing
casting accuracy. Table 2 shows an
the first researchers to use genetic algo- prices, one could use the opening prices,
example of a record that may be useful
rithms to evolve investment strategies highest and lowest prices, volume, etc.
to a researcher. These records could be
(Bauer 1994). Results were encourag- as they are shown in Figure 1.
added to the transaction prices and vol-
ing, though not conclusive. Mahfoud & With more data available, financial
umes, which is not shown in Table 2
(transactions may not take place every
minute or second).
The record shown in Table 2 was
taken at a particular time point for the
French stock 12062. Even if only one
record is retained per minute, one could
be presented hundreds of records per
day. Each record here shows the three
highest bids and three lowest offers (one
could certainly include more bids and
offers if one wants to), the volume in
demand or supply and the number of
traders that make those bids and offers.
In the example shown, the best offer
asked for a price of 18.47 Euro. This
price was offered by two traders whose
Figure 1 - The open, closing, maximum and minimum prices and volume of S&P 500 total demand was 6,531 shares. The
highest bid was made by one trader, who
August 2004 IEEE Computational Intelligence Society 11
Feature Article (cont.) demanded 179 shares at the price 18.46 finance involves hard work by its very Arthur, W. B. (1994). Inductive Reasoning and
Bounded Rationality, American Economic
Euro. Data such as those shown in Table nature. This is because researchers
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2 provide the analysts with information must gain sufficient knowledge in com-
Arthur, W. B., Holland, J. H., LeBaron, B., Palmer, R.
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For example, it shows that if more sup- limitations are. Researchers also have to nous expectations in an artificial stock market, in
plies are close to the trading price than know enough about finance to know W. B. Arthur, S. Durlauf & D. Lane, (eds.), The
Economy as an Evolving Complex System II,
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12 IEEE Computational Intelligence Society August 2004


Feature
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Edward Tsang has a first degree in Business Administration (Major in Finance) and a PhD in
Computer Science. He has broad interest in applied artificial intelligence, in particularly com-
putational finance, heuristic search, constraint satisfaction and scheduling. He is currently a
professor in computer science at the University of Essex where he leads the Computational
Finance Group and Constraint Satisfaction and Optimization Group. He is also the Deputy
Director of the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents (CCFEA), an interdis-
ciplinary centre. He chairs the Technical Committee for Computational Finance under the IEEE
Computational Intelligence Society.

Serafn Martnez-Jaramillo received his BSc degree in Actuarial Sciences from the National
Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Mxico in 1994 and his MSc in Computer Science
degree from the University of Essex in 2003. Currently he is working to obtain a PhD in
Computational Finance from the University of Essex. His research interest includes constraint
satisfaction, genetic programming, financial markets, agent-based economics and computa-
tional finance. From May 1997 to September 2001 he worked as a computer systems analyst
at the Mexican Central Bank (Banco de Mxico).

August 2004 IEEE Computational Intelligence Society 13

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