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WEF FOJ Executive Summary Jobs PDF
WEF FOJ Executive Summary Jobs PDF
January 2016
Executive Summary:
The Future of Jobs and Skills
Rapid urbanization 8%
TECHNOLOGICAL
Artificial intelligence 7%
Rising geopolitical volatility New energy supplies and Advanced robotics and
Mobile internet and cloud technology technologies autonomous transport
Advances in computing power and The Internet of Things Artificial intelligence and
Big Data Advanced manufacturing and machine learning
Crowdsourcing, the sharing 3D printing Advanced materials,
economy and peer-to-peer platforms Longevity and ageing societies biotechnology and genomics
Rise of the middle class in emerging New consumer concerns about
markets ethical and privacy issues
Young demographics in emerging Womens rising aspirations and
markets economic power
Rapid urbanization
Changing work environments and
flexible working arrangements
Climate change, natural resource
constraints and the transition to a
greener economy
Changes in Ease of Recruitment sets required to do them. Across nearly all industries, the
Given the overall disruption industries are experiencing, it impact of technological and other changes is shortening the
is not surprising that, with current trends, competition for shelf-life of employees existing skill sets.
talent in in-demand job families such as Computer and For example, technological disruptions such as
Mathematical and Architecture and Engineering and other robotics and machine learningrather than completely
strategic and specialist roles will be fierce, and finding replacing existing occupations and job categoriesare
efficient ways of securing a solid talent pipeline a priority likely to substitute specific tasks previously carried out as
for virtually every industry. Most of these roles across part of these jobs, freeing workers up to focus on new
industries, countries and job families are already perceived tasks and leading to rapidly changing core skill sets in
as hard to recruit for currently andwith few exceptions these occupations. Even those jobs that are less directly
the situation is expected to worsen significantly over the affected by technological change and have a largely stable
2015-2020 period. employment outlooksay, marketing or supply chain
professionals targeting a new demographic in an emerging
SKILLS STABILITY marketmay require very different skill sets just a few years
In this new environment, business model change often from now as the ecosystems within which they operate
translates to skill set disruption almost simultaneously change.
and with only a minimal time lag. Our respondents report On average, by 2020, more than a third of the desired
that a tangible impact of many of these disruptions on the core skill sets of most occupations will be comprised of
adequacy of employees existing skill sets can already be skills that are not yet considered crucial to the job today,
felt in a wide range of jobs and industries today. according to our respondents. Overall, social skills
Given the rapid pace of change, business model such as persuasion, emotional intelligence and teaching
disruptions are resulting in a near-simultaneous impact otherswill be in higher demand across industries than
on skill sets for both current and emerging jobs across narrow technical skills, such as programming or equipment
industries. If skills demand is evolving rapidly at an operation and control. In essence, technical skills will need
aggregate industry level, the degree of changing skills to be supplemented with strong social and collaboration
requirements within individual job families and occupations skills.
is even more pronounced. Even jobs that will shrink in Several industries may find themselves in a scenario of
number are simultaneously undergoing change in the skill positive employment demand for hard-to-recruit specialist
1.0
0.5
0.0
of recruitment
Average ease
-0.5
0.5
0.34 0.49
1.0 0.55 0.14 0.54
0.42
0.63
1.5 0.53
2.0
Basic and Consumer Energy Financial Healthcare Information and Media, Mobility Professional
Infrastructure Services Communication Entertainment Services
& Investors Technology and Information
JOB FAMILIES
1.0
0.5
0.02
0.0
of recruitment
Average ease
0.5
0.67 0.34
1.0 0.43 0.58
0.44 0.20
0.29
1.5 0.70
0.20 1.00
2.0
Architecture Arts, Design, Business Computer Construction Installation Manage- Manufacturing Life, Office Sales and
and Entertainment, and and and and ment and Physical, and Related
Engineering Sports Financial Mathematical Extraction Maintenance Production and Administrative
and Media Operations Social
Sciences
COUNTRY/REGION
1.0
0.5
n/a 0.04
0.0
of recruitment
Average ease
0.5
0.65 0.39
0.71
0.62
1.0 0.44 0.41 0.06 0.67 0.21 0.13
0.50
1.5 0.50
2.0
0.85
ASEAN Australia Brazil China France GCC Germany India Italy Japan Mexico South Turkey United United
Africa Kingdom States
Geopolitical volatility
Rapid urbanization
0 10 20 30 40 50
TECHNOLOGICAL
Internet of Things
0 10 20 30 40 50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: Future of Jobs Survey, World Economic Forum.
Note: Names of drivers have been abbreviated to ensure legibility.
occupations with simultaneous skills instability across many Skills Stability, 20152020, industries overall
existing roles. For example, the Mobility industries expect
employment growth accompanied by a situation where Industry group Unstable Stable
nearly 40% of the skills required by key jobs in the industry Industries Overall 35% 65%
are not yet part of the core skill set of these functions today. Media, Entertainment and Information 27% 73%
At the same time, workers in lower skilled roles, Consumer 30% 71%
Manufacturing and Production job families, may find Energy 30% 70%
themselves caught up in a vicious cycle where low skills Professional Services 33% 67%
stability means they could face redundancy without Information and Communication Technology 35% 65%
significant re- and upskilling even while disruptive change Mobility 39% 61%
may erode employers incentives and the business case for Basic and Infrastructure 42% 58%
Mobility
60 Basic and Infrastructure
Financial Services & Investors
50
40
30
20
Negative outlook, Positiveoutlook,
skills disrupted 10 skills disrupted
0
1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
FUTURE WORKFORCE STRATEGY likely to plan to invest in reskilling than companies who do
The impact of technological, demographic and socio- not. This group of companies is also more than twice as
economic disruptions on business models will be felt likely to be targeting female talent and minority talent and
in transformations to the employment landscape and over 50% more likely to be supporting employees mobility
skills requirements, resulting in substantial challenges for and job rotation within the firm. They are significantly less
recruiting, training and managing talent. Not anticipating and likely to plan to hire more short-term workers or to use
addressing such issues in a timely manner over the coming expatriate talent.
years may come at an enormous economic and social cost A number of promising approaches appear
for businesses, individuals and economies and societies as underutilized across almost all industries. For example, a
a whole. focus on making better use of the accumulated experience
The Report finds that business leaders are aware of older employees and building an ageless workforce
of these looming challenges but have been slow to act barely register among proposed workforce strategies.
decisively. Just over two thirds of our respondents believe There also seems to be varying openness to collaboration,
that future workforce planning and change management whether within or across industries, with the latter
features as a reasonably high or very high priority on seemingly much more acceptable. Finally, a key approach,
the agenda of their companys or organizations senior partnerships with public institutions and the education
leadership. sector, is only reported by 20% of respondents.
However, many of the respondents are also acutely
aware of the limitations to their current planning for RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION
disruptive change and its implications for the talent Recent discussions about the employment impact of
landscape. Currently, only 53% of CHROs surveyed are disruptive change have often been polarized between those
reasonably or highly confident regarding the adequacy of who foresee limitless opportunities in newly emerging job
their organizations future workforce strategy to prepare categories and prospects that improve workers productivity
for these shifts. The main perceived barriers to a more and liberate them from routine work, and those that foresee
decisive approach include a lack of understanding of the massive labour substitution and displacement of jobs.
disruptive changes ahead, resource constraints and short- Both are possible. It is our actions today that will determine
term profitability pressures and lack of alignment between whether we head towards massive displacement of workers
workforce strategies and firms innovation strategies. or the emergence of new opportunities.
Across all industries, about two thirds of our During previous industrial revolutions, it often took
respondents report intentions to invest in the reskilling of decades to build the training systems and labour market
current employees as part of their change management institutions needed to develop major new skill sets on
and future workforce planning efforts, making it by far the a large scale. Given the upcoming pace and scale of
highest-ranked such strategy overall. However, companies disruption brought about by the Fourth Industrial Revolution,
that report both that they are confident in the adequacy of however, this is simply not be an option. Without targeted
their workforce strategy and that these issues are perceived action today to manage the near-term transition and build
as a priority by their top management are nearly 50% more a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have
Insufficientunderstandingofdisruptivechanges 51%
Resourceconstraints 50%
Pressurefromshareholders,short-termprofitability 42%
Workforcestrategynotalignedtoinnovationstrategy 37%
Insufficientprioritybytopmanagement 21%
Insufficientprioritybylinemanagement 18%
Nobarriers 8%
Investinreskillingcurrentemployees 65%
Supportmobilityandjobrotation 39%
Collaborate,educationalinstitutions 25%
Targetfemaletalent 25%
Attractforeigntalent 22%
Offerapprenticeships 22%
Collaborate,othercompaniesacrossindustries 14%
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Collaborate,othercompaniesinindustry 12%
Targetminoritiestalent 12%
Hiremoreshort-termworkers 11%
to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, of ready-made human capital. They require a new mindset
and businesses with a shrinking consumer base. Moreover, to meet their talent needs and to optimize social outcomes.
these efforts are necessary not just to mitigate the risks of Governments will need to re-consider fundamentally the
the profound shifts underway but also to capitalize on the education models of today. As the issue becomes more
opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. urgent, governments will need to show bolder leadership in
The talent to manage, shape and lead the changes putting through the curricula and labour market regulation
underway will be in short supply unless we take action changes that are already decades overdue in some
today to develop it. 0.0 0.1 economies.
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
For a talent revolution to take place, governments and While it is clear from our data that momentous change
businesses will need to profoundly change their approach is underway across the board, these forecasts vary in nature
to education, skills and employment, and their approach to in different industries and regions. Efforts aimed at closing
working with each other. Businesses will need to put talent skills gaps will increasingly need to be grounded in a solid
development and future workforce strategy front and centre understanding of a countrys or industrys skills base today
to their growth. Firms can no longer be passive consumers and of changing future skills requirements due to disruptive