Are you optimistic about

Sub Saharan Africas future?

A reflection
Fernando Magallanes Mato
 Africa has become one of the key regions in our contemporary world that seems
to be going to play a crucial role in the near future of the international arena. This is due
to several reasons that will be discussed along this essay. Indeed, this brief paper
consists on a personal reflection that will present an array of arguments and reasons
based on the authors personal thinking, which will be supported by a specific
bibliography presented at the end of this essay. By and large, this papers main thesis
will defend an optimistic and positive view on Africas future. Nevertheless, the pursuit
of development and growth will not be an easy one. On the contrary, Africans are likely
to tackle several obstacles and impediments which they need to overcome in order to
achieve a prosperous situation for the generations that are still to come. This essay will
deal with the mentioned problems that are still present in African societies and that
consist on political, social and economic issues. Furthermore, the international context
is also to play a key role in Africas future, especially as a result of the new world order
that is being established under Trumps administration, Chinas expansion overseas and
the EU crisis, which has a significant impact on African countries due to their
geographical closeness and the Sub Saharan migration flows that usually end up in
European societies. However, and in spite of all the plausible obstacles that need to be
solved, we do keep supporting our thesis based on an optimistic view on Africa and its
capacity to turn into a promising area that will achieve its challenging goals for the near
future. Therefore, this essay will start with an overview of the current African situation
and the issues that are still pending and must be tackled. Then, it will continue with
some prospects for the coming years and the possible path that will be followed by
African societies in the future. Finally, this essay will conclude with a general view on
the whole matter and some personal reflections.

To start with, we should take into consideration Africas recent past that has
shaped its present in a crucial way. As a matter of fact, many of todays African
structural problems have their origin in the colonial experience that the continent
suffered since the 19th century until the decades of the 50s and 60s in the 20th century1.

1
Davidson, Basil (1995): Colonial Africa to 1930. Modern Africa: A Social and
Political History. Longman Group.

1
As it can be seen, this represents quite a big lapse of time whose influence is still to be
found. Nowadays, several authors, such as Cowell claim that Africa has not been able to
endure a proper state-building process2. This is because the colonial powers decided to
split up the continent in an artificial way which was based on their own particular
interests and not on Africas reality (the Berlin Conference of 1885)3. As a result, the
continent lacked a proper industrialization4 which hindered an economic growth that
would eventually put it at the same level of European societies. What is more, the lack
of coherence between the boundaries that would become the official borders of African
states and the ethnic and cultural dimensions inside those boundaries, provoked that in
todays African countries there is still a necessity to create a proper national identity
with which African citizens will identify. On the contrary, we can observe that many
states have problems to raise awareness of national institutions (government, tax paying,
standardized education, etc.) among their populations, which causes plenty of problems
that need to be solved.

Actually, this lack of national feeling prevents African citizens from

participating in their countries state-building process. Many people do not recognize
their countries official borders and are likely to be more loyal towards their ethnic or
religious group rather than to their states own institutions and structures. This has been
seen in plenty of recent issues, such as the Rwandan genocide in 1994, where race
became more important than statehood and triggered a bloody and extremely violent
conflict5. However, we should not take a pessimistic view on this matter and conclude
that Africas future is destined to be a violent conflagration of war and destruction. On

2
Cowell, Alan (11/6/2000): The World: Britain in Africa; Colonialism's Legacy
Becomes a Burden. The New York Times.
3
Shillington, Kevin (2012): The European Scramble, Colonial Conquest and African
Resistance in East, Northe, Central and West Africa, History of Africa. Pages: 311-
316. Palgrave MacMillan.
4
Cowell, Alan. Op. cit.
5
Gourevitch, Philip (1998): We Wish to Inform You that Tomorrow We Will Be Killed
Along With Our Families: Stories from Rwanda. Farrar Straus and Giroux.

2
the contrary, many initiatives are now being taken in order to solve this issue by
creating solid structures that will enable Africa to join the state-based world system
established since Westphalia in 1648. Indeed, African societies are managing to
overcome these problems that are to be traced back to the colonial artificial division of
the continent. As an example, we can mention the Gacaca courts that Rwandans have
created after the genocide took place. This initiative which may seem simplistic to the
Western conception of law actually results in quite an efficient procedure since it gets
Rwandans involved in the process of reconstruction that their country needed after the
civil war. Furthermore, it made people participate in the judicial process against the
criminals and murderers instead of leaving the whole issue only to a foreign institution
(such as the International Court of Justice, for instance) which would have made the
process completely alien to the locals, who otherwise would not have had any chance to
make a difference in the change their own country needed6.

As a result, these local initiatives, if they are properly accompanied with a good
education system that includes all citizens (universal schooling is crucial in this
respect), will eventually produce a mature and participative African society that will
be willing to get involved in their countries development instead of leaving the issue to
foreign actors which will stand for their own interests (political or economic) and not
for Africas benefit. However, in order to do this, African governments do need to
implement efficient policies that will eventually make an impact and change the current
situation.

Nevertheless, not everything can be blamed to colonialism, although in general it

can be accused of being the source of the vast majority of Africas current challenges
that have gotten worse along the second half of the 20th century. Hence, we need to bear
in mind that Sub Saharan Africas future will highly depend on a crucial sector, i. e.
development. As a matter of fact, underdevelopment is traditionally associated with
Africa; nonetheless, this may not always remain the same in the future. Of course,
todays reality cannot be denied: life expectancy is extremely low in several countries,
poverty levels are quite high (in 2014, 57% of Sub Saharan population was living below
1.25$ per day) and the Human Development Index usually places African countries at

6
Aghion, Anne (Director) (2009): My Neighbor, My Killer [Motion picture]. USA,
France: Anne Aghion Films, Gacaca Productions.

3
the end of their rankings, as explained by the UN7. Nevertheless, the fact that this seems
to be todays circumstance, it does not mean that everything is going to remain
unaltered in the future. On the contrary, things can and -according to the authors view-
will change for the better. Although poverty indicators are not at all satisfying and
encouraging, it is also true that today they are much better than the ones carried out a
decade ago. If this trend keeps stable, the future seems to be quite promising, even
though African societies will still need plenty of time and effort to reach the welfare
level of the industrialized Western countries.

What is more, in order to keep growing, these African countries need something
more than their mere willpower and capacities. In this respect, the international
community does need to invest in humanitarian and development aid. However, this
sort of aid should not imply a purchase of African sovereignty that will imply a lack of
independence for their governments and institutions which will lack the capacity to
consolidate themselves and make decisions in an autonomous way which will enable
them to continue with their state-building process. On the contrary, this aid should be
based on international solidarity, especially taking into account the debt that Western
countries owe to African as a result of the exploitation and domination that took place
during imperialism in the region.

Furthermore, the issue of development aid and foreign investment is closely

related to a crucial factor that is taking place nowadays: Chinese investment in African
countries. This recent relation that has been established among both regions reveals a
new international scenario where Africa is becoming less dependent on former colonial
powers and is on the verge of getting closer to new superpowers, such as China8. This
issue will undoubtedly have a huge impact on Africas near future, since it will shape
new patterns in the economic and political relations of the continent. Nevertheless, we
should open the debate on whether this new relationship will bring more autonomy and

7
World Bank: Poverty and Equity Data. Region: Sub Saharan Africa. Accessible at
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SSA (retrieved 26/04/2017).
8
Sun, Yun (2014): Africa in Chinas Foreign Policy. Pages 3-11. Brookings

4
growth to Africa or not. It can be argued that former colonial powers (mainly France
and the United Kingdom) still maintain their domination over their former colonies
through different means (Commonwealth, investment or aid). However, the emergence
of China as Africas economic partner does not necessarily mean that the continent will
get rid of those ties that prevent it from achieving real independence. For instance, even
though China is now investing in countries such as Nigeria (building roads and airports,
hospitals, etc.), this has also a downside, i. e. the high rates of corruption among
Chinese companies or sweatshops9. What is more, the location of Chinese manufactures
has led to a massive rural exodus that increased joblessness in the countryside. As a
result, inequality becomes broader and the first critiques against Chinese investment are
starting to be heard among Africans. Nevertheless, this situation is not likely to change
as long as African governments keep encouraging these economic ties in spite of an
increase in inequality, poverty and exploitative work in their own countries. Therefore,
Africa should try to carry out a foreign policy in which its sovereignty is kept while
economic growth is achieved without worsening labor conditions. Only by doing that
will the continent get close to welfare states similar to the ones in the Western world.

In relation to sovereignty, we can consider the issue of regional integration as

one of the key features that will provide Africa with a prosperous and optimistic future.
Indeed, in our contemporary world the state system that was established by the
Europeans in the 17th century is no longer as crucial as it used to be. On the contrary,
regional integration in economic or political unions is all the rage. In this respect, we
should highlight the role of the African Union as the most promising regional
organization in the African context, despite all the obstacles that it will have to tackle in
order to survive in the future. To start with, the African Union began in 2002 to protect
the security of the continent and all African countries participate in it, even accepting
the right to intervene when human rights are violated, something to which not many are

9
Bradsher, Keith and Nossiter, Adam (5/12/2015). In Nigeria, Chinese Investment
Comes With a Downside. The New York Times. Accessible at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/business/international/in-nigeria-chinese-
investment-comes-with-a-downside.html (Retrieved on 26/04/2017)

5
willing to submit10. However, beyond the theory, the AU faces strong challenges to put
their measures and decisions into practice. For example, this regional block relies on
states that tend to be weak or fragile and, therefore, they are not able to implement the
policies that are approved in the framework of the organization. What is more, some of
its most prominent and strongest supporters were leaders such as Muammar Gaddafi,
who were widely known for their lack of respect for human rights and democracy. This
decreases the level of legitimacy and international recognition of the AU.

Furthermore, we can once again relate the issue of the AU with the above-
mentioned Chinese-African relations. This can be done since the most emblematic
building of the AU, its headquarters at Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), was built by the
Chinese as a gift for Africa11. Nevertheless, the AU should be aware that this gift
should by no means imply a transfer of sovereignty to the Chinese, since that would
hinder the organizations capacities to take decisions on its own. However, the
economic benefit that China represents for Africa is quite an attractive incentive that
will make some weak governments give some power to this foreign power instead on
concentrating on their own consolidations within their borders. This fact will make it
more difficult for the African organization to achieve a level of independence and
efficiency similar to the one of the EU. Nevertheless, in order to do that, the AU needs
to preserve its sovereignty and try to increase the cohesion between the different
member states. Now that Morocco has finally joined the union, it may be the right time
to establish closer relations and try to solve ongoing conflicts (such as the one in
Western Sahara or Darfur).

10
Moshi, Edwin H. (2013). Organization of African Unity/African Union and the
challenges of realizing its objectives. Workshop to Commemorate 50 years of
OAU/AU held on 24th May 2013 at J.K. Nyerere Hall, MUCCoBS.
11
Conway-Smith, Erin (28/01/2012). African Union's new Chinese-built headquarters
opens in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. GlobalPost, PRI. Accessible at:
https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-01-28/african-unions-new-chinese-built-headquarters-
opens-addis-ababa-ethiopia (Retrieved the 26/04/2017).

6
 As a matter of fact, among these objectives that the AU needs to take into
account in order to achieve an optimistic future, we can find the issue of the continents
reconstruction in the aftermath of several civil wars and violence that have caused
plenty of damage to Africa. In the previous paragraph, two specific cases (Western
Sahara and Darfur) were briefly mentioned; indeed, there are many other conflicts that
have taken place (or are still taking place) and have had a very negative influence on
Africa. Apart from the high statistics of deaths, injured people or refugees, African
infrastructures have been deeply damaged and the general image of the continent,
especially in the rest of the world, has become characterized by violence and
destruction. Nevertheless, this is not necessarily the case. For instance, countries like
Rwanda have fully recuperated and are now a tourist destination that attracts thousands
of visitors every year. Other nations, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, still
need to tackle plenty of issues to restore normality12. In any case, the future scenario
seems to be quite optimistic.

All in all, this essay has tried to provide the reader with an array of arguments
that advocate for an optimistic and positive vision of Africas future. In order to do this,
we have started with an analysis of the continents current situation and the problems
inherited from the colonial experience, which have prevented Africa from carrying out a
proper state-building process. Nevertheless, these issues can still be solved through a
higher commitment of African governments and citizens. In any case, Africa ought to
keep its sovereignty instead of transferring it to the more than attractive offers made by
foreign powers and institution, such as the previously explained case of the China-
Africa relations. Apart from that, as we explained, several structural problems need to
be tackled so as to ameliorate the current situation: the scars of years of violence, civil
war and genocide still need to be healed. However, original initiatives and innovative
policies are being implemented, such as the Gacaca trials in Rwanda, which help us
portray quite an optimistic view about a continent that seems to be going to play a
crucial role in the years to come.

12
Venugopalan, Harish (2016): Understanding the Conflict in Congo. ORF Issue
Brief. Issue No. 139.

7
References

Aghion, Anne (Director) (2009): My Neighbor, My Killer [Motion picture]. USA,

France: Anne Aghion Films, Gacaca Productions.

Bradsher, Keith and Nossiter, Adam (5/12/2015). In Nigeria, Chinese Investment

Comes With a Downside. The New York Times. Accessible at:
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/business/international/in-nigeria-chinese-
investment-comes-with-a-downside.html. (Retrieved on 26/04/2017).

Davidson, Basil (1995): Colonial Africa to 1930. Modern Africa: A Social and
Political History. Longman Group.

Conway-Smith, Erin (28/01/2012). African Union's new Chinese-built headquarters

opens in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. GlobalPost, PRI. Accessible at:
https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-01-28/african-unions-new-chinese-built-headquarters-
opens-addis-ababa-ethiopia (Retrieved the 26/04/2017).

Cowell, Alan (11/6/2000): The World: Britain in Africa; Colonialism's Legacy

Becomes a Burden. The New York Times. Accessible at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/11/weekinreview/the-world-britain-in-africa-
colonialism-s-legacy-becomes-a-burden.html.

Gourevitch, Philip (1998): We Wish to Inform You that Tomorrow We Will Be Killed
Along With Our Families: Stories from Rwanda. Farrar Straus and Giroux.

Moshi, Edwin H. (2013). Organization of African Unity/African Union and the

challenges of realizing its objectives. Workshop to Commemorate 50 years of
OAU/AU held on 24th May 2013 at J.K. Nyerere Hall, MUCCoBS.

Shillington, Kevin (2012): The European Scramble, Colonial Conquest and African
Resistance in East, Northe, Central and West Africa, History of Africa. Pages: 311-
316. Palgrave MacMillan.

Sun, Yun (2014): Africa in Chinas Foreign Policy. Pages 3-11. Brookings.

8
Venugopalan, Harish (2016): Understanding the Conflict in Congo. ORF Issue Brief.
Issue No. 139.

World Bank: Poverty and Equity Data. Region: Sub Saharan Africa. Accessible at
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/region/SSA (retrieved 26/04/2017).