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QUANTITATIVE METHODS

QUANTITATIVE METHODS

The Future Value of a Single Cash Flow


FVN = PV (1+ r)N
The Present Value of a Single Cash Flow

PV = FV
(1+ r)N

PVAnnuity Due = PVOrdinary Annuity (1 + r)


FVAnnuity Due = FVOrdinary Annuity (1 + r)

Present Value of a Perpetuity

PMT
PV(perpetuity) = I/Y

Continuous Compounding and Future Values


FVN = PVe rs * N

Effective Annual Rates


EAR = (1 + Periodic interest rate)N- 1

Net Present Value


N
CFt
NPV = t
t=0
(1 + r)
where
CFt = the expected net cash flow at time t
N = the investments projected life
r = the discount rate or appropriate cost of capital

Bank Discount Yield

D 360
rBD = F t

where:
rBD = the annualized yield on a bank discount basis.
D = the dollar discount (face value purchase price)
F = the face value of the bill
t = number of days remaining until maturity

Holding Period Yield


HPY = P1 - P0 + D1 = P1 + D1 - 1
P0 P0
where:
P0 = initial price of the investment.
P1 = price received from the instrument at maturity/sale.
D1 = interest or dividend received from the investment.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 3


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Effective Annual Yield


EAY= (1 + HPY)365/t - 1

where:
HPY = holding period yield
t = numbers of days remaining till maturity

HPY = (1 + EAY)t/365 - 1

Money Market Yield


RMM = 360 rBD
360 - (t rBD)

RMM = HPY (360/t)

Bond Equalent Yield

BEY = [(1 + EAY) ^ 0.5 - 1]

Population Mean

Where,
xi = is the ith observation.

Sample Mean

Geometric Mean

Harmonic Mean

with Xi > 0 for i = 1, 2,..., N.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 4


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Percentiles

where:
y = percentage point at which we are dividing the distribution
Ly = location (L) of the percentile (Py) in the data set sorted in ascending order

Range
Range = Maximum value - Minimum value

Mean Absolute Deviation

Where:
n = number of items in the data set
= the arithmetic mean of the sample

Population Variance

where:
Xi = observation i
= population mean
N = size of the population

Population Standard Deviation

Sample Variance

Sample variance =

where:
n = sample size.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 5


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Sample Standard Deviation

Coefficient of Variation

Coefficient of variation

where:
s = sample standard deviation
= the sample mean.

Sharpe Ratio

where:
= mean portfolio return
= risk-free return
s = standard deviation of portfolio returns

Sample skewness, also known as sample relative skewness, is calculated as:

(X - X)
i
3

SK =
[ n
(n - 1)(n - 2) ] i=1

s
3

As n becomes large, the expression reduces to the mean cubed deviation.


(X - X)
i=1
i
3

SK 3
n s
where:
s = sample standard deviation

2011 ELAN GUIDES 6


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Sample Kurtosis uses standard deviations to the fourth power. Sample excess kurtosis is
calculated as:

( )
n

KE = n(n + 1)
(X - X)
i=1
i
4

3(n - 1)
2

4

(n - 1)(n - 2)(n - 3) s (n - 2)(n - 3)

As n becomes large the equation simplifies to:


(X - X)
i=1
i
4

KE 4
3
n s
where:
s = sample standard deviation

For a sample size greater than 100, a sample excess kurtosis of greater than 1.0 would be
considered unusually high. Most equity return series have been found to be leptokurtic.

Odds for an event

Where the odds for are given as a to b, then:

Odds for an event

Where the odds against are given as a to b, then:

2011 ELAN GUIDES 7


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Conditional Probabilities

Multiplication Rule for Probabilities

Addition Rule for Probabilities

For Independant Events

P(A|B) = P(A), or equivalently, P(B|A) = P(B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)


P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

The Total Probability Rule


P(A) = P(AS) + P(ASc)
P(A) = P(A|S) P(S) + P(A|Sc) P(Sc)

The Total Probability Rule for n Possible Scenarios


P(A) = P(A|S1) P(S1) + P(A|S2) P(S2) + ...+ P(A|Sn) P(Sn)
where the set of events {S1, S2,..., Sn} is mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

Expected Value


i=1

Where:
Xi = one of n possible outcomes.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 8


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Variance and Standard Deviation


2 2
(X) = E{[X - E(X)] }
n

(X) = P(Xi) [Xi - E(X)]


2 2

i=1

The Total Probability Rule for Expected Value

1. E(X) = E(X|S)P(S) + E(X|Sc)P(Sc)


2. E(X) = E(X|S1) P(S1) + E(X|S2) P(S2) + ...+ E(X|Sn) P(Sn)

Where:
E(X) = the unconditional expected value of X
E(X|S1) = the expected value of X given Scenario 1
P(S1) = the probability of Scenario 1 occurring
The set of events {S1, S2,..., Sn} is mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

Covariance
Cov (XY) = E{[X - E(X)][Y - E(Y)]}
Cov (RA,RB) = E{[RA - E(RA)][RB - E(RB)]}

Correlation Coefficient
Cov (RA,RB)
Corr (RA,RB) = (RA,RB) =
(A)(B)

Expected Return on a Portfolio

Where:

Portfolio Variance

Variance of a 2 Asset Portfolio

2011 ELAN GUIDES 9


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Variance of a 3 Asset Portfolio

Bayes Formula

Counting Rules
The number of different ways that the k tasks can be done equals n1 n2 n3 nk.

Combinations

Remember: The combination formula is used when the order in which the items are assigned the
labels is NOT important.

Permutations

Discrete uniform distribution


F(x) = n p(x) for the nth observation.

Binomial Distribution

where:
p = probability of success
1 - p = probability of failure
= number of possible combinations of having x successes in n trials. Stated differently, it is the number
of ways to choose x from n when the order does not matter.

Variance of a binomial random variable

2011 ELAN GUIDES 10


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

The Continuous Uniform Distribution


P(X < a), P (X >b) = 0
x2 -x1
P (x1 X x2 ) = b - a

Confidence Intervals

For a random variable X that follows the normal distribution:


The 90% confidence interval is - 1.65s to + 1.65s
The 95% confidence interval is - 1.96s to + 1.96s
The 99% confidence interval is - 2.58s to + 2.58s

The following probability statements can be made about normal distributions

Approximately 50% of all observations lie in the interval


Approximately 68% of all observations lie in the interval
Approximately 95% of all observations lie in the interval
Approximately 99% of all observations lie in the interval

z-Score
z = (observed value - population mean)/standard deviation = (x )/

Roys safety-first criterion

Minimize P(RP< RT)


where:
RP = portfolio return
RT = target return

Shortfall Ratio

Continuously Compounded Returns

= continuously compounded annual rate

2011 ELAN GUIDES 11


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Sampling Error

Sampling error of the mean = Sample mean - Population mean =

Standard Error of Sample Mean when Population variance is Known

where:
= the standard error of the sample mean
= the population standard deviation
n = the sample size

Standard Error of Sample Mean when Population variance is Not Known

where:
= standard error of sample mean
s = sample standard deviation.

Confidence Intervals

Point estimate (reliability factor standard error)

where:
Point estimate = value of the sample statistic that is used to estimate the population
parameter
Reliability factor = a number based on the assumed distribution of the point
estimate and the level of confidence for the interval (1- ).
Standard error = the standard error of the sample statistic (point estimate)

where:
= The sample mean (point estimate of population mean)
z/2 = The standard normal random variable for which the probability of an
observation lying in either tail is / 2 (reliability factor).
= The standard error of the sample mean.
n

where:
= sample mean (the point estimate of the population mean)
= the t-reliability factor
= standard error of the sample mean

s = sample standard deviation

2011 ELAN GUIDES 12


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Test Statistic

Sample statistic - Hypothesized value


Test statistic =
Standard error of sample statistic

Power of a Test
Power of a test = 1 - P(Type II error)

Decision Rules for Hypothesis Tests

Decision H0 is True H0 is False

Do not reject H0 Correct decision Incorrect decision


Type II error

Reject H0 Incorrect decision Correct decision


Type I error Power of the test
Significance level = = 1 - P(Type II
P(Type I error) error)

Confidence Interval

[( sample
)(
statistic
-
critical
value )( standard
error )] (

population
parameter ) [(

sample
)(
statistic
+
critical
value )( standard
error )]
x - (z) ( ) 0 x + (z) ( )

Summary
Null Alternate Fail to reject
Type of test hypothesis hypothesis Reject null if null if P-value represents

One tailed H0 : 0 Ha : 0 Test statistic > Test statistic Probability that lies
(upper tail) critical value critical value above the computed
test test statistic.

One tailed H0 : 0 Ha : 0 Test statistic < Test statistic Probability that lies
(lower tail) critical value critical value below the computed
test test statistic.

Two-tailed H0 : =0 Ha : 0 Test statistic < Lower critical Probability that lies


Lower critical value test above the positive
value statistic value of the computed
Test statistic > Upper critical test statistic plus the
Upper critical value probability that lies
value below the negative
value of the computed
test statistic

2011 ELAN GUIDES 13


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

t-Statistic
x - 0
t-stat =

Where:
x = sample mean
0= hypothesized population mean
s = standard deviation of the sample
n = sample size

z-Statistic
x - 0 x - 0
z-stat = z-stat =

Where: Where:
x = sample mean x = sample mean
0= hypothesized population mean 0= hypothesized population mean
= standard deviation of the population s = standard deviation of the sample
n = sample size n = sample size

Tests for Means when Population Variances are Assumed Equal

Where:

s12 = variance of the first sample


s22 = variance of the second sample
n1 = number of observations in first sample
n2 = number of observations in second sample
degrees of freedom = n1 + n2 -2

2011 ELAN GUIDES 14


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Tests for Means when Population Variances are Assumed Unequal

t-stat

Where:

s12 = variance of the first sample


s22 = variance of the second sample
n1 = number of observations in first sample
n2 = number of observations in second sample

Paired Comparisons Test

Where:
d = sample mean difference
sd = standard error of the mean difference=
sd = sample standard deviation
n = the number of paired observations

Hypothesis Tests Concerning the Mean of Two Populations - Appropriate Tests

Relationship Assumption
Population between regarding
distribution samples variance Type of test

Normal Independent Equal t-test pooled


variance

Normal Independent Unequal t-test with


variance not
pooled

Normal Dependent N/A t-test with


paired
comparisons

2011 ELAN GUIDES 15


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Chi Squared Test-Statistic

Where:
n = sample size
s2 = sample variance
2 = hypothesized value for population variance
0

Test-Statistic for the F-Test

Where:
s12 = Variance of sample drawn from Population 1
s22 = Variance of sample drawn from Population 2

Hypothesis tests concerning the variance.

Hypothesis Test Concerning Appropriate test statistic

Variance of a single, normally distributed Chi-square stat


population

Equality of variance of two independent, F-stat


normally distributed populations

Setting Price Targets with Head and Shoulders Patterns

Price target = Neckline - (Head - Neckline)

Setting Price Targets for Inverse Head and Shoulders Patterns

Price target = Neckline + (Neckline - Head)

Momentum or Rate of Change Oscillator

M = (V - Vx) 100

where:
M = momentum oscillator value
V = last closing price
Vx = closing price x days ago, typically 10 days

2011 ELAN GUIDES 16


QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Relative Strength Index

100
RSI = 100
1 + RS

(Up changes for the period under consideration)


where RS =
(|Down changes for the period under consideration|)

Stochastic Oscillator

%K = 100
( C L14
H14 L14 )
where:
C = last closing price
L14 = lowest price in last 14 days
H14 = highest price in last 14 days

%D (signal line) = Average of the last three %K values calculated daily.

Short Interest ratio


Short interest
Short interest ratio =
Average daily trading volume

Arms Index

Number of advancing issues / Number of declining issues


Arms Index =
Volume of advancing issues / Volume of declining issues

2011 ELAN GUIDES 17


ECONOMICS

ECONOMICS

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS: INTRODUCTION

The demand function captures the effect of all these factors on demand for a good.

Demand function: QDx = f(Px, I, Py, . . .) (Equation 1)

Equation 1 is read as the quantity demanded of Good X (QDX) depends on the price of
Good X (PX), consumers incomes (I) and the price of Good Y (PY), etc.

The supply function can be expressed as:

Supply function: QSx = f(Px, W, . . .) (Equation 5)

The own-price elasticity of demand is calculated as:

%QDx
EDPx = (Equation 16)
%Px

If we express the percentage change in X as the change in X divided by the value of X,


Equation 16 can be expanded to the following form: Slope of demand
function.

Coefficient on own-
QDx price in market
%QDx QDx QDx Px
EDPx =
%Px
=
Px
Px
= ( Px )( )
QDx
(Equation 17)
demand function

Arc elasticity is calculated as:

(Q0 - Q1)
100
% change in quantity demanded % Qd (Q0 + Q1)/2
EP = = =
% change in price % P (P0 - P1)
100
(P0 + P1)/2

2011 ELAN GUIDES 18


ECONOMICS

Income Elasticity of Demand

Income elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of demand for a particular good
to a change in income, holding all other things constant.
Same as coefficient
on I in market
demand function
(Equation 11)
QDx
%QDx QDx QDx I
EDI =
%I
=
I
I
= ( I )( )
QDx
(Equation 18)

% change in quantity demanded


EI =
% change in income

Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand

Cross elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of demand for a particular good to
a change in price of another good, holding all other things constant.
Same as coefficient
on PY in market
demand function
(Equation 11) QDx
%QDx QDx QDx Py
EDPy =
%Py
=
Py
Py
= ( Py )( )
QDx
(Equation 19)

% change in quantity demanded


EC =
% change in price of substitute or complement

2011 ELAN GUIDES 19


ECONOMICS

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS: CONSUMER DEMAND

he Utility Function

In general a utility function can be represented as:

U = f(Qx1, Qx2,..., Qxn)

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS: THE FIRM

Accounting Profit

Accounting profit (loss) = Total revenue Total accounting costs.

Economic Profit

Economic profit (also known as abnormal profit or supernormal profit) is calculated as:

Economic profit = Total revenue Total economic costs

Economic profit = Total revenue (Explicit costs + Implicit costs)

Economic profit = Accounting profit Total implicit opportunity costs

Normal Profit

Normal profit = Accounting profit - Economic profit

Total, Average and Marginal Revenue

Table 2: Summary of Revenue Terms 2

Revenue Calculation

Total revenue (TR) Price times quantity (P Q), or the sum of individual units
sold times their respective prices; (Pi Qi)

Average revenue (AR) Total revenue divided by quantity; (TR / Q)

Marginal revenue (MR) Change in total revenue divided by change in quantity; (TR
/ Q)

2011 ELAN GUIDES 20


ECONOMICS

Total, Average, Marginal, Fixed and Variable Costs

Table 5: Summary of Cost Terms 3


Costs Calculation

Total fixed cost (TFC) Sum of all fixed expenses; here defined to include all
opportunity costs

Total variable cost (TVC) Sum of all variable expenses, or per unit variable cost
times quantity; (per unit VC Q)

Total costs (TC) Total fixed cost plus total variable cost; (TFC + TVC)

Average fixed cost (AFC ) Total fixed cost divided by quantity; (TFC / Q)

Average variable cost (AVC) Total variable cost divided by quantity; (TVC / Q)

Average total cost (ATC) Total cost divided by quantity; (TC / Q) or (AFC + AVC)

Marginal cost (MC) Change in total cost divided by change in quantity;


(TC / Q)

Marginal revenue product (MRP) of labor is calculated as:

MRP of labor = Change in total revenue / Change in quantity of labor

For a firm in perfect competition, MRP of labor equals the MP of the last unit of labor times
the price of the output unit.

MRP = Marginal product * Product price

A profit-maximizing firm will hire more labor until:

MRPLabor = PriceLabor

Profits are maximized when:

MRP1 MRPn
= ... =
Price of input 1 Price of input n

2 Exhibit 3, pg 106, Volume 2, CFA Program Curriculum 2012

2011 ELAN GUIDES 21


ECONOMICS

THE FIRM AND MARKET STRUCTURES

The relationship between MR and price elasticity can be expressed as:

MR = P[1 (1/EP)]

In a monopoly, MC = MR so:

P[1 (1/EP)] = MC

N-firm concentration ratio: Simply computes the aggregate market share of the N largest
firms in the industry. The ratio will equal 0 for perfect competition and 100 for a monopoly.

Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI): Adds up the squares of the market shares of each of the
largest N companies in the market. The HHI equals 1 for a monopoly. If there are M firms
in the industry with equal market shares, the HHI will equal 1/M.

AGGREGATE OUTPUT, PRICE, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Nominal GDP refers to the value of goods and services included in GDP measured at current
prices.

Nominal GDP = Quantity produced in Year t Prices in Year t

Real GDP refers to the value of goods and services included in GDP measured at base-year
prices.

Real GDP = Quantity produced in Year t Base-year prices

GDP Deflator

Value of current year output at current year prices


GDP deflator = 100
Value of current year output at base year prices

Nominal GDP
GDP deflator = 100
Real GDP

2011 ELAN GUIDES 22


ECONOMICS

The Components of GDP

Based on the expenditure approach, GDP may be calculated as:

GDP = C + I + G + (X M)

C = Consumer spending on final goods and services


I = Gross private domestic investment, which includes business investment in capital
goods (e.g. plant and equipment) and changes in inventory (inventory investment)
G = Government spending on final goods and services
X = Exports
M = Imports

Expenditure Approach

Under the expenditure approach, GDP at market prices may be calculated as:

This equation is just GDP = Consumer spending on goods and services


a breakdown of the
expression for GDP + Business gross fixed investment
we stated in the + Change in inventories
previous LOS, i.e.
GDP = C + I + G + + Government spending on goods and services
(X M). + Government gross fixed investment
+ Exports Imports
+ Statistical discrepancy

Income Approach

Under the income approach, GDP at market prices may be calculated as:

GDP = National income + Capital consumption allowance


+ Statistical discrepancy (Equation 1)

National income equals the sum of incomes received by all factors of production used to
generate final output. It includes:

Employee compensation
Corporate and government enterprise profits before taxes, which includes:
o Dividends paid to households
o Corporate profits retained by businesses
o Corporate taxes paid to the government
Interest income
Rent and unincorporated business net income (proprietors income): Amounts earned
by unincorporated proprietors and farm operators, who run their own businesses.
Indirect business taxes less subsidies: This amount reflects taxes and subsidies that
are included in the final price of a good or service, and therefore represents the
portion of national income that is directly paid to the government.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 23


ECONOMICS

The capital consumption allowance (CCA) accounts for the wear and tear or depreciation
that occurs in capital stock during the production process. It represents the amount that must
be reinvested by the company in the business to maintain current productivity levels. You
should think of profits + CCA as the amount earned by capital.

Personal income = National income


Indirect business taxes
Corporate income taxes
Undistributed corporate profits
+ Transfer payments (Equation 2)

Personal disposable income = Personal income Personal taxes (Equation 3)

Personal disposable income = Household consumption + Household saving

(Equation 4)

Household saving = Personal disposable income


Consumption expenditures
Interest paid by consumers to businesses
Personal transfer payments to foreigners (Equation 5)

Business sector saving = Undistributed corporate profits


+ Capital consumption allowance (Equation 6)

GDP = Household consumption + Total private sector saving + Net taxes

The equality of expenditure and income

S = I + (G T) + (X M) (Equation 7)

The IS Curve (Relationship between Income and the Real Interest Rate)

Disposable income = GDP Business saving Net taxes

S I = (G T) + (X M) (Equation 7)

2011 ELAN GUIDES 24


ECONOMICS

The LM Curve

Quantity theory of money: MV = PY

The quantity theory equation can also be written as:

M/P and MD/P = kY

where :

k = I/V
M = Nominal money supply
MD = Nominal money demand
MD/P is referred to as real money demand and M/P is real money supply.

Equilibrium in the money market requires that money supply and money demand be equal.

Money market equilibrium: M/P = RMD

Solow (neoclassical) growth model

Y = AF(L,K)

Where:

Y = Aggregate output
L = Quantity of labor
K = Quantity of capital
A = Technological knowledge or total factor productivity (TFP)

Growth accounting equation

Growth in potential GDP = Growth in technology + WL(Growth in labor)


+ WK(Growth in capital)

Growth in per capital potential GDP = Growth in technology


+ WK(Growth in capital-labor ratio)

Measures of Sustainable Growth

Labor productivity = Real GDP/ Aggregate hours

Potential GDP = Aggregate hours Labor productivity

This equation can be expressed in terms of growth rates as:

Potential GDP growth rate = Long-term growth rate of labor force + Long-term labor
productivity growth rate

2011 ELAN GUIDES 25


ECONOMICS

UNDERSTANDING BUSINESS CYCLES

Unit labor cost (ULC) is calculated as:

ULC = W/O

Where:

O = Output per hour per worker


W = Total labor compensation per hour per worker

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY

Required reserve ratio = Required reserves / Total deposits

Money multiplier = 1/ (Reserve requirement)

The Fischer effect states that the nominal interest rate (RN) reflects the real interest rate (RR)
and the expected rate of inflation (e).

RN = RR + e

The Fiscal Multiplier

Ignoring taxes, the multiplier can also be calculated as:

o 1/(1-MPC) = 1/(1-0.9) = 10

Assuming taxes, the multiplier can also be calculated as:


1
[1 - MPC(1-t)]

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS

Balance of Payment Components

A countrys balance of payments is composed of three main accounts.


The current account balance largely reflects trade in goods and services.
The capital account balance mainly consists of capital transfers and net sales of
non-produced, non-financial assets.
The financial account measures net capital flows based on sales and purchases of
domestic and foreign financial assets.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 26


ECONOMICS

CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES


The real exchange rate may be calculated as:

Real exchange rateDC/FC = SDC/FC (PFC / PDC)

where:
SDC/FC = Nominal spot exchange rate
PFC = Foreign price level quoted in terms of the foreign currency
PDC = Domestic price level quoted in terms of the domestic currency

The forward rate may be calculated as:

1 (1 + rDC) (1 + rDC) This version of the


FDC/FC = or FDC/FC = SDC/FC formula is perhaps
SFC/DC (1 + rFC) (1 + rFC) easiest to remember
because it contains
the DC term in
numerator for all
three components:
FDC/FC, SDC/FC
and (1 + rDC)

Forward rates are sometimes interpreted as expected future spot rates.

Ft = St+1

(St + 1) (rDC rFC)


S(DC/FC)t + 1 =
S (1 + rFC)

Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance

The Elasticities Approach

Marshall-Lerner condition: XX + M(M 1) > 0

Where:
X = Share of exports in total trade
M = Share of imports in total trade
X = Price elasticity of demand for exports
M = Price elasticity of demand for imports

2011 ELAN GUIDES 27


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

2
Exhibit 10, pg 72, Vol 3, CFA Program Curriculum 2012

2011 ELAN GUIDES 28


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Basic EPS
Basic EPS = Net income Preferred dividends
Weighted average number of shares outstanding

Diluted EPS

Diluted EPS =
[ Net income -
Preferred
dividends ] +
Convertible
preferred +
dividends
[
Convertible
debt (1 - t)
interest
]
Shares from Shares from
Weighted Shares
conversion of conversion of
average + + + issuable from
convertible convertible
shares stock options
preferred shares debt

Comprehensive Income
Net income + Other comprehensive income = Comprehensive income

Gains and Losses on Marketable Securities

Held-to-Maturity Available-for-sale Trading


Securities Securities Securities
Balance Sheet Reported at cost or Reported at fair value. Reported at fair value.
amortized cost.
Unrealized gains or losses
due to changes in
market values are reported
in other comprehensive
income within owners
equity.

Items recognized Interest income Dividend income. Dividend income.


on the income
statement Realized gains Interest income. Interest income.
and losses.
Realized gains Realized gains and losses.
and losses.
Unrealized gains and
losses due to changes in
market values.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 29


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Cash Flow Classification under U.S. GAAP

CFO
Inflows Outflows
Cash collected from customers. Cash paid to employees.
Interest and dividends received. Cash paid to suppliers.
Proceeds from sale of securities held for trading. Cash paid for other expenses.
Cash used to purchase trading
securities.
Interest paid.
Taxes paid.
CFI
Inflows Outflows
Sale proceeds from fixed assets. Purchase of fixed assets.
Sale proceeds from long-term investments. Cash used to acquire LT investment
securities.

CFF
Inflows Outflows
Proceeds from debt issuance. Repayment of LT debt.
Proceeds from issuance of equity instruments. Payments made to repurchase stock.
Dividends payments.

Cash Flow Statements under IFRS and U.S. GAAP

IFRS U.S. GAAP


Classification of Cash Flows

Interest and dividends received CFO or CFI CFO


Interest paid CFO or CFF CFO

Dividend paid CFO or CFF CFF


Dividends received CFO or CFI CFO
Taxes paid CFO, but part of the tax can be CFO
categorized as CFI or CFF if it is clear
that the tax arose from investing or
financing activities.

Bank overdrafts Included as a part of cash equivalents. Not considered a part of cash equivalents
and included in CFF.

Presentation Format

CFO Direct or indirect method. The former is Direct or indirect method. The former is
(No difference in CFI and preferred. preferred. However, if the direct method
CFF presentation) is used, a reconciliation of net income
and CFO must be included.

Disclosures

Taxes paid should be presented separately If taxes and interest paid are not explicitly
on the cash flow statement. stated on the cash flow statement, details
can be provided in footnotes.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 30


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Free Cash Flow to the Firm

FCFF = NI + NCC + [Int * (1 tax rate)] FCInv WCInv

FCFF = CFO + [Int * (1 tax rate)] FCInv

Free Cash Flow to Equity

FCFE = CFO - FCInv + Net borrowing

Inventory Turnover
Cost of goods sold
Inventory turnover =
Average inventory

Days of Inventory on Hand


365
Days of inventory on hand (DOH) =
Inventory turnover

Receivables Turnover
Revenue
Receivables turnover =
Average receivables

Days of Sales Outstanding


365
Days of sales outstanding (DSO) =
Receivables turnover

Payables Turnover
Purchases
Payables turnover =
Average trade payables

Number of Days of Payables


365
Number of days of payables =
Payables turnover

Working Capital Turnover


Revenue
Working capital turnover =
Average working capital

Fixed Asset Turnover


Revenue
Fixed asset turnover =
Average fixed assets

Total Asset Turnover


Revenue
Total Asset Turnover =
Average total assets

2011 ELAN GUIDES 31


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Current Ratio
Current assets
Current ratio =
Current liabilities

Quick Ratio
Cash + Short-term marketable investments + Receivables
Quick ratio =
Current liabilities

Cash Ratio
Cash + Short-term marketable investments
Cash ratio =
Current liabilities

Defensive Interval Ratio


Cash + Short-term marketable investments + Receivables
Defensive interval ratio =
Daily cash expenditures

Cash Conversion Cycle


Cash conversion cycle = DSO + DOH Number of days of payables

Debt-to-Assets Ratio
Total debt
Debt-to-assets ratio =
Total assets

Debt-to-Capital Ratio
Total debt
Debt-to-capital ratio =
Total debt + Shareholders equity

Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Total debt
Debt-to-equity ratio =
Shareholders equity

Financial Leverage Ratio


Average total assets
Financial leverage ratio =
Average total equity

Interest Coverage Ratio


EBIT
Interest coverage ratio =
Interest payments

Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio


EBIT + Lease payments
Fixed charge coverage ratio =
Interest payments + Lease payments

Gross Profit Margin


Gross profit
Gross profit margin =
Revenue

2011 ELAN GUIDES 32


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Operating Profit Margin


Operating profit
Operating profit margin =
Revenue

Pretax Margin
EBT (earnings before tax, but after interest)
Pretax margin =
Revenue

Net Profit Margin


Net profit
Net profit margin =
Revenue

Return on Assets
Net income
ROA =
Average total assets
Net income + Interest expense (1 Tax rate)
Adjusted ROA =
Average total assets
Operating income or EBIT
Operating ROA =
Average total assets

Return on Total Capital


EBIT
Return on total capital =
Short-term debt + Long-term debt + Equity

Return on Equity
Net income
Return on equity =
Average total equity

Return on Common Equity


Net income Preferred dividends
Return on common equity =
Average common equity

DuPont Decomposition of ROE


Net income
ROE =
Average shareholders equity

2-Way Dupont Decomposition


Net income Average total assets
ROE =
Average total assets Average shareholders equity

ROA Leverage
3-Way Dupont Decomposition
Net income Revenue Average total assets
ROE =
Revenue Average total assets Average shareholders equity

Net profit margin Asset turnover Leverage

2011 ELAN GUIDES 33


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

5-Way Dupont Decomposition

Interest burden Asset turnover

Net income EBT EBIT Revenue Average total assets


ROE =
EBT EBIT Revenue Average total assets Avg. shareholders equity

Tax burden EBIT margin Leverage

Price- to-Earnings Ratio


Price per share
P/E =
Earnings per share
Price to Cash Flow
Price per share
P/CF =
Cash flow per share
Price to Sales
Price per share
P/S =
Sales per share
Price to Book Value
Price per share
P/BV =
Book value per share
Per Share Ratios

Cash flow from operations


Cash flow per share =
Average number of shares outstanding

EBITDA
EBITDA per share =
Average number of shares outstanding

Common dividends declared


Dividends per share =
Weighted average number of ordinary shares
Dividend Payout Ratio
Common share dividends
Dividend payout ratio =
Net income attributable to common shares
Retention Rate
Net income attributable to common shares Common share dividends
Retention Rate =
Net income attributable to common shares
Growth Rate
Sustainable growth rate = Retention rate ROE

2011 ELAN GUIDES 34


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

LIFO versus FIFO (with rising prices and stable inventory levels.)

LIFO versus FIFO when Prices are Rising

LIFO FIFO
COGS Higher Lower
Income before taxes Lower Higher
Income taxes Lower Higher
Net income Lower Higher
Cash flow Higher Lower
EI Lower Higher
Working capital Lower Higher

Effect on Effect on
Type of Ratio Numerator Denominator Effect on Ratio

Profitability ratios. Income is lower Sales are the same Lower under LIFO.
NP and GP margins under LIFO because under both.
COGS is higher

Debt to equity Same debt levels Lower equity under Higher under LIFO
LIFO

Current ratio Current assets are Current liabilities Lower under LIFO
lower under LIFO are the same.
because EI is lower.

Quick ratio Assets are higher as Current liabilities Higher under LIFO
a result of lower are the same
taxes paid

Inventory turnover COGS is higher Average inventory Higher under LIFO


under LIFO is lower under LIFO

Total asset turnover Sales are the same Lower total assets Higher under LIFO
under LIFO

2011 ELAN GUIDES 35


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Financial Statement Effects of Capitalizing versus Expensing

Effect on Financial Statements

Initially when the cost is Noncurrent assets increase.


capitalized Cash flow from investing activities decreases.

In future periods when the asset Noncurrent assets decrease.


is depreciated or amortized Net income decreases.
Retained earnings decrease.
Equity decreases.

When the cost is expensed Net income decreases by the entire after-tax
amount of the cost.
No related asset is recorded on the balance
sheet and therefore, no depreciation or
amortization expense is charged in future
periods.
Operating cash flow decreases.
Expensed costs have no financial statement
impact in future years.

Capitalizing Expensing
Net income (first year) Higher Lower
Net income (future years) Lower Higher
Total assets Higher Lower
Shareholders equity Higher Lower
Cash flow from operations Higher Lower
Cash flow from investing Lower Higher
Income variability Lower Higher
Debt to equity Lower Higher

2011 ELAN GUIDES 36


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Straight Line Depriciation


Original cost - Salvage value
Depreciation expense =
Depreciable life

Accelerated Depriciation
2
DDB depreciation in Year X = Book value at the beginning of Year X
Depreciable life

Estimated Useful Life


Gross investment in fixed assets
Estimated useful life =
Annual depreciation expense

Average Cost of Asset


Accumulated depreciation
Average age of asset =
Annual depreciation expense

Remaining Useful Life


Net investment in fixed assets
Remaining useful life =
Annual depreciation expense

Treatment of Temporary Differences

Carrying amount is greater.


Tax base is greater.
Carrying amount is greater.
Tax base is greater.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 37


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Income Tax Accounting under IFRS versus U.S. GAAP


IFRS U.S. GAAP
ISSUE SPECIFIC TREATMENTS
Revaluation of fixed Recognized in equity as deferred Revaluation is prohibited.
assets and intangible taxes.
assets.

Treatment of Recognized as deferred taxes No recognition of deferred


undistributed profit except when the parent company taxes for foreign subsidiaries
from investment in is able to control the distribution that fulfill indefinite reversal
subsidiaries. of profits and it is probable that criteria.
temporary differences will not No recognition of deferred
reverse in future. taxes for domestic
subsidiaries when amounts
are tax-free.

Treatment of Recognized as deferred taxes No recognition of deferred


undistributed profit except when the investor controls taxes for foreign corporate
from investments in the sharing of profits and it is joint ventures that fulfill
joint ventures. probable that there will be no indefinite reversal criteria.
reversal of temporary differences
in future.

Treatment of Recognized as deferred taxes Deferred taxes are recognized


undistributed profit except when the investor controls from temporary differences.
from investments in the sharing of profits and it is
associates. probable that there will be no
reversal of temporary differences
in future.
DEFERRED TAX MEASUREMENT
Tax rates. Tax rates and tax laws enacted Only enacted tax rates and
or substantively enacted. tax laws are used.

Deferred tax asset Recognized if it is probable that Deferred tax assets are
recognition. sufficient taxable profit will be recognized in full and then
available in the future. reduced by a valuation
allowance if it is likely that
they will not be realized.
DEFERRED TAX PRESENTATION
Offsetting of deferred Offsetting allowed only if the Same as in IFRS.
tax assets and liabilities. entity has right to legally enforce
it and the balance is related to a
tax levied by the same authority.

Balance sheet Classified on balance sheet as Classified as either current or


classification. net noncurrent with noncurrent based on
supplementary disclosures. classification of underlying
asset and liability.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 38


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Effective Tax rate


Income tax expense
Effective tax rate =
Pretax income

Income Tax Expense


Income tax expense = Taxes Payable + Change in DTL - Change in DTA

Income Statement Effects of Lease Classification

Income Statement Item Finance Lease Operating Lease


Operating expenses Lower Higher
Nonoperating expenses Higher Lower
EBIT (operating income) Higher Lower
Total expenses- early years Higher Lower
Total expenses- later years Lower Higher
Net income- early years Lower Higher
Net income- later years Higher Lower

Balance Sheet Effects of Lease Classification


Balance Sheet Item Capital Lease Operating Lease

Assets Higher Lower


Current liabilities Higher Lower
Long term liabilities Higher Lower
Total cash Same Same

Cash Flow Effects of Lease Classification


CF Item Capital Lease Operating Lease
CFO Higher Lower
CFF Lower Higher
Total cash flow Same Same

2011 ELAN GUIDES 39


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Impact of Lease Classification on Financial Ratios

Numerator Denominator Ratio Better or


under Finance under Finance Worse under
Ratio Lease Lease Effect on Ratio Finance Lease

Asset turnover Sales- same Assets- higher Lower Worse

Return on assets* Net income lower Assets- higher Lower Worse


in early years

Current ratio Current assets- Current Lower Worse


same liabilities-
higher

Leverage ratios Debt- higher Equity same. Higher Worse


(D/E and D/A) Assets higher

Return on equity* Net income lower Equity same Lower Worse


in early years

* In early years of the lease agreement.

Financial Statement Effects of Lease Classification from Lessors Perspective


Financing Lease Operating Lease
Total net income Same Same
Net income (early years) Higher Lower
Taxes (early years) Higher Lower
Total CFO Lower Higher
Total CFI Higher Lower
Total cash flow Same Same

2011 ELAN GUIDES 40


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Definitions of Commonly Used Solvency Ratios

Solvency Ratios Description Numerator Denominator

Leverage Ratios

Debt-to-assets ratio Expresses the percentage Total debt Total assets


of total assets financed by
debt

Debt-to-capital ratio Measures the percentage Total debt Total debt + Total
of a companys total capital shareholders equity
(debt + equity) financed by
debt.

Debt-to-equity ratio Measures the amount of Total debt Total shareholders


debt financing relative to equity
equity financing

Financial leverage ratio Measures the amount of Average total assets Average shareholders
total assets supported by equity
one money unit of equity.

Coverage Ratios

Interest coverage ratio Measures the number of EBIT Interest payments


times a companys EBIT
could cover its interest
payments.

Fixed charge coverage ratio Measures the number of EBIT + Lease Interest payments +
times a companys earnings payments Lease payments
(before interest, taxes and
lease payments) can cover
the companys interest and
lease payments.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 41


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Adjustments related to inventory:

EIFIFO = EILIFO + LR

where
LR = LIFO Reserve

COGSFIFO = COGSLIFO - (Change in LR during the year)

Net income after tax under FIFO will be greater than LIFO net income after tax by:
Change in LIFO Reserve (1 - Tax rate)

When converting from LIFO to FIFO assuming rising prices:

Equity (retained earnings) increase by:


LIFO Reserve (1 - Tax rate)

Liabilities (deferred taxes) increase by:


LIFO Reserve (Tax rate)

Current assets (inventory) increase by:


LIFO Reserve

Adjustments related to property, plant and equipment:

Gross investment in fixed assets Accumulated depreciation Net investment in fixed assets
= +
Annual depreciation expense Annual depreciation expense Annual depreciation expense

Estimated useful or depreciable Average age of asset Remaining useful life


life
Annual depreciation expense times The book value of the asset divided
The historical cost of an asset the number of years that the asset by annual depreciation expense
divided by its useful life equals has been in use equals equals the number of years the asset
annual depreciation expense under accumulated depreciation. has remaining in its useful life.
the straight line method. Therefore, Therefore, accumulated
the historical cost divided by annual depreciation divided by annual
depreciation expense equals the depreciation equals the average
estimated useful life. age of the asset.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 42


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Categories of Marketable Securities and Accounting Treatment

Unrealized and
Balance Sheet Realized Gains and Income (Interest &
Classification Value Losses Dividends)
Held-to-maturity Amortized cost Unrealized: Not Recognized on
(Par value +/- reported income statement.
unamortized Realized:
premium/ discount). Recognized on
income statement.

Held-for-trading Fair Value. Unrealized: Recognized on


Recognized on income statement.
income statement.
Realized:
Recognized on
income statement.

Available-for-sale Fair Value. Unrealized: Recognized on


Recognized in other income statement.
comprehensive
income.
Realized:
Recognized on
income statement.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 43


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Inventory Accounting under IFRS versus U.S. GAAP


Permitted Cost Changes in Balance
Balance Sheet Recognition Methods Sheet Value

U.S. GAAP Lower of cost or LIFO. Permits inventory


market. FIFO. write downs,
Weighted average but not reversal of
cost. write downs.

Permits inventory
IFRS Lower of cost or net FIFO.
realizable value. Weighted Average write downs,
Cost. and also reversals of
write downs.

Property, Plant and Equipment


Effects of Changes
Changes in Balance in Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Sheet Value Value

U.S. GAAP Cost minus Does not permit upward No effect.


accumulated revaluation.
depreciation.

IFRS Cost minus Permits upward The increase in the assets


accumulated revaluation. value from revaluation is
depreciation. reported as a part of equity
Asset is reported at fair unless it is reversing a
value at the revaluation previously-recognized
date less accumulated decrease in the value of the
depreciation following asset.
the revaluation.
A decrease in the value of
the asset is reported on the
income statement unless it
is reversing a previously-
reported upward
revaluation.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 44


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Long-Term Investments
Percent Ownership Extent of Control Accounting Treatment

Less than 20% No significant control Classified as held-to-maturity, trading,


or available for sale securities.

20% - 50% Significant Influence Equity method.

More than 50% Significant Control Consolidation.

Shared (joint ventures) Joint Control Equity method/ proportionate


consolidation.

Treatment of Identifiable Intangible Assets

Changes in Effects of Changes in


Balance Sheet Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Value Value

U.S. GAAP Only purchased intangibles Does not permit No effect.


may be recognized as upward
assets. Internally developed revaluation.
items cannot be recognized
as assets.

Reported at cost minus


accumulated amortization
for assets with finite useful
lives.

Reported at cost minus


impairment for assets with
infinite useful lives.

IFRS Only purchased intangibles Permits upward An increase in value is


may be recognized as revaluation. recognized as a part of
assets. Internally developed equity unless it is a
items cannot be recognized Assets are reversal of a
as assets. reported at fair previously recognized
value as of the downward revaluation.
Reported at cost minus revaluation date
accumulated amortization less subsequent A decrease in value is
for assets with finite useful accumulated recognized on the
lives. amortization. income statement
unless it is a reversal
Reported at cost minus of a previously
impairment for assets with recognized upward
infinite useful lives. revaluation.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 45


FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

Long-Term Contracts

Outcome can be reliably Outcome cannot be reliably


estimated estimated
U.S. GAAP Percentage-of-completion Completed contract
method. method.
IFRS Percentage-of-completion Revenue is recognized to the
method. extent that it is probable to
recover contract costs.

Profit is only recognized at project


completion.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 46


CORPORATE FINANCE

CORPORATE FINANCE

Net Present Value (NPV)

where
CFt = after-tax cash flow at time, t.
r = required rate of return for the investment. This is the firms cost of capital adjusted
for the risk inherent in the project.
Outlay = investment cash outflow at t = 0.

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Average Accounting Rate of Return (AAR)

Average net income


AAR =
Average book value

Profitability Index

PV of future cash flows NPV


PI = = 1 +
Initial investment Initial investment

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Where:
wd = Proportion of debt that the company uses when it raises new funds
rd = Before-tax marginal cost of debt
t = Companys marginal tax rate
wp = Proportion of preferred stock that the company uses when it raises new funds
rp = Marginal cost of preferred stock
we = Proportion of equity that the company uses when it raises new funds
re = Marginal cost of equity

To Transform Debt-to-equity Ratio into a components weight

2011 ELAN GUIDES 47


CORPORATE FINANCE

Valuation of Bonds

where:
P0 = current market price of the bond.
PMTt = interest payment in period t.
rd = yield to maturity on BEY basis.
n = number of periods remaining to maturity.
FV = Par or maturity value of the bond.

Valuation of Preferred Stock

Dp
Vp =
rp
where:
Vp = current value (price) of preferred stock..
Dp = preferred stock dividend per share.
rp = cost of preferred stock.

Required Return on a Stock

Capital Asset Pricing Model

re = RF + i[E(RM) - RF]

where
[E(RM) - RF] = Equity risk premium.
RM = Expected return on the market.
i = Beta of stock . Beta measures the sensitivity of the stocks returns to
changes in market returns.
RF = Risk-free rate.
re = Expected return on stock (cost of equity)

Dividend Discount Model

where:
P0 = current market value of the security.
D1= next years dividend.
re = required rate of return on common equity.
g = the firms expected constant growth rate of dividends.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 48


CORPORATE FINANCE

Rearranging the above equation gives us a formula to calculate the required return on equity:

Sustainable Growth Rate

Where (1 - (D/EPS)) = Earnings retention rate

Bond Yield plus Risk Premium Approach

To Unlever the beta

To Lever the beta

Country Risk Premium

Country risk Sovereign yield Annualized standard deviation of equity index


=
premium spread Annualized standard deviation of sovereign
bond market in terms of the developed market
currency

Amount of capital at which a components cost of capital changes


Break point =
Proportion of new capital raised from the component

Degree of Operating Leverage

Percentage change in operating income


DOL =
Percentage change in units sold

2011 ELAN GUIDES 49


CORPORATE FINANCE

Q (P V)
DOL =
Q (P V) F

where:
Q = Number of units sold
P = Price per unit
V = Variable operating cost per unit
F = Fixed operating cost
Q (P V) = Contribution margin (the amount that units sold contribute to covering fixed
costs)
(P V) = Contribution margin per unit

Degree of Financial Leverage

Percentage change in net income


DFL =
Percentage change in operating income

[Q(P V) F](1 t) [Q(P V) F]


DFL = =
[Q(P V) F C](1 t) [Q(P V) F C]

where:
Q = Number of units sold
P = Price per unit
V = Variable operating cost per unit
F = Fixed operating cost
C = Fixed financial cost
t = Tax rate

Degree of Total Leverage

Percentage change in net income


DTL =
Percentage change in the number of units sold

DTL = DOL DFL

Q (P V)
DTL =
[Q(P V) F C]

where:
Q = Number of units produced and sold
P = Price per unit
V = Variable operating cost per unit
F = Fixed operating cost
C = Fixed financial cost

2011 ELAN GUIDES 50


CORPORATE FINANCE

Break point

PQ = VQ + F + C

where:
P = Price per unit
Q = Number of units produced and sold
V = Variable cost per unit
F = Fixed operating costs
C = Fixed financial cost

The breakeven number of units can be calculated as:

F+C
QBE =
PV

Operating breakeven point

PQOBE = PV + F

F
QOBE =
PV

2011 ELAN GUIDES 51


CORPORATE FINANCE

Purchases = Ending inventory + COGS - Beginning inventory

2011 ELAN GUIDES 52


CORPORATE FINANCE

Face value - Price


% Discount =
Price

365
Inventory turnover

Accounts payable
Number of days of payables =
Average days purchases
Accounts payable 365
=
Purchases / 365 Payables turnover

2011 ELAN GUIDES 53


CORPORATE FINANCE

2011 ELAN GUIDES 54


PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Holding Period Return

Pt Pt-1 + Dt P Pt-1 D
R= = t + t = Capital gain + Dividend yield
Pt-1 Pt-1 Pt-1
PT + DT
= -1
P0

where:
Pt = Price at the end of the period
Pt-1 = Price at the beginning of the period
Dt = Dividend for the period

Holding Period Returns for more than One Period

R = [(1 + R1) (1 + R2) .... (1 + Rn)] 1

where:
R1, R2,..., Rn are sub-period returns

Geometric Mean Return


1/n
R = {[(1 + R1) (1 + R2) .... (1 + Rn)] } 1

Annualized Return
n
rannual = (1 + rperiod) - 1

where:
r = Return on investment
n = Number of periods in a year

2011 ELAN GUIDES 55


PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Portfolio Return

Rp = w1R1 + w2R2
where:
Rp = Portfolio return
w1 = Weight of Asset 1
w2 = Weight of Asset 2
R1 = Return of Asset 1
R2 = Return of Asset 2

Variance of a Single Asset


T

2
(R - )
t=1
t
2

=
T

where:
Rt = Return for the period t
T = Total number of periods
= Mean of T returns

Variance of a Representative Sample of the Population

2
(R - R)
t=1
t
2

s =
T-1

where:
R = mean return of the sample observations
2
s = sample variance

Standard Deviation of an Asset

T T

(R - )
t=1
t
2
(R - R)
t=1
t
2

= s=
T T-1

Variance of a Portfolio of Assets

N
2
=
P w w Cov(R ,R )
i,j = 1
i j i j

N N
2
=
P w Var(R ) +
i=1
2
i i
i,j = 1, i j
wiwjCov(Ri,Rj)

2011 ELAN GUIDES 56


PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Standard Deviation of a Portfolio of Two Risky Assets

Utility Function

2
U = E(R) A
2

where:
U = Utility of an investment
E(R) = Expected return
2
= Variance of returns
A = Additional return required by the investor to accept an additional unit of risk.

Capital Allocation Line

The CAL has an intercept of RFR and a constant slope that equals:

Expected Return on portfolios that lie on CML

E(Rp) = w1Rf + (1 - w1) E(Rm)

Variance of portfolios that lie on CML

2 2 2 2 2
= w1 f + (1 - w1) m + 2w1(1 - w1)Cov(Rf,Rm)

Equation of CML

E(Rm) - Rf
E(Rp) = Rf + p
m

where:
y-intercept = Rf = risk-free rate
E(Rm) - Rf
slope = = market price of risk.
m

2011 ELAN GUIDES 57


PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Systematic and Nonsystematic Risk

Total Risk = Systematic risk + Unsystematic risk

Return-Generating Models
k k

E(Ri) - Rf = E(F ) = [E(R ) - R ] + E(F )


j=1
ij j i1 m f
j=2
ij j

The Market Model

Ri = i + iRm + ei

Calculation of Beta

Cov(Ri,Rm) i,mim i,mi


i = 2
= 2
=
m m m

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

E(Ri) = Rf + i[E(Rm) Rf]

Sharpe ratio

Rp Rf
Sharpe ratio =
p

Treynor ratio

Rp Rf
Treynor ratio =
p
2
M-squared (M )

2 m
M = (Rp Rf) Rm Rf
p

Jensens alpha

pRp [RfpRm Rf)]

Security Characteristic Line

Ri RfiiRm Rf)

2011 ELAN GUIDES 58


EQUITY

EQUITY

The price at which an investor who goes long on a stock receives a margin call is calculated
as:
(1 - Initial margin)
P0
(1 Maintenance margin)

The value of a price return index is calculated as follows:


N

nP
i=1
i i

VPRI =
D

where:
VPRI = Value of the price return index
ni = Number of units of constituent security i held in the index portfolio
N = Number of constituent securities in the index
Pi = Unit price of constituent security i
D = Value of the divisor

Price Return

The price return of an index can be calculated as:

VPRI1 VPRI0
PRI =
VPRI0

where:
PRI = Price return of the index portfolio (as a decimal number)
VPRI1 = Value of the price return index at the end of the period
VPRI0 = Value of the price return index at the beginning of the period

The price return of each constituent security is calculated as:

Pi1 Pi0
PRi =
Pi0
where:
PRi = Price return of constituent security i (as a decimal number)
Pi1 = Price of the constituent security i at the end of the period
Pi0 = Price of the constituent security i at the beginning of the period

2011 ELAN GUIDES 59


EQUITY

The price return of the index equals the weighted average price return of the constituent
securities. It is calculated as:

PRI = w1PR1 + w2PR2 + ....+ wNPRN


where:
PRI = Price return of the index portfolio (as a decimal number)
PRi = Price return of constituent security i (as a decimal number)
wi = Weight of security i in the index portfolio
N = Number of securities in the index

Total Return

The total return of an index can be calculated as:

VPRI1 VPRI0 IncI


TRI =
VPRI0

where:
TRI = Total return of the index portfolio (as a decimal number)
VPRI1 = Value of the total return index at the end of the period
VPRI0 = Value of the total return index at the beginning of the period
IncI = Total income from all securities in the index held over the period

The total return of each constituent security is calculated as:

P1i P0i Inci


TRi =
P0i
where:
TRi = Total return of constituent security i (as a decimal number)
P1i = Price of constituent security i at the end of the period
P0i = Price of constituent security i at the beginning of the period
Inci = Total income from security i over the period

The total return of the index equals the weighted average total return of the constituent
securities. It is calculated as:

TRI = w1TR1 + w2TR2 + ....+ wNTRN


where:
TRI = Total return of the index portfolio (as a decimal number)
TRi = Total return of constituent security i (as a decimal number)
wi = Weight of security i in the index portfolio
N = Number of securities in the index

2011 ELAN GUIDES 60


EQUITY

Calculation of Index Returns over Multiple Time Periods

Given a series of price returns for an index, the value of a price return index can be calculated
as:

VPRIT = VPRI0 (1 + PRI1) (1 + PRI2) ... (1 + PRIT)

where:
VPRI0 = Value of the price return index at inception
VPRIT = Value of the price return index at time t
PRIT = Price return (as a decimal number) on the index over the period

Similarly, the value of a total return index may be calculated as:

VTRIT = VTRI0 (1 + TRI1) (1 + TRI2) ... (1 + TRIT)

where:
VTRI0 = Value of the index at inception
VTRIT = Value of the index at time t
TRIT = Total return (as a decimal number) on the index over the period

Price Weighting

Pi
wiP = N

P
i=1
i

Equal Weighting

1
wiE =
N

where:
wi = Fraction of the portfolio that is allocated to security i or weight of security i
N = Number of securities in the index

Market-Capitalization Weighting

QiPi
wiM = N

QP
j=1
j j

where:
wi = Fraction of the portfolio that is allocated to security i or weight of security i
Qi = Number of shares outstanding of security i
Pi = Share price of security i
N = Number of securities in the index

2011 ELAN GUIDES 61


EQUITY

The float-adjusted market-capitalization weight of each constituent security is calculated as:

fiQiPi
wiM = N

fQP
j=1
j j j

where:
fi = Fraction of shares outstanding in the market float
wi = Fraction of the portfolio that is allocated to security i or weight of security i
Qi = Number of shares outstanding of security i
Pi = Share price of security i
N = Number of securities in the index

Fundamental Weighting

Fi
wiF = N

F
j=1
j

where:
Fi = A given fundamental size measure of company i

Return Characteristics of Equity Securities

Total Return, Rt = (Pt Pt-1 + Dt) / Pt-1


where:
Pt-1 = Purchase price at time t 1
Pt = Selling price at time t
Dt = Dividends paid by the company during the period

Accounting Return on Equity

NIt NIt
ROEt = =
Average BVEt (BVEt + BVEt-1)/2

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

2011 ELAN GUIDES 62


EQUITY

One year holding period:

Multiple-Year Holding Period DDM

where:
Pn = Price at the end of n years.

Infinite Period DDM (Gordon Growth Model)


1 2 3
D0 (1 + gc) D0 (1 + gc) D0 (1 + gc) D0 (1 + gc)
PV0 = 1 + 2 + 3 +...+
(1 + ke) (1 + ke) (1 + ke) (1 + ke)

This equation simplifies to:

1
D0 (1 + gc) D1
PV = 1 =
(ke - gc) ke - g c

The long-term (constant) growth rate is usually calculated as:

gc = RR ROE

Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model

where:

Dn = Last dividend of the supernormal growth period


Dn+1 = First dividend of the constant growth period

The Free-Cash-Flow-to-Equity (FCFE) Model

FCFE = CFO FC Inv + Net borrowing

2011 ELAN GUIDES 63


EQUITY

Analysts may calculate the intrinsic value of the companys stock by discounting their
projections of future FCFE at the required rate of return on equity.

FCFEt
V0 = (1 + k )
t=1 e
t

Value of a Preferred Stock

When preferred stock is non-callable, non-convertible, has no maturity date and pays dividends
at a fixed rate, the value of the preferred stock can be calculated using the perpetuity formula:
D0
V0 =
r

For a non-callable, non-convertible preferred stock with maturity at time, n, the value of the
stock can be calculated using the following formula:
n Dt F
V0 = (1 + r)
t=1
t
+
(1 + r)
n

where:
V0 = value of preferred stock today (t = 0)
Dt = expected dividend in year t, assumed to be paid at the end of the year
r = required rate of return on the stock
F = par value of preferred stock

Price Multiples

P0 D1/E1
=
E1 r-g

Market price of share


Price to cash flow ratio =
Cash flow per share

Market price per share


Price to sales ratio =
Net sales per share

Market value of equity


Price to sales ratio =
Total net sales

2011 ELAN GUIDES 64


EQUITY

Current market price of share


P/BV =
Book value per share

Market value of common shareholders equity


P/BV =
Book value of common shareholders equity

where:
Book value of common shareholders equity =
(Total assets - Total liabilities) - Preferred stock

Enterprise Value Multiples

EV/EBITDA

where:

EV = Enterprise value and is calculated as the market value of the companys common stock
plus the market value of outstanding preferred stock if any, plus the market value of debt,
less cash and short term investments (cash equivalents).

2011 ELAN GUIDES 65


FIXED INCOME

FIXED INCOME

Bond Coupon
Coupon = Coupon rate Par value

Coupon Rate (Floating)


Coupon Rate = Reference rate + Quoted margin

Coupon Rate (Inverse Floaters)


Coupon rate = K L (Reference rate)

Callable Bond Price


Price of a callable bond = Value of option-free bond Value of embedded call option

Putable Bond Price


Price of a putable bond = Value of option-free bond + Value of embedded put option
Dollar Duration
Dollar duration = Duration Bond value

Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities

TIPS coupon = Inflation adjusted par value (Stated coupon rate/2)

Nominal spread
Nominal spread (Bond Y as the reference bond) = Yield on Bond X Yield on Bond Y

Relative Yield spread


Yield on Bond X Yield on Bond Y
Relative yield spread =
Yield on Bond Y

Yield Ratio
Yield on Bond X
Yield ratio =
Yield on Bond Y

After-Tax Yield
After-tax yield = Pretax yield (1- marginal tax rate)

Taxable-Equalent Yield
Tax-exempt yield
Taxable-equivalent yield =
(1 marginal tax rate)

2011 ELAN GUIDES 66


FIXED INCOME

Bond Value
Maturity value
Bond Value =
(1+i) years till maturity 2
where i equals the semiannual discount rate

Valuing a Bond Between Coupon Payments.

Days between settlement date and next coupon payment date


w=
Days in coupon period

where:
w = Fractional period between the settlement date and the next coupon payment date.

Expected cash flow


Present value t =
(1 + i) t 1 + w

Current Yield
Annual cash coupon
Current yield =
Bond price

Bond Price

Bond price

where:
Bond price = Full price including accrued interest.
CPNt = The semiannual coupon payment received after t semiannual periods.
N = Number of years to maturity.
YTM = Yield to maturity.

Formula to Convert BEY into Annual-Pay YTM:


2
Annual-pay yield = 1 + ( Yield on bond equivalent basis
2
-1 ]
Formula to Convert Monthly Cash Flow Yield into BEY
BEY = [(1 + monthly CFY)6 1] 2

Discount Basis Yeild


360
d = (1-p)
N

2011 ELAN GUIDES 67


FIXED INCOME

Z-Spread
Z-spread = OAS + Option cost; and OAS = Z-spread - Option cost

Duration
V- - V+
Duration =
2(V0)(y)

where:
y = change in yield in decimal
V0 = initial price
V- = price if yields decline by y
V+ = price if yields increase by y

Portfolio Duration
Portfolio duration = w1D1 + w2D2 + ..+ wNDN

where:
N = Number of bonds in portfolio.
Di = Duration of Bond i.
wi = Market value of Bond i divided by the market value of portfolio.

Percentage Change in Bond Price


Percentage change in bond price = duration effect + convexity adjustment
= {[-duration (y)] + [convexity (y)2]} 100
where:
y = Change in yields in decimals.

Convexity
V+ + V- - 2V0
C= 2
2V0(y)

Price Value of a Basis Point


Price value of a basis point = Duration 0.0001 bond value

2011 ELAN GUIDES 68


DERIVATIVES

DERIVATIVES

FRA Payoff
Floating rate at expiration FRA rate (days in floating rate/ 360)
1 + [Floating rate at expiration (days in floating rate/ 360)

Numerator: Interest savings on the hypothetical loan. This number is positive when the floating rate
is greater than the forward rate. When this is the case, the long benefits and expects to receive a payment
from the short. The numerator is negative when the floating rate is lower than the forward rate. When this
is the case, the short benefits and expects to receive a payment from the long.

Denominator: The discount factor for calculating the present value of the interest savings.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 69


DERIVATIVES

Call Option Payoffs

Intrinsic Value of a Call Option


Intrinsic value of call = Max [0, (St - X)]

Put Option Payoffs

Moneyness and Intrinsic Value of a Put Option

2011 ELAN GUIDES 70


DERIVATIVES

Option Premium
Option premium = Intrinsic value + Time value
Put-Call Parity
C0 + X = P0 + S0
T
(1 + RF)

Synthetic Derivative Securities

Strategy Consisting of Value Equals Strategy Consisting of Value

fiduciary long call + C0 + X = Protective long put + long P0 + S0


call long bond (1 + RF)T put underlying asset

long long C0 = Synthetic long put + long P0 + S0


call call call underlying asset - X/(1+RF)T
+ short bond

long long P0 = Synthetic put long call + short C0 - S0


put put underlying asset +X/(1+RF)T
+ long bond

long long S0 = Synthetic long call C0


underlying underlying underlying + long bond + X/(1+RF)T
asset asset asset + short put - P0

long long X = Synthetic long put + long P0 + S0


bond bond (1 + RF)T bond underlying asset - C0
+ short call

Option Value Limits


Option Minimum Value Maximum Value

European call ECt 0 ECt St


American call ACt 0 ACt St
European put EPt 0 EPt X/ (1 + RFR)T
American put APt 0 APt X

2011 ELAN GUIDES 71


DERIVATIVES

Option Value Bounds

Interest Rate Call Holders Payoff

= Max (0, Underlying rate at expiration - Exercise rate) (Days in underlying Rate) NP
360
where: NP = Notional principal

Interest Rate Put Holders Payoff

= Max (0, Exercise rate Underlying rate at expiration) (Days in underlying rate) NP
360
where:
NP = Notional principal

Net Payment for a Fixed-Rate-Payer

Net fixed-rate paymentt = (Swap fixed rate - LIBORt-1 )(No. of days/360)(NP)


where:
NP equals the notional principal.

2011 ELAN GUIDES 72


DERIVATIVES

Summary of Options Strategies


Call Put
CT = max(0,ST - X) PT = max(0,X - ST)
Value at expiration = CT Value at expiration = PT
Profit: CT - C0 Profit: PT - P0
Holder Maximum profit = Maximum profit = X - P0
Maximum loss = C0 Maximum loss = P0
Breakeven: ST* = X + C0 Breakeven: ST* = X - P0

CT = max(0,ST-X) PT = max(0,X - ST)


Value at expiration = CT Value at expiration = PT
Writer Profit: CT - C0 Profit: PT - P0
Maximum profit = C0 Maximum profit = P0
Maximum loss = Maximum loss = X - P0
Breakeven: ST* = X + C0 Breakeven: ST* = X - P0

Where: C0, CT = price of the call option at time 0 and time T


P0, PT = price of the put option at time 0 and time T
X = exercise price
S0, ST = price of the underlying at time 0 and time T
V0, VT = value of the position at time 0 and time T
profit from the transaction: VT - V0
r = risk-free rate

Covered Call

Value at expiration: VT = ST - max(0,ST - X)


Profit: VT - S0 + C0
Maximum profit = X - S0 + C0
Maximum loss = S0 - C0
Breakeven: ST* = S0 - C0
Protective Put

Value at expiration: VT = ST + max(0,X - ST)


Profit: VT - S0 - P0
Maximum profit =
Maximum loss = S0 + P0 - X
Breakeven: ST* = S0 + P0

2011 ELAN GUIDES 73

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