NFLPPG

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## Warning: package 'dplyr' was built under R version 3.4.2

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## Attaching package: 'dplyr'

## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':

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## filter, lag

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## intersect, setdiff, setequal, union

## Warning: Column `Real_Tm` joining factors with different levels, coercing

## to character vector

# total points scored in entire season / number of games in season

nfl_df$points_per_game <- with(nfl_df,ifelse(nfl_df$G>0,nfl_df$PF/nfl_df$G))

# total pass yards / total pass attempts

nfl_df$pass_eff <-
with(nfl_df,ifelse(nfl_df$Att>0,nfl_df$Yds.1/nfl_df$Att,0))

# total rush yards / total rush attempts

nfl_df$rush_eff <-
with(nfl_df,ifelse(nfl_df$Att.1>0,nfl_df$Yds.2/nfl_df$Att.1,0))

# total pass attempts by offense / total rush attempts by offense

nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio <-
with(nfl_df,ifelse(nfl_df$Att.1>0,nfl_df$Att/nfl_df$Att.1,0))

# total pass yards allowed on defense / total pass attempts by opposing team
nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt<-
with(nfl_df,ifelse(nfl_df$DEF_Att>0,nfl_df$DEF_Yds.1/nfl_df$DEF_Att,0))

# total rush yards allowed on defense / total rush attempts by opposing team
nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt<-
with(nfl_df,ifelse(nfl_df$DEF_Att.1>0,nfl_df$DEF_Yds.2/nfl_df$DEF_Att.1,0))

reg1 <- lm(nfl_df$points_per_game ~ nfl_df$MVP_QB + nfl_df$NY.A + nfl_df$Y.A

+ nfl_df$TO. + nfl_df$DEF_TO. + nfl_df$X1stPy + nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio +
nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt +
nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt )

summary(reg1)
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = nfl_df$points_per_game ~ nfl_df$MVP_QB + nfl_df$NY.A +
## nfl_df$Y.A + nfl_df$TO. + nfl_df$DEF_TO. + nfl_df$X1stPy +
## nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio +
nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt +
## nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -6.2956 -1.3269 0.0195 1.3111 6.1300
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept) -10.67337 2.48437 -4.296
## nfl_df$MVP_QB 2.94253 0.79087 3.721
## nfl_df$NY.A 3.71910 0.17775 20.924
## nfl_df$Y.A 2.08226 0.32909 6.327
## nfl_df$TO. -0.16468 0.04342 -3.793
## nfl_df$DEF_TO. 0.31498 0.04420 7.126
## nfl_df$X1stPy 0.07722 0.01758 4.394
## nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio 2.04322 0.59440 3.437
## nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt -0.50566 0.24095 -2.099
## nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt -0.52165 0.33138 -1.574
## Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 2.33e-05 ***
## nfl_df$MVP_QB 0.000236 ***
## nfl_df$NY.A < 2e-16 ***
## nfl_df$Y.A 8.72e-10 ***
## nfl_df$TO. 0.000179 ***
## nfl_df$DEF_TO. 7.27e-12 ***
## nfl_df$X1stPy 1.53e-05 ***
## nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio 0.000667 ***
## nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt 0.036662 *
## nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt 0.116466
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
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## Residual standard error: 2.191 on 310 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.7704, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7637
## F-statistic: 115.6 on 9 and 310 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

library(car)

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## Attaching package: 'car'

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## recode
library(MASS)

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## Attaching package: 'MASS'

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## select

vif(reg1)

## nfl_df$MVP_QB
## 1.139182
## nfl_df$NY.A
## 1.276680
## nfl_df$Y.A
## 1.323041
## nfl_df$TO.
## 1.288935
## nfl_df$DEF_TO.
## 1.233192
## nfl_df$X1stPy
## 1.150195
## nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio
## 1.565779
## nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt
## 1.474136
## nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt
## 1.208867

vif(reg1)

## nfl_df$MVP_QB
## 1.139182
## nfl_df$NY.A
## 1.276680
## nfl_df$Y.A
## 1.323041
## nfl_df$TO.
## 1.288935
## nfl_df$DEF_TO.
## 1.233192
## nfl_df$X1stPy
## 1.150195
## nfl_df$pass_to_rush_ratio
## 1.565779
## nfl_df$defense_pass_yards_allowed_per_attempt
## 1.474136
## nfl_df$defense_rush_yards_allowed_per_attempt
## 1.208867
# VIF scores of 10 indicate high risk of multicollinearity, and scores of 4
indicate that further investigation is needed. If an independent variable has
a VIF score of 1, it has no correlation with the other independent variables
in the model. Each of our variables is close to 1, with 1.6 being the
highest

# Source: https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat501/node/347